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Campaign Crawlers
Obama’s Hope Fades in Virginia
Republicans seek to score a decisive win in the Old Dominion.
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Virginia — The Romney-Ryan “Victory Center” here is on Highway 29 a few miles north of the University of Virginia campus, and the phone-banking operation Wednesday night was in full swing. More than 15,000 calls are made per week from the campaign office that covers not only Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle County, but also a 10-county area of north-central Virginia. Most of the volunteers in the office Wednesday were UVA College Republicans, who have already made more than 60,000 calls as part of a get-out-the-vote effort aimed at maximizing the GOP vote in this area, not only to help Mitt Romney win Virginia, but also to help elect George Allen to the U.S. Senate.
The director of the Charlottesville office is Nick O’Boyle, a slim 22-year-old who graduated from George Mason University this spring — an awfully young fellow to be trusted with such a large responsibility. Much depends upon the labors of O’Boyle and other eager young Republicans across the Commonwealth, whose work may help determine the fate of the nation. Virginia is one of the 11 battleground states in this year’s presidential election currently rated a “toss-up” by Real Clear Politics, and it may well be that as Virginia goes, so goes the country. Polls close in Virginia at 7 p.m. — one of the first battlegrounds to report on Election Night — and if the GOP can win the state by enough of a margin that the networks call it early for Romney, that encouraging news may have a ripple effect westward in Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada.
Not long ago, this hopeful prospect might have seemed impossible for even the most optimistic Republican to imagine. As recently as Oct. 2, a Roanoke College poll reported President Obama leading by 8 points in Virginia, but in the past two weeks, the Old Dominion has shifted sharply toward the GOP challenger. Romney has led five of the seven most recent polls and, although the RCP average for Virginia still shows Obama with razor-thin lead, the Republicans here sense a strong enough momentum to carry them to victory on Nov. 6.
Anyone driving through this part of the state would notice the proliferation of yard signs for Romney, his running mate Paul Ryan and Allen’s Senate campaign, while signs for Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and the Democrat Senate hopeful, Tim Kaine, are surprisingly rare. Albemarle County is anchored by the liberal enclave at the UVA campus — where the faculty probably has more Marxists than Republicans — and thus leans toward Democrats at election time. Even in 2004, a high-water year for the GOP, Democrat John Kerry eked out a 51-48 percent win in this county over President Bush, who carried Virginia 54-46 percent. But what happened here in 2008 — when Obama became the first Democrat to win Virginia since Lyndon Johnson did it in 1964 — was a wipeout that crushed Republicans. Boosted by student enthusiasm, Obama won Albemarle County by a 19-point margin, with some 7,000 more votes than Kerry got in 2004, part of a statewide wave that helped the Democrat win Virginia by more than 200,000 votes, 53-47 percent.
This year, however, the shiny newness that made Obama such a historical phenomenon four years ago has worn off, as Hope and Change have given way to economic stagnation and political gridlock. Nearly all the excitement now — in Virginia, as across the country — is on the Republican side and, with less than three weeks remaining until Election Day, it appears unlikely the Obama campaign can close the “enthusiasm gap” that has broken wide open since Romney’s decisive win in the first debate. Although the grassroots core of the Democratic Party was somewhat encouraged by Biden’s performance in last week’s vice-presidential debate and Obama’s showing in Tuesday’s town-hall debate, neither of those seemed to have the impact of Romney’s stunning Oct. 3 breakthrough. The Gallup tracking poll released Wednesday showed Romney surging to a six-point lead nationally — with the GOP challenger clearing the critical 50-percent threshold — and there are now clear indicators that even Obama’s campaign leadership knows the president’s re-election chances are dwindling.
The Democrats are evidently shrinking their Electoral College map, in what looks like a defensive “triage” strategy to win just enough states to hold on to the White House. Team Obama already appears to have written off North Carolina, which the president narrowly won in 2008, but which he hasn’t visited since the Democratic convention in Charlotte early last month. In a remarkable interview with National Journal’s Major Garrett, top Obama strategist David Plouffe suggested that the Democrat is prepared to fall back to a last-ditch defense of just four battleground states — Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire — that would provide enough of an Electoral College cushion for Obama to squeak past to re-election. That would mean ceding not only North Carolina but also Colorado, Florida, and Virginia to Romney, and might permit the Republican turnout operation to maximize its margins in those states without the battering “headwind” of Democrat attack ads. (Such ads, however, continue to run, and there is not yet any sign of a let-up in the Democrat ad blitz.)
However, with the final days of the election season now ticking away, the Romney campaign’s momentum continues, and events in Virginia may yet have nationwide impact. The front page of Thursday’s Washington Times features a story about how the Obama administration’s “war on coal” has thwarted plans by the tiny Appalachian town of Grundy to expand its airport. The hostile regulatory climate imposed by the president’s environmental agenda has been a steady theme of Romney’s stump speeches. The coal issue also resonates in Ohio, as well as Pennsylvania, which RCP likewise counts as a battleground state. Coal-industry advocates in Grundy are planning a rally Sunday, and their story could help dramatize the economic costs of the administration’s anti-coal policies.
It is too early to conclude that Romney is on a direct path to the White House. Professor Glenn Reynolds has repeatedly warned in moments of optimism, “Don’t get cocky.” Yet if the political landscape keeps tilting toward the GOP, the first harbinger of a Republican victory may come on Election Night when the networks make the call in Virginia.
About the Author
Robert Stacy McCain is co-author (with Lynn Vincent) of Donkey Cons: Sex, Crime, and Corruption in the Democratic Party (Nelson Current). He blogs at The Other McCain.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (57) | Leave a comment
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drudge ette obama| 10.18.12 @ 6:15AM
We have all been waiting for the day.
Aristocat| 10.18.12 @ 7:10AM
So proud of Romney...He has courage, he's a fighter, not a wimp like Boehner, McConnell, and McCain. He is fighting to save our nation.
Dai Alanye | 10.18.12 @ 12:13PM
Ah, another poor deluded soul. Sure, I'm voting for Romney, because what's our other choice? But let's not delude ourselves. No sooner does Mitt enter the oval office than our next battles will be to pull him rightward and stiffen his spine.
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 1:56PM
For starters: Real Clear Politics has Virginia as a Tossup State, even as all of the Polling Groups are all pulling out of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, because they say that these States are now, solidly in Romney's Column.
Go to RCP and you'll find that they have Obama in the lead in every one of those States.
Mr. I Need A Tan The Man McCain, is correct in factoring in the FACT that all of the COAL States, will repay President "Fck You if you Work in a Coal Mine", with a "Fck You" right back at him, come Election Night. Something I've been saying for weeks.
Romney will get Hundreds of Thousands of Blue Collar Union Members - ala Ronald Reagan in 1980 - because THEY WANNA WORK!
Every one of them who's had to Clip Coupons, for the last 4 Years, because President NO JOBS has Shut Down Drilling in the Gulf, up and down Both Coasts, and in Alaska, as well as Pissing Away the XL Pipeline at the request of his Big Money Environmental Donours.
Pipe Fitters, Excavators, Riggers, Welders, Carpenters, and Truckers. Plus all of the Support Jobs that go along with Drilling for Oil and Gas.
They've seen their Livelihoods Destroyed, for the Greater Glory of The One.
And, they're not gonna take it, anymore.
And, neither is anyone else, that's been Crushed under the Weight of His Majesty's Marxist Dogma.
Mark my words.
avafromtexas| 10.18.12 @ 3:42PM
You forgot millwrights. ;)
Joellen| 10.18.12 @ 4:19PM
Here's a list of more Americans who WANT to work: Waitressess/Waitors; Realtors; Title; Surveyors; Inspectors; Builders; Loan Officers; Bankers; Clerks; Handymen/Handywoman; Cleaners; Office Cleaners; Window Washers, Car salesmen; Car repairmen; etc.; etc. What this Dictator in Chief has done in the past 4 years, was to wipe out a generation of workers.
Well America is NOT Greece, Spain, etc. Most Americans do like to and want to EARN A LIVING. Get the Dictator out and we have a chance.
I live in a VERY BLUE state and drive many miles every day - I see more Romney/Ryan signs then I do Obama/Biteme Signs. In this state that's a good sign (pun intended).
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 4:51PM
Contest, Tomorrow.
It will be on the Entirety of the last 4 years, and this Election.
Look for the Clues.
Joellen| 10.18.12 @ 5:56PM
Roger that.
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 6:50PM
Good Girl.
Occam's Tool| 10.19.12 @ 12:25AM
Obama is starting to buy radio time here in MN, and Romney signs are starting to come out. I , myself, am going to a Lemon Meringue and Lemonade party on election night in honor of Mitt's sobriety and the sourness that Dhimmicrats will feel.
spike59| 10.18.12 @ 6:31AM
i saw something interesting last night; a posting on a social network by one of my daughter's classmates, here in Central VA, in a largely African-American majority county that went almost completely in the tank for ObaMao in 2008...a picture of him, an African American student, holding a sign that read: "if you're not voting for Romney, you're voting wrong"...while the majority of her classmates (she attends Maggiw Walker Governor's School) lean LiberalDemocrat, the presence of Conservatives on campus is greater than expected, and the conservatives are not shy about speaking their beliefs...if ObaMao is counting on coasting to a win in VA this time around, he's likely in for a rude awakening
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 4:52PM
Contest, Tomorrow.
It will be on the Entirety of the last 4 years, and this Election.
Look for the Clues.
drudge ette obama| 10.18.12 @ 6:32AM
Brave young woman - she'll probably be attacked.
spike59| 10.18.12 @ 3:06PM
i'm not too worried; she's learned how to throw a devastating punch in tae kwon do, and is an excellent shot as is her mom, dad, and sister; her sister also plays center and defensive tackle in football, and power forward in basketball
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 3:40PM
Contest, Tomorrow.
It will be on the Entirety of the last 4 years, and this Election.
Look for the Clues.
Kitty | 10.18.12 @ 6:41AM
HillBuzz reported that Team O will hold its election night 'event' at McCormick Place: "It’s isolated, remote, and pedestrian-unfriendly. The perfect place to discourage disappointed supporters from gathering with an easy escape route for Barack and Michelle to their Chicago home when it’s announced he will no longer be the president."
http://hillbuzz.org/daily-doom.....2-10182012
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 2:02PM
Kinda like the other Hitler's Bunker.
History is Fun.
avafromtexas| 10.18.12 @ 3:43PM
Kevin is really picky about who/what posts on his site. Gives me wonders about what that's all about.
Robert| 10.18.12 @ 3:47PM
My advice to the first couple: move the location of the wake to Hawaii so you can quickly escape to your $35,000,000 Prizker mansion.
Chicago might get a little hot at your Rezko spread as your supporters on the south side ignite The Chicago Fire II.
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 4:53PM
Hopefully, they'll be in it, at the time.
Von Mises Jr| 10.18.12 @ 7:16AM
If history does not repeat itself, it sure as hell rhymes.
Dick Morris likened the Obama Campaign to the Campaign most like it in recent times: Jimma Carter.
Not only did the Peanut Farmer (a community organizer of nuts) have a horrible economic record and an Islamic problem, but they made the same tactical mistake.
Jimma could not run on his record since it sucked almost as much as Barry's record. He failed to present a plan for the next four years. Instead, Mr. Planters Peanuts demonized Reagan as dangerous and unacceptable.
Then the debate came with cheerful Ronald Reagan impressing the viewers and giving perspective. "There you go again" was the 1980 version of pointing out lies. "Are you better off today than you were four years ago" is what Mitt keeps asking.
Now that people have seen the competent and polite but firm Romney, and they realize he is not an ogre.
So like peanut farmer, the communist agitators based their whole campaign on demonizing Mitt. Now people find they like Mitt. Oh shit, what to do now?
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 2:19PM
"Would you like to Play a Game?" (Hat Tip - War Games)
Let's compare the two Worst President's Records.
They've both overseen Economic Disasters.
They've both Presided over a Collapse in American Prestige in the world, and a Decimation of Our Military, in Weapons Systems, and Morale.
They both Screwed Up Afghanistan and had an American Ambassador Murdered by Islamists. Both turned their backs on a Dependable Arab Ally, and watched their Countries fall in to the hands of the Islamists.
They both Lost an American Helicopter in the Deserts of Iran. And the 2nd one has also Lost a Top Secret Drone.
They've both seen Gas Prices and Food Prices go through the Roof.
Unemployment go through the Roof.
People's worth, fall into the Toilet.
Home Prices, fall into the Toilet
They both did NOTHING as Russia flexed its muscles, around the world specifically, in South America.
And, they've both made this Country the Laughing Stock of the rest of the World.
And, that's just off the top of my head.
Occam's Tool| 10.19.12 @ 12:28AM
The two worst of the last 100 years, Tim. The worst of all time let the Civil War get started with the Union losing---James Buchanan.
Nancy in NC| 10.18.12 @ 7:41AM
We're not taking any chances in NC. Last night I was out hanging GOP packets on doorknobs of "reluctant" voters (those GOP people who didn't vote in the primary or 2010). GOP headquarters are packed with workers and folks BUYING Romney signs and registering to vote. Some military are registering in NC as they don't trust the absentee system in their home states. (I hope Obama isn't thinking he's got the military vote, because they despise him.)
It's too close for comfort, but I'm feeling there's hope. Now all we have to worry about is fraud or some other nefarious action.
Speaking of nefarious, I wouldn't put it past Obama to bomb Libya in the next few days. After all he will do whatever it takes (the end justifies the means) to seriously undermine the psyche of the American public.
I think we better hang on to our hats as it ain't over to the fat lady sings, and Obama may shoot the fat lady.
Alan| 10.18.12 @ 8:12AM
First off don't EVER think that the Media will call this one early for Romney no matter what happens in Virginia or anywhere else and potentially damage their god's chances in the midwest and west. Never going to happen.
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 2:23PM
You're gonna see a lot of Minority Populated Prescints being held open after 8pm.
After all..................
It takes time for everyone to Vote TWICE.
Sherlocktoo| 10.18.12 @ 8:40AM
The coal regions of the nation are solid Romney, even though many went with Obama in 2008. I have ask voters throughout appalachia who they are for. More than half of the Obama supporters of 2008, are voting for Romney in 2012, and I am yet to find McCain supporters who will vote for Obama. This region has a 3 to 1 ratio in favor of democrats, but Obama will lose all these states in the end. Even Pa. is now trending toward Romney, and the enthusiasm continues to rise. Ohio will overcome voter fraud to break Romney, as the democrat southeast region of the state goes big for Romney. And those coal regions (huge democrat registration advantage) of WV, Ky, and southwest Va will be all Romney. By election day, the enthusiasm for Romney/Ryan, will be a landslide of 1980 proportions.
Sjccoach| 10.18.12 @ 11:30AM
I live in Las Vegas. This is anecdotal evidence. As I drive around town Romney Ryan signs and bumperstickers outnumber Obama Biden signs and bumperstickers by approximately 8 to 1. Nevada may not be as close as it appears.
Rhoetus| 10.18.12 @ 9:44PM
The USSR was at its high water mark in 1979. Now Obama and the Muslim Brotherhood are. It's always darkest before dawn.
RichTex| 10.18.12 @ 12:10PM
The Romney campaign has been recruiting Texas Republicans to go to Virginia to do the grunt work of the campaign there. It seems to be paying off.
Cobalt| 10.18.12 @ 12:28PM
Bye bye Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
Colorado will go for Romney.
There is a good chance Romney will take Pennsylvania, if the rural areas can offset the city votes for Obama.
Crassus| 10.18.12 @ 1:33PM
Old Dominion voters seem to be flocking in droves to Romney. I bet there isn't an Obama sign between Roanoke and the Cumberland Gap, where Virginia begins.
Texas Sandman| 10.18.12 @ 1:56PM
Seems pretty clear Romney needs to concentrate on taking Ohio. If he does that & Obama writes off FL, NC, VA, CO, he wins. Right?!
On the other hand, Obama holds all those states he's concentrating on & Romney loses.
Rezzdog| 10.18.12 @ 2:09PM
Virginia is called Old Dominion, interesting, what was, or who was Virginia dominating?
spike59| 10.18.12 @ 3:17PM
LOL-the work in getting this nation going, mostly...do the names George Washington, James Madison, Thomas Jefferson, Patrick Henry, James Monroe, John Marshall, John Tyler, Nathanel Bacon, ring a bell????
DRA2012| 10.18.12 @ 4:52PM
We're called the "Old Dominion" because we remained loyal to the English Crown during the English Civil War. "Dominions" were Royal colonies. As you can imagine, things got a little rough around here after Cromwell and the Parliament's army won. A pair of British frigates came over here and "convinced" our governor it would be in Virginia's best interests to obey any new laws (and pay any new fees) that Parliament demanded. Fortunately, my own family's estates were far enough inland that we didn't suffer any losses from the naval gunfire. To this day, though, we Virginians have never gotten along too terribly well w/Marylanders (who were disloyal to the Crown) :-P
Namaste| 10.18.12 @ 2:21PM
Funny nobody is mentioning Virgil Goode here. He'll be the Ralph Nader for the Republican Party this year. Virgil Goode will take away votes from Romney in Virginia.
spike59| 10.18.12 @ 3:19PM
romney can spare the 20-30 votes Goode will win; ole virgil was a funny act for awhile, but he's yesterday's news
mzk| 10.18.12 @ 3:02PM
What frustrates me is that if hadn't been ofr the media hping the "macaca" incident, George Allen might well have been president instead of Obama.
My question is, if this doe sgo into th eHouse, how will it turn out? The house voting for president is by state, not member.
mcrusa| 10.18.12 @ 3:15PM
If Obama can hang on to OH, WI and NV, then Romney can have VA and all the other toss up states - it's simple math - on Nov 6th, we'll get our answer.
spike59| 10.18.12 @ 3:20PM
that's a big 'if'...OH and Wi are both in play and trending towards Romney
Kwan| 10.18.12 @ 3:34PM
For hard-core leftists Obama's statement about the fundamental transformation of the United States meant converting the country into a Totalitarian Socialist State like Venezuela, with Obama El-Presidente-for Life. But to the average Dumkoff Moron Obama's lies that he was going to improve the United States were actually believed, and they voted for him. So it's not surprising that when they can't find a job, or pull into a gas station and pay twice as much for gas as they did the day Obama was inaugurated, that they might decide to take Clint Eastwoods's advice and let Obama go.
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 3:42PM
Mr. Kwan.
Contest, Tomorrow.
It will be on the Entirety of the last 4 years, and this Election.
Look for the Clues.
PolishKnight| 10.18.12 @ 4:34PM
What I have fun with the leftists are that they don't even realize what they're doing anymore. They simply want to win elections, at all costs, without consideration for the direction they're going. Venezuela is a good example since demographics and the type of state they're creating is similar and most leftists don't want to live there. They like living in the Bay area or a Boston suburb and enjoying a standard of living that's nothing like that region. When I point this out to them, I get a "lalalala! I can't hear you!" reaction as they run away. In one case, a guy actually ran away from me.
Keep in mind that most of these leftists are dying out much like a shaker clan. The average Democrat voter is a welfare and race entitlement recipient. Most don't even know who Karl Marx was.
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 4:54PM
Contest, Tomorrow.
It will be on the Entirety of the last 4 years, and this Election.
Look for the Clues.
TLP| 10.18.12 @ 4:55PM
English!
Namaste| 10.18.12 @ 7:05PM
PolishKnight,
Do you even read what you type before submitting it?
HR| 10.18.12 @ 4:06PM
I certainly hope so!
I'm way down south in Hampton Roads, VA. While there are plenty of Obama 2012 stickers & signs in this area, I've noticed many for Romney/Ryan popping up just in the last couple of weeks. What do you think it means that the Romney/Ryan signs are usually much bigger? ;)
DRA2012| 10.18.12 @ 5:11PM
What surprises me is that NO ONE seems to be including in their calculations the effect that sequestrations are going to have on Virginia's economy, especially in the NN/HR/Portsmouth/Norfolk area. Due to Clinton's "WARN" law, there are going to be literally tens (if not HUNDREDS) of thousands of people getting pre-"pink slips" - that doesn't count the effects of the demobilization of a Carrier Strike Group or two! Those represent 10,000 officers and sailors each - what effect will it have when all of those people stop going to the local PX, and then the local PXs stop ordering stock refills from the local merchants? Does anyone really think that the soon-to-be-unemployed ship-fitters, welders, dock workers, and transportation workers are going to for vote for the administration that allowed this to happen?
spike59| 10.19.12 @ 5:43AM
not to mention all the military voters who oppose ObaMao by a 2-1 margin
Who Knows?| 10.18.12 @ 7:45PM
NEVER count your chickens before they hatch.
Intrade has Obama at 63% favored.
spike59| 10.19.12 @ 5:41AM
Intrade....the geniuses who predicted the SCOTUS would overturn ObaMaoScare...but keep grasping that thin reed; ObaMao is slipping, and has, in fact, lost ground vs 2008 in EVERY voting demographic...except the MSM
SUBVET| 10.18.12 @ 8:04PM
Who Konws..........you talk like a man with a paper as* hole.
Who Knows?| 10.18.12 @ 9:03PM
It's Who Knows, not Who Konws.
A paper as*hole--that's a new one for me.
You should go back to school, so you can at least learn to read and write.
SUBVET| 10.19.12 @ 9:07AM
you got the point dumb sh*t........
spike59| 10.19.12 @ 2:03PM
no, actually..'dumb sh*t' DIDN'T get the point; one of the drawbacks of being a dumb sh*t
Marco2| 10.18.12 @ 10:13PM
Well, it should be Who Konws. That can be the moniker attached to the next faux African affirmative action flop you clowns try to foist on us. A fond and expensive November 6th goodbye to you and your Intraders, it'll be great to see you go. By the way, will it be to Hawaii or North Korea?