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Campaign Crawlers
Is the Ohio Trend Romney’s Friend?
The Republican campaign sees encouraging signs in the Buckeye State.
MARION, Ohio — Paul Ryan stood onstage Sunday evening and told a fired-up crowd of nearly 5,000 supporters, “As Ohio goes, so goes America.”
Few would argue with the Republican vice presidential candidate. Of the 11 states rated as “toss ups” by Real Clear Politics, none is more fiercely contested than the Buckeye State, whose 18 Electoral College votes appear destined to decide this election. And the latest poll, commissioned by a consortium of Ohio’s eight largest newspapers, shows the state a dead heat, with 49 percent each for GOP challenger Mitt Romney and President Obama. Perhaps more important, the poll conducted Oct. 18-23 by University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research, showed Romney has gained three points — and Obama has lost two points — since September, when Obama led 51-46 in Ohio.
This net five-point shift in the Ohio newspaper poll substantially mirrors a general trend, as Romney has improved his standing in the RCP average for the state by a net 3.5 points since Sept. 30. And while Obama still leads most Ohio polls (by an average 2.1 points), “The trendline is going in our direction,” senior Romney campaign adviser Kevin Madden said Sunday night during the rally at the Marion County Fairgrounds Coliseum.
Obama’s supposed advantages in Ohio have become a topic of discussion among political observers puzzled by a trend that shows Romney establishing a lead in national polls of likely voters— including his 50-46 lead in the Gallup tracking poll published Sunday — and yet persistently trailing Obama in Ohio. “How plausible is it that a guy who’s now below 47 percent in RCP’s national average is going to win a state that famously tracks with national sentiment each cycle?” asked the conservative blogger known as Allahpundit, adding that Obama is “getting hammered nationally with independents, especially on the core issue of the economy, and yet somehow he’s two points ahead overall in the ultimate bellwether? Really?”
While pundits puzzled over the poll data, Ohioans turned out in droves to see Romney and Ryan here Sunday night. An hour before the rally at the fairgrounds was scheduled to begin, traffic was backed up for blocks in every direction, and more than a thousand people were lined up in the cold October rain awaiting their turn to pass through the metal detectors. Shortly before the candidates took the stage, Marion fire marshal Mike Makowski told me that he estimated 4,700 people were packed inside the venue, and more were still standing in line at the doors. The crowd was entertained by legendary country music group The Oak Ridge Boys, and also heard a dire analysis of their community’s economic woes by a local Chamber of Commerce official who pointed out that 24 percent of Marion County residents are now on food stamps.
Marion County is steadily Republican, going for President Bush over Democrat John Kerry by an 18-point margin in 2004, but the GOP margin was cut to 8 points in 2008, when John McCain got 53 percent to 45 percent for Obama — and lost Ohio by more than a quarter million votes . To win Ohio next Tuesday, Romney will need to pile up a big advantage in GOP-leaning areas like this. Judging from the size and enthusiasm of Sunday’s crowd here, Romney is well-positioned to win. The audience laughed when Romney mocked the Obama administration’s economic sloganeering. “They’re going to go forward — more like forewarned, if you ask me,” he said. Romney referenced the negative attacks from the Obama campaign and said, ”Paul Ryan and I can handle the attacks for nine more days, but the country can’t handle four more years.” The crowd began chanting: “Nine more days! Nine more days!”
Turning out the vote is the crucial task of those nine days, and Romney’s aide Madden praised the assistance of the Republican National Committee in building the “infrastructure” to support campaign operations in Ohio and other battleground states. “We feel great about our ground game,” Madden said. “We put a lot of effort into it.” He said that the Romney campaign’s “ground game” is now “as good as, if not better than” the fabled get-out-the-vote organization built by the Obama campaign. And it is now only eight more days until we learn how Ohio, and America will, will go.
About the Author
Robert Stacy McCain is co-author (with Lynn Vincent) of Donkey Cons: Sex, Crime, and Corruption in the Democratic Party (Nelson Current). He blogs at The Other McCain.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (35) | Leave a comment
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Von Mises Jr| 10.29.12 @ 6:26AM
Obama finally announced his second term platform. He said he will let the Bush rates expire and welcome sequestration. Here is what it means to you:
• Bush tax rates and brackets sunset, resulting in $4,269 additional Federal Income Tax starting 2013 for a family with Adjusted Gross Income of $70,000. (A rate increase from 10% to 15% is NOT a 5% increase of your taxes. It is a 50% increase.)
• ObamaCare Tax for Employers with over 50 employees is $2,000 per employee if they fail to provide the approved coverage. If your employer drops your coverage and you fail to buy the mandated coverage, you are fined 1% to 2.5% of your income from 2014 to 2016. At $100,000 family income, your employer is fined $4,000 for a husband and wife each earning $50K and the family pays $1,000 escalating to $2,500 for failure to insure by 2016.
• One-trillion-plus dollar annual deficits will demand that America raise the Debt Ceiling in early 2013. The United States will face another Credit Rating Downgrade. The result will be higher interest payments on the National Debt and a subsequent reduction in services for security, infrastructure and social programs.
• Federal Reserve Policy of Quantitative Easing (QE3) buying $40 billion in Sub-prime mortgages per month will accelerate inflation. Coffee is risen 40%, Celery 28%, Butter 26% and Bacon and Cabbage 23% in recent one-year snapshot. QE3 will accelerate family food prices even faster.
Jack in Wi| 10.29.12 @ 7:36AM
Obama is and will continue to be a disaster, if re-elected. Will Romney be any better? Well hope springs eternal. Romney should be doing better the he is with the tough times we are having. Both sides are flooding Wi. with huge amounts of advertising and get out the votes efforts. Mitt and Ann are calling every day along with many others. I must be on the books as the Republican I am because I never get a call from the Democrats. They say Obama can't win if he does not carry Wi. I hope Romney carries this state. It is usually quite close but the Democrats often steal it in the inner city of Milwaukee and the university wards in Madison. That will be true and Phildelphia and Cleveland as well. Where the Democrats like to steal the states in inner city wards.
Moe Blotz| 10.29.12 @ 8:10AM
I will ring the Obama campaign and ask them to contact you, Jack. Just quit whining. Maybe some of the other TAS readers will ring Barry as well.
Occam's Tool| 10.29.12 @ 2:19PM
My wife registered as a Democrat to do Rush's evil bidding. Thus, we get yummy calls of frustration and desperation from the Obama campaign. Minnesota, folks, is IN PLAY.
Moe, sounds like an excellent idea for Jack.
vtwin| 10.29.12 @ 8:49AM
Why Obama will carry the State of Ohio.
On the positive side for Obama Ohio’s’ unemployment situation after Bush tanked the economy has improved to an even greater extent than the nation has overall leaving Romney with little chance of defeating Obama in the “Buckeye State” on the economy as an issue. Add to this, Ohio a state heavily dependent on the auto sector for jobs, Romney infamous opinion on the struggling automotive industry, “Let Detroit go bankrupt.”
Moe Blotz| 10.29.12 @ 9:16AM
Detroit went bankrupt, as did General Motors, and Mitt Romney had nowt to do with it. Trickle down poverty then hit Ohio. Your primary chain is loose and your clutch is slipping, vtwin.
vtwin| 10.29.12 @ 10:01AM
Rest assured that “Let Detroit go bankrupt” Romney and his friends at Pain Capital where and are disappointed with the bailout they would love to have profited by brokering a deal to ship some of these manufacturing companies to China as they have so many others. But became of a private-government-collaboration success story the Automobile industry is alive well and millions of Americans have jobs manufacturing cars and trucks and car and truck parts. And these employed Americans in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin … will be expressing their gratitude to the man most responsible for this success by voting for Obama.
buckeyeman| 10.29.12 @ 10:37AM
On June 11, 2009, General Motors filed for reorganization in the Manhattan, New York bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 of USC 363, the fourth largest bankruptcy in US history. The Obama administration guided GM through an unprecedented (and illegal) process which violated years of US bankruptcy precedents. I think what Romney meant was that GM should undergo an orderly and legal reorganization rather than the special interest Obama reorganization.
Alan| 10.29.12 @ 9:59AM
New poll out this morning R-50% and O 48% in Ohio.
vtwin| 10.29.12 @ 10:05AM
Obama is the 75% to 25% favorite to win Ohio.
spike59| 10.29.12 @ 10:52AM
still playing the Intrade game?????? how much did you win on their ObaMaoScare SCOTUS 'dead sure lock?' LMAO...or is it the Nate Silver "I want it so bad so i'll just make up something that looks the way i want" train that you're riding into oblivion????
OP4| 10.29.12 @ 10:11AM
Please remind me, what party had controlled Congress for 2 years before "Bush tanked the economy"?
vtwin| 10.29.12 @ 4:41PM
Again, the Bush as an empty suit defense.
Truth to Power| 10.29.12 @ 5:05PM
The big O as an empty suit is what we are focused on.
buckeyeman| 10.29.12 @ 10:25AM
"...after Bush tanked the economy..."
I know it's pointless to try to reason with you, but it's cold and blustery outside here in Ohio so I'll waste a couple of minutes to point out that the economy "tanked" as you put it, because of the collapse of the housing market bubble. This has all been well fleshed out, from Carter's Marxist, racist, Community Reinvestment Act, to Clinton's repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, to Clinton's AG, Janet Reno, threatening banks if they didn't make loans to minorities who couldn't afford them, to Mortgage Backed Securities and Collateralized Debt Obligations being packaged and resold (thanks to Clinton's repeal of Glass-Steagall) to fraudulent underwriting to Credit Default swaps which finally collapsed the banking system.
The feckless, Statist George Bush unsuccessfully urged Congress to address the problem but he certainly didn't cause the problem. Dems and Reps alike share the blame but the fundamental energy behind it is collectivism - share the wealth, redistribute wealth, and protect individuals and their institutions from risk. All Statist, collectivist practices which you love.
spike59| 10.29.12 @ 10:50AM
nice try, but not working...the ObaMaoSlide is turning out to be a VERY popular ride...in fact, he's lost ground in EVERY voting demographic vs his 2008 numbers...FL, NC, VA are all lost; MI, WI, CO, AND OH are falling into the Romney column, and even PA is in play; the ObaMaoLies are resonating only in the 'minds' of his most deluded acolytes, but the rest of the country is saying 'fooled us once, shame on you...'
vtwin| 10.29.12 @ 4:52PM
Of the states Obama carried last time ID, NC might be lost, FL and VA to close to call but even without these four states it is a Obama win 290 to 248.
Truth to Power| 10.29.12 @ 5:07PM
Your firewall is on fire. Incumbents stuck in the 40s shouldn't be optimistic. For you there are always West Wing reruns.
spike59| 10.30.12 @ 3:04PM
i'm guessing that it's easier for you to whistle past the graveyard after swigging so much ObaMao Kool-aid...but practice saying this: "President Romney"
Joellen| 10.29.12 @ 10:54AM
Then why were there over 5500 people on a Sunday afternoon to see the future President Romney and Vice President Ryan?
Btw, there is absolutely no positive side for Obama - he and his administration have blood on their hands for the death of American Heroes. You cant spin it vermin - it is what it is.
jothepro| 10.29.12 @ 9:24AM
Are the calls from anti-Semite republicans Jack?
DTOM| 10.29.12 @ 10:04AM
COME ON!
Is anyone surprised that ten days before the election the media types are sponsoring polls that show dead heats everywhere?
What happens in battleground states, anyway?
Oh, yeah, both candidates spend millions on campaign spots - they spend millions on advertising with the very people paying for (and specifying the design of, and results from) the polls that increase their revenue.
If the Chicago Tribune had half a brain, they'd say that Obama's suburban support had evaporated and Obama might not carry Illinois! IF they had half a brain and they are from Illinois...
Gosh, this poll rigging-ad revenue generating deal almost sounds like the Democrats' union dues-Democrat campaign funding money-laundering scheme. It's the other half of it...
Oh yeah, but that's because the unions are all Democrats. Ooops, so are the media.
Damn are we screwed!!
The polls are full of it - Obama's going to lose in 8 days. Good riddance to him. And don't forget the bad rubbish!!!!
I look forward to the joke about the old guy who walks up to the gate at the White House every morning and tells the Marine on duty, "I want to talk to President Obama." To which the guard responds, "Sir, Barack Obama is not the President of the United States anymore." To which the old guy breaks out in a big grin, "Yeah, I know, but man, do I love hearing you say that!"
I can't wait. Get out and vote, dagratit.
DTOM
OP4| 10.29.12 @ 10:14AM
I'm sick of hearing about Ohio. It makes me sick how much federal government money has been poured into that state to try to buy it for Obama.
Screw you, Ohio. I think Romney will win either way. I hope Romney wins big while Ohio goes for Obama - then Romney and the Republicans will owe that crap state nothing and will treat them accordingly.
Alex Feltham | 10.29.12 @ 11:02AM
Romney's on course to win.
It's Russell Crowe that upsets me!
Can't a right-winger have just one actor to respect?
See "Et Tu Brute?" at:
http://john-moloney.blogspot.com/
Alan| 10.29.12 @ 11:45AM
Amazing that somebody that is an avid reader of history and a self-proclaimed bookworm like he is would be stupid or ignorant enough to endorse the Marx O' Muslim kenyan. Remember, he runs with the hollywood crowd, his peer group, so it shouldn't surprise that he mirrors their leftist utopian mental masterbating viewpoints.
John II| 10.29.12 @ 2:34PM
Doesn't surprise me. He's had some terrific roles, but Crowe's overrated as an actor. If you watch "Gladiator" closely, it's all camera angles and deft editing.
Sort of like the Professor. Our current President is a celebrity, and nothing else. So Crowe supports him. What's not to expect?
Occam's Tool| 10.29.12 @ 2:23PM
Alex Feltham:
the one Hollywood actor you can eternally respect is one of the three Greatest American film actors: Jimmy Stewart (the other two are Bogey and Fonda, both Leftists)---theat is, Brigadier General James Stewart, WWII bomber pilot and hero, Princeton Grad and Hawk. Of the current group, the one to respect is the great Jon Voight.
Occam's Tool| 10.29.12 @ 2:24PM
Sorry, "that is"
Occam's Tool| 10.29.12 @ 2:23PM
Crowe is also opposed to male circumcision, despite the obvious health benefits. In short, excellent actor and moral cretin.
John II| 10.29.12 @ 2:36PM
Scratch the "excellent actor" part, Occie. He strikes excellent poses, that's all. The rest is done by the technicians. See above.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 10.29.12 @ 7:44PM
I thought Crowe was a citizen of Australia, and therefore unable to vote in US elections (sorry, I forgot, foreign residents can vote in US elections, as long as they register as Democrats).
Oresteia| 10.29.12 @ 4:40PM
If you want to know why you should vote for Romney, or rather, against Obama, please go to the YouTube at this link http://www.nationalreview.com/media/video/331782
I came from the Soviet Bloc and can tell you that he speaks the truth.
Simon Templar| 10.29.12 @ 5:11PM
Oresteia,
I have seen this great testimonial from this great American. Thanks for sharing. Please blog here more often and please share your life story, your insights, and your views. I think we would like your perspective given your direct experiences.
Pecos Pete| 10.29.12 @ 5:16PM
Ditto.
Simon Templar| 10.29.12 @ 5:07PM
You have too see this...
http://landing.newsinc.com/sha.....D=23861234
He is losing Chicago blacks..the black community is waking up....
Perp, vtwin, and all the other libtard trolls...the people are waking up...