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The Campaign Spectator
Romney-Ryan Galluping to November
The void in the heart of the Obama campaign.
Governor Mitt Romney’s amazing performance in the first presidential debate continues to propel him upwards in the polls. Indeed, the former Massachusetts Governor is Gallup-ing towards election day.
Gallup’s polling of 2,700 likely voters from October 10th through 16th reveals a 7-point lead for Romney, 45 percent to 51 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The Republican-friendly Rasmussen poll has Romney up by 2 points, and the RealClearPolitics on line average of all polls to date gives him with a one-point lead.
It is possible that President Obama may yet reap some benefit from the second debate, but Romney certainly has the Big Mo on his side which is energizing volunteers, donors, and party regulars throughout the nation. In my home state of Missouri, which, in modern times, has always gone with the winner, except for Stevenson over Eisenhower, once, and McCain over Obama in 2008, is siding with the Republican candidate by over 7 points (7.7 percent).
In my two adopted states of Virginia, where Romney is within less than a point of Obama (0.8 percent), and Michigan, in which Romney is now only 4.2 points down, things are moving in the right direction and fast. In my wife’s home state of Wisconsin, Governor Romney is, incredibly, within 2 percentage points. Thinking back on Governor Scott Walker’s amazing victory in his recall election, Romney will have the benefit of an outstanding voter turnout organization still in place.
Pennsylvania, previously on no pundit’s radar, is getting very interesting with Romney closing to within 5 points of the President. North Carolina and Florida have moved, decisively into the Republican column. Even Ohio, still a challenge for the Republicans, appears to lean to the President by only 2.4 points, again, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
The Obama campaign now faces several serious problems. First, its unremitting barrage of negative, personal, ad hominen attacks on Mitt Romney and all his works has failed, having been rendered totally irrelevant by the Republican candidate’s masterful performance in the first debate. All the money, all that television time, all that political capital employed in that base pursuit of character assassination is now kaput. The American people saw Mitt Romney, the human being, and pronounced the Obama agitprop a lie.
The failure of the Obama campaign’s personal attack strategy is related to their second problem. They really cannot defend the indefensible condition of the American economy, its lack of vitality and jobs and the massive debt as evidenced in four straight federal budget deficits of a trillion dollars each.
Besides these two problems, there is also the total dearth of new ideas or forward (excuse the term) thinking about an Obama administration’s second term. More of the same? That is not exactly a winning formula. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum. The Chicago crowd, having nothing to fill the void, must now stand by and watch Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan Gallup their way to Election Day on a platform of growth and opportunity.
The void in the heart of the Obama campaign was in evidence in the vice-presidential debate in which Vice President Biden tried to substitute theatrical mime and bombast for reasoned debate with Congressman Ryan, who came prepared for a serious discussion about the daunting challenges facing America. It was truly a spectacle unbecoming a senior citizen like Joe Biden who was spared the withering critique from the media, members of which readily confessed on air they liked the guy.
Joe Biden’s misrepresentation of Catholic moral and social teaching along with his apologia for the Obama administration’s antipathy to religious freedom and the Catholic community was offensive in the extreme. His characterization of Obama Supreme Court appointees as “open-minded” on matters such as abortion was laughable.
Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are mounted up and riding to the sound of the guns in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado. The prospects for ultimate victory have never looked better.
About the Author
G. Tracy Mehan, III served at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the administrations of both Presidents Bush. He is a consultant in Arlington, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at George Mason University School of Law.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (29) | Leave a comment
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spike59| 10.19.12 @ 6:34AM
what has to freak out the ObaMao camp is that, after theire idiotic screeching that 'likely votes' matter less than 'registered voters', Rmoney lead either way...ObaMao is polling lower numbers, vs 2008, in EVERY voting demographic...with the exception of the MSM
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 10.19.12 @ 5:45PM
Ryan-Romney, not vice versa; Ryan is the one who stands for something-- anything-- not Romney. However Romney is brighter than Bush and perhaps even more confident (not that Bush wasn't confident). So Romney will do 'okay'. Yet I thought you guys wanted more than merely okay, I thought you wanted excellence.
This in in fact an era of diminished expectations if you praise Reagan to the skies but settle for Bush+. That's what Romney is: Bush+. Is this some sort of Everyman deal?: thousands of first-rate conservatives (or Rightists) in America-- a very conservative estimate would be hundreds-- but you for the fifth time since 1988 settle for 'okay'?
axbucxdu| 10.20.12 @ 9:18AM
Tis possible that Romney can excel, Al - he has at least demonstrated some mastery of arithmetic. Otherwise, your commentary is right on+
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 10.21.12 @ 7:32PM
the fifth time since 1988:
Bush 41 (second-rate)
Dole (third-rate)
Bush 43 (second-rate)
McCain (third-rate)
Romney (he might turn out to be first-rate; who can say at this time?)
spike59| 10.22.12 @ 5:55AM
Romney (he might turn out to be first-rate; who can say at this time?)
================================
compared to the incompetent boob currently disgracing the Oval Office?????? 5th or 6th rate would be an improvement over ObaMao
chuck| 10.19.12 @ 7:03AM
Romney in a landslide, winning 40-45 states. Every swing state goes Romney, including PA, WI, and MI.
TLP| 10.19.12 @ 9:42AM
I'm looking at a Column from Yesterday, entitled - Looking At Tunisia.
Did you know that they have Contests in Tunisia?
It's true.
You should check it out.
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 10.19.12 @ 5:47PM
If Ryan should die in office, Romney becomes president.
Controse| 10.21.12 @ 1:51AM
Whatsamatter didn't mommy ever say you were cute. That would be one reason you mostly just try for cute here. Mommy probably didn't say because, well, you're not cute.
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 10.21.12 @ 7:36PM
Whatsamatter didn't mommy ever say you were cute. That would be one reason you mostly just try for cute here. Mommy probably didn't say because, well, you're not cute."
You are correct about me-- for once you pegged me just so-- anyhow I might be as wrong about Romney as I was about Reagan in 1980:
the fifth time since 1988:
Bush 41 (second-rate)
Dole (third-rate)
Bush 43 (second-rate)
McCain (third-rate)
Romney (he might turn out to be first-rate; who can say at this time?)
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 10.21.12 @ 7:37PM
... so it might be four, not five.
spike59| 10.22.12 @ 5:56AM
You are correct about me-- for once you pegged me just so-- anyhow I might be as wrong about Romney as I was about Reagan in 1980:
=================================
I'm guessing that being wrong is something to which you've grown accustomed
SteelerJim| 10.20.12 @ 1:39PM
Stand up Chuck, you are absolutely correct. Romney in a landslide. Watch CT folks. I would not be suprised if Romney/Ryan gets CT. Keep Praying!!!!!
Appleby| 10.19.12 @ 7:16AM
My theory is that even Satan is tired of Obama and his troop of screeching Kids. Think of it as Toto pulling aside the curtain and revealing that Oz the Great and Terrible is just a guy augmented by technology to look like he knows what he's doing.
The one unfortunate result of this whole rush to install A Black in this position is the same result that followed the rush to put A Woman in positions of responsibility back in the 1970s -- the spectacular failure of The One is going to handicap the next generation of aspirants, because the people in charge are going to say, "We tried that and it didn't work" and it'll take another 10 years before any Black candidate can overcome the undeniable failure of the last one.
Stephie| 10.19.12 @ 8:52AM
I don't agree with you on this one. If Condi Rice or Allen West stepped up, we wouldn't think anything of the sort. Either of those two black Americans are more than competent and ready to lead.
TLP| 10.19.12 @ 9:45AM
I'm looking at a Column from Yesterday, entitled - Looking At Tunisia.
Did you know that they have Contests in Tunisia?
It's true.
You should check it out, and Hurry. Someone told me that Joellen was over there Scoffing at the idea that any of the other Gals could defeat her in a Contest, on this site. Not even Alan Brooks.
Alej| 10.19.12 @ 10:01AM
Stephie, I agree on the competency, more or less, but "lead" in which direction ? I can't help but think of my own naivety in thinking I'd have voted for Colin Powell had he chosen to run for president back when that was being bandied about as a possibility. Right at the end, he ran up his true colors.
I think fifty or seventy years will have to pass before "America" is thought to supercede "ethnic loyalty" in the minds of voters. Of course, given birthrates in the various demographics, that may not be a consideration by then anyway.
Glad I won't be around to watch my country dissolve.
Rhoetus| 10.21.12 @ 1:02AM
Obama's public persona is just as phony as Simone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S1m0ne
except his core values are pure Frank Marshall Davis.
Controse| 10.21.12 @ 1:53AM
We chose a charming lazy thief. They come in all colors.
Glen H| 10.19.12 @ 7:35AM
The governor of Wisconsin is Scott Walker, not Scott Brown.
G. Tracy Mehan, III| 10.19.12 @ 8:17AM
Good catch on the Governor of Wisconsin. We will make the corrections. My Wisconsin in-laws will never forgive me otherwise. GTM
The Big E| 10.19.12 @ 8:32AM
After the Iowa caucaus I came to the conclusions that a Romney nomination equalled and Obama re-election. I just didn't think Romney had what it took to take down the Idiot in Chief.
I was wrong. It's looking more and more like a Republican landslide is brewing. Thank God! I've wanted to be wrong more in my life!
Von Mises Jr| 10.19.12 @ 10:38AM
As far as I know, the samples are still heavily slanted toward liberals. The samples a few weeks ago had Democrats typically about plus nine. The outlier of Obama McLame in 2008 was not even plus nine Democrats.
Republican registration is about four percent higher than Democrat, I believe. The enthusiasm gap for Obama 2008 was plus 20 and now we see Republican plus 16.
Notice that the polls are tightening? This is because the Democrat pollsters have a reputation to try and uphold so they tell the truth nearer to the election.
Statistics can be used to prove just about anything with improper criteria and samples. If I throw a dinner party for five heterosexual couples, I can prove almost beyond a shadow of a doubt that on average everyone has one testicle and one breast.
PolishKnight| 10.19.12 @ 2:23PM
Read the transcripts of the charity dinner last night. Romney WANTS to win. Look at the language in the closing remarks:
Romney:
"I don't presume to have all your support and on a night like this, I'm certainly not going ask for it, but you can be certain that in the great causes of compassion that you come together to embrace that I stand proudly with you as an ally and friend."
Obama:
"we may have different political perspectives, but I think, in fact I'm certain, that we share the hope that the next four years will reflect the same decency, and the same willingness to come together for a higher purpose that are on display this evening. May we all, in the words of Al Smith, "Do our full duty as citizens." God bless you, God bless your families, and may God bless the United States of America. Thank you very much."
Romney says he didn't ask for it, but as we all know, he just did. He wants their support and he showed it. He was campaigning last night. Obama wasn't and based upon his debate performances, I wonder if his heart is in the game.
CJW| 10.19.12 @ 3:55PM
Obama won several of his Illinois races because the first opponent was forced out or dropped out. In 2008 McCain did not show up. This is the first time Obama has to fight. He cannot handle it primarily because he has a lousy record and is used to having it given to him.
Occam's Tool| 10.19.12 @ 5:32PM
Minnesota may go Romney. There's that wonderful 13th round in the Marciano-Wolcott fight where the Brockton Blockbuster, behind on points and not supposedly as smooth as Wolcott, hits Wolcott with one punch and Wolcott goes down "smooth and boneless like flour down a chute."
Note that Obama is having his election night party in Chicago in a place difficult for the public to access and easy to leave. I think he knows the horrible truth.
Controse| 10.21.12 @ 2:05AM
What? No Grant Park? Would it be against the law to have a searchlight equipped helicopter escort him home blasting the "HA ha" made famous by the bully on the Simpons over and over again? Oh wait it wouldn't matter if it is against the law. We're talking Obama, or whoever he is, here. He takes disrespect for the law with him wherever he goes. Obama, or whoever he is, and disrespect for the law are always found together.
Tafuna| 10.19.12 @ 7:37PM
A poll in Pennsylvania now has Romney up 4 points. The RearClearPolitics poll averages too many way off Democrat biased polls to be accurate. So discount it.
It will be a landslide. Even here in Hawaii I think Romney has a chance. The Democrat Senate candidate "Crazy" Hirono is trying to link the Republican candidate Linda Lingle to Romney as if that's something bad-- and it appears to be backfiring as Obama is frankly not all that popular here any longer.
TruSkeptik| 10.20.12 @ 6:31AM
Romney's performance would only appear to be "amazing" to someone who really doesn't understand how deeply talented he is. This is a guy who knows how to win, as opposed to a third rater who knows only how to spin. Amazing? I wouldn't have expected any less from Romney. I would strongly suggest you keep your eye on this fellow, he may just turn out to be one of the best this country ever produced.