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Special Report
How Carter Beat Reagan
Washington Post admits polling was “in-kind contribution”; New York Times agenda polling.
Dick Morris is right.
Here’s his column on “Why the Polls Understate the Romney Vote.”
Here’s something Dick Morris doesn’t mention. And he’s charitable.
Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?
That’s right. Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980.
In a series of nine stories in 1980 on “Crucial States” — battleground states as they are known today — the New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was in a close and decidedly winnable race with the former California governor. And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories.
Four years later, it was the Washington Post that played the polling game — and when called out by Reagan campaign manager Ed Rollins a famous Post executive called his paper’s polling an “in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.” Mondale, of course, being then-President Reagan’s 1984 opponent and Carter’s vice president.
All of which will doubtless serve as a reminder of just how blatantly polling data is manipulated by liberal media — used essentially as a political weapon to support the liberal of the moment, whether Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 — or Barack Obama in 2012.
First the Times in 1980 and how it played the polling game.
The states involved, and the datelines for the stories:
- · California — October 6, 1980
- · Texas — October 8, 1980
- · Pennsylvania — October 10, 1980
- · Illinois — October 13, 1980
- · Ohio — October 15, 1980
- · New Jersey — October 16, 1980
- · Florida — October 19, 1980
- · New York — October 21, 1980
- · Michigan — October 23, 1980
Of these nine only one was depicted as “likely” for Reagan: Reagan’s own California. A second — New Jersey — was presented as a state that “appears to support” Reagan.
The Times led their readers to believe that each of the remaining seven states were “close” — or the Times had Carter leading outright.
In every single case the Times was proven grossly wrong on election day. Reagan in fact carried every one of the nine states.
Here is how the Times played the game with the seven of the nine states in question.
About the Author
Jeffrey Lord is a former Reagan White House political director and author. He writes from Pennsylvania at jlpa1@aol.com.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (93) | Leave a comment
More Articles by Jeffrey Lord
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http://spectator.org/archives/2012/09/25/how-carter-beat-reagan
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William L. Gensert| 9.25.12 @ 7:16AM
President Obama is headed to defeat in November, and it won't be close. Forget about the polls, and forget about the cadre of delusional Democrats who can't stop telling us how great and successful the last three and a half years have been.
Read more of my article: http://www.americanthinker.com.....z27TlamnnM
Intelligent Design| 9.25.12 @ 7:21AM
Agree.
Von Mises Jr| 9.25.12 @ 8:13AM
Rush has always touted that liberalism is a gutless choice. I realized how insightful this is after reading Coulter's "Demonic" and one of the reference books she used called "The Psychology of Revolution" by Gustave Le Bon.
Just over 100 years after the French Revolution, a French Psychologist tried to answer the question "how the hell do we explain that?"
He concluded that people in crowds behave differently than as individuals due to mob pressure. If Robespierre demands "Off with the Noble's head," to oppose might cost you your head.
So liberals just go along not to upset the mob leaders and risk their own esteem. I just spent an evening with liberal family and chuckled among the other couple conservatives that it would take days just to explain to the others the things that they do not know about current events. Even if they know the topic, they have been fed talking points and refuse to scratch below the surface. Ignorance is bliss.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 9.25.12 @ 8:25AM
Liberalism cannot survive without ignorance, which is why they are so dependent on bad schools.
TLP| 9.25.12 @ 9:16AM
Does it matter what the Polls are?
Come November we get our Chance to take his Fckng Head Off - so to speak - at the Ballot Box.
Look around, where you live. How much is Gas? How much is Heating Oil, now that Winter is right around the Corner?
How much to Feed and Clothe your Family? And, are you always One Paycheck Away from losing everything?
How many Stores have left the Mall? How many Stores have left Main Street? How many Companies have fled this Sinking Ship?
American Airlines just sent out ELEVEN THOUSAND Layoff Warnings.
The EPA has announced the Closure of up to THREE HUNDRED Coal Fired Electrical Generation Plants.
GM is building New Plants IN CHINA.
The Fed is turning our Dollar into Weimar Republic Duetchemarks. Suicides are the latest thing going Off the Charts, along with Food Stamps, Foreclosures, Homelessness, and People living in Poverty.
Add to that, the fact that we have an Ocean of Oil right under our feet, and with it, a Million Jobs, or more, just waiting for Mitt Romney to end The Muslim's Crusade against Energy Independence, and Good Paying Jobs.
That's my Poll.
And, it's the only one anyone need pay attention to.
SIC SEMPER TYRANNUS!
At the Ballot Box, come November.
Von Mises Jr| 9.25.12 @ 9:31AM
TLP, Now you know that the oil under our feet belongs to the progressives.
Before the Industrial Revolution and Locke's ideas on property rights, everything belonged to the Nobles. Serfs worked for the elite and were given the equivalent of a garden to feed their families.
This is the same paradigm the left sees with oil. We shall eventually drill for it at minimum wage and the Obama can fund the next $2B vacation to the "Festival of Lights" in India for them and their friends.
Socialism is not that hard to figure out. It is the "New Serfdom."
Check out the Agenda21 Map and you will see that your new world is the urban areas working for a fascist Immelt or Buffet. The elites shall have the minerals, energy, farms and water to portion out to the "Bewildered Herd."
vtwin| 9.25.12 @ 10:03AM
Breaking News:
Washington Post poll: Obama up 8 in Ohio, 4 in Florida
http://www.politico.com/blogs/.....36590.html
In related news suicides up…among Limbaugh listeners.
RRDRRD| 9.25.12 @ 11:01AM
You didn't even bother to read the article, did you?
If you do all your polling at the DNC HQ you get those kind of results.
TLP| 9.25.12 @ 4:27PM
The Washington Post.
Pathetic.
John II| 9.25.12 @ 6:42PM
Sic semper tyrannIS, Tlippie. You need the dative plural, not the nominative singular.
Otherwise, that's a sharp peroration that the Republicans would be wise to steal for their last month of campaigning.
I hope some parched conservative Republican speechwriters are browsing over these threads for ideas. Probably not, though.
And now back to "All the King's Men," the superior 1949 version in which Broderick Crawford took an Academy Award for his portrayal of a Huey Long-like politician whose life goes astray in proportion to his success as a politician. There's one early scene, though, in which he's delivering a rather shy and diffident speech to a cluster of farmers about their troubles, and then suddenly he gets fire in his belly and starts roaring eloquent denunciations of his own (and the farmers') political enemies, quickly drawing a huge crowd who roar back and elect him in a landslide.
vtwin| 9.25.12 @ 8:23AM
President Obama is headed to defeat in November because “Obamacare strips $716 billion from Medicare, and as a result, seniors in states like Florida will make their voices heard this Election Day.”
Republicans have always hated Medicare; Reagan spoke out against Medicare calling it “Socialism” in 1961. Ryan and the Republican controlled House passed two bills that would have replaced Medicare with an underfunded voucher program, the so-called “Path to Prosperity” bills in 2011 and 2012. And now you think the seniors in Florida are dumb enough to want to see Romney, Ryan, and the Republicans in the White House because in 2013 Republicans are the neo-savors of Medicare? Good luck with that lie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRdLpem-AAs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T.....Prosperity
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 5:39AM
ObaMao is headed to defeat in November because We, the People, have had enough of his incompetence
Cobalt| 9.25.12 @ 5:28PM
UnskewedPolls.com
http://unskewedpolls.com/
This website was referenced by Dick Morris in his latest video.
Jumper4000| 9.25.12 @ 6:14PM
4 years a go, I was sitting at my desk, every single day, wondering if I'd have a job the next day.
4 years a go, I was watching my immediate coworkers getting laid off by boatloads.
4 years a go, my best friends were losing their businesses
4 years a go, everyone knew people who were losing their homes
4 years a go, the stock market was on an absolute free fall.
4 years a go, every single house on the block was in foreclosure
4 years a go, we lost some of our largest financial institutions, and the rest were getting flushed down the tube.
4 years a go, the American auto industry was on the verge of extinction.
4 years a go, the credit card companies were literally raping people.
4 years a go, the dollar was collapsing.
ALL OF THAT was due to conservative ideas. Have you forgot?
Things ARE better now. If you're not doing better, something's wrong with you!
John II| 9.25.12 @ 7:17PM
What a coincidence.
2 years ago I was sitting at my desk, every single day, wondering if I'd have a job the next day. It was a government job, so I didn't have anything else to do.
2 years ago, my best friend and several acquaintances (I only have one best friend) lost their businesses.
2 years ago, my son lost his home. It had something to do with a policy started by left-liberal Democrats several years ago requiring lending agencies to extend credit to bums.
2 years ago, the stock market was behaving the way it still is: erratically under the erratic policies cooked up by a degenerate administration of crypto-Marxian ignoramuses.
2 years ago, every single house in the universe started to be in danger of foreclosure.
2 years ago, some of our largest financial institutions started being targeted for not being any of our smallest financial institutions.
2 years ago, the American auto industry began the long march, so to speak, towards being owned by China.
2 years ago, the credit card companies started thriving because the policies of a cretinous state apparatus were literally raping people--well, figuratively raping people anyhow, destroying millions of jobs and forcing millions to live on credit just to buy basic goods at inflated prices.
2 years ago, the dollar went into a steady spiral of devaluation.
Things are GREAT now--we have a chance to kick morons like yourself out of the driver's seat.
JR| 9.25.12 @ 7:28PM
So, $9 trillion later, what's changed other than adding many more millionaire liberals?
Al Adab| 9.25.12 @ 7:37PM
And how is everyone this evening?
Conservative policies began in 1981 which by 1983 began an unprecedented expansion of the economy which - with one hiatus from 92 to 94 - lasted untill The Left gained control of Congress following the 2006 elections. That precipitated the free fall which so many decry. A 25 year economic expansion is nothing to laugh at or reject.
Since 09 we have seen rapid expansion of an already intolerable debt, continuing and larger annual deficits, increasing regulation and ever larger tax and impost proposals. The election of 2010 should be seen as a loud public cry against these policies. It is the GOP (not necessarily Conservative) control of the House which has held back the tide while the DEM controlled Senate refuses to consider, let alone pass, any federal operating budget.
It is not Conservative policy friends which have caused these economic conditions, but it is the fault of those who consider this an acceptable new norm that the situation has not improved for the majority of Americans. Perhaps many voters are willing to accept these conditions- 15% of the population on food stamps for example- but it should be unacceptable to all. This was and can be again the land of promise where individuals can, by luck and pluck, succeed in bettering their lives. Those in public life who claim otherwise for the sake of political power are the most reprehensible of beings.
Al Adab| 9.25.12 @ 7:50PM
...and let me remind you also, it was JFK who, in proposing his tax cuts, said, "A rising tide lifts all ships." That is "trickle down" long before The Left opposed Laffer and the curve.
Ibn Khaldun, the great Moslem historian, wrote that, "The wise King lowers his taxes on the realm so the people may prosper." That was in the 14th century. How long will you people continue to ignore the Truths of history?
Abu Nudnik| 9.29.12 @ 11:40AM
Absolutely true! After Kennedy the Democratic party veered sharply to the left and is now in the gutter. "Help! I've fallen and I can't get up!"
"I didn't leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me." -Ronald Reagan
Abu Nudnik| 9.29.12 @ 11:36AM
"4 years a go, the credit card companies were literally raping people."
Uh-huh. Doesn't know the meaning of the word "literally."
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 9.25.12 @ 9:29PM
Carter demonstrates why good people don't belong in politics-- they ought to stay on their peanut farms and in their churches.
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 9.25.12 @ 9:31PM
....and don't write Carter is evil; you call him weak, soft, smiley and ineffective--
does all that make him personally evil?
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 5:56AM
Carter is a notoriously thin-skinned senile boob, who treated his Secret Service detail like plantation servants, nad nurses grudges for decades, and rarely misses an opportunity to race bait, or to stick the shiv in the back of anyone he feels has ever slighted him
Abu Nudnik| 9.29.12 @ 11:38AM
It's vanity that was his downfall and continues to be. Is vanity an evil? Well, it's not a virtue, is it?
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 7:13PM
Mr. Gensert: I just read one of your articles in The American Thinker. Wow, what excellent writing and reasoning.
Appleby| 9.25.12 @ 7:22AM
I remember settling down before the TV with my popcorn and coffee prepared for a long night of exciting battlegrounds...and five minutes after the polls closed, Carter conceded.
Of course, the big difference this time is that Romney is a limp, bland, uninteresting guy who personifies the old joke that "An empty elevator arrived and Mitt Romney got out." My mother is debating writing in Rick Santorum's name -- and she has never done such a thing in her life. "You can do that, right?" she asked me last night. It may be way past too late for Romney to get a personality, but surely somebody can teach him to speak as if he cares whether we all live or die. Didn't anybody think that a wet sop like him ought to have acting lessons, or at least Toastmasters, before they propped him up in front of people looking for leadership?
Doctor Right| 9.25.12 @ 7:30AM
Romney is a proven leader; he succeeds at practically everything he does.
Has your mom lost her marbles? Why would she waste a vote?
Jack in Wi| 9.25.12 @ 7:49AM
He is a huge flop so far. Vote Republican down ticket and write in anyone else at the top. The Presidency is gone, thanks to the Bush gang and the Neocons. It is time to save as much as we can of the Congress. I would vote for Romney if he had or has a chance in this state. I don't think he does anymore. I said before no prowar candidate can do well here or in most of the Midwest.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 5:57AM
Jack, when are you going to come out of the closet as an ObaMao troll? it's not like you're fooling anyone
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 7:17PM
I don't think Romney is "Pro-war," he is just not a jihadi loving scumbag antisemitic coward.
By the way, I grew up in the Midwest and live here. Cravaack, my Rep, is no "neo-con," as he is a fiscal and social Conservative epitome.
But he also doesn't believe in supporting baby killing like you do, Jack. I'm not talking about opposing abortion; I'm talking about supporting the beheading of infants. No one likes you, Cheesehead. No one.
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 9.25.12 @ 9:33PM
Run Romney's wife and I will vote for HER.
I like Mitt's dog better than him.
Jack in Wi| 9.25.12 @ 7:42AM
Amen Appleby. Romney has no personality, is igoramt of hisotory, geogaphy, econmics, political science and much more. He is a tool of his handlers and consultants. All this is true of Obama but he has much better consultants. All those old Dole, Bush and McCain people are doing a terrible job. He may still win if he can get his act together because of the economy. But it does not seem likely.
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 9.25.12 @ 9:35PM
Romney=
Colin Powell + David Gergen.
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 7:19PM
let's help Jack correct his misspellings in CAPS:
"is IGNORANT of HISTORY, GEOGRAPHY, ECONOMICS." Learn to spell, Jack, before you call someone "igoramt."
And, OBAMA HAS BETTER CONSULTANTS?
Son, just put yourself out of our misery, OK? No one likes you, boy.
Joellen| 9.25.12 @ 8:04AM
Appleby, for GOODNESS SAKE, talk some sense into your Mother. DO NOT WASTE THE VOTE on a third party. This is a do or die election - I dont care that Romney does or doesnt have a personality - I am not marraying him - I am electing him to be my president - can we all get that straight now.
vtwin| 9.25.12 @ 9:01AM
Well God bless your mother. Although I find Santorum’s views extreme I could see my own mother, she’s gone now, a religious woman preferring Santorum over a man who worships a God he keeps in a bank account in the Cayman Islands.
2Anglico| 9.25.12 @ 10:04AM
NOBODY cares what Romney does with his OWN money. We care about what Obama and congress are doing with OUR money!
"Taking the property of one American, by force, and giving it to another American, TO WHOM IT DOES NOT BELONG, is THEFT"...or socialism. And that includes mediscare.
vtwin| 9.25.12 @ 10:12AM
“Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society” -- Oliver Wendell Holmes
Riff Raff| 9.25.12 @ 11:25AM
Taxes, yes. But not one cent for tribute.
So, why do 47% NOT "pay the price for a civilized society?" What exempts them? I don't mind paying taxes, but why does half my income go to government? The real reason is so Obama can buy votes. Obama and the Democrats are corrupt. So are you.
vtwin| 9.25.12 @ 4:26PM
True 47% don’t federal income taxes but they pay taxes, state income taxes, federal payroll taxes (Social Security, Medicare), sales taxes, property taxes… NO American escapes paying taxes. And why does half your income go to government, because someone has to makeup for the difference lost to greedy assholes like Romney that pay only 13% to 14% in federal income taxes on multimillion dollar incomes.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 3:51PM
you IDIOT...according to the IRS, Romney's tax rate is HIGHER than 97% of the rest of the American taxpayers...btw, the average tax rate is 11%; Romney's rate has averaged 20% for the pas 20 years...i GUARANTEE he pays more in income taxes in ONE year than you have in your entire LIFE-i'm not about to crucify a man who pays millions each year on top of contributing far more than that to charity-the bottom line is, most of Romney's income goes to taxes and charity...can you say the same??????
Drunken Sailor| 9.25.12 @ 11:37AM
The people are hungry: It is because those in authority eat up too much in taxes.
Lao Tzu
Increased government spending can provide a temporary stimulus to demand and output but in the longer run higher levels of government spending crowd out private investment or require higher taxes that weaken growth by reducing incentives to save, invest, innovate, and work.
Martin Feldstein
Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice: all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things.
Adam Smith
vtwin| 9.25.12 @ 4:33PM
People are without in this country of plenty because of the insatiable greed of the people running it. --vtwin
TLP| 9.25.12 @ 6:10PM
I have no idea how a free market Capitalism System works.
I believe in To each according to his Needs. From each, according to his Ability. -- vtwin.
Also, I'm a Fckng Dumb@ss. --vtwin.
TLP| 9.25.12 @ 6:14PM
Gaia Bless Amerika. --vtwin.
TLP| 9.25.12 @ 6:16PM
People are without in this Country, because we have a President who's Marxist Redistributive, Anti-Business Economic Policies are anathema to this Country. --TLP.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 3:51PM
TLP, you've NAILED vtwit
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 5:58AM
i hope Kos gave you a receipt for that $1.50 talking point...
Pecos Pete| 9.25.12 @ 7:32AM
Ignore the polls. Vote! Work your family and friends and get them to Vote for R&R. The demonuts are despondent and will not vote in the numbers that the anti-Obamaians will bring out.
uvmatt| 9.25.12 @ 8:24AM
This seems like an awful lot of effort to refute 30-year-old polling data ... The fact is no voter should put too much weight on any one pollster. Aggregate polling data, like RealClearPolitics averages, can be quite informative. A similar exercise in 1980 shows that Reagan was in the lead from the beginning of June until election day. The lead grew and shrank, but Reagan was always winning. ....
Albert Constantine Jr.| 9.25.12 @ 8:28AM
The problem with this is that it assumes that the flaws in polls cancel themselves out. However, if too many of your polls are flawed in the same manner (say, overrepresenting Democrats, for example), the average will reflect that flaw as well.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 6:00AM
EXACTLY!!!!! EVERY ONE of these polls is based on the 2008 voter demographic, even rasmussen, which has a better batting average than the rest
SeymourGlass| 9.25.12 @ 9:36AM
"Weighted to project a probable electorate."
Yeah, sure.
Here are just two more meaningful words for this year's polling: "Bradley Effect."
Romney by 6 points and 100 electoral votes.
Andrew P111| 9.25.12 @ 9:37AM
The one big problem comparing 2012 to 1980 is the phrase "weighted to a probable electorate". The truth is that no one knows who will show up. The media know this is a turnout battle, and are doing everything possible to jazz up their side and depress the GOP side. But I doubt we will have a 1980 style blowout for Romney. My expectation is that Black voters will show up in greater numbers than they did in 2008, because of an emotional need to protect a member of the tribe (Obama) who is under attack. I am pretty sure there will be surprise outcomes in many states though.
EthanFuture| 9.25.12 @ 10:35AM
Already reports in Ohio that record numbers of absentee ballots being requested in many Ohio districts, more than in 2008...It's over for Mitt. maybe next time we will give the religious right the finger and pick someone good like Daniels or Gary Johnson who wont pander to the religion clowns.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 6:06AM
My expectation is that Black voters will show up in greater numbers than they did in 2008, because of an emotional need to protect a member of the tribe (Obama) who is under attack.
------------------------------------------------
-i wouldn't count on that; a LARGE number of African-American pastors have been urging their congregations to simply stay home on Nov 6, because of ObaMao's position on gay marriage
-in addition, the 18-25 yr old turnout will likely be significantly lower than 2008
-Romney enjoys a HUGE advantage among military members and veterans, as well as the middle class
it's been said that, if ObaMao is campaigning in VA after Labor Day, there's trouble on the horizon; he'll be here AGAIN tomorrow, nearly October...
Who Knows?| 9.25.12 @ 9:38AM
Intrade has Romney at 27%, and trending down.
vtwin| 9.25.12 @ 10:07AM
Nate Silver as of today gives Obama 78% chance of winning in November.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n.....te-silver/
George S| 9.25.12 @ 11:00AM
What is predicted today goes out the window on election day. In 2010 he predicted 45 House seats for Republicans. It was 63. Off by 40 percent which is as wrong as you can be in polling statistical analysis.
What happened is what always happens: if the incumbent is not polling over 50% then times are bad and the incumbent loses.
What Silver should do is find people who voted for McCain in 2008 who are now going to switch to Obama. Then find people who are not voting Obama. Add them up. That is the only analysis you need.
JmsA| 9.25.12 @ 4:28PM
Don't waste your time explaining statistics to the nitwit; he once posited that statistics were used in political polling but not in actuarial analysis such as social security and medicare projections by the government.
RRDRRD| 9.25.12 @ 11:28AM
Calling the 2008 Presidential election did not need an allegedly advanced modeling system. Everyone knew the Dem was going to win before the candidate was selected – our country rarely gives either party three terms in a row and then only after an extremely popular president. Moreover, his prediction of the margin was not accurate – an error of about 18% of the actual margin.
His “claim to fame” is that he got all of the 08 Senate races correct. However, this prediction was made only 2 days before the election. Anyone with access to a newspaper could call 90%+ of the races in that time frame. Only three senate races were close that year (decided by 3% or less) with the average winner of the rest of the races having a 25% edge. If you decided that “heads” are Dems and “tails” are Rep (or the other way around), you would make the correct call on the three remaining races about a third of the time. BFD
In 2010, he got 3 of 37 Senate races wrong (again, with most of the races being lopsided, including one with no opposition) including the easily predictable win by Harry Reid over Sharon Angle (by 8 points). He completely botched the House elections under predicting the Republican landslide by 10 seats 2 days before the election.
In short, Nate is a shill (not coincidently employed by the absurdly left wing NYT) who – like Obama – is only adapt at misdirecting the slow witted into thinking he has record of success.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 3:52PM
the same Intrade who said that ObaMaoScare would be repealed by the SCOTUS...
Howard| 9.25.12 @ 10:21AM
While I strongly agree with the author about the blatant, pornographic bias within the Mainstream Media, the numbers that the New York Times was running with were probably correct.
By that, I mean that the polls broke strongly for The Gipper during the final weekend before the election. During September and October the polls did show Carter with a lead. It took the debate with Jimmy to convince people to bail out on Carter. he was exposed as the fraud that he always was and still is. But, the polls were right. The Mainstream Media was pimping for Carter the whole time, just as they are pimping for Obama right now. Romney's challenge is to debate Obama into the ground, and allow people to feel comfortable in voting for Romney!
Vic| 9.25.12 @ 10:29AM
Wow Jeff Lord, that is such a great analysis. This depressing parade of bad polls is sapping conservative morale and I would make your article a must read for them all. I am convinced these polls are not capturing the mood of the country accurately (et tu Rasmussen) and ultimately Romney will prevail. One of the reasons for my personal dismay nonetheless remains that our fickle brethren rooted for this fellow over the charismatic Gingrich and the upright Santorum. This race wouldn't dare be scored by the MSM this way had they been on the ticket!
Al Adab| 9.25.12 @ 11:14AM
The question friends is what do we do as individuals on Nov. 7th?
Several of the State governments will refuse to comply with coming directives. Some have ballot measures on this year for just that regarding health care, climate regulation and State lands. The administration will use regulatory agencies to punish the States that refuse. This is going to be ugly. Can Federalism survive four years of increasing federal power?
Riff Raff| 9.25.12 @ 11:17AM
The most important point of this article, indeed the most important point to be discussed at all right now, is that politicians are corrupt and the "fellatio news media" are equally corrupt. And by far the most corrupt are all Democrats who will (and have in the past) lie, cheat, steal, forge, and/or bribe anyone and everyone they can to win elections. That the Washington Post leads a cabal of "media" liars and crooks is not suprising and is indeed an old story that goes back to cover most of the 20th Century and continues unabated today. Barack Obama is the "new caesar" and the "media" will lie to and about anyone to see that he stays in power.
BackToBasics| 9.25.12 @ 11:43AM
The article correctly notes that the most accurate "poll" of 1980 was the elction itself.
What the 1980 election results also show is that mostly due to demographic shifts, many states that Republicans could win then are no longer in play for them. Look at 1984 when reaganwon 49 states and lost narrowly to Mondale in Minnesota.
That will never happen again. Wake up Republican leaders. Winning a majority of Hispanics is a pipe dream and always has been.
This site has menu options by year to show electoral votes or maps for all presidential elections since 1789.
http://presidentelect.org/e1980.html
Xandman| 9.25.12 @ 12:26PM
Ah, Conservatives by nature cannot think forward and always look to the past to assuage themselves. This analysis may look good on paper but it is a Maginot line of defense against psychological defeat. They think they can preserve their morale by analogizing to the last war and making assumptions that misread new developments that have changed the landscape. Better polling techniques, upticking public sentiment, and the importance of personalities (Romney resembles Gore more than Obama does) have changed the terrain, and the Conservative Ardennes Forest of Denial won't stop the Liberal blitzkrieg (because everyone knows, silly, Liberals are just like Nazis).
Butch| 9.25.12 @ 5:48PM
As a professional researcher, I can tell you with certainty that polling techniques are not "better." Personal interviews are prohibitively expensive, telephone interviews have been corrupted by caller ID, and mail and internet surveys suffer from extreme nonresponse bias. In addition, mail and internet surveys require the ability to read, which understates the illiterate and non-English readers, two important democrat constituencies.
Floyd R Turbo (American)| 9.25.12 @ 2:47PM
Some time ago Joy Behar (on "the View"), said that obama's re-election was such a foregone conclusion that the Republicans: "might as well give this one [election] a pass".
The democrat strategy is clear - try to depress the Republican turnout by pretending that obama has the election in the bag. There is an obvious downside to this strategy however - the democrat rank-and-file are more likely to believe the democrat pundits, and they might not come out to vote if they think that they will win anyway.
I think that the democrats' internal polling has been showing a Romney lead for some time now. The democrats are using this strategy because they are desperate - just like with Carter.
Butch| 9.25.12 @ 5:55PM
You are correct, Sir. Obama has the most dismal record in history, has proposed absolutely nothing for his second term, and furiously slams his opponent as though HE is the challenger who is behind. They are down to disproportionate turnout and voter fraud.
Anthony| 9.25.12 @ 2:48PM
So why is it that these Ben Bradlee comments are not more well know in the conservative media?Ben Bradlee was/is a leftist media whore in the 1st order.
His protection and cover-up for Kennedy was a badge of honor for Bradlee. His persecution of Nixon over a 3rd rate burglary was a joke, given the historical hindsight now attributed to how minor the entire episode actually was.
If Nixon deserved to be impeached for Watergate, what the hell should happen to Obozo for his actions in Fast & Furious? Not to mention Slick Willie, who should have been convicted in the Senate. Not proved!! said that fool of yersteryear, Arlen Spector.
Perhaps Bradlee, while sitting in his soiled Depends will tell us, as his wife, the doyenne of Washington, Sally Quinn, entertains the Washington smart set in her parlor.
RJ| 9.25.12 @ 4:29PM
Ben Bradlee's comment says it all about what much of the news media represents: "It's my in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign."
Most of them have denigrated the news profession and are nothing but propagandists.
Let's not forget how they also tried to throw the 2000 and 2004 elections. In 2000, they called Florida for Gore with the polls open. Afterwards, different polls concluded that by doing so, it cost Bush between 8,000 to 13,000 votes, net, in Florida. Without the premature call for Gore in Florida, we don't go through the 36 day election contest. And if calling the Florida election for Gore 15 or so minutes before the polls closed in Florida, I wonder how much of a difference it made in the national vote? Perhaps he wouldn't have gotten a majority of the votes nationally.
And who can forget the stacked exit polls in 2004 which indicated Kerry would win in a landslide.
More reasons to vote your conscience and ignore the polls.
soljerblue| 9.25.12 @ 8:51PM
"Most of them have denigrated the news profession and are nothing but propagandists."
You're too kind. They're towel boys in Obama's whorehouse
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 3:57PM
no...they NEED towel boys, to wipe the DNA from their chins
Butch| 9.25.12 @ 5:57PM
I think you can also count on all MSM outlets "calling" the election for Obama before the polls have closed, as Rather did in Florida in 2000. I think they will do this in every battleground state.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 3:55PM
this is more like Dewey/Truman '48...the entire media had written off Truman; ignoring the fact that Dewey's crowds were smaller than expected, and Truman's crowds were larger and more enthusiastic than expected...
Jumper4000| 9.25.12 @ 6:02PM
You guys seriously need to wake up and smell the coffee. 1980 was 32 years a go. EVERYTHING has changed since then. EVERYTHING!! When are Republicans going to realize that? We're tired of your 30 year old ideas. You act like the world has stopped in 1980. Since then you've had two other horrible Republican presidents that you're trying to wipe off the history books, and your latest nominee is nothing to write home about either. Instead of trying to buy this country, why don't you get some fresh ideas and come back to the table. Do you honestly believe that Romney has even the slightest chance to win California, New Jersey, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania?? By 2016 even Texas will be a battleground. Old white dudes are dying... Either get some fresh ideas or your entire party will die.
Anthony| 9.25.12 @ 6:31PM
Well Jumper,the ideas of the '80s made this country great. And what exactly are the "fresh" replacement ideas of " The One" doing for America ?
Oh yeah, 54 straight months of 8% unemployment ( of which , I suspect, you are one). Actually 14% using the G-6 figures. Redistribution as the answer, as the rich have ripped off the poor.
Hey moron, tell us how we got rich off the poor, who have nothing but our largess and generosity?
The Arab Spring is turning into the winter of our discontent.
WE'RE ALL OSAMAS, OBAMA.
We old white dudes may be dying, but we'll still bury your asses. Bet on it.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 3:56PM
so, humper3 1/2...your idea is to try to go back to Berkley circa 1967??????
lapkin| 9.25.12 @ 7:22PM
it's so so simple. People like Barry. They don't like Mr. Romney. That's it, no mystery. Oh yeah, the polls show they hold bush responsible for the economy.
kingsmill| 9.25.12 @ 10:42PM
Nice nostalgia piece by Jeff. Only difficulty, Ronaldus Maximus isn't coming down for breakfast. Mittchurian is the candidate.
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 3:57PM
and will wipe the smirk off ObaMao's mug come November...
Kingofthenet| 9.26.12 @ 2:31AM
Stop listening to that NeoCon 'Tinfoil' Conspiracy of Dem's +8, here is the TRUTH:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....ouldnt-be/
spike59| 9.26.12 @ 4:15PM
as usual, Queenofthenuts, you miss the point ENTIRELY about the polling; the problem is, the responses to ALL of them have been weighted to meet the demographic picture of the 2008 voters...which ignores several things:
1-turnout for 18-25 yr olds (who overwhelmingly vote Democrat) is WAY down
2-the 'monolithic' African-American vote will not be quite so monolithic; many have decided ObaMao has failed them, and a LOT of African-American pastors are exhorting their congregations to 'sit this one out' due to the same-sex marriage issue
3-the Jewish voters are beginning to turn away from ObaMao and his disdainful attitude towards Israel
4-ObaMao's approval ratings are still below 50%, and there are nearly TWICE as many people who "strongly disapprove" as "strongly approve" of ObaMao's job performance
since ObaMao's election, off-year elections have gone overwhelmingly for the Republicans, including the 2008 Congressional shellacking, Scott Brown winning the 'Chappaquiddick seat" in bluer-than-blue Taxachusetts, the re-taking of statehouses and governor's offices from coast to coast and Scott Walker's recent stomping of the Occutard/Unionistas in WI...funny thing, though-the polls were off in just about ALL of these races, and sometimes hilariously off!
enthusiasm for ObaMao is WAY down from 2008, and enthusiasm AGAINST him is rising daily...November will be fun
spike59| 9.27.12 @ 5:44AM
should be "the 2010 Congressional shellacking"
Martin kzovich| 9.26.12 @ 6:07AM
Well Bravo and double Bravo. This should have been common knowledge by now. As for me--I would dismiss any poll and every poll. Sadly but with the need to face reality squarely in its eyes so to speak--this includes FOX NEWS and all its polls. Get out the vote .
Martin kzovich| 9.26.12 @ 6:25AM
To all trolls--that means you carry the water for Obama: You are so full of it that to even contemplating an effort is out of the question. So keep posting--Freedom of Speech don't you know-and when Romney wins in a landslide I will be laughing myself silly.
The reason for all the lying and desperate assinine behavior of the Communist PartyUSA --that would be you trolls, is they know they will lose BIG TIME. And to all of those who want to save this country, throw away your need to respond to these jerks.
Martin kzovich| 9.26.12 @ 7:14AM
Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to make the same mistakes. Beat Obama and CPUSA.
capatolistmom| 9.26.12 @ 11:24AM
TLP your posts are always terrific. To add to the job losses -do to sequesteration, the major defenese contrators (Boeing, Lockhead M., Raython, etc.. - about 10) will be laying off anywhere from 300,000 to 1, 000,000 people at the befginning of January. The notices are to go out the beginning of November and the Obama administration is pressuring these compaines to hold the notices until November 7!!! What a surprise. A large number of the losses will be in so called battle ground states. (VA, CO, Ohio,....) - Senator McCain knows this and that is wehy he has been trying to get meetings set up and push the can down the road. These employees need to wake up and see what is happening, with the world in the state it is in we should be focused like a lazer on strengthening our military capabilities - ...not gutting them!!! Once these jobs are gone it will be decades before they come back. And when they do ... can anyone say China???India??? Vote this guy out NOW!!! Before you are out!!!
Bob From District 9| 9.27.12 @ 6:55PM
The media is owned by right wing .1%ers. The go where the money is, not the ideology.
So, if you don't like what the media publishes you must not like capitalism.
Abu Nudnik| 9.29.12 @ 11:47AM
Well, your quote from Ben Bradlee pretty much proves your point, Jeff. But one little question: doesn't some part of this polling have to do with money? I mean, advertisers pay for space and time and a close race is a compulsively watchable event. I wonder how much that has to do with jacking up the hype every four years. After all, it's kind of like Christmas is to retailers: they have come to depend on the boost in circulation. I, for example, order Rush 24/7 for a couple-three months each election cycle. I don't have time to listen but I like to hear him in the run-up and aftermath.
@Bob from Planet 9: What a bunch of malarky. Sure money is important in every business but everyone who owns a business isn't filthy rich. And readers want to read what legitimizes their own opinion - a lot of it is social. How do you think Fox succeeded? They saw everyone bunched to the left and said well, I think there's room over there. And they're no. 1 because of that decision. If the media were right-wing, Fox would have been another failed enterprise instead of the giant it is.
Abu Nudnik| 10.7.12 @ 9:32AM
I think Saturday Night Live got it nailed before the pollsters that year. I remember a few weeks before the election there was an SNL skit that sent up "Invasion of the Body Snatchers," the "replaced by pods" friends being people who woke up wanting to vote Reagan. So the humorists beat the pollsters. I forget the date of the broadcast though.