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At Large
Why Iran Wants to Talk to Us Now
Could it be alarm over the prospect of a President Romney?
On Saturday, the New York Times ran a story which stated unnamed officials with the Obama Administration had disclosed that Iran had agreed to direct talks with the United States over its nuclear program following next month’s presidential election. Within hours of this report both the White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry had denied the story.
However, for argument’s sake, let us suppose there are plans in the works for direct talks. What do the United States and Iran gain from entering into them? The United States, as represented by the Obama Administration, can make the case that sanctions policy against Iran have been working and now it wants to sit down and talk. Illinois Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told the Times, “This month of October, the currency in Iran has declined 40 percent in value. There is unrest in the streets of Tehran, and the leaders in Iran are feeling it. That’s exactly what we wanted the sanctions program to do.”
For Iran’s part, by agreeing to these talks, they give the appearance of being a rational actor amenable to compromise rather than the nation that wishes to build a nuclear bomb to wipe Israel off the map and for other nefarious purposes. Yet I don’t think the Mullahs are motivated by the implementation of sanctions.
Consider this paragraph in the initial Times article:
Iranian officials have insisted that the talks wait until after the presidential election, a senior administration official said, telling their American counterparts that they want to know with whom they would be negotiating.
What that tells me is that Iranian government officials have been paying attention to the presidential debates between President Obama and Mitt Romney and they see the writing on the wall. They believe Romney will be the next President of the United States.
Simply put the Iranians want an agreement in principle to talk with the Obama Administration after the election because they know what to expect from them. This is, after all, the administration that attempted to initiate “hot dog diplomacy.” Frankly, it did not work. This is also the administration that is carrying a soft stick. As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said last month with respect to Iran, “We’re not setting deadlines.”
The Iranian regime might believe America to be the Great Satan but the Obama Administration is the Devil they know. Iran knows it can obfuscate its way through talks with the Obama Administrations as it has with the EU3 (Germany, France, and the United Kingdom). Iran also knows the Obama Administration won’t stop them from building a nuclear weapon and using it. But Iran has no such assurances from Mitt Romney and if he is elected then all bets are off.
In other words, Iran fears Romney.
Why else would Iran want to know with whom they would be negotiating?
As I write this, the third and final debate between Obama and Romney is mere hours away and will be focused on foreign policy. There is no doubt there will be a great deal of discussion concerning Iran. Given how the Obama Administration has been less than forthcoming about the Benghazi attacks, President Obama will make every effort to convince the American voter that Romney’s policy on Iran would lead us into another war. Indeed, Obama’s aides have said the President plans to press Romney on this very question. It is an argument that could resonate with a critical mass of Americans who are weary after two long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq with little to show for it despite the Herculean efforts of our troops.
President Obama might very well say (as he has in the past) that Ronald Reagan negotiated with the Soviet Union. So if Reagan could negotiate with the Soviets then why can’t Romney negotiate with Iran? To which Romney could respond, “I hope you aren’t suggesting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the next Mikhail Gorbachev.” Romney could then remind the President that Gorbachev was a genuine reformer while Ahmadinejad saw fit to have his own people killed when they didn’t want him to remain in power following a fraudulent election. “By the way, Mr. President, that was an election in which you saw fit to say that America should not be seen as ‘meddling.’”
Romney could then go on to say, “I agree that talking is preferable to going to war. But talk can only be successful when both parties act in good faith. Can you name one thing the Iranians have done in good faith during your term in office? No? I didn’t think so. Besides Mr. President, what makes you think that Iran’s offer is anything more than a ruse which buys them more time to build a nuclear weapon?”
Can you say President Romney?
About the Author
Aaron Goldstein writes from Boston, Massachusetts.
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spike59| 10.23.12 @ 6:11AM
i keephearing from ObaMao and his surrogates that HE will not allow the Iranians to get a nuke; but i've yet to see any evidence that there is an one of the 'all options are on the table' that they are willing to actually employ beyond the 'crippling'sanctions that have not deterred the Iranian government one bit in their quest for nukes
John Navratil| 10.23.12 @ 6:34AM
Apparently the Iranians got not only their nuclear technology from North Korea, but their diplomatic style as well. Sometimes jaw-jaw leads to war-war.
A. C. Santore| 10.23.12 @ 10:56AM
North Korea came immediately to my mind, too.
60 years of talk without action! Unless by "action" you mean delaying and obfuscating by "negotiating."
How long now has Iran been doing it? How much longer will we allow it?
Appleby| 10.23.12 @ 6:48AM
Obama apparently doesn't realize or chooses to ignore the fact that the Iranians don't care two flips for their own people, even less than the North Koreans do; they are willing to sacrifice every single Iranian in order to get that bomb on line and bring on the 12th Imam and the Glorious Appearing (according to their own religion). If they think about the people at all, they believe the people agree with this plan. Satan promises people that they will have what they want -- anybody who read Milton instead of Marx, or Dante, or Luke 4, would pick this up. And people who are delusional, who are always told how wonderful they are and how knowledgeable and brilliant, will fall for Satan's blandishments in a heartbeat...because he wants that to be true. Grown ups and people who read know it isn't.
Von Mises Jr| 10.23.12 @ 9:03AM
Apparently the leaks from the White House persist. It is illogical and inconceivable that the MSM would come up with this on their own accord. So it again illustrates that the regime is utilizing the MSM in a Nazi or Stalinist fashion for propaganda.
Is anyone else freaking sick and tired of the lies? I know I sure am.
goldminor| 10.24.12 @ 11:22PM
double speak= 1984 redefine words, allow for new meaning, self fulfilling questions
JP| 10.23.12 @ 9:18AM
"Why Iran Wants to Talk to Us Now?"
Aaron, you hit the nail on the head. But, if the mullahs were watching last night's debates I wonder if they shook their heads in collective confusion. They may ask themselves how increasing teacher's salaries had anything to do with Mideast Polciy? And they are probably now dispatching agents to Afghanistan to see if in fact the Marines and Army still use bayonets. We do know that the Green Beret still use horses. Just ask the Taliban.
Stormy| 10.23.12 @ 9:22AM
When it comes to negotiating with the U.S. over nuclear proliferation, Iran has read and memorized the North Korea playbook.
Gary B| 10.23.12 @ 1:24PM
The title of that playbook is "Promise Them Anything, Then Do What You Want."
All a practitioner of kick the can wants is an excuse to kick the can. A hollow promise from a pack of lying bastards is good enough. It has worked with both foreign and domestic policy for decades. Perhaps the Tea Party can help fix that.
Gary B| 10.23.12 @ 11:27AM
"In other words, Iran fears Romney." More generally, Iran fears dealing with an adult. Obama, the gift that keeps on giving, is going bye, bye.
cicero| 10.23.12 @ 11:35AM
There is no easy answer here. Obama is clearly out of his deapth, and the main stream media keeps cheering him on, as a perent would a toddler. Romney is entering a box, if he wins, as every adult knows that Iran will only be deterred if its capabilities are destroyed. This would be a good time to go back and reread "The Gathering Storm", by Sir Winston. Everyone knows what's coming, but nobody wants to admit it.
There is war on the horizon. It will start in the Middle East, and move north into the 'Stans, and Russia. Europe will not be spared. The only thing that will save civilization is that the Islamic armies are obsolete, and will be destoryed, after the spilling of much blood.
Russia will be able to withstand the attack, as she is still relatively well armed. Europe will have to rearm on the fly, or be given free weaponry by the U.S. through Nato. America can stay on the sidelines, but probably will not. It will be bloody, and probably short.
KennesawJack| 10.23.12 @ 11:41AM
Cicero, you can make book on it. This will Obamarx's legacy of appeasement. I know, as a nation, we've thoroughly pi**ed God off from time to time but did we really deserve this Marxist, Muslim, Stalin-wanna-be as penance? Bit much, I'd say.
Al Adab| 10.23.12 @ 4:09PM
It depends Jack, on how He feels about our idolotrous worship of the false gods and goddess Choice, Tolerance, Gaia, Diversity et al. Possibility exists we have been weighed in the balance and found wanting. After all, while a remnant will survive, He judges the nations.
JP| 10.23.12 @ 1:03PM
Unfortunately Russia has a dearth of young fit men who can fight. Each year the lights go out in over 1000 Russian villages on account of there being no one alive to inhabit them.
Skippy| 10.23.12 @ 4:54PM
I have heard that 75% of Russian pregnancies end in a State-funded and promoted abortion.
I have also heard that the abandoning of villages is rampant in Germany as well.
When a nation outsources their day-to-day chores to a resident class of anti-Western immigrants, and then fails to breed to match the growth of their imported laborers, the outcome is simple to predict.
For a nation with tens of millions of youngish men with zero chance of ever finding a mate, and a govt. bent on domination of all things, look to China.
It is their rifles we will likely be facing across the frozen plain.
John Navratil| 10.23.12 @ 1:44PM
cicero,
You are so correct. It began thirty years ago and is just getting to the tipping point. Will it be today, tomorrow, next week? Who knows, but it is inevitable.
KennesawJack| 10.23.12 @ 11:50AM
Aaron, in a nutshell, the Iranians know that short of using a nuke, Israel can do them no harm and they also know that Israel is very unlikely to do so. Couple that with Obamarx getting re-elected and the Iranians have an unencumbered path to the bomb. Obamarx isn't going to stop them and he isn't going to help Israel stop them. They think that by dangling this carrot they may be able to influence the election to the extent that Obamarx gets re-elected. They are fearful of Romney. They believe, and I think corrrectly so, that Romney will give Israel everything it needs to effect a massive strike that will set Iran's nuclear program back years. Romny won't use our military but he'll da*n sure do a "lend-lease" with a few B-2's, F-117's and some bunker busters. That's why they want to talk AFTER the election.
Occam's Tool| 10.23.12 @ 12:07PM
They fear the Fist.
Al Adab| 10.23.12 @ 1:03PM
It is not necessarily that they fear a change of administration, it is rather that they can use "talks" as a delaying tactic to prevent action against them while they finish up their enrichment program and construct their weapon. Remember, it need not be deliverable by missle when a fishing boat or truck or container ship will do.
Seek| 10.23.12 @ 1:31PM
The ultimate weapon of Muslims is their religion and the wombs of their women to breed future adherents. Our ultimate weapon, then, must be birth control. In the meantime, we should prepare for a military storm, even if it's an absolute last resort.
JmsA| 10.23.12 @ 5:10PM
Seek: 69%
cicero| 10.23.12 @ 2:02PM
Watch for Iran to exert more and more influence in Iraq, and the rest of the territory from Jordan to the Atlantic ocean. Their surrogates are very active in sub=Saharan Africa, and will continue to encroach and conquer areas not defended militarily. At that point, they will have the numbers to push north. Only forceful resistance will stop them. If history rhymes, there will be a confrontation between the Sunni and Shia, but it probably will not stop the movement. One or the other will gain ascendancy, and lead the push.
The West does not have the will to stop them from consolidating Africa and the Middle East east through Afghanistan, and north through the Muslim stans. The only question is timing, and how long it will take. Isreal is doomed unless she uses her nuclear capabilities. No one will go to her rescue. The West will sit bye and wring its hands, but that is about all. We never learn.
KennesawJack| 10.23.12 @ 2:33PM
Cicero, there is a much, much older animus between the Persians and Arabs and that will eventually trump that of the Sunni and Shia.
cicero| 10.23.12 @ 2:42PM
Jack - The key work here is "eventually". So far, the mullahs have got the Arabs to allow Hezbollah and their other surrogates a free hand, and have cooperated with them. I think they are operating on the assumption that they can all wage jihad on the same side, until they have conquered the lands they are set on. At that point, there will be an inter Islamic fight for dominance. Not much has changed since the 10th century. However, that will not mean much confort for thee conquered non-muslim peoples.
goldminor| 10.24.12 @ 11:11PM
A change in the presidency will be of concern for them> However a thought just popped up when I saw your headline. Syria has just signaled that they are willing to go for a ceasefire. Is it possible that these two policy changes are intertwined? I could well imagine that Assad might start to hedge his bet on his long term viability, especially in light of seeing that which comes after losing in these types of situations. Perhaps he wants or needs a breather to restructure his attack/defense positions. This could be a time for the two nations to plot their next move.