They say the economy is moving in the right direction, that we
should stay the course, be patient, that it takes time to pull out
of the recession that began in late 2007.
In fact, things are getting worse.
The economy was creating 153,000 new jobs per month last year.
That dropped during the first seven months of this year to an
average of 139,000 per month. In August, we were down to
96,000.
It takes over 100,000 new jobs per month just to stay even with
the number of people entering the labor force. It would take double
that number for over a decade to bring today’s jobless rate down to
the unemployment levels of 2007.
Factory payrolls were cut by 15,000 in August, the biggest
decline in two years and a strong reversal of the 23,000 gain in
factory payrolls in July.
The dip in the official unemployment rate from 8.3 percent in
July to 8.1 percent in August was due to 368,000 people dropping
out of the labor force.
The labor participation rate, the share of the working-age
population in the labor force (as either employed or unemployed),
dropped to 63.5 percent in August, the lowest labor participation
rate in over three decades.
This decline in the labor participation rate, the increase in
dropping out, is due in large part to the extended duration of
unemployment in the current economy. “The average length out of the
job market continues to be a stunning 39 weeks,” reported the
Wall Street Journal (“The Jobs Deficit,” September 10,
2012), “compared to an average duration of between 15 and 20 weeks
from 1984-2008.”
Today’s unemployment rate would be 10.1 percent if the labor
participation rate was the same as it was in February 2010, when
the job market allegedly bottomed.
And that’s not counting the officially estimated 8.0 million
people who were classified as “involuntary part-time workers” by
the Labor Department in August, i.e., workers with “hours cut” and
people working part-time and “unable” to find full-time work, all
not counted as unemployed.
Economic growth, too, is moving in the wrong d irection. After
expanding at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of
2011, economic growth slowed to 2.1 percent during the first three
months of 2012, and slowed again to 1.7 percent from April through
June of this year.
It takes double the 1.7 percent rate of growth to bring down the
unemployment rate.
Measured against previous recessions and recoveries, federal
reports show we’re doing about half as well as average. “The Joint
Economic Committee reports that private payrolls have climbed only
4.3 percent in the last 30 months compared to a rate of 8.3 percent
over a comparable time period for the other nine recoveries since
World War II,” reports the Wall Street Journal.
Over the past year, the average annual wage increase of 1.7
percent was the lowest increase in three decades, and too low to
stay even with inflation.
Gasoline prices hit $3.80 per gallon on Labor Day, the highest
price ever recorded during a Labor Day weekend — and double the
$1.79 price on Inauguration Day, January 20, 2009.
Retail food prices rose 3.7 percent last year. This year, the
U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting a 3.5 percent to 4.5
percent increase in beef prices.
The impact of this failing economy on paychecks? Income data
from the Census Bureau show that the median household income,
adjusted for inflation, dropped by $4,019 from January 2009 to June
2012.
