It may be shocking to some, but the Commander of Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was correct when he said a few
days ago that Israel can not survive a nuclear weapon attack. He
didn’t add, but it is certainly true, that these need only be lower
yield devices. A brief study of the industrial topography and
demography of Israel shows that a minimal number (3-4) well
targeted nuclear weapons would leave Israel inoperable as a modern
state.
President Obama clearly has been provided with adequate
technical intelligence to inform him of the details involved. Iran
already has adequate delivery systems as outlined by Secretary of
Defense Leon Panetta last February when he referred to the
effective operational state of the Shahab-3 and the medium range
ballistic missile, Ashura, as being able to hit Israel and Eastern
Europe. The White House knows that Israel is in danger of
obliteration if Iran is allowed to launch even a modest attack on
Israel. So far the American presidential response appears to be,
“Iran knows the U.S. will respond appropriately, and that is
adequate deterrence.”
The theoretical punitive response by Washington would be too
late to save the continued existence of Israel. While the
threatened U.S. counterattack might destroy Iranian nuclear
development facilities, in order to have a serious lasting impact
the economic base of Iran would have to be destroyed. Its oil
production and distribution facilities would have to be targeted
for demolition. Such an action defines the term “counter-productive
” if the international importance of Persian oil resources are
taken into consideration. And, of course, Israel would be in
ashes.
To be specific about Iran’s current nuclear weapon capability,
one need only refer to the recent report of the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): “Iran… has produced 418 pounds of 20%
enriched uranium.” This uranium could be converted to weapons grade
product before the end of this year. This is an increase over the
321 pounds of similar grade uranium reported available in May 2012.
More importantly, the IAEA reported a doubling of the enrichment
centrifuges since May, bringing the total to 2,140 at the advanced
nuclear facility a Fordo, a deep buried mountain site outside the
ancient city of Qom.
Fifty-five pounds of 90% enriched uranium is considered
necessary to construct one nuclear explosive device. Taking 20%
enrichment up to 90% weapons grade has been referred to as not
difficult and solely dependent on processing time. With the
increased number of centrifuges in operation reported by the IAEA,
the calculation has been made that it would have take no more than
a few months for the Iranians to accomplish this. Prime Minister
Netanyahu has said that the Iranians will have launch-capable
nuclear missiles in 6-7 months.
It is generally accepted in defense circles — and reported
earlier in this column — that the Iranians already have the
short-term capability of constructing several “Hiroshima” implosion
bombs. The issue at hand is the ability to construct smaller,
higher yield devices capable of being placed on, and detonated
from, the existing medium-range Iranian missiles. The IGRC already
have enough of these appropriately-ranged and target-guided
missiles to simultaneously hit all of Israel’s scientific and
production centers as well as its various deep bunkered military
installations.
Pentagon sources have indicated it’s not difficult technically
to calculate how quickly Iranian scientists and technicians could
handcraft the needed marriage of high-weaponized explosive product
and the guided missile-connected delivery system. This information
is well known by all existing nuclear-armed countries. This is why
the intensity level of anxiety on the international scene has risen
so sharply in the past few months.
The only mystery still extant is how this nearly open secret has
been so successfully kept from publication. The reason is that such
information is tantamount to pulling the trigger on a holocaust
that Iran is not yet prepared to create — even on Israel. And
against which the Israelis are not yet fully ready to defend. The
problem that the Israel Defense Command and PM Netanyahu face is
whether they can fully destroy Iran’s offensive capability aimed at
Israel and/or effectively defend against the expected Iranian
counter-thrust to an Israeli preemptive attack. One thing is
certain: Israel can not and will not depend on the current American
administration to assist in Israel’s initial attack.
Considerable emphasis has been placed on the White House’s
desire for Israel to wait until after the American presidential
election before taking any offensive action. A new logic has been
introduced by events in many Moslem capitals following the original
riots in Cairo and the assault on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi.
If anything, the Obama Administration has hardened its position
against Israeli military action against Iran. In turn, however, the
Israeli choices have been reduced as Tehran now has the chance to
exploit the anti-American/anti-Israel political support engendered
by the wave of “holy war” spirit contained in the widespread
radical Islamic demonstrations and attacks.
In brief, the Iranians do not fear the potential of an Israeli
counterstrike. There is consequently nothing but Tehran’s own
current technical limitations to restrain the initiation of a
Persian first strike nuclear attack on Israel’s key centers. Bibi
Netanyahu knows this and so do his military strategists. As soon as
Israel has the wherewithal to effect an initial strike wiping out
Iranian nuclear weapon-launching capability, the strategic instinct
would have to be to do it as soon as they can. The question is:
When can Israel be sure it can destroy all of Iran’s
nuclear launch assets?
