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Campaign Crawlers
‘Preference Cascade’
Has the decisive shift toward Mitt Romney already happened?
Public-opinion polls are lagging indicators in politics. By the time a shift in the trend becomes clear from poll data, the causes of the shift are days or weeks in the past. It is therefore unwise to extrapolate the current trend forward or to begin thinking of polls as supernatural prophecies that predict future events.
With all those caveats in mind, however, Mitt Romney enters the final two weeks of the presidential campaign looking very much like the next president of the United States, and it is not merely poll data that creates this impression. President Obama’s own campaign has begun to emit clear signals that the incumbent’s re-election prospects are dwindling, and anecdotal evidence of strong Republican momentum is not hard to find these days. We cannot predict what will happen in tonight’s third and final presidential debate (9 p.m. ET at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida), but it is a fairly safe guess it won’t have the game-changing impact of the first debate on Oct. 3, one of two apparent pivot points that triggered Obama’s downward slide. While the impact of Romney’s one-sided victory over a listless Obama in Denver has been universally acknowledged, it would be wrong to overlook the political effect of the other pivot point, the Sept. 11 terrorist attack in Benghazi that killed the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans.
The Benghazi attack appears to have started slowly sapping Obama’s support in late September. On the day of the attack, Obama was leading the Real Clear Politics national poll average by 3.6 points (49.0 to 45.4) and in the immediate aftermath of the attack Obama actually expanded his lead. By Sept. 29, Obama led the RCP average by 4.6 points (48.9-44.3), nearly equal to his 4.7-point lead on Aug. 12, which was the largest advantage Obama had held since Romney effectively locked up the GOP nomination in April. From Sept. 29 to Oct. 3, however, Romney closed the gap by 1.6 points, a fairly significant shift in a four-day span. This shift happened after the Obama administration’s original explanation of what happened in Libya — as a “spontaneous” reaction to an obscure YouTube video about Islam — began unraveling.
On Sept. 17, U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice made the rounds of the Sunday news shows to claim the deadly assault on the Benghazi consulate “was a spontaneous — not a premeditated — response to what had transpired in Cairo… in reaction to this very offensive video that was disseminated,” as she told Jake Tapper on ABC’s This Week. Within a few days, however, stories began to emerge about Ambassador Christopher Stevens’ concerns that he was on an “al-Qaeda hit list,” and a series of attacks and threats against U.S. diplomats in Libya. Yet in his Sept. 25 speech at the United Nations, Obama had mentioned the YouTube video six times, as if the original explanation of the Benghazi attack were still credible.
Thus, the president was already faced with a widening “credibility gap” before the Oct. 3 debate, where Romney finally achieved the key goal of his campaign: Establishing himself as a plausible and acceptable alternative to Obama. It was during that 90 minutes that Team Obama’s entire strategy of the 2012 campaign was shattered. By hammering Romney early with attack ads in May and June, when the president’s campaign still enjoyed a one-sided cash advantage, Obama’s strategists had hoped to present voters with a choice — demonizing Romney as unacceptable — and prevent the election being seen as a referendum on Obama’s performance. This “choice vs. referendum” battle had been recognized by both sides as the crucial dynamic of the race, and the first debate meeting shattered the Obama campaign’s message. The national TV audience of millions had a chance to see Romney as a reasonable and well-informed leader, rather than as the out-of-touch extremist portrayed to them by both the national media and the Obama campaign.
Suddenly, everything was different, and nothing that has happened since — including the more aggressive performances by Joe Biden in the vice-presidential debate and Obama in his second debate meeting with Romney — has changed the impact of that breakthrough moment for the Republican challenger. The latest polls (including the Gallup tracking poll released Sunday that showed Romney with a 52-45 lead) clearly indicate that the tide has turned against Obama and, with barely two weeks remaining until Election Day, it may already be too late to reverse it.
There is a term for what has apparently happened, a phrase coined 15 years ago by economist Timur Kuran and recently popularized by Professor Glenn Reynolds: “Preference cascade.” We do not yet know whether this term accurately reflects the sudden shift of opinion against Obama and in favor of Romney; polls can zigzag erratically back and forth, whereas a genuine “preference cascade” is one-sided and irreversible. Democrats are abuzz with talk of an “October surprise,” hoping that Obama can miraculously recover from his three-week slide, and unexpected events could still turn the polls around.
However, Republicans are increasingly confident and Democrats are increasingly discouraged, and not just because of the polls. Veteran political analyst Michael Barone observes that the Obama campaign’s Electoral College “firewall” appears to be collapsing. While the Democrats seem to have given up on North Carolina and perhaps even Florida, the Republicans are now expanding their own ambitions to include Pennsylvania. And over the weekend, it was reported that the RNC has an 18-to-1 campaign cash advantage over the DNC.
If Romney were indeed riding the momentum produced by a decisive “preference cascade,” such signs are exactly what we might expect to see. However, Professor Reynolds has also popularized another phrase Republicans should also keep in mind: “Don’t get cocky.”
About the Author
Robert Stacy McCain is co-author (with Lynn Vincent) of Donkey Cons: Sex, Crime, and Corruption in the Democratic Party (Nelson Current). He blogs at The Other McCain.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (82) | Leave a comment
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janetd| 10.22.12 @ 6:55AM
The author nailed it on the head. While I never seriously considered re-electing Obama with my vote, I think the biggest shifts in public opinion away from Obama and toward Romney were the result of that Denver debate and what happened in Benghazi. On the first day Obama took office I remember telling my husband that notwithstanding the worse economic nightmare that Obama would bring, mark my words his downfall will be his foreign policy. God willing, it appears that just might happen. As a woman, I know the media thinks abortion and contraception are my gender's issues, and while the economy and jobs are the numer one issue for me, the Libyan embassy debacle was the final nail in the coffin as far as I'm concerned. It was an event that just encapsulated from start to finish what Obama is all about.
Von Mises Jr| 10.22.12 @ 7:37AM
I suspect that it is a confluence of the cascade of lies.
Over the last few weeks, we had the magical BLS pull a 7.8% unemployment rate out of their posteriors. They tell us "don't believe your lying eyes." Only sixty-three percent of the people are accounted for in the job market and 15% of them are unemployed or underemployed. No matter how much lipstick you put on this pig, about one in two people in the country have work.
While I am not a woman, I do the grocery shopping and cook (chicken, sausage and shrimp gumbo yesterday). Vegetables have gone up 25% in the last year. I can't afford my rib-eyes unless I buy a side of beef and butcher them.
Then our Ambassador gets killed on 911 and the regime blames it on a freaking video. If you successfully raised any children, Janet, and they think you will buy that nonsense, they must really think women are stupid.
The cascade of lies has just become too fantastic for even fools to suffer. Others are catching up with us, Janet.
John Navratil| 10.22.12 @ 8:05AM
Von Mises Jr,
In the December 31, 2009 print issue of The National Review was printed a series entitled "The Progressives". It chronicled the rise of Progressivism through Richard Ely, John Dewey, Oliver Wendell Holmes and Herbert Croly. I reread it over the weekend and have asked NRO to republish it in time for the election.
Croly's principal belief was the society needed to be reordered around associations of businessmen, farmers and wage earners guided by the intellectuals. He distrusted business as being motivated by cash. The final few sentences in the article on Herbert Croly were prescient.
"Recently, American liberals saddled with the failures of big-government social policies have returned to the old nomenclature, calling themselves "progresives." And, like Croly himself, they have a weakness for hero worhip but are fickle in their allegiances. Their newest hero, Barack Obama, promised the impossible, and he too is headed for the shoals. American liberals, having run out of name changes, are likely to end up stranded on the same sand bank: Whether they know it or not, they remain in thrall to Cloly's ideas and excesses, endlessly repeating his errors."
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 9:26AM
I would submit to Mr. Vampire Complexion that Obama has had a Credibility Gap since Day 1. The same can be said for RCP, Politico, and any other Polls, coming from anywhere that isn't named: Rasmussen.
Short of a Massive Stroke caused by Multiple Aneurisms happening simultaneously, I don't see how this Debate doesn't Drive the Final Stake through this Creature's heart.
Under the Military Leadership of The Black Messiah, Evil is on the march, EVERYWHERE.
Russia's open Hostility and Contempt for this Country is Palpable. Soon to become Dangerous.
China is openly Threatening War with Japan, and Vietnam, and anyone else who dares lay claim to any piece of land that China wants.
Wh'd you rather be, right now? An ally of America? Or, the opposite? How'd you like to be Taiwan? How'd you like to be The Falklands? Georgia? Poland? The Czechs and the Slovaks?
How'd you like to be one of our Allies in South America, right now, surrounded by Clones of the obviously Mentally Challenged (Hurry up and Die, already) Hugo Chavez, as well as the Real One, down there in Venezuela, with Putin's d*ck in his mouth?
Bob Shitfferbrains will do all he can to keep President Death to America, afloat. He will hit this Dead Prez Walking with the Paddles, over and over again, until he blows out a Circuit Breaker.
The Charge of the Light Brigade, comes to mind.
Jacob McCandles| 10.22.12 @ 10:30AM
Bad news for the Romney campaign- Chavez, Ahmadinejad and Putin have officially endorsed Hussein.
You are right on with Russia. Putin is a snake in the grass waiting for his chance to hurt us.
Von Mises Jr| 10.22.12 @ 10:39AM
Obama has already secretly surrendered to all three nations. He will have "more flexibility" to settle the terms of surrender "after the election.
SUBVET| 10.22.12 @ 11:07AM
Tim..............my brother I say LANDSLIDE
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 12:30PM
I'm inclined to agree.
The Private Sector Unions that rely on The Energy Sector for their Livelihoods, I predict, will make that happen. As well as all of the folks who work in all of the Ancillary Buisinesses that support those Operations, such as Restaurants, Hotels, Bars, Bowling Alleys, Liquor Stores, and so on.
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 12:32PM
p.s. - Are you wearing any of the other shirts? Or are you pretty much wearing that Waterboarding Shirt to Bed, and in the Shower?
SUBVET| 10.22.12 @ 12:50PM
Church..............Sat night ......they just look at me and shake their head.
They know if they mess with me I'll stop writing the checks.
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 2:24PM
Saturday night?
So, you're wearing it to Bingo.
Is that what you're saying?
SUBVET| 10.22.12 @ 6:57PM
No offence to the Cathoilic's our Christian Church meets on Sat. nights and 3 times on Sunday.
And no bingo.............in place of bingo we hold life groups during the week.
I would trade a life group anyday for bingo..........
Jack........your still on my prayer list.....since I can't get you to stop drinking that cool-aid.
Occam's Tool| 10.22.12 @ 2:24PM
RCP has Romney ahead in the Electoral College at this time.
irish19| 10.22.12 @ 3:01PM
And wasn't that a great thing to see since it's based on averages including the DNC push polls.
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 5:25PM
That's like having Media Matters come out and say the Romney's ahead.
SUBVET| 10.22.12 @ 6:59PM
LANDSLIDE......I say....LANDSLIDE
Tonight the "truth will set us free".
CrackerHound| 10.22.12 @ 10:08AM
To compund the insult of lying to the American people, the crux of the lie was that an intolerant America was to blame for the attack...not hateful Islamists.
What I have wanted to know from the start is WHO was responsible for finding that video and offering it as the excuse. The mobs protesting all over the Middle East didn't even know about the video until team Obama introduced it. So basically we have the President using anti-American propaganda to incite Islamic mobs in the wake of a terror attack on an American Embassy. Never thought I'd see the day.
If you really want to go conspiratorial...Who is really responsible for making the video and why was it made?
Von Mises Jr| 10.22.12 @ 10:37AM
Liberals are always scheming and planning their next assault from their back pockets or in an office desk. This is where the ObamaCare and Dodd Frank Bills came from in a flash.
Think about it, CrackerHound. They stumbled upon Bush "Wide Receiver" and schemed how to change it into an assault on the Second Amendment.
They had this video waiting for an opportunity to blame any terror on a right-wing Christian like Romney. They were touting this tactic for months.
I submit that the speech writers put the "Acts of Terror" reference in the Rose Garden speech to return to it later to conflate and confound those not paying close attention. Watch Obama in the debate as he almost has an orgasm when Mitt takes the socialist propaganda bait.
This is why moral; G0d fearing people have difficulty grasping the twisted minds of liberal/socialist. I have simply had the distinct displeasure of spending half-century among these scum bags and know them like my glorious naked body, as Rush would say.
Alan Third Party Voter Brooks | 10.22.12 @ 3:54PM
I'm not going to wait for tonights debate because even if Obama wins the election, he will be a lame duck-- being loyal to him is being a backer of a pugilist who is half-conscious before he gets to step into the ring.
But I will not vote for Romney, someone who is as weasely as Bill Clinton ever was. I'll largely ignore politics until Romney leaves office; luckily Romney has Ryan to keep him from saying really embarassing things such as:
"we're all in this together"
'being gay or straight doesn't matter to the GOP"
"the color of youir skin is no factor"
Pony| 10.22.12 @ 9:41AM
I am afraid of the "unrest" that will follow Romney's election. Will there be riots?
Louis Jenkins| 10.22.12 @ 9:53AM
Pony:
Let them riot! Let them move to Canada! You should not worry about the towel heads, the entitlement critters, the peace niks, the demonstrators. What is right will prevail. If not in Nov. then the future. Riots are the least of our problems.
Appleby| 10.23.12 @ 7:06AM
Don't send them to Canada. There are enough of them up here already.
Alej| 10.22.12 @ 10:31AM
"Will there be riots?"
I hope so.
America has needed an enema for sixty years.
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 12:34PM
It does seem like it's getting to be Water the Tree of Liberty time.
The Reverend Billy C. Calhoun| 10.22.12 @ 2:37PM
Well, I told my wife that I would put my vote in the hands of Jesus, and I did.
I prayed about it real hard for a couple of days, and I finally heard the voice of Jesus say, "Vote for Obama." He said it right out loud.
If you will just turn your vote over to Jesus, I think you will vote the Democratic ticket.
Have a blessed day.
chuck| 10.22.12 @ 8:50PM
So Jesus told you to vote for the Christian-hating, Jew-hating, baby-killing Muslim?
What have you been smoking?
SteelerJim| 10.22.12 @ 9:15PM
You need an Exorcist. If you believe that the Lord supports the party of the unfettered slaughtering of innocent babies you are being deceived.
Cobalt| 10.22.12 @ 4:30PM
5.56 mm, and no lock plates.
Drunken Sailor| 10.22.12 @ 10:33AM
Riots may only last a few days, then like every other thing they do, they will lose interest and move on.
Alan Third Party Voter Brooks | 10.22.12 @ 3:57PM
Exactly. For once, in a lifetime, we agree; there will be no riots in fact-- as you of course know-- Romney will do okay.. but government will not be reduced because everyone save for die-hard libertopians think their own families deserve whatever they can get from the State.
The era of small government ended 9/12/01.
Oresteia| 10.22.12 @ 10:03PM
“As a woman…” The ugliness of this Administration is going well beyond offending a woman; it is offensive to human beings all over the world. We moved here from Europe and were never enamored with the lengthy, demagoguery-replete presidential campaigns. However, as long as the candidate was a person caring for his country, I managed to block out the unpleasantness of the process. This POTUS, however, has campaigned from the moment he stepped into the WH. He has damaged the economy of the country, probably beyond repair, and his foreign policies have brought the world to the brink of WWIII. However, the worst feature-- by far-- of his presidency, has been the complete polarization of this nation.
Jack in Wi| 10.22.12 @ 7:09AM
Romney should win but 2 weeks is a long time. The polling is too close to be landslide. Whoever gets the vote out will win. It is very close in this state. I get calls from Romney's campaign and from pollsters every day. I just hang up because I am sick of it all. Nov. 6th can't come soon enough.
CrackerHound| 10.22.12 @ 10:17AM
[[["Whoever gets the vote out will win"]]]
Well is there any doubt whatsoever who that will be? I mean, come on...If that's the case (and it well could be) the election truly is over.
I am of the mind that this WILL be a blowout of epic proportions.
SUBVET| 10.22.12 @ 11:10AM
Jack.............your still on my prayer list.
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 12:35PM
You mean your Sh*t List, don't ya?
RCV| 10.22.12 @ 1:05PM
The result will depend on the ground game. My prediction is the same as its been since summer: reverse of Bush/Gore. Romney wins popular vote; Obama reelected in electoral edge. GOP suddenly less enamored with electoral college. TAS blames "the media" and unspecified "voter fraud".
John Navratil| 10.22.12 @ 2:38PM
RCV,
Yours is a very plausible outcome for the vote. However, there isn't a great deal of support for direct democracy among the right.
As to voter fraud... How do you explain Elijah Cummings behaviour with True The Vote? I particularly liked Cummings writing to Engelbrecht on Oversight Committee letterhead demanding documents when he cannot speak, personally, for the committee and has no personal subpoena power. Engelbrecht responded by saying that he could send anyone he liked to their training to be a poll watcher.
Do you think having international observers is fine? Do you have a problem with citizen observers? Would you agree that if there is no voter fraud, then the poll watcher is simply wasting his or her time. Is this oppression? I'm sure you realize that a poll watcher is not permitted to interact with any voter and may only speak to an election judge on pain of being ejected from the poll. How does this compare to members of the NBPP dressed in black, with night sticks, outside a Philadelphia polling place? How, in light of the 177 CONVICTIONS (as of August) for voter fraud in the Coleman/Franken race - a race decided by 312 votes, do you remain so dismissive of voter fraud as an issue?
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 5:28PM
Why do you even bother with that Douchebag?
I'm deducting 10 Points from your Linda Lovelace analogy, this Friday.
Seriously.
John Navratil| 10.22.12 @ 5:57PM
I bother with RCV because, despite the fact that he is wrong (IMHO), he is civil and generally doesn't fling ad hominems about with wild abandon. Further, RCV assembles facts in support of a conclusion instead of letting the facts make all of what passes for an argument. He does appear irredeemable, but unlike Purp and London he will answer a question posed to him and doesn't simply respond with another question.
I have given up on the others. I'm reminded of Heinlein's aphorism: "Never try to teach a pig to sing, it wastes your time and annoys the pig." However, it doesn't seem to even to that.
RCV| 10.22.12 @ 5:57PM
I strongly support having poll watchers at every polling place, for a number of reasons. (I was a poll watcher and voting rights monitor myself in Columbus, Ohio on election day 2008. I also served in that capacity for several primary elections and caucuses, including in East Texas, where we had a lot of real irregularities to deal with - black voters being directed to non-existent caucus sites, caucuses starting hours late, after discouraged voters had already left.)
So long as poll watchers do not interfere with or interact with voters, it's always good to have them. And anyone who engages in voter fraud or voter intimidation, whether they're Black Panthers or the GOP registrars in Florida and Virginia who created false registrations for nonexistent Republican voters, and threw hundreds of completed real Democratic registrations in the trash, ought to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
John Navratil| 10.22.12 @ 8:41PM
RCV,
Once again, we agree! Now, please send some money to http://www.truethevote.org/
RCV| 10.23.12 @ 12:07AM
Cant spare it. I'm sending all my excess cash to Michelle Bachmann's opponent, who's now only a point or two behind her in the polls.
AhiaBoy| 10.23.12 @ 7:41AM
Jack, you didn't seem to learn much when your own state's recall was "too close to call."
Ted R.| 10.22.12 @ 7:27AM
As a unequivocal supporter of the president, I'm confident we're going to win, again. An electoral majority is just not going to vote for a cut-out like Romney. Americans just aren't that stupid. I find it hilarious - and sad - how you people are praising Romney to the rafters, when months ago you couldn't stand him. That's no candidate to trust, let alone vote for. Romney is a liar. I'm going with the man who didn't have a single scandal in his presidency: Barack Hussein Obama.
chuck| 10.22.12 @ 7:47AM
Except:
Fast and Furious, leading to the deaths of hundreds or thousands of Mexicans, and at least 2 US agents.
Solyndra, and all the other stimulus money that went to company owner who were large campaign contributors.
Lying to the American people about what happened in Libya.
And the economy still sucks, he's lying about unemployment numbers, he killed energy production on Federally owned land, 47 million people are on food stamps,.........
Yea, go vote for him you ass, you obviously are one of the 47%, and you want to stay there, sucking off the producers of this country.
Have you no respect for yourself?
Pecos Pete| 10.22.12 @ 7:49AM
end sarc/>
Pecos Pete| 10.22.12 @ 8:43AM
OOPS> above in reply to Ted R.
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 9:32AM
Maybe you should be phrasing all of these in the form of Show Tunes?
You look out of your element this morning.
end sarc/>?
Why do I think that you just activated a Sleeper Agent?
I'm telling the Colonel.
Bob Grant| 10.22.12 @ 9:40AM
Why the constant reference to show tunes?
Sweeney Todd much?
Pecos Pete| 10.22.12 @ 9:45AM
Ah, first cup of coffee and all that, you know? Besides, the Colonel knows that, while I am a slow starter, I finish hard. Oh my, that doesn't sound right. No offense meant.
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 5:29PM
Dear Colonel mike 3/505.........................................
Albert Constantine Jr.| 10.22.12 @ 8:46AM
"Have you no respect for yourself?"
Clearly, as your list begins to indicate, he has no respect for the truth.
I would have used a different phrase besides "sucking off" the describe the parisitical relationship you describe, not so much because of any objectionable image, but because one can imagine a scenario where with that phraseology, the producers are deriving a perceived benefit.Perhaps "leeching off" more accurately describes the process you cite.
TLP| 10.22.12 @ 10:00AM
See? Just what I told everyone, yesterday.
If you go back and look at the Transcript, you will clearly find in my comment on chuck's Entry yesterday, where I clearly stated that I thought that he must have had help with his Bob Newhart analogy. Possibly from his brother chuck, and his other brother chuck, because "have you ever SEEN chuck's comments"?
I did that. I said those very words, yesterday. And, as you can see, chuck has wasted no time in his efforts to Validate everything I wrote about him, yesterday.
God Bless'im.
If had any Prizes laying around, I would Snail Mail him one, pronto.
chuck| 10.22.12 @ 4:28PM
Too bad, but if you find any prizes(especially that last remaining shred of Hillary's dignity, as long as it's not covered in Bill's DNA), the three of us would really appreciate it.
John Navratil| 10.22.12 @ 8:06AM
Ted R.
Guffaw!
jothepro| 10.22.12 @ 8:47AM
Hey Teddy, when you pull your head out of your ass or from the ground, or wherever you keep it when you are not drinking the kool-aid, just remember this........Our wonderful country is headed for hell if The One gets re-elected. Kinda sounds like a place you would like....
Nancy in NC| 10.22.12 @ 8:48AM
Romney was not my first choice, but compared to the liar in chief, he's a prince.
Tom Kyba| 10.22.12 @ 10:53AM
It's hilarious and sad that regulars here have mostly settled on Romney, despite reservations, and you call yourself an unequivocal backer of Obama? No scandals? Obviously you are not serious and merely wish to needle the posters here. I find it sad and not at all hilarious.
junkyard infidel| 10.22.12 @ 12:12PM
tard r says, "Americans just aren't that stupid." and then proves just how stupid he is by saying, "Romney is a liar. I'm going with the man who didn't have a single scandal in his presidency: Barack Hussein Obama." now that's hi-larious !
Pecos Pete| 10.22.12 @ 7:49AM
end sarc/>
Pecos Pete| 10.22.12 @ 7:50AM
OOPS> above in reply to Ted R.
gene| 10.22.12 @ 9:59AM
I like people like Ted R. and others like Chris Matthews. They are the best thing to happen to the Republicans. Every time they speak they win more and more votes for Conservatives. I am even beginning to think that Matthews is a "secret" closet Republican who is determined to see Pres. Obama fail. No one could be that inept and clueless on purpose.
Bob Grant| 10.22.12 @ 9:20AM
As the Wolf stated so eloquently in Pulp Fiction:
" Let's not start ******* each other's ***** quite yet!"
Think ACORN!
Think VOTER FRAUD!
Think BLACK PANTHERS GUARDING POLLING STATIONS!
We need to make sure the voter turnout trumps the democratic shenanigans that are sure come.
Al Adab| 10.22.12 @ 9:25AM
Interesting that Ted uses "cut out" to describe Romney when this president is clearly the empty suit.
That said, any electoral shift has occurred as of today. Whether it is wide enough and deep enough and in the necessary states remains to be seen. All too many voters are willing to maintain the status quo and believe in Hope evidence to the contrary.
Bob Grant| 10.22.12 @ 9:31AM
Al Adab,
On a positive note, the democratic party is running out of money.
How will the Obama Phone ("keep obama in president") people get to the polls?
They don't have the initiative to make arrangements on their own to get to the polls. In '08 there was a bus waiting for them.
No money, no bus!
John Navratil| 10.22.12 @ 10:22AM
Bob Grant,
An argument for high fuel prices through election day if I ever heard one ;)
Bob Grant| 10.22.12 @ 6:23PM
He has a solution for that.
By executive order citizens will be able to cast their vote via their "Obama phown" ...at least "certain" citizens.
- Obama Phown, keep Obama 'in' president!!!
CrackerHound| 10.22.12 @ 10:27AM
Most of the type of people you are referring to consider moral support just as good as actual voting...sort of like rooting for a sports team. So when you ask them who they are voting for, in actuality, they feel they have just cast their vote when they answer Obama.
You will never see anyone more "busy" than a chronically unemployed welfare recipient. They are always too "busy" to do things like vote, mow their grass, clean the house. etc.
Bob Grant| 10.22.12 @ 6:26PM
How 'bout we keep 'em busy 'til November 7th?
JimP| 10.22.12 @ 9:31AM
IMHO, it is a mistake to put any credibility into the polls showing a "preference cascade". It appears to be a convergence of events to me. This is the time the polls typically begin to tighten up when a Democrat incumbent POTUS, who has fouled up everything [is that redundant?], is running for re-election. Don't take my word for it, just ask Rush Limbaugh. He knows and has been saying so for years and years. The evidence proves he's correct. We know that polls have been oversampling/over representing Democrats because their modeling depends on assumptions of percentage of turn out etc. We know now that political polling is very much like AGW computer modeling. Garbage in and garbage out. Make the wrong or biased assumptions/guesstimates and you get inaccurate, misleading 'data'. The Benghazi attack and what followed, and Romney's debate performance along with Obama's 'no show' certainly have added to the size of the tsunami that was already headed for shore.
Louis Jenkins| 10.22.12 @ 10:04AM
The Libyia episode has shown that Obama is in over his pointy little head. A decent president would have known the truth, the cause of our ambassador's death, with an hour of the first shell dropping. The 3 am call came and went, and found Obama sleeping in his bed. He woke up, and went down the path of a lie, one of so many that has been passed as the truth. Truly this episode has put a nail in the coffin of the president's bid for re-election. Another tail to an absymal middle-eastern policy that is full of American dead. How many more dead men Obama will you use to pave your streets of lying GOLD for America?
Who Knows?| 10.22.12 @ 10:04AM
Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.
What is the history of polls? Which ones were the best and which ones the worst?
Then again, national polls are close to irrelevant. GIGO. When you aggregate the wildly Democratic states of Calif. and NY with the other 48, the word is—meaningless.
It’s the outcome in the swing states that matters. What do the historically BEST polls predict in them---that’s the real question.
Now, Real Clear Politics TRIES to make sense of polling, with its average of all the polls. Again---GIGO.
Another thing---when I read about 1.6%, I automatically both shake my head at the miniscule number---.6%!!!---and shake in fear that anyone seriously believes this noise.
The other poll that has as good a predictive record, or better, than the gold standard, Rasmussen, is the “smart money” Intrade betting site. It still has Obama at 62%, and it’s been steady at over 60% for quite a while.
It doesn’t mean Obama will win, but a whole lot of people think so. In 100 bettors, 62 go for BHO and only 38 for Mitt---as of today.
At TAS, of course, and on the right, including the salient Limbaugh, poll reading and big crowds have led to massive certainty that Romney will win.
I HOPE SO!
Dom| 10.22.12 @ 7:26PM
I would guess that more liberals are gamblers than conservatives, so that might explain the Intrade numbers. I think it has little to do with the outcome.
obadiah| 10.23.12 @ 1:57PM
intrade is moving, day by day. last I looked it was 58-42. if I were a betting man, I would have invested in Romney not very long ago when he could be bought for 30 or so.
chriser| 10.22.12 @ 10:14AM
If Romney does win (and "Don't get cocky" is good advice), one big question I have is what will Obama do in the 10 weeks between Nov. 6 and inauguration day? I fear we may be facing a lot more than missing "w" keys on the white house computers!
CrackerHound| 10.22.12 @ 11:35AM
If Obama does win, it will be intersting times in America to say the least...and not in a good way. That much is certain. I think the Soros/Alinsky types will have been given the keys to hell and they will unlock the gates.
Your suffering will be of little consequence to them, only the agenda will matter. This is the last shot they have to implement their plans and they will go all in and there will be plenty of collateral damage. We had best be prepared.
Pecos Pete| 10.22.12 @ 12:04PM
chriser: Good question and one I have posted several times here and in other forums. Can we spell Executive Orders?
PJ| 10.22.12 @ 10:47AM
Another reason that sealed, locked, & cemented my vote for Romney: Chavez, Putin, & Castro endorse Obama.
spike59| 10.22.12 @ 4:08PM
...not to mention, "Honey Boo Boo"
Dave Williams| 10.22.12 @ 11:09AM
Our only HOPE is that we have the guts to make a CHANGE. GO MITT!!!
Oldefarte| 10.22.12 @ 11:10AM
I ceratinly hope [and pray] that RSM's theory is on target. I only know for certainty that beyond myself here, TLP obviously/historically GETS IT. Sadly though, two out of millions simply won't CUT IT, and unless a majority of others WAKE UP and become UNSTUPID, this nation is headed for the same ending as was Thelma & Louise after 11/6/12 if it makes the wrong choice once again [as on 11/4/08]. Has TLP's TRUTH [and agreed to always by myself] sunk in enough to others here to make the needed difference? We'll find out on this November's election day. Once again please remember that Romney's winning alone will not be enough to accompolish the needed tasks, but instead a sizable majority must be gained by Republican victories in the US Senate. If the Democrats maintain even a large numbered minority within same, they can effectively tie up and throttle any/all efforts futuristically put forward by Romney/Ryan to right this nation's ship. Anyone caring about this country must counsel their friends etc to simply pull in entirety their respective Republican political ticket on the ballot on 11/6/12 in order to avoid the radical Democrats from continuing their liberal destruction of this nation!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PolishKnight| 10.22.12 @ 1:57PM
To quote The Wolf from Pulp Fiction: "Let's not suck each others' ***** just yet." Remember the SC Obamacare decision upset this last summer? I didn't see it coming. Truman beat Dewey. The left, to their credit, is about snatching victory from the jaws of defeat because winning in politics is ALL that matters to them. Everything else: Their claimed goals such as helping the poor, environmentalism, etc. are all secondary fluff to give them a warm, cozy feeling to their ruthless notion of superiority.
No doubt at this moment they're doing their best to steal as many votes as they can and lawyering up to "find" others after the fact if they need them (hello Al Franken!)