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At Large
Russia’s Shadow Wars
Holy Makaraov! Is Russian national security blustering to be taken seriously?
The West in general and the United States in particular has had to endure a Russia during the Putin era that wants to be considered a first line global power while at the same time is unwilling to accept responsibility for any shortcomings. During the days of the Soviet Union, capitalism and the democratic nations that supported it were charged with being the source of all things negative affecting the USSR. The Cold War was very convenient for Moscow. The governmental structure may be different for Russia today, but the same culture of shifting responsibility exists.
In this regard high-ranking Russian civilian and military leaders can be useful political water-carriers — at least those that can be controlled. Russia’s V.V. Putin definitely wants to project a tough image at home and abroad and in General Nikolai I. Makarov he has a perfect messenger. An excellent example of this Chief of General Staff doing his job is his statement in reference to the reinvigorated plan to deploy U.S. missile defenses in Europe. “A decision to use destructive force preemptively will be taken if the situation worsens,” threatened the general. The question is not whether he is serious, but whether the U.S. is willing to test him.
Then there is Vladimir Putin: Putin very much would like Russia to have a feared military capability. Such a desire fits his personality, but also fits his nation’s post-WW2 outlook. The problem is that contemporary post-Soviet Russia cannot afford the military it would like to have in spite of its control of energy supplies for key portions of Western Europe. What it lacks is not merely the willingness (ability) to make the necessary financial commitments. It lacks the sizeable career officer (commissioned and non-commissioned) cadre necessary to maintain a large modern military’s trained and experienced personnel infrastructure.
To Putin’s credit, he has refused to sacrifice Russia’s civilian economy in order to build up his desired military. As much as Putin and his prime minister Dmitri Medvedev would like to abolish completely the nation’s draft of young men into military service, these now one-year conscripts provide the numbers — though not the quality — of personnel to fill out the designated active duty units. The regular professional soldiers, sailors, and airmen are recognized by Western military observers as ranging in capability from adequate to excellent. Unfortunately this does not ensure a unit performance level competitive with Russia’s Western counterparts nor those of the equivalent Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
In an attempt to make up for the lack of Russian tactical prowess — shown clearly during the brief war against Georgia — general officers and their civilian equivalents tend to seek to gain attention and credibility by making bellicose statements such as General Makarov’s. This verbal chest-thumping may fulfill the Kremlin’s and Russian military’s required propaganda stance, but it does little to aid their readiness posture. There are certain proclamations, however, that have brought more than a little reaction.
In June of this year the outspoken General Makarov announced in Helsinki at a joint defense meeting with high-ranking Finnish officers that he saw nothing worthwhile in Finland’s interest in NATO. In fact, he said, “…cooperation between Finland and NATO threatens Russia’s security.” He then went on to question the right of Finnish military units to hold maneuvers close to the Russian border. On a rhetorical roll he later stated that the entire concept of a Nordic defense cooperation agreement including Sweden was a potential threat to Russia. Not unexpectedly the Finnish defense minister described Makarov’s comments as “out of touch with reality.” The minister’s remarks off the record were not so diplomatic.
The bottom line for the Russian defense structure is the fact that it no longer has a readily available enemy land force to either threaten or defend against. Large numbers of Russian infantry and tanks are not needed to protect Russia’s eastern or western reaches. In the contemporary strategic world it is the nuclear-armed Russian navy and air force along with missiles of every range that are the true heirs of Peter the Great’s historic forces. And in more modern times there can be no comparison between the dynamic Marshal Georgy Zhukov of World War II and General Makarov of today — no matter the latter’s posturing.
Makarov and his boss, Vladimir Putin, still firmly believe in the Cold War guide of having a powerful enemy against whom Russia can rant. Peaceful competition just doesn’t seem to be enough. Of course, neither the general nor the president really wants war. They want ascertainable enemies whom they can blame for Russia’s shortcomings. It may seem too obviously self-serving, but it’s true. The only lasting legacy of Soviet communism is the instinct to see the West as behind all of Russia’s faults.
In this thinking, American anti-missile batteries in Poland are being aimed at Russia as a precursor to an attack. “Why else would they be there?” asks the Russian leadership. The well-publicized development of Iranian long-range missiles is not an adequate explanation in Russian eyes. The promise of “flexibility” after his reelection that President Obama whispered to Dmitry Medvedev on a forgotten open microphone is what Moscow is counting on to alter American planned deployment.
If that is true, it certainly seems an odd way for the Russian General Staff to set its strategic plans. What matters, of course, is that the specter of American ambition to attack Russia is kept alive. Marshal Zhukov must be spinning in his grave.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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Albert Constantine Jr.| 10.15.12 @ 8:18AM
It is worth mentioning that when the Soviet Union was attacked by Nazi Germany in 1941, they were parties to a non-aggression pact with each other, and had been allied to the extent how Polish territory was portioned after Germany’s 1939 invasion. When Russians make treaties with someone, they expect that the treaty will be broken, and don’t wish to be the one fooled first. Much of their paranoia is projection.
TLP| 10.15.12 @ 3:14PM
It's okay.
When Obama gets Reelected, he'll have a lot more latitude to Sell Us Down The River.
Moved along.
Nothing to see here.
All is well.
HEIL OBAMA!
John Navratil| 10.15.12 @ 8:26AM
The Russian population pyramid is almost inverted. Demographically, the country is in decline and social collapse is the most likely eventual outcome.
There is still a lot of wealth for those able to capture it. What better way to squirrel away the nations wealth than claiming it for the nation and imprisoning opponents? When the rat is finally cornered, which is inevitable, the danger really begins.
Pecos Pete| 10.15.12 @ 9:05AM
JN: Your comment could also be about the USA.
John Navratil| 10.15.12 @ 9:19AM
Pecos Pete,
In what way? We maintain a total fertility rate above 2 (not quite the replacement rate of 2.1) but the highest of any western country, except France which just edges past us and where they have been subsidizing babies for years. Russia's is 1.6 and China's is 1.55 - Canada's is between the two.
Obama's kleptocracy is a shadow of Putin's and the oligarchs and can be undone - albeit slowly.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 10.15.12 @ 11:45AM
In France, how many of those being born there currently are of North African ancestry, as opposed to European ancestry?
John Navratil| 10.15.12 @ 1:04PM
Albert Constantine Jr.,
I can't seem to find such a breakdown. The CIA factbook reports the 4% of France's population is Arab/North African. That's about the best I can do.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 10.15.12 @ 2:47PM
I have heard figures that suggest that they're nearly 40% of the reproduction, though, which is why the expectation of who is a minority in France could change in a generation or so.
TLP| 10.15.12 @ 3:30PM
It's called: The Feminization of the White Male.
I, myself, have 2 Sons, 2 Testacles, 2 Vehicles, and 1 Mortgage that is breaking my 2 Testicles.
My Wife has 2 of Navritil's Favourite things, 2 legs that are way nicer than that old Bag - Carrie Ficher - has, and 200 Reasons to Leave me, on a Daily Basis.
And my GIANTS made the 49ers look like all of the other Homos in SanFransisco, yesterday.
The Cowboys Lost. The Eagles Lost. And, the Patriots Lost.
Life is Good.
Occam's Tool| 10.15.12 @ 8:04PM
Pecos: actually, not quite. The life expectancy for Russian males is under 60. Hep C, HIV, etc. are rampant.
And Albert, the French don't break it down like that. They won't tell you. But here's a little Wiki for you:
In May 2006, it was reported that statistics indicate that some 8,928 Danish Muslims carry the name Muhammad and that in 2004 alone, 167 new-born babies were registered.[8]
In 2009 Mohammed was the sixteenth most popular baby name in England and Wales, though it was the most popular in the West Midlands.[9]
Mohammed and Mohamed were the first most popular baby name in Département Seine-Saint-Denis (2002, 2008) and in Marseilles (2007, 2009), France.[10][11][12]
By the way, one of my friends adopted a baby from Kazakhstan 9 years ago. It was the only healthy baby they were shown in the orphanage.
TLP| 10.15.12 @ 3:22PM
Since we're on the subject of: The Russians?
How many times have you seen me write about Our Astronauts having to Hitch a Ride in to Space, with a buncha Low Sperm Count Drunks from Russia?
How many times?
5? 10?
In today's News, we come to find that the latest Russian Airline Disaster was a result of Both Russian Pilots being DRUNK, and low on Sperm. (Okay. I threw in the Sperm thing, myself. But, you get the picture.)
Meister| 10.15.12 @ 9:49AM
What they also lack is the technical expertise and industrial base necessary to support a world-class military. Development and construction of new platforms for the Navy, for example, is proceeding at a snail's pace and often based on out of date technology.
TLP| 10.15.12 @ 3:33PM
The Russians are a Joke, and they know it.
Obama is a Joke, and they know it, as do ALL OF OUR ENEMIES.
That is what we're up against, should this Gay Bathhouse Eye Candy get Reelected.
JimH| 10.15.12 @ 10:08AM
Putin and the Russian military are not stupid. They must realize there is no real threat from the West. The anti American bluster is at least in part cover to explain its rebuilding and modernization of its armed forces which will more likely be needed to defend the eastern part of the country from a resource hungry China.
TLP| 10.15.12 @ 3:50PM
You're absolutely right. They're Not Stupid.
They don't have to be.
President Marxist has already told them, right up front, that he is their BITCH.
"Tell Vladimir that, after this Election, I will suck his D*ck."
What more does one need to know?
cicero| 10.15.12 @ 1:52PM
The Russians are living in a twilight zone between the old Russia of Stalin and his type, and the new Russia that has yet to emerge. They are in no position to defend or act on her bluster, and do not want anything that will resemble the devastation of WWII. America, on the other hand, has turned itself over to an administration of amatuers who have no idea what they are doing, but want to play at being players, while they plunder the treasury.
We will have to wait for the grownups to resume command, and hope that not too much damage has been done. In the meanwhile, Russia can meddle, and break windows, but she cannot do more than await her fate, as she weakens and the forces aroud her watch and salivate.
TLP| 10.15.12 @ 3:57PM
I think that you forget that Europe gets all of their Natural Gas from Czar Putin.
He looks at our Effeminate Homo in Chief, and sees EMPIRE.
Europe is a piece of Ripe, Low Hanging Fruit, waiting to be Picked.
Don't ever forget that.
cicero| 10.15.12 @ 4:28PM
TLP - If the US gets its head out of its derriere, and starts pumping its own oil and natural gas, we can nullify Russia's position, and pay off our debt at the same time. Even if it is a ways off, Russia can only sell its nat. gas for what the Europeans are willing or able to pay.
I agree that Europe is a ripe fruit waiting to be picked. That does not make Russia any stronger. If Europe collapses, Russia has lost her biggest customer. In addition, consider all of the countries that form the southern border. They are all Islamic. I would be very nervous if I were Russia. Russia can play the game only so long as no one calls her bluff. Reagan proved that. The next player to do so may not be one who merely wants peace.
TLP| 10.15.12 @ 4:54PM
The problem with your argument is the word IF.
IF The Muslim gets reelected?
"IF" disappears.
Occam's Tool| 10.16.12 @ 1:21AM
Concur, Cicero. Why I am voting for Romney.
THKrupp| 10.16.12 @ 10:49AM
I dont think the Russians are too worried about their Islamic neighbors. Their bigger problem is their communist neighbor. Ask the citizens of Grozny how well their separatist movement worked out.