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Political Hay
Time to Suck It Up
Romney can win this thing.
It seems that a number of conservative pundits are losing their grip on this presidential campaign. Reading normally sane publications such as the Wall Street Journal and the Weekly Standard, and even Broadway types like Joe Scarborough and Peggy Noonan, you would think that this race wasn’t winnable. Did they think that knocking off a sitting president was going to be easy?
It is time to suck it up. Governor Romney can win this thing. Compared to Ronald Reagan in 1980, the race is very competitive if you believe Gallup (tied) or Rasmussen (Obama +1). I understand that Democrats argue Bush 2004 as a counter-factual, but the point is that the future is not written in the stars or the entrails of pigeons. You have to play the game.
Dick Morris has posted an analysis of polling results and argues that most polls underestimate Romney’s strength because they are over-weighting the samples of Democratic constituencies based on 2008 voter turnout. Rasmussen, on the other hand, is using a blend of 2004 and 2008 to reflect historic and likely turnout levels.
Fortunately, the rank and file did not get the memo of despair. Here in Virginia volunteers are pounding the pavement hard for the GOP’s candidates, up and down the ticket, supported by a solid organization. The face of this effort is Barbara Comstock, a Republican state legislator, who is also a veteran political consultant and activist. From what I can tell, she doesn’t sleep much.
In less than a week after Romney’s naming of Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate, the Romney and Virginia organizations pulled off a highly successful fundraiser in Arlington.
Another thing that is completely off the radar of Beltway and some conservative media types is the complete and unrelenting mobilization of social conservatives of all stripes dedicated to retiring Barack Obama. The Wall Street Journal, for instance, is certainly not against social conservatives, but its focus is primarily on economic libertarianism, tax reform, and neoconservative foreign policy. Thus, its editors tend to overlook elements of the Republican coalition that are not exclusively economic- or defense-minded. Unlike Grover Norquist, say, whose lifetime vocation is fighting tax increases, they do not understand coalition politics.
Pro-lifers, Evangelicals, Catholics, frosted over the violation of their First Amendment rights, Mormons of course, and pro-family advocates are in full mobilization. These elements of the base, along with defenders of the Second Amendment, anti-tax advocates, and the many and varied groups making up the Tea Party are highly motivated. They tend to talk less and work more than most pundits. Laborare est orare.
While the Catholic hierarchy usually does not name names in terms of whom to vote for, at least explicitly, President Obama’s anti-Catholic policies will continue to be the subject of much preaching and teaching through the balance of the election season. Moreover, there are now several grassroots organizations of popish persuasion who are working the Internet very hard, if my own inbox is any indication.
Campaigns follow a rhythm of their own with ups and downs but generally reaching a crescendo when all the elements of strategy and advocacy come to a peak in the final weeks before the November election. Call it the moment of truth when voters will finally cast their lot with whichever candidate matches the sum total of their hopes, dreams, and fears.
By the middle of October, I think a number of simple but disturbing truths will penetrate the collective consciousness of the electorate. And, yes, these will primarily be economic truths that will tip a majority of voters toward Mitt Romney. This is in no way antithetical to the activism of social conservatives who are often given a bad rap. Simply put, most social conservatives are in fact economic conservatives. Not all, but most.
Back to home truths, the economic ones. These were conveniently outlined by several heavy hitters on the Opinion page of the Wall Street Journal (“The Magnitude of the Mess We’re In,” September 17, 2012). Co-authored by George Shultz (serial Cabinet member), Michael Boskin, John F. Cogan, Allan H. Meltzer, and John B. Taylor, all solid conservative economists, the article posed a series of rhetorical questions to drive home our current predicament at the hands of the Obama administration.
“Did you know that annual spending by the federal government exceeds the 2007 level by about $1 trillion?” resulting in “an unprecedented string of federal budget deficits, $1.4 trillion in 2009, $1.3 trillion in 2010, $1.3 trillion in 2011, and another $1.2 trillion on the way this year.”
Shultz and company note that the four-year increase in borrowing amounts to $55,000 per U.S. household.
“While it might be tempting to conclude that we can just tax upper-income people, did you know that the U.S. income tax system is already very progressive?” Indeed, the top 1 percent pay 37 percent of all income taxes and 50 percent pay none.
Regarding the Fed, the authors enquire, “Did you know that, during the last fiscal year, around three-quarters of the deficit was financed by the Federal Reserve?” Foreign governments take care of most of the rest. The Fed now owns one in six dollars of the national debt, the largest in history including the Second World War. Most of this goes to, i.e., is given, to the banks, “effectively circumventing the appropriations process.”
You get the idea. The bottom line is that “President Obama’s budget will raise the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to 80.4% in two years, about double its level at the end of 2008 to the beginning of this year.” In ten years, the President will expand our debt to $18.8 trillion from $10.8 trillion. “The interest costs alone will reach $743 billion a year, more than we are currently spending on Social Security, Medicare or national defense, even under the benign assumption of no inflationary increase or adverse bond-market reaction.”
As we dive into the crucible of October, these daunting statistics will be driven home by Governor Romney in the debates and the GOP party apparatus across the nation, supported by a wave of activists, a diverse yet coherent coalition of social, economic and defense conservatives representing the majority of American voters.
About the Author
G. Tracy Mehan, III served at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the administrations of both Presidents Bush. He is a consultant in Arlington, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at George Mason University School of Law.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (34) | Leave a comment
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Joellen| 9.24.12 @ 6:46AM
Truly by now every American should know what this marxist regime is up to and we have no choice but to vote Romney/Ryan. And no that does mean it's a terrible choice, I happen to like Paul Ryan very much. Romney wasnt my first choice, in the primary, but heck he is now. Anyways, why this author brought up Noonan & Scarsboro is questionable, and why he didnt throw in that meeley mouth Crystal is again questionable. All three are RINO's to the core and need to be pulicly scorned. It's a no brainer folks get everyone you know out to vote the Marxist out PERIOD. Good morning to all y the way. I
Occam's Tool| 9.24.12 @ 6:08PM
We are opposing vermin. This isn't Nixon/Kennedy, between two veterans who were pro-America and pro-prosperity.
We have a choice between a decent human being and a traitor.
TLP| 9.24.12 @ 7:02AM
Bill Kristol is more Woman than Man. I bet the Cuticles on his fingers are Perfect. And, not just Perfect - Super Model Perfect. He's probably never done a Real Day's Work - MAN WORK/DIRTY WORK in his miserable life.
Brit Hume - Ditto. Dick Morris? I've met him. He's a Cream Puff. They wouldn't know a Working Man, if he was Kicking their Ass. When they go out to eat, they're not using a Coupon, and they can't see the cook making their "Whatever" on the other side of the Counter. "I'll have Mineral Water with lemon" as opposed to a Budweiser and 3 Root Beers for the kids. (Do any of these Metros even HAVE any Kids? And, I'm talking Elementary School Kids. Middle School Kids who play BASEBALL (Soccer's for Girls) and need New Clothes everytime you turn around.)
There's a Story up on Drudge - "Shock Poll - Pennsylvania - O 47% / R45%.
There was a Story in The Daily Caller this weekend. Up to 300 Coal Fired Electric Generating Plants are in line for ELIMINATION. In Ohio, and North Carolina, and PENNSYLVANIA. (Oops.) This goes along with the Coal Mine that President Cckscr shut down, just last week.
Our GOP Best and Brightest can't fathom this. A Coal Mine? We get Electricity from Coal? I thought we got it out of that Wall Socket Thingy. They couldn't be more outta touch, if they were John Kerry's personal Arugula Chef, or Joe Biden's Speach Writer.
Gary B| 9.24.12 @ 7:15AM
To quote the title of Andrew Wilson's article, they don't have a care in the world. Everyone in DC - the ruling class -is doing just fine. They get up each morning at 10am, play a little Kabuki to fool the rest of us into thinking there really are two political parties, then have cocktails together at night. They can't believe how easy it's been all these years to shakedown taxpayers with bullshit stories. They will continue subtracting our freedom until they are forced to stop.
TLP| 9.24.12 @ 7:41AM
Reagan won the Union Vote. He won New York and California. Michigan and Illinois. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
As hard as the Democrat Party has worked to turn us into South Central L.A. there are still Americans who want a PAYCHECK. A JOB, wherebye they can Provide for their Families THEMSELVES.
I don't care what Colour they are, people want to be Paid for doing things. For Work, and not just for Voting for Democrats every 2 Years. The Left seeks to Domesticate all of us, as they have the Once Proud Black Community.
They seek to turn us into PETS. They want to Feed Us what THEY decide we should Eat, and House Us, and give us Treats when we Come, Sit, Roll Over, and BEG. All they ask for is Obedience on Election Day. We've pretty much Lost the Blacks, and they are trying to assimilate the Hispanics, as well, with promises of Something for Nothing.
I look at these "Communities" and I see the Warsaw Ghetto.
Romney's gonna win. And, if you don't think so, and you're NOT VOTING for Magic Negro Boy?
Then STFU.
Go be a Fly in the Ointment someplace else.
Or just Kill Yourself.
I can't believe that you'd be missed.
Joellen| 9.24.12 @ 9:25AM
Welcome Back Tim:) On Britt Hume, I used to really like him. I dont know what happened, maybe its the water in DC. He did have a son who committed sucide; maybe that changed his perspective on things - dont know. Who I do miss terribly is Tony Snow - now that was a conservative you could count on.
Gary B| 9.24.12 @ 2:54PM
Britt Hume must have gravitas (the Democrats taught that word to me), 'cause the Fox News hosts treat him with reverence. No one interrupts him. I used to really like him, too. Not so much any more.
Von Mises Jr| 9.24.12 @ 9:33AM
Dick Morris along with Rush have been predicting a landslide victory for Romney/Ryan, or at least floating the idea numerous times. Morris explains how the polls are based on an outlier 2008 turnout and bias weighted averages along with registered versus likely voters. They are "ASTROTURF POLLS."
Kristol and Hume should be banished. They can take Rove and Jeb with them to Malta. I turn the channel when any of these RINO elitist appear on TV. In fact, I don't even watch FOX except the Fox Business News with Cavuto or Dobbs. The rest have been intimidated or castrated.
Maxwell| 9.24.12 @ 10:21AM
TLP, I have to respond to your post. This weekend Lori asked me while reading on-line news, do any of these guys have any real world experience? Do they or their wives know what it is like to count their dimes and pennies? I could only answer no. Not one of them has had to get their nails so full of grease that no matter how many times they cleaned them with DL hand cleaner, only the passage of time got them presentable again.
I still don't see how with the real unemployment close to 19% how Barry get a tie in the poll. I am so ticked I'm voting 5 times!
Gary B| 9.24.12 @ 7:05AM
If the press is giving Obama hundreds of millions of dollars of free cheer leading 24/7 and slandering Romney every chance it gets and Obama is just breaking even in rigged polls, I'd say Romney is doing pretty darn well.
If an incumbent president isn't polling better than a challenger this
Gary B| 9.24.12 @ 7:16AM
(Failed to delete last line...)
Pecos Pete| 9.24.12 @ 7:27AM
The MSM will not provide truth. Obama voters will vote for the smile and the Queen's new dress. Fairness will prevail and class warfare is the theme of the Obama campaign. They are preaching to people who believe that there is a fairy godmother. The question is: Are there enough of these voters to elect Obama?
I agree with Gary B above, R&R are doing pretty darn well when faced with lies and MSM cheer leading. Polls by liberal organizations are meaningless. R&R can win.
Appleby| 9.24.12 @ 7:32AM
My family that votes is voting for Paul Ryan. But I am hearing from my American friends what I have heard from my Canadian colleagues over the past 14 years. "What's the use?" they say. "Nothing will change. Nothing ever changes." They know that the targets we vote for are not in charge; and the apparatchiks and nomenklatura in the background are the ones destroying the country. So far our folks who still believe it's important to vote are holding their noses. But the young people with the three jobs and the young families are shrugging and saying "What's the use?"
Stephie| 9.24.12 @ 8:07AM
And those who will not vote, be damned.
Gary B| 9.24.12 @ 8:34AM
Appleby: It's tempting to succumb to the "what's-the-use" point of view. This is especially true for conservatives, who are betrayed at every turn. But, I offer this observation for your perusal. If elections didn't matter, why would Democrats be so desperate to rig the outcome? Granted, outcomes in favor of conservative principles are inevitably diluted, but national elections reveal to the world the sentiment of Americans with enough gumption to vote.
Regarding the constant selling out of conservative intentions, what can't go on won't go on. The "other people" part of the "other people's money" is getting angrier by the minute.
spike59| 9.24.12 @ 9:26AM
But the young people with the three jobs and the young families are shrugging and saying "What's the use?"
------------------------------------
these are the people who truly deserve whatever happens; the bottom line is-
-a vote for Obama is a vote for Obama
-a vote for 'third party' is a vote for Obama
-sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Obama
-the only vote that will move the needle in this election away from Obama is a vote for Romney
it may not be pleasant; the truth is often that way
Gary B| 9.24.12 @ 2:59PM
"the only vote that will move the needle in this election away from Obama is a vote for Romney"
Right. This is not the year for a third party. If Romney et al turn their backs on conservative principles, then the GOP will have to be taught a serious lesson. But, you say, the Democrats will win. So what. If there is virtually no difference between them, then who cares.
Occam's Tool| 9.24.12 @ 6:12PM
Spike: we need to spike 'em. Personally, I feel the guy from Michigan needs a rabid attack wolverine on his staff to come up with something horrible EVERY DAY on Obama. Discuss his relationship with, oh, say COMMUNISTS! A Different ONE each DAY!
spike59| 9.25.12 @ 6:32AM
i'm wondering...where is Christie? where is Newt? have they moved off-planet? Rubio has been out there, but muted...Santorum seems to be the only one of the 2012 GOP contenders who's saying much of anything
Occam's Tool| 9.24.12 @ 6:10PM
Because, my dear Appleby, it could get far, far worse, madam. I do hope you will change your mind, and, if you find yourself in NW Minnesota (or will find yourself), contact my beloved friend Ken, who will contact me. I will buy you a steak with trimmings, madam, regardless of how you vote. BUT do consider Romney, because the other is a traitor.
c. j. acworth| 9.24.12 @ 7:51AM
Ignore the polls, just GET TO the polls. The only one that counts is in November.
KennesawJack| 9.24.12 @ 4:39PM
Amen and Amen.
roadrunner| 9.24.12 @ 11:58AM
I hope that I am wrong, but the more this campaign plays out, the more concerned I am that this election is boiling down to a battle between the "Haves" and the "Have Nots" with Obama promising to use "Big Government" as the great equalizer.
Depending on the mood of the "Have Nots", this may not be a battle we can win as there seems to be more of them than there are of us.
Mike G| 9.24.12 @ 2:52PM
"As we dive into the crucible of October, these daunting statistics will be driven home by Governor Romney..."
I'd like to believe this, but Romney hasn't hammered home ANY of the issues that Obama is handing him, i.e. the failed foreign policy, lack of a realistic budget, infringement of our rights, excess regulation, etc. If Romney wants to win, he's going to have to do a complete 180 and really get after Obama on the issues, and ignore the drivel the LSM want to dwell on. Take a page from Gingrich's playbook and refuse to play their game; stop playing defense and go on offense.
PolishKnight| 9.24.12 @ 4:02PM
Obama is successfully playing the class warfare angle with two claims (one of them clearly false):
1) Romney is trying to raise taxes on the "middle class" by $2k (false)
2) Romney "outsourced" jobs to Asia via Bain (probably true).
Romney should hit back on number 1 and show it's false and that Obama is raising taxes on the middle class (will hurt Obama badly) and for number 2, that's a bit more tricky since both Obama and Romney LOVE outsourcing for various reasons (they both have cronies that kickback money to them) and Obama's promise to cut back on outsourcing is insincere.
Bottom line: If Romney can't win this election, then the Republican party as we know it is through. They'll never win another election with boilerplate, simplistic "no new taxes" campaigns. In a way, I welcome it because it will mean either the Republican will die and the Democrat party will see a sort of civil war between their various special interest constituencies OR the republican party will need to start adopting the issues I think are long overdue: Discrimination against their core constituency (white males), feminism, and illegal immigration.
One thing is for sure: The stakes for 2012 are pretty high. Hold on, it's going to be a bumpy ride!
cicero| 9.24.12 @ 4:16PM
I agree with the author on this one. While both parties are casting about, a large majority of the voting public may actually be paying attention. The Dems think that they can take the Catholic and Jewish vote for granted, andd are pandering the the extremes. However, their position on abortion - pre and post birth and everthing up to and in between - may appeal to the fringe, but makes the vast majority of Americans cringe. While they may be for "choice", it is only up to a point. The same goes for things such as the "work" requirement for welfare. Name an issue, and the Dems are playing for the extreme left fringe, believing that the vast middle will stay with them. It just isn't so.
Romney need only stay with conservative (even luke warm) principles, and he will carry the base, and the middle. Listen to his speeches. Before the Hispanic group last Friday, he was good. I would have preferredd to hear him say that he was going to reduce the Fed beaurocracy 10% per year at once, instead of by atrition, but it is a start. Right now, the media isn't even covering his or Ryan's speaches, except in "gotcha" bites. Hopefully that will change.
While I am at it, it would help if the conservative media would just report what R&R say, rather than repeat what the left spins, and then complain that the message isn't getting out. We already know that the media is biased. We don't have to be told every three minutes (Hannity).
KennesawJack| 9.24.12 @ 4:37PM
Tracy, Why have we not trumpeted the sealed college records of Obamarx? I think if they're released, he's toast. You know he has something in there he wants no one to see. Question; if he filed an application for a Fulbright Scholarship wouldn't that be accessible through the Freedom of Information Act and, if so, why in the Hell hasn't our side filed a request for release? Are the Dems the ONLY F**KING ONES KNOW HOW TO PLAY HARDBALL? I think Romney does but I think his advisors are a bunch of girley men. We should be SCREAMING for those records day in, day out, 24/7.
wrongheifer| 9.24.12 @ 5:25PM
I'm more excited than ever about a Romney-Ryan administration! We will win this thing! We will re-apply the rules of the law and the Constitution and we'll demand truth from our media or we'll dissolve them...Simple...Honest...TRUTH!
threeleafclover| 9.25.12 @ 12:41AM
Greg Gutfeld says (and I hope he is right) that polls don't mean much if you consider the"curtain" factor. There are people who still will not say aloud, to this day, they don't like Obama as president. But when they pull the curtain on the voting booth, they will say. Exit polls will be false, too.
Odd that 47%-45% used to be called a statistical tie and now they say Obama is beating Romney in Pennsylvania.
Notice too, that polls used to ask only who you were for but now they have it divided up into foreign policy, domestic, economy, personal likability. It surprises me that some enterprising pollster hasn't found out what cologne each candidate wears, "Half-Black &Hot;" (custom blend) or drug store Old Spice.
I am beginning to wish there were a 30-day Ambien - not a prescription for 30 pills - I want one that will put me to sleep for thirty days. I could fill out my absentee ballot and take the A-train.. Of course, I'd run the risk of never waking up. Tom Brokaw claims to have taken 1/2 an Ambien and he got so goofy they took him to the Emergency Room.
Occam's Tool| 9.26.12 @ 4:28PM
A lot of these people who have had problems with Ambien...I suspect that Ambien wasn't the only thing they took.
threeleafclover| 9.25.12 @ 12:58AM
Kennesaw Jack: There is still October. Known for its surprises. Obama no doubt has one. Perhaps Romney has or plans to run ads showing his college degrees, grades, etc - saying "Now, show us yours" If he wanted to be really crass, Romney could say, "I gave my inherited wealth to charity. What I have today, I made on my own and not with a couple of ghost written books full of lies."
One big stumbling block. Romney is a gentleman.
Occam's Tool| 9.26.12 @ 4:30PM
Given that Romney was Valedictorian of his College Class at BYU, and then took a combined MBA/JD course at Harvard and graduated with honors in both parts, I don't think Bammy wants to compare grades. One can pad one's law school average up with easy As from the School of Education at HLS, ya know. I doubt Romney did that.