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Streetcar Line
Oracle: Obama — Owing to Ohio
Semi-final analysis: risks for Romney and Republicans.
While presidential debates obviously can make a big difference in determining the election, they usually only make a small difference. Based on how things stand now and how I expect the campaign to develop for the last eight weeks, my semi-final prediction — quite disturbingly — is that Barack Obama will be re-elected president with 274 electoral votes to 264 for Mitt Romney. The popular votes will go 48.8 percent for Obama, 48.5 percent for Romney, and 2.7 percent for all other candidates combined.
The first saving grace (for a conservative) is that this is obviously a close enough result that Romney can still turn it around. To do it, he’ll need to do a better job using smaller “wedge” issues than he is doing. The second saving grace is that my analysis assumes a razor-thin victory in Ohio for Obama. If that tiny margin is reversed, which it could well be, Romney could win, like George W. Bush against Al Gore, even while Obama wins slightly more popular votes. (The civil unrest this could cause, by the way, is rather frightening to contemplate.)
First, here is how I see the states breaking down. In addition to the usual Democratic states of California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, New Jersey, Maryland, D.C., and Delaware, Obama in this scenario also wins swing (or swing-ish) states Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and (perhaps by virtue of shenanigans in Cuyahoga County) Ohio.
Romney would win Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, the entire Deep South below Virginia (including Florida), the mountain states of Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia, along with swing states Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Under this scenario, the states other than Ohio or the obvious one of Virginia that could most likely make Romney a winner by switching his way are Nevada or New Mexico. Oddly, Connecticut also bears watching, in the same way the Pennsylvania and Michigan do — although none are likely.
Now, how can Romney pull off the victory anyway? By mobilizing discrete groups of voters who might be unexcited or might wish a pox on both parties, but who will be motivated to turn out (rather than stay home, or go hunting, or whatever) and vote for a candidate who shows commitment to a particular issue stance.
Taking a page from Newt Gingrich’s playbook, Romney could easily identify such issues where a clear majority of voters agree with conservatives. Among these might be voter identification (especially using Democratic Rhode Island’s voter-ID law as an example of a good, bipartisan approach), the growing stench from the Justice Department on a host of issues beginning with the Fast-and-Furious scandal, or the threat to religious liberty as exemplified not only by the infamous HHS abortifacient mandate but also by the Hosanna-Tabor case and any number of cases of trampled conscience protections that are being fought by the Alliance Defending Freedom or the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty. For that matter, it is a mystery why Republican presidential candidates repeatedly fail to make the issue of judges a big deal — because the majority of Americans agree with conservatives both on the role of judges and on most of the “issues” around which controversial judicial decisions tend to focus.
Romney could also further energize Tea Partiers by promising, especially in targeted mailings, that while he of course thinks states should be free to adopt the Common Core education standards if they so desire, he will absolutely ensure they feel no pressure or incentive from the federal government to do so.
Romney also could turn the tables on Obama by making an issue of Democrats’ extremism on abortion, although that carries obvious risks. He certainly should do a far better job making the popular conservative case on energy, by going beyond a mere “let’s drill here” message to an explanation of why and how the United States can approach energy independence. (Answers: shale, and natural gas offshore of Virginia and other states that want it.)
Meanwhile, the biggest mystery of all is why Romney has so far made so little an issue of Obamacare. Going on the offensive against its unpopular aspects could really drive voters his way. He should do a series of ads on the individual mandate/tax, on the Independent Payment Advisory Board, and especially on the medical device tax that will hit pacemakers, wheelchairs, insulin pumps, and other technology vital to the lifestyle and/or the very lives of millions of Americans. This could, indeed should, be the biggest “sleeper issue” of the election.
Romney should accompany these anti-Obamacare messages with ads explaining that he and Paul Ryan do have plans to replace Obama’s monstrosity — insurance sales across state lines, tax breaks for health insurance purchases by individuals, even perhaps some small, means-tested subsidies for starting up health savings accounts.
And those are just several examples from a longer list of possibly winning issues. My theory about persuadable voters this year is that they really want to, yes, be persuaded: They want their minds engaged, so they understand how the candidates propose to improve the economy. Think of these voters like a jury, looking not for a scholarly dissertation but nonetheless for a fact-based narrative that convinces them one side’s case is better. What Morton Blackwell’s Leadership Institute always teaches is true: Good policies are good politics.
This is what Bill Clinton understood when he took the stage at the Democratic National Convention last week. While Clinton used a series of four-fifths truths, shaded in ways that were misleading but that sounded utterly convincing, he absolutely did use a lot of real facts and inductive (faux-) logic to make a powerful case for Obama. Indeed, I think the solid convention “bounce” Obama has enjoyed in recent polls, about which smart conservatives are justly concerned, owes more to Clinton’s effective pro-Obama intervention than to any other single cause.
Romney’s convention speech, meanwhile, barely made a case on issues at all, relegating them to about a single sentence each on five separate promises that were more aspirational than transactional. Again, he failed to provide, in any way, shape or form, any real details of the “how” of a Romney recovery.
Nobody is suggesting that Romney run a policy-wonk’s campaign. He can and should, however, use issues as powerful attractants, providing enough commonsense explanation on each that “swing” voters see the proverbial light bulbs turn on in their heads.
Otherwise, an excruciatingly close Romney loss will likely occur, thus relegating all of us to a new term for a radical president no longer hindered in his aims by the need to be re-elected. Obama’s ascendance in Ohio would thus threaten a serious low point for American constitutional government.
About the Author
Quin Hillyer is a senior editor of The American Spectator and a senior fellow at the Center for Individual Freedom. Follow him on Twitter @QuinHillyer.
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Gary B| 9.11.12 @ 7:09AM
If Obama wins, it means America's productive workers will have lost to America's moochers and moral society will have lost to moral relativism.
Perhaps the "teacher" strike in Chicago is a picture of our future - bureaucrats holding productive citizens hostage to their entitlement mentality. The state takes over everything.
Jack in Wi| 9.11.12 @ 7:23AM
Quin makes a lot of very good points. Romney has to take a lot more chances to win this election. The issues of abortion and gay marriage have to be driven home. That can be done with tough 3rd party pact adds. The most important issue he has to change his strategy on is foreign policy. I have writtten extensively on this issue under Arron Goldstein's column, and won't repeat myself. I can say right now that Romney will lose Wi. If he does not moderate his foreign policy positions. He has the chance to win the whole Mid West if he gives up some of the extreme foreign policy views of his chickenhwak advisors. I think Illinois is in play. The public employee unions are destroying the state. A conservative was almost elected governor in the 2010 election. It time for Romney to swing for the fences, not try to bunt for a single.
vtwin| 9.11.12 @ 8:01AM
Jack, for most Americans this is an economic not a foreign policy election. Illinois?
Jack in Wi| 9.11.12 @ 8:36AM
Illinois is a disaster and so is California. So is Conneticut and most states run by the Democrats and their public employee union pals. It is the best chance the Republicans have to ever come back in these states. Illinois used to be a Republican state so did a lot more. It is time to do what we did in Wi. and call their bluff. There can never be a return to fiscal sanity, on the state level, unless the public unions are throttled.
squalis| 9.11.12 @ 9:29AM
By your logic, CA should go red this election cyle. Somehow, just don't think that's gonna happen.
Jack in Wi| 9.11.12 @ 10:57AM
California could be in the mix if the Reepublicans would spend the time and money there. The South used to be hugely Democrat. California and New England were very Republican. The voting patterns change back and forth in various regions. The rule of the Democrats and their union allies have left most states bankrupt with huge taxes and fiscal nightmares.
RCV| 9.11.12 @ 2:00PM
There is no chance for GOP gains in California given the national platform.
DemThisTimeAround| 9.11.12 @ 5:57PM
I'm gonna stay calm and Obama on.
That's my slogan, and you might as well adopt it 'cause Romney, according to all the polls, is a loser.
Stay calm and Obama on!
Jacob McCandles| 9.11.12 @ 8:47AM
The economy doesn't matter as much as it used to. There is no sting to poverty in 2012. Many people have discovered that work is no longer necessary. Out of a job? Hussein will extend unemployment. No insurance? Government. Social Security disability can be obtained by any able-bodied person who can read and game the system.
The media has failed to inform these people that we are borrowing most of every dollar we spend on them. And, unlike the PIIGS, there will be no German bailout for us. The consequences will be severe for our kids.
Gary B| 9.11.12 @ 10:17AM
The basic argument (sales pitch) must focus on lifting our society from the moral dump it's in. Everything else follows that. Positioning The Muslim and Bill Clinton as cheerleaders for irresponsible and illegal behavior is as easy as falling off a log. Simply cite their records; use their own words and actions against them. Will the establishment consultants blowing in Romney's ear actually recommend that? Doubt it...
As for everybody's precious independents... forget them. Pretend they don't exist. Just paint Obama for the anti-American creep he is and let the rest take care of itself.
Joellen| 9.11.12 @ 10:04AM
Actually, I agree with Jack, it is a moral issue. Abortion is morally wrong and proves to be a major reason as to why we are in this mess. We turned our backs on ABBA FATHER by destroying the most innocent in the womb and we expect GOD's blessing? We make a mockery of marriage and proclaim homosexuality normal and we doubt GOD's judgements? We remove GOD from our platform not once, not twice but THREE TIMES and we dont expect the wrath of GOD? If that is so, then we are truly a doomed society. However, just like always, there will be a small group of GOD fearing folks, who will bring us back to GLORY, I pray it is in my lifetime.
Gary B| 9.11.12 @ 10:24AM
Yes... it's a moral issue. It runs all through our society. Every poll supports that. So make it the centerpiece of the campaign. Obama is defenseless on this. Getting into details on how the Republicans will restore the economy is a trap because it automatically invokes the image of The Mean Republican. Don't do that!
canuckistani| 9.11.12 @ 8:25AM
Driving home abortion and gay marriage will only alienate the independent voter that has already calculated that Willard is as unreliable on these issues as any RINO. The Akins and O'Donnell's of the world have made a mess with their ham-handed efforts.
Polls already show that BHO has the lead on managing the economy and the tax situation. The jobs situation is embedded into the number, and likeability has eluded Willard so far. The numbers show the Willard narrative has eroded due to his convention performance. Very bad signal.
Ryan has not withstood the expected national enema-like probing into his record and faux alignment with Willard. He has performed badly when easily trapped by Willard's equivocations on every issue, and Ryan's lack of executive leadership pushes him into circular policy arguments that a) put the base to sleep and b) confuse the independent.
Axiom: if yer splainin' yer losin'.
The active shunning of baggers in Tampa will have a drag down ballot. AmSpec needs to shelve the Willard question and refocus on Congress and Senate.
Jack in Wi| 9.11.12 @ 8:46AM
Nonsense: 80% by polling is against the extreme positions of the Democrats on abortion. It is why Republicans have been competitive for the last 32 years. Gay marriage is another massive loser. It has failed to pass in over 30 elections in this country, including liberal states like California, Washington and Maine. It will lose again in Washington and maine in this election and make the Republicans competitive in those states. Romney has a great opportunity. Will he blow it? Probably because he is playing it safe.
Another issue with great pubic support is auditing the Federal Reserve. Huge majorities want it done. Romney has come out for it. Yet in his convention speech he failed to mention it. Why is that? Well what do you expect when we have candidates in both parties owned by the banksters and plutocrats?
squalis| 9.11.12 @ 9:34AM
In the words of John McEnroe-You can't be serious! I would bet more than half this country's eligible voters have never heard of the Federal Reserve and don't have a clue about its function in the economy. That won't win over any votes. I never understand why campaigning Republicans don't use simple math to combat the absurd claims of Dems that raising taxes will solve our problems.
Jack in Wi| 9.11.12 @ 11:03AM
By polling vast majorities want the Federal Reserve audited. Ron Paul and the collapsing economy have made it a huge issue. Romney can own it. It is in the Republican platform and he has come out for it. It is time for Romney to use this issue to his advantage. He will if he wants to win. Again he has to swing for the fences.
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:02AM
I think you are wrong. The eligible voters is not what counts as most of them will not vote. The likely voters when polled by I think Rasmussen (I could be wrong) do know what the Fed is and they want it curtailed.
Purp| 9.11.12 @ 3:00PM
Good analysis Canuck ...
not one mention of the Tea Party or our Troops at War in Tampa - and the country noticed ...
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:04AM
Yeah. Why the hell WAS that? Romney seems more and more clueless -- the ghost of John S. McCain.
RCV| 9.11.12 @ 11:25AM
A political genius, you are not, Jack. Romney's decline and stagnation in the polls is precisely due to the GOP's focus away from the economy and onto social issues. It's a losing playing field for them.
Drunken Sailor| 9.11.12 @ 12:04PM
Agreed. Hit on th economy
Purp| 9.11.12 @ 3:02PM
Too late, the bad economy is already baked in, isn't blamed on Obama and Trickle Down Bush-on-Steroids Romneyomics isn't selling.
Drunken Sailor| 9.11.12 @ 3:35PM
Go back to the head shop
CJW| 9.11.12 @ 12:37PM
Jack
You have advice every day for Romney.
So, who are you voitng for, Obama or Romney?
Purp| 9.11.12 @ 2:59PM
Illinois? Good luck with that... ha
CJW| 9.11.12 @ 3:39PM
Purpie/Canuck/Jack, whatevr
On this we agree. Illinois is beyond hope. Even when the Republicans win the vote, as in 1960, the Chicago machine steals the election.
Purp| 9.11.12 @ 2:55PM
You're a sniveling little idiot. You all are makers AND takers and you don't admit it. Talk about Right-Wing World mythology...
axbucxdu| 9.11.12 @ 10:07PM
And your prog philosophy is mathematically incoherent, i.e., uneconomic. A century of experimentation by busybodies like you has led the rest of us here, to monetary failure. Meanwhile, you and your useful ones chatter on and blithely ignore your immediate responsibility for it all. Not surprising, since your ideas are handicapped by arithmetic. Idiots and mythology, that's more like your cap, it fits prog, so you wear it, but proudly please, like one of your bud Mao's unfortunates.
When the boots wear out, purp, where are you and the ilk going to hide?
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 9.11.12 @ 4:24PM
The question is, with all the top notch Republicans in America, you run this Ken doll of a candidate?
axbucxdu| 9.11.12 @ 9:41PM
The top notch is standing by and waiting to pick up whatever's left in 2016. They're waiting for those new boots to wear out that the lumpen have been issued by the Obammer...and both will, the boots first followed immediately by the somnolent and the sycophant. Not a bad strajedy, eh? Now Al, do tell, who the hell you consider "top notch" in this collection of incompetents?????????
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:09AM
I think there are many who think that. Four more years of the Obozo and you will have enough democrats for a soccer team - - sad thing is you won't have a country either.
chuck| 9.11.12 @ 7:38AM
Romney will win in November, no doubt. The economy is terrible, and the American people vote their pocketbook.
Read Drudge this morning. The latest CNN poll shows Obama up by 6, but it badly over samples Dems, and under samples Independents. Put in the correct number of Dems, Reps, and Ind., and the result is Romney +6.
The most important number? Romney leads with Independents, +12.
Obama is toast.
vtwin| 9.11.12 @ 7:51AM
Chuck, the economy is bad but getting better and the American people in poll after poll blame Bush not Obama so I’m going to different with you and Quin and predict an Obama victory in November with a popular vote in favor or Obama in excess of 50% and in the more important electoral college Obama will carry every state he carried in 2008 with the exception of Indiana, North Carolina, and the Nebraska split giving Obama 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
canuckistani| 9.11.12 @ 8:28AM
The critical litmus is how swing governors are betting on Willard.
Kasich has been the most obvious in his hedging, but Christie has disappeared, so has Scott, and O'Donnell is still wounded by his spectacular PR fail in the spring.
Watch Kasich closely. If he cuts bait, the election is a landslide.
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 8:51AM
Yeah, Chuck. The Economy's getting better.
All of The Muslim's Big Donours are getting Richer. It's amazing how well they're doing.
Did you know that Fannie and Freddie's very own Gang of Three - Jim Jones, Franlin Raines, and Eric Holder - all work for Obama?
It's true. The first two, whom the GAO stated Flatly, made almost $90 Million by "Cooking the Books" (GAO's words. Not mine.)
The last one Eric "My People" Holder, who, like the little Small Potatoes Weasel that he is, made a "mere" $6 Million, as I recall, in the same Scheme. Now he spends his time NOT PROSECUTING the People, and the Institutions that Wreaked Havoc on our Financial Markets, when he's not busy Running Guns to the Drug Cartels in Mexico.
John MFing Global Corzine is happy as a Pig in Sh*t, toiling away at Obama's House, Bundling Money. It's so much better than actually WORKING FOR A LIVING. Don't you agree?
Perhaps one of our Assfck Liberal friends can explain to us how, what MFing Global John Corzine did is any less a Big Deal, than what Bernie Madoff did?
Perhaps one of these Dicklicks will tell us why it's OKAY that he's working for their Ccksckr in Chief, instead of picking up Bars of Soap in a Federal Penitentiary shower, somewhere in Arizona? $1.6 Billion MISSING, and with Nothing, in the way of anything even CLOSE to a Plausible Explanation.
Maybe that Dicklick vtwin can explain the Organized Crime Atmosphere, that surrounds his Boy's Administration?
Just don't hold your breath.
Bob Grant| 9.11.12 @ 9:35AM
TLP,
It's almost a full time job keeping up with all of the lawless behavior surrounding the obama administration.
Thanks for reminding me of Corzine, who, as you point out, is being protected by Eric "A Nation of Cowards" Holder.
Most of the 1.6 billion dollars that "mysteriously" vanished was held by struggling small farmers. They will never recoup that money. Stolen from them in plain sight by a former Democratic Governor, Senator, and top economic adviser to obama.
Where's the bloody outrage???????
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 9:59AM
Where's the Bullet?
Maxwell| 9.11.12 @ 10:21AM
Bob Grant & TLP, good morning both. If you keep your eyes & ears open you can learn something every day, that is what Mama used to say. Just ran across something I never heard of, it is the
“Preliminary Benchmark Revision,” and despite that catchy name and the fact that it was highlighted with a box around it in last Friday’s report, reporters and analysts know little about it.
And they care even less, even though Labor explained in its release Friday that these revised numbers come from honest-to-goodness unemployment records kept by each state.
The above was from the New York Post on-line. Basically, all of the job numbers are fake and the real numbers will come out on September 27th. Will Mitt & crew pick up on this?
Bob Grant| 9.11.12 @ 11:36AM
Maxwell,
Thanks for the Post article. I Read it. It could be a game changer for Romney.
This "oops" report could essentially wipe out up to half the reported "new jobs created" claim by obama.
Although another stab in the heart to the American worker, it could be a final blow to The One, and be a signal that help's finally on the way via a new administration.
Purp| 9.11.12 @ 3:06PM
Bob - why no outrage about the Bush administration torturers that aren't being prosecuted? That's okay for Holder to look that other way?
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:11PM
They did their job.
They got the Fckface that cut Daniel Pearl's head off, and Masterminded the 911 attacks - Khalid Mohammed Ccksckr.
They prevented any further attacks on this Country.
After the Murders of 3,000 Innocent Americans?
I won't be happy until they Cut His Dick Off, Soak it in Pig's Blood, and Shove It Down His Throat.
Anything less, is a slap in the face of the 911 Families.
FCK YOU.
Bob Grant| 9.11.12 @ 4:25PM
What torture?
Gary B| 9.11.12 @ 5:18PM
Exactly... They put our own soldiers through waterboard training. Clinton providing presidential instruction to American teenagers that oral sex isn't really sex did more damage than this waterboarding distraction. I'm no fan of George Bush, but for Pete's sake, talk about something more important, like the freedom-killing Patriot Act.
Purp| 9.11.12 @ 3:05PM
Your first line is correct - and that's the election.
The rest is all "small ball" that only you care about.
You should start planning for 2016 - even the Republican pundits are writing this one off.
Even a winning performance in the debates isn't going to make Romney likable - in fact, if he takes it to Obama, he will turn off the middle and enrage the left and galvanize the Democratic base.
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:15AM
Claptrap!
Jacob McCandles| 9.11.12 @ 8:52AM
I think you are right, Chuck. I can tell you this, Romney will win Virginia. It's basically a red state if you take away a few cities and NOVA. And where it is republican, it is SOLID republican.
I do agree with the author that Clinton helped BHO. Unfortunately, many Americans still associate good economic times with the rapist.
Purp| 9.11.12 @ 2:57PM
Talk about delusional and wishful thinking ... In the last 2 days, Romney and Ryan have embraced Obamacare AND Legalizing Marijuana ...
Now there's a winning formula for a conservative, huh?
Alan Obama Fan Brooks | 9.11.12 @ 5:31PM
"Obama is toast."
And then four or eight years of Bush 3.0? Is that what you want?
chuck| 9.11.12 @ 9:41PM
Hell yes!
Bush averaged 5% unemployment. You buy, never under 8%. Obama: higher long-term unemployment, higher deficits, more regulation, higher gas prices, 50% black youth unemployment.
Please, please, give us back the Bush years. At least we were all working and making out a helluva lot better.
Simon Templar| 9.11.12 @ 8:37AM
Gee, just a few days ago, the NYT was dumping on the messiah, he was behind 15 points with the so-called independent vote CRITICAL for a win, his campaign was running a deficit, his approval ratings sinking, he was losing in many swing states, he was losing women and had lost the male vote. Two GD polls come out, one of which is being sued and intimidated by the DOJ and you are all ready to give up. It makes me sick to my stomach just how STUPID and gullible most of you so-called conservatives have become.
By the way these polls, idiots, are based on REGISTERED VOTERS NOT LIKELY VOTERS and the dems are more represented in the samples, morons!
Disgusting. Get a spine, Get some balls.
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 9:05AM
Word.
What The Saint just said.
Carter was ahead.
Dukakis was ahead.
Pelleas, Purp and AlancanIcallyoulaterI'mcoveredinvaselineandIcan'tgetthesehandcuffsunlocked like to Give Head.
Don't believe what you hear, or what you read (unless I write it)
Believe what you know to be true. Believe all of the people you know aren't working, are Losing their Jobs, their Homes, and their Reasons for Living.
Believe all of the Boarded Up Storefronts in the Malls, and on the Main Streets where you live.
Believe that everybody sees the Same Prices for Food and Fuel, and Fuel that's made from our Food, and they don't like it.
And, believe that Hundreds of Thousands of Union Workers, across this Country, are gonna go into those Voting Booths, and Vote FCK YOU to their Union Leadership, and Yes to Romney, and an opportunity to GO BACK TO WORK.
squalis| 9.11.12 @ 9:40AM
And don't believe much has changed since Nov. 2010.
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 10:02AM
Exactly.
And, which one of these Polls called that one right?
Drunken Sailor| 9.11.12 @ 10:41AM
Exactly Simon. And has anyone else noticed that RCP had very few polls in their spread after the Republican convention yet 5 polls within as many days when the Dem convention ended. And as you said, one that has Obama up by 5 points is being sued (pressured) by this administration, and the other (CNN), who has been in the tank for them since 2008 has them up by 6.
Both have been shown to be full of errors and skewed data. Give this time and see how thing change. With all the other polls showing a drop in enthusiasm, a shift to Romney in Hispanics and Jews as well as women voters, I find it hard to believe that Obama is even in the same park.
CJW| 9.11.12 @ 12:44PM
Simon,
There are many lefties masquerading as conservatives always criticizing Romney, why he can't win, why they can't vote for him, blah, blah.
Romney will carry Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida which will give him 266, according to RCP. Then he needs at least another state, such as Wisconsin to win.
Bubba got the lefties all excited, but the Bubba Bounce is temporary and fleeting. Obama is in trouble when he has to rely on Bubba to excite the base.
Bubba could not get Algore elected, nor Hillary nominated, and lost the 1994 House to the Reps. Bubba is the most overrated huckster in politics.
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:22AM
Well I admire your spirit and I do agree this is NOT over. However, Rasmussen IS likely voters and he also showed Obozo up buy 5 percentage points just like Gallup -- so its not all roses and chocolates. Right now Ronmey et al. are doing a P*SS POOR job and that is what bothers me. It is profoundly depressing to think that a freak show like the Charlotte convention could convince anyone to stay with Obummer - but you saw what happened.
Simon Templar| 9.11.12 @ 8:54AM
Every political indicator used in the last 50 years by the EXPERTS to determine the likelihood of reelection or election is against this fraud and traitor from unemployment numbers, independent votes, to the state of the economy. Every poll taken in the last 5 months has been trending against the fraud.
2010 seems to have disappeared from historical record and reality.
Now the trolls here will say anything and as expected and will be blowing smoke up your asses till election day. So, you are asking me just to forget every single piece of data and poll taken up till this weekend when somehow a miracle or dark spell perhaps has happened over a weekend?
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 9:08AM
50 Years.
That's just about the length of time that The Immigration Act of 1965 has been around, whittling away at our Cultural Fabric.
Coincidence?
I don't think so.
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:26AM
Simon Templar: "Every poll taken in the last 5 months has been trending against the fraud...."
That is totally wrong - -the polls have been back and forth and right now Obozo is leading in most of them even the good ones.
"...2010 seems to have disappeared from historical record and reality."
Not it has not. But right now there is fading proof that 2012 will look like 2010.
Stephie| 9.11.12 @ 9:13AM
The polls lie. Simple as that.
Indy| 9.11.12 @ 9:21AM
The polls are skewed, good analysis here of OH
http://datechguyblog.com/2012/.....mic-about/
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:29AM
Yeah I just saw that -- but I'm not 100% convinced.
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:28AM
That is a gross oversimplification. Rasmussen for example perdicted the 2008 national vote correct to within a few tenths of a percent and he also called every state right.
Bob Grant| 9.11.12 @ 9:16AM
The focus should be on obama's failure to address the TWO most pressing issues facing this country:
Jobs and the mortgage crisis!!!!
It goes beyond failure. He's been negligent. He hasn't met with his jobs council in over 7 months and - unbelievably - has made the mortgage crisis WORSE by not taking seriously the recommendations of the SIGTARP inspector AND by implementing the Dodd-Frank law which will make another banking crisis MORE likely, not less!!
The focus should primarily be on obama's incompetence, and the idea that whatever replaces that incompetence will be a vast improvement.
Racinrick| 9.11.12 @ 9:16AM
This is absurd. Why "conservative" pundits forecast the results with the intent of hallowing "the one" I'll never understand. Please decide whose team you're really on, or at least make some attempt to conceal it better.
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:15PM
Don't watch the TV Outlets.
Glenn, Rush, Hannity, and Levin.
That's all I use.
And, it's worked out pretty well, so far.
Simon Templar| 9.11.12 @ 9:26AM
For those with brains and spines...
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-G.....-No-Bounce
Kwan| 9.11.12 @ 9:28AM
The most accurate poll will be on November 6th when fed-up voters enter the polling booths, and decide that 4 more years of the Community Organizer is not an acceptable proposition.
JayDick| 9.11.12 @ 9:45AM
Somehow, Romney has to counter the lies about his positions, especially on taxes and Medicare. He doesn't have to say "Obama lies" (even though he does), but he has to say "here's what I propose". "No tax increases for the middle class, only cuts. And, under my Medicare proposal, you can still have regular Medicare if that's what you want, although the new plan will have some advantages."
Mike G| 9.11.12 @ 10:35AM
Agreed, but he also has to say what advantages the new plan will offer. And then he must use it to pound away at Obama.
Who Knows?| 9.11.12 @ 10:02AM
Ah, what I wouldn’t give for the good old days, when there was just the Gallup poll, say 1948 when Dewey “beat” Truman.
Politics is war.
Polls are weapons. Period.
While the educated among us bemoan the deconstruction of society, so that humans are squeezed out of the public education sausage factory tightly wrapped in the edible plastic “container”, knowing hardly any history, most voters are puffed up with high self-esteem. “I’m special!”
It’s time to get with the program!
Words don’t mean anything anymore--hello Alice in Wonderland.
As for taking polls seriously---what a sucker’s game!
And, there’s one born every minute---no, every nano second.
GIGO rules. The constant fight between order and chaos, production and consumption, supply and demand, creation and destruction---you name it---is especially intense NOW.
It’s a WW I trench warfare landscape, with the right against the left. It SHOULDN’T be even, but the left owns more weapons, so the battle SEEMS to be stalemated.
Polls are the equivalent of what machineguns were in WW I---3-dimensional waves of “bullets”, permeating mental space. Casualties abound, especially un-deconstructed truth.
George S| 9.11.12 @ 10:10AM
What has changed since 2010? Anyone notice that Spinal Tap Obama cannot fill an arena unless there is a puppet show? Where are all the political ads run by Democrats with them hugging Obama? Who would skip a convention nominating a winner? Has anyone won an election by parading radical feminists to the podium with rallying cries of free contraception and, as a bonus, infanticide?
What has changed since 2010? Are people's equity and assets increasing in value, along with a lowering unemployment and increasing job market that independents and some Republicans can afford to indulge their inner racist and vote for the cool guy under the styrofoam columns because they are simply bored by all the partisan strife? Again?
Would a winner openly support gay marriage less than a year from the election? Would a winner demand his opponent's tax records to distract from his record? Would a winner accuse his opponent of murder? No, a winner would be touting his accomplishments: the stimulus and ObamaCare. Every day. Reminding voters what he did for them. Every day.
With Bush gone and Obama in , things have gotten so much better since 2004 that it is beyond the realm of possibility all the states that GW Bush won can never be all won by Romney. Is that your take?
My prediction: all the states Bush won in '04 plus PA, MI, WI. That's about 320 ev's.
7-08| 9.11.12 @ 10:21AM
Much is being made of the democrats “Convention bounce” and the fabricated polling placing Obama as the insurmountable incumbent. The standard bearers have been reduced to the bullhorns of the MSM and are supported by the “kill a tree” branch of hardcopy remnants. The most stunning development on the journalism side is collusion from the DOJ and the subpoena inspired Gallop plaintiffs
Seeking credibility, the left has resurrected the “Fornicator in Chief “to Sainthood, his “record” sung in Sousa inspired renditions of glory days by twits whose decades of public service or higher education has gained nothing but further entitlement. Bring the Sabine women to the podium- but don’t wear the blue dress.
One of the most telling examples of this “engineering” running afoul of reality was the election coverage of 1994, Clinton’s midterm in his first term. The media corps pillared and chastised on air, during election coverage, Avery of Texas; the exchanges were testy as mouthpiece after mouthpiece predicted doom for the Republicans only to provoke outright laughter and mocking from Avery.
The result; fifty two (52) more congressional seats, eight (8) more Senators on the conservative side took their oaths. Had Clinton been up for election even RINO Dole or the buffoon McCain would have won handily. Whenever I hear pronouncements of doom all I remember is that Texan’s mocking laugh, and the right turn Bubba made to save his political life.
Oldefarte| 9.11.12 @ 10:22AM
In consideration of Quin's [always] intelligent analysis pre-election proves true in November, THIS COUNTRY WILL DIE WITHIN TWO YEARS FROM THIS ADMINISTRATION'S POLICIES! It's as simple as that! Anyone can analize this situation from various angles/positions, but if the dumbars voters/taxpayers/citizens of America allow this to happen as was the case on 11/4/08 once again on 11/6/12, they you, me and everyone one of us are toblame for this upcoming distruction of our nation. It's not up to R/R to do this, that or the other, but instead simply up to the supposedly intelligence of all of us not to allow the re-election of this group of domestic terrorists to continue. DO YOUR JOB!!!!!!!!!!
Purp| 9.11.12 @ 3:08PM
We survived Bush and Cheney, we'll be fine. Just practice " I pledge allegiance to President Obama" - just kidding.
Fargo44| 9.12.12 @ 12:32AM
The difference being of course that Bush and Cheney actually LOVED this country....
Kingofthenet| 9.11.12 @ 10:37AM
Mittens isn't going to win Florida with Ryan on the ticket, and without Florida it is OVER. The simple fact is President Obama has many routes to 270, Willard needs to run the table.
Drunken Sailor| 9.11.12 @ 10:51AM
You need to dig a little deeper in that RCP poll. Obama only has a 1.4 lead. Look at the polls averaged and you will see the ones with Obama farther ahead are all done with registered voters. The ones done with likely voters show a much, much tighter race. But you keep whistiling past that graveyard.
RCV| 9.11.12 @ 11:28AM
Not so. Rasmussen uses likely voters, not registered.
Drunken Sailor| 9.11.12 @ 12:08PM
True but if you follow the RCP to see what polls they averaged for their spread you will not see Rasmussen.
In Rasmussen poll Romney is up in Florida by 2.
Proves my point. Polls using likely, not registered voters show a much tighter race or even in Romney's favor in many cases.
RCV| 9.11.12 @ 12:18PM
But Rasmussen hasn't polled Florida in almost a month. That's why their poll isn't included in the Florida numbers - it's just too old. RCP includes Rasmussen in all states where their polls are among the most recent.
RCV| 9.11.12 @ 12:20PM
...and Rasmussen IS included in the national average. In fact, Rasmussen's latest is just about exactly where the RCP national average is.
Drunken Sailor| 9.11.12 @ 12:44PM
Never said it wasn't included in the National Average. King was talking about Florida and so was I. Want to talk National average, fine. Dial down in each one of those polls and again you find the ones were Obama is ahead significantlly polled registered voters. The polls using likely voters still shows the race very close.
Even if they all polled the same and still give Obama a 3 point lead that falls in the margin of error.
All this hype over insignificant numbers is crazy. The games have just begun. But keep a eye out for what happens after the job numbers revision is posted (my guess down again, just like all the other revisions).
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:21PM
All this is Mute.
It all depends on the Sampling.
Go to Drudge, and see the CNN Poll.
They asked 10% More Democrats in their Poll, and the White House threatened to SUE Gallup, of they didn't change their numbers.
Which they did.
Carter was Up.
Dukakis was Up.
And, none of these Pukes, got the 2010 Vote, right.
That's all you need to know.
Nick| 9.11.12 @ 7:35PM
He who lives by the polls, can die by the polls, RCV.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-G.....-No-Bounce
Hat-tip: Simon Templar (From above.)
Oldefarte| 9.11.12 @ 1:50PM
Yo KINGFISH ain't gonna win nothin except as HEAD OF THE KNIGHTS OF THE MYSTIC LODGEHALL, and yous be lying [just like yous do to Andy Brown and yos Saphire constantly] in saying thats. Even if hes gets Lightnin and the lawyer Calhoon on his side, yous dig?????
Houdini| 9.11.12 @ 10:54AM
These over sampled polls are so much bullsh*t. The only poll that counts is the one taken on November 6th. If people were up in arms about Obamacare in 2010, what makes anyone think that they have all of a sudden decided it is the greatest thing since sliced bread now? Gas prices through the roof are a good thing? 20% of the economy missing?Some of us need to get our heads out of our fourth point of contact and stop paying attention to those same people that predicted a close election in 2010. Our only chance to rid the country of this looming disaster is by electing Romney and gaining control of the Senate. It is time to get off our asses and vote, then drag everyone we know to the polls in November. (perp and his ilk can vote on November 8th)
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:24PM
Exactly.
Kingofthenet| 9.11.12 @ 11:10AM
This oversampled poll business is just a smokescreen by you Conservatives, the ONLY key thing is that the sample of likely voters is random. What's going on here is that along with asking them who they are going to vote for is what party they associate themselves with, I am sure the pollsters noticed the slew towards Democrat, but what could they do? Throw out the extra democrats and poll more Republicans? Than you don't have a 'random' sample, and you wind up with ALL polls going 50/50
Drunken Sailor| 9.11.12 @ 11:18AM
You are a idiot.
Oldefarte| 9.11.12 @ 1:56PM
You're finally TELLIN THE TRUFTS, KINGFISH! These polls are initiated and controlled by your radical-liberal buddies and their DEAD FISH-RAHM contemporaries that minipulate the numbers/statistics for same in favor of ya boy. When asked who they will vote for, poll respondants will indicate ya boy so as no to appear to be racist, discriminatory, disenfranchising, gentrifying etc; but when they get inside that voting station and are alone makring their personal ballot, guess who will get their vote? You got that right......and it ain't ya boy speaking Indonesian and a quoting from the Koran!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:28PM
Obama SUED Gallup, when their Poll Numbers showed him eating dick.
They, promptly, changed them.
Gallup had Carter Up, and they had Dukakis up.
That's all you gotta know about this Poll Bullshit.
Oldefarte| 9.11.12 @ 10:32PM
Was that "Dukakis up" when he was doning that Army helmet while sitting inside a military tank? Now if we could just sneak a picture of Barry sitting in bed next to Moochel, doning a turbin atop his head and dragging on a kingsize Pall Mall, we'd have this election in the bag, huh??????
Who Knows?| 9.11.12 @ 11:16AM
The latest poll that serious people have found to be useful is Intrade. It’s now been around long enough to have gained some credibility.
When people bet money on something, SUPPOSEDLY they are not faking it.
Since Romney became the GOP nominee, there’s no doubt the betting on him or Obama has been THE biggie.
When there’s a stink, look for s*it.
With the election pretty much a 50-50 tossup, why has Intrade been consistently around 60-40 for Obama, lately?
Just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you!
How many billions of dollars does George Soros have?
It would only take an “investment” of, what, a million or so by him on Obama at Intrade, to keep him LOOKING like the overwhelming favorite.
Intrade should set up a bet on this---is Soros rigging the Obama vote, or not?
Remember, perception is reality. And, Soros is all about reflexivity, in that he understands how to manipulate what people THINK is true---talk about buying votes!
Rigging ALL the polls to keep Republicans from voting because they THINK it’s a lost cause---voter FRAUD, writ in macro terms!
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:38PM
You, Sir, are a Genius.
Absolutely Correct, and don't forget that Axlerod SUED Gallup, when he didn't like their numbers, which they promptly CHANGED.
Ignore the Polls.
Believe your Eyes, when you see Boarded Up Stores at the Mall, and on every Town's Main Street.
Believe yor eyes when you see the Price of Gasoline, and the Price of EVERYTHING at the Supermarket.
Believe your eyes when you see all of the Foreclosed Signs on the Houses where your Neighbors used to live.
Occam's Razor.
Just VOTE.
Gary B| 9.11.12 @ 5:53PM
Believe your eyes when you see so-called teachers going on strike in Chicago, of all places. And they talk about Republican greed. I sure hope Romney's luck holds out because this teacher BS is a gift. The teacher's union is rubbing the nation's nose in it. And, what do we hear from the foreigner in the White House? Crickets... Perfect.
Who Knows?| 9.11.12 @ 11:32AM
“The buck stops here.”
This is the anti-slogan of Obama, in more ways than the commonly accepted one---to wit, not much responsibility taken by The One for all the troubles he’s caused.
However, there is an even more basic way to understand this saying---
What is a “buck”? One glorious US dollar.
And, what does THAT represent?
It DOES all come down to jobs, which is work, by humans, which creates---get ready for it---WEALTH.
I’ll repeat myself---truth never can be told often enough.
Reality is creating, or sustaining, or destroying. Physics recognizes this---the Universe tends toward entropy, or disorder. And humans must fight against this, by regularly working to create order, and sustain it, and even to USE it in creative destruction, a la Schumpeter.
However, “The buck stops here”, applies in over-the-cliff fashion, nowadays, when it comes to Obama and his destructive liberal gang.
They are all about STOPPING the buck!
Clarity beats obfuscation, every time, but it needs to be repeatedly spread around---the true WEALTH, is this truth!
Tommy Frisco| 9.11.12 @ 11:44AM
"Romney could win, like George W. Bush against Al Gore, even while Obama wins slightly more popular votes. (The civil unrest this could cause, by the way, is rather frightening to contemplate.)"
I'm weary of the subtle threats from the Dems and our "frightened" conservative voices. If 12% of the population wants to create civil unrest, I'm prepared to give them plenty of unrest. Go ahead, make my day!
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:45PM
He's not gonna win the popular vote.
There are HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of Private Sector Union Workers, shopping in the Savers Aisle, at their local Supermarket, while their Union Bosses dine on Braised Leg of Lamb, Iranian Caviar, and the Finest Wines, at the White House, because of his No Shovel Ready Jobs Stimulus, his Illegal Drilling Moratorium, and his CLOSING of Multiple Coal Mines, Refineries, and Coal Fired Power Plants.
Trust me.
This America Hating MFer is Going Down.
Gary B| 9.11.12 @ 5:55PM
And his racist, bitch of a wife with him...
jdondet| 9.11.12 @ 12:03PM
Mr. Hillyer:
‘Ain’t’ it funny during the spectacle of the Democratic convention, the view was that the Democrats had shot themselves in the foot. Too much abortion, too much anger, too much booing God and Israel, a president who had to run to a former president, he dislikes to save his campaign and in the end gave a lifeless acceptance speech. A position taken on these very pages but now all is lost, feckless Obama will defeat dismal Romney.
It could be Obama will win re-election but I always felt that would be because the GOP nominated a flawed candidate. It is hard to draw a distinction between yourself and the other guy, when you sing Bill Clinton’s praises.
Mr. Hillyer maybe is right, Romney might edge a victory like Bush in 2000 and 2004, with the election coming down to one state. The sad part of it is, it did not have to be that way.
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:50PM
Hillyer's an Establishment Republican Stooge, who needs to hire a better Makeup Man.
He praises the Pathological Lying, Serial Misogenystic, Rapist, Impeached President?
He's an Idiot, and he doesn't have a CLUE, as to what you and I are thinking about.
LOOK AT HIM!
He's a Shut In, at best.
And, a Moron, at worst.
RCV| 9.11.12 @ 12:24PM
A far more likely scenario is that Romney could edge out Obama in the national popular vote totals, but lose in the electoral college - a reverse Gore v. Bush. It's the electoral numbers which are the big hurdle for Romney's chances.
Grapeswrath| 9.15.12 @ 7:28PM
You obviously are mentally retarded and highly uneducated. That scenario can NEVER happen.
Obama automatically unlesss something changes, starts out with the most populous states such as CA, NY, MA, IL, and MI. Romney is not in any position to win any of those states. And even if he took one, Obama still would the popular vote. Idiot. You are far more mentally retarded than anything you idiot.
PolishKnight| 9.11.12 @ 12:51PM
The problem is a double standard where the Dems largely deny the right any platform other than the economy while they pander to racist special interests, "women" (more on this later), and the "rich". In the meantime, they leave open holes that you could drive a semi through including class warfare between the working/middle class and welfare recipients (note the hysteria about those ads!) and the worsening conditions of most women as their primary breadwinners (men) are either left behind or unmotivated to work themselves into an early grave as they did before.
Romney's flaw is he doesn't want to go after illegals for fear of offending his amoral small business base that wants cheap (literally illegal) labor and throws men to the dogs due to chivalry and taking them for granted. Many men I know simply don't show up to the polls half the time because they don't think the elite Republicans care about them and the special interest groups, such as anti-abortion groups, also are shortsighted. The best way to cut back on abortions are to produce two parent, stable households.
When, not if, the Republicans run out of economy voters they'll be forced to deal with this and this is when elections will get really interesting. Regarding possible riots in the event of an Obama loss, let's get it over with.
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 4:57PM
He doesn't need to go after Illegals.
He needs to Hammer the Economic Numbers.
Hammer his Constant B*tch Slapping of Israel, while giving our Muslim ENEMIES, a Lewinski, at every turn.
He needs to tout all of the Foreclosures, Bankruptcies, Bank Failures, Homes Under Water, Americans on Food Stamps, Americans living At, and Below the Poverty Line, Gas Prices, Food Prices, the Real Unemployment Numbers, and the $16 Trillion Debt.
Period.
This ain't Brain Surgery, people.
Cool Hand Luke| 9.11.12 @ 1:15PM
Demographics. The Republicans are speaking to a
large part of the population that has absolutely no
interest in its message. The immigration policies
of this country have taken its toll.
Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin are spot on when
they state "if the Republicans cannot win
in this environment then they need to hang it up."
It will be time to form a 3rd party to go forward
with a strong and vibrant conservative message.
Oldefarte| 9.11.12 @ 1:59PM
Speaking of Laura Ingraham, I'd strongly suggest you read [if you haven't already] THE OBAMA DIARIES!!!!!!!
mjs_pa| 9.11.12 @ 1:29PM
This election was about two things for the GOPe: securing obamacare and making people like karl rove rich. Both have been accomplished.
MRD| 9.11.12 @ 3:02PM
This election is playing out very much as was predicted by the anti-Romney folks during the primaries. Romney is a moderate, he does not excite the base. Picking Ryan as a VP did momentarily, but Ryan has been relatively muted lately as Romney insists on running a campaign focused not on ideology but on his resume. Obama is focused on ideology and the left wing of his party is jazzed. He is a dream come true. In politics passion matters. Romneys arguement on some level fails because this election is not about who is more competent. It is about what the country should be. We are at a crossroads. Obama is a very bright man, he is not incompetent and understands the political economy just as well as Romney. In fact better! It is simply that his goals are entirely different. He does not want to tweak this or that policy so that the GDP grows at 2.0% /year instead of 1.5% . Obama does not care if the unemployment rate is 8.1% or 15.5%. No Obama wants to remake the country in a fundamental way according to his leftist vision. He is playing an entirely different game then Romney. This is what makes this election so frightening. In this election with the stakes so high Republicans needed someone who could identify explictily what makes Obama so troubling, who did not mind the ridicule of the country club establishment set within the Republican party or the media. I am afraid Romney is not that guy. I pray that I am wrong.
TLP| 9.11.12 @ 5:08PM
You're wrong.
This Thing, in the White House has done So Much Damage to So Many People's Lives, that my Underwear could beat this POS.
REMEMBER- Carter was up, at this Stage, and so was Dukakis.
Have Faith in all of the American People who haven't Sold Their Souls for a Government Stipend.
I believe that Men still want to provide for their Families, and that they see that this guy is Hellbent on making that Impossible.
Men are Men.
At least those Men NOT on the Liberal Plantations in the Black Ghettos.
Sometimes I wonder if there are any MEN left, in the Black Community.
Cause I'm not seeing any.
JimH| 9.11.12 @ 3:12PM
At this point, I suspect most Americans agree that BO has made a mess of things, or at least has not noticeably improved the inherited mess. I think that most Americans believe that Romney would be the better choice for the country as a whole. What Romney needs to do to close the deal with the individual voter is to convince them that while improving the country he will not harm them in the process.
David| 9.11.12 @ 6:38PM
Sorry Quinn, I don't think it looks all that bleak for Romney. I don't think it looks good, but don't believe the polls.
Those of us who were "Anybody but Romney" and "Anybody but Paul" supporters in the primary season knew this was going to happen. Romney simply can't provide a stark contrast with Bam Bam.
Trying to convince people that Romneycare was different than Obamacare is trying to make a distinction without a difference. It is too complicated for people to understand. All the voters know is that Romney did at the state level what Bam Bam did at the federal level.
The anybody but Romney people knew that Romney could not connect with the average Joe, the blue collar workers, and conservative democrats.
The f_cking guy had been running for prez for seven and still couldn't get 40% of the vote.
What's more, the anti-Romney people sensed that even though he demolished/destroyed his conservative opposition with exaggerations and outright lies, he would not do the same to Bam Bam...............AND HE HASN'T!!!
Grapeswrath| 9.15.12 @ 7:33PM
You stupid bastard. He destroyed the other conservative oppoistion because they refused to give up when they were well behind in the delegate count. They deserved what they got. They should have honorably stepped down by February or March when it was all decided.
David| 9.11.12 @ 6:46PM
TLP, sure Carter was up and Reagan won in a landslide. But Reagan had an ideological message that resonated with Americans, and Romney does not.
Again, I don't agree things are as bleak as Quinn says, but it is a huge problem when 47% pay no taxes, when 50% receive some sort of government welfare, and when the vast majority of voters get their information from the leftist media.
One poster mentioned that Romney is playing a different "game" than Obama, who is campaigning on ideological grounds.
That is always the problem with repubs - they "think" it is all a "game" act as such, and the democrats "know" they are in a "war" and act like it.
Ned Ferguson| 9.11.12 @ 9:26PM
A good way to energize Tea Partiers is to refrain from attacking and alienating them, as he and the RNC has done. This Tea Partier is mad as hell.
Marco2| 9.12.12 @ 12:59AM
Hear, hear, to all those who tire of the commie crap spewed by these phoney baloney "conservatives" constantly dumping on the Romney campaign. In the disastrous event that they succeed in their mission, may these faux bootlickers be the first ones put up against the wall by their reelected hero.
MRD| 9.12.12 @ 11:35AM
Its not a matter of phony baloney conservatives.. etc etc.. The data is the data. The RCP average which over the last 3 election cycles came very close to the actual election tallies has Obama up by 3.2%. I think those of us alarmed by this, recognize that Obama is a disaster, and that based on traditional views of performance he should be down by 20% in the polls. It is not accurate to compare Carter/Reagan. At that time the country was not as polarized, as while Carter was awful, the problems had developed over time and Republican governance was not all that conservative ( Nixon wage and price controls! )
I think those critics of Romney are fully aware that Obama is a disaster, but you are kidding yourself if you think most people recognize this. The evidence is otherwise. After decades of left wing dominance of the media, the colleges and the entertainment industry there are a chunk of Americans who are as leftist as Obama, and another chunk who are politically clueless and easy marks for demagoguery. Obama is using this and Romney's fecklessness to win.
Mickle | 9.13.12 @ 12:07AM
My name is Kwan, I'm dumb as a stone. I love Mitt Romney and want to suck on his b....