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Loose Canons
Who’s Better Off?
Our nation’s enemies are grateful to the Obama administration.
In his debate with Jimmy Carter on October 28, 1980, Ronald Reagan looked at the television cameras and said, “Ask yourself, ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’” It’s always a good political question, but it’s too often not asked outside the context of our domestic issues.
The question is equally important if it’s focused outward: who among our enemies and allies are better off now than they were on the day President Obama was inaugurated? The answers are a cacophony of bad news, as bad as the answer to the current domestic version of the question.
Let’s go down the list. Since January 2009, how have Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, Afghanistan, Israel, and our European allies fared? Has Russia or China become less powerful or more aligned with America’s interests?
Iran has become far more powerful and much closer to achieving its nuclear weapons ambitions in the past three years and eight months. Its uranium enrichment facilities are running at full speed, at least one of its Russian-built nuclear power plants has come on line, and a significant portion of the facilities most important to weapons development have been moved far underground. The Iranians are approaching — and will quickly reach — the point at which these facilities are invulnerable to all but the most sophisticated cyberwar attacks and nuclear weapons.
Iran’s nuclear programs have been undeterred — and unaffected — by the several rounds of economic sanctions that we have tried to impose. Its missile force is vastly improved and expanded. And Obama willfully ignored our opportunity to help topple the Iranian kakistocracy in 2009. In sum, Iran is much better off today than it was in 2009.
Israel is worse off in direct proportion to Iran being better off. Actually, Israel is exponentially worse off: because of Obama’s break with Israel and his refusal to take any action that would have ended Iran’s nuclear pursuits (the Stuxnet computer worm notwithstanding, because its effect was brief and temporary). That the Israelis have been abandoned by their most important and powerful ally is clearly illustrated by two recent reports.
First, on August 30 Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke of the possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Dempsey said, “I don’t want to be complicit if they [the Israelis] choose to do it.” Using the word “complicit,” Dempsey labeled the possible military action illicit. His statement signaled to the Iranians that we would not assist Israel in any way and that we might refuse to come to Israel’s aid if the military action went bad. Contrast this with the 1973 Arab-Israeli War when U.S. Air Force aircraft were being armed and fueled to fly into the fight when the war appeared to be going badly for Israel.
Second, there had been several reports of a blowup between Israeli PM Netanyahu and U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro over the Obama administration’s failure to act on Iran. The Obama administration has insisted that there was no disagreement but last week the incident was confirmed by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.). According to a Washington Post report, “The exchange occurred at an Aug. 24 intelligence cooperation session in Israel and [according to Rogers] it was ‘very tense,’ with sharp, ‘elevated’ exchanges between Netanyahu and U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro… ‘It was very, very clear that the Israelis had lost their patience with the administration,’ Rogers said…”
Pakistan fares better since 2009. Its sponsorship of the Taliban and the terrorist Haqqani network (belatedly labeled “terrorist” last week by the Obama administration) is thriving. The Taliban, and the Islamist ideology that pervades both Pakistan and Afghanistan, have combined to pull off so many “green on blue” attacks in which Afghani forces have killed U.S. and coalition troops, that the training of the Afghan security forces has been suspended. In short, the Pakistanis and their surrogates are better off now than they were when Obama came into office.
The comparison of 2009 and 2012 reveals much the same results around the world. China continues its “slow rise,” becoming more powerful militarily even though its economy has slowed. China’s bellicosity has increased considerably in confrontations with the nations in its “near abroad.” The brief military confrontation between Chinese and Japanese forces over the Senkaku Islands off Japan — under which are rich oil and gas fields — passed without an American response. Nations in the “near abroad” from Taiwan to Vietnam to Malaysia face the same growing Chinese threats. China has pursued its strategy consistently and has been undeterred — and unrestrained — in the Obama term.
Russia is no longer the “riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” of Churchill’s day. Vladimir Putin has returned to the Russian presidency that he never really gave up. Since Obama’s presidency began, Putin has maneuvered Obama into a new arms control treaty that, for the first time, links our missile defense program with offensive nuclear forces. Obama’s plans to reduce our nuclear forces, his abandonment of Bush’s promised ground-based missile defense deployment to Poland, and Russia’s continuing partnership with Iran’s nuclear power program are all wins for Russia. Russia’s reflexive thwarting of U.S. actions seeking UN action on Iran and every other topic are all wins for Russia. Putin eagerly awaits Obama’s promised “flexibility” if Obama is re-elected.
Geopolitically, our European “allies” are faring no better than their economies. From the beginning, Obama has shunned Britain symbolically — by returning the Churchill bust that had graced the Oval Office — to his declaration of American neutrality in the revived dispute between the U.K. and Argentina over the Falkland Islands. France, as always, is genetically hopeless. Obama’s joining in France’s war for Libyan oil emboldened Sarkozy’s France, but France’s military effort there has exhausted its — and NATO’s — ability to act. NATO member forces will withdraw from Afghanistan before American forces. The security of the former Soviet Bloc nations, especially Poland, has been ignored or, as in the case of Poland, betrayed. American leadership has been absent for all of Obama’s years.
Our worst-faring enemy — Syria — is beset by a civil war from which Obama has remained aloof. Obama’s first defense secretary, Bob Gates, said we had no national security interest in Libya but Obama intervened nevertheless. Syria, in which we have a vital security interest in toppling a terrorist state, is now beyond our reach, supported directly and strongly by both Russia and Iran. The only other enemy that has fared badly under Obama is al Qaeda. SEAL Team 6’s raid that killed Osama bin Laden deprived the terrorist network of its symbolic leader. But, in truth, al Qaeda’s loss hasn’t reduced its abilities below the level achieved under George Bush. Al Qaeda affiliated groups — from al-Shabab in Somalia to al Qaeda in Iraq and more — pose the same kind of deadly local threats that existed in 2009. Other terrorist groups, from Hizballah in Lebanon to the rest of the terrorist networks listed by the State Department, are still thriving with one exception: the Mujahedin e-Khalq, an Iranian group imprisoned and abused by the Maliki government in Iraq. MEK is a thorn in the side of the Iranian regime, and shouldn’t be included in the terrorist list.
Egypt, which was a weak ally, is now in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood, an international radical group that is — as Andy McCarthy has written extensively — conducting a silent jihad against us at home.
In sum, who is better off now than they were four years ago? America’s enemies are, not our allies.
About the Author
Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush. He is the author of several bestselling books including Inside the Asylum and In the Words of Our Enemies. You can follow him on Twitter @jedbabbin.
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Jack in Wi| 9.10.12 @ 7:39AM
This is total nonsense. All of our security agencies including all our combined intelligence services and the Joint Chiefs of Staff have said Iran has no nuclear weapons program going on. The same is true with the Israeli intelligence services and military establishmnet. they are in open revolt against any war, Nutanyahu would start with Iran. General Dempsey is warning the political elites in both countries that such and an attack would be war craime. That is why he used that specific word complicit. The military and intelligence communites in this country have been in revolt against the Neocon agenda since at leat 2007 when they issued the NIE report of that year. they reconfirmed it in 2011. The miltitary has a duty to the Constitution and their military oaths to not do any war crimes. An unprovoked. Pre-emptive and preventive war on Iran would be a massive war crime.
Israeli nutcases have been predicting Iran would have nuclear weapons soo since at least 1992. What the hell would Iran do with the weapons any how? There only use is retalitory if they are attacked.
Jack in Wi| 9.10.12 @ 7:49AM
As for Russia China and North Korea. Who cares? They are sick to death of us sticking our noses in their business. Russia is a country with it's own intrests. It will not stand for an attack on Iran and it's allie Syria. China's only intrest in the Mid East is that the flow of oil keeps flowing. None of these countries are any threat to us if we stay home and mind our own business. The Neocons have never been right about anything. Romney is tanking the election by having these birds as his foreign policy advisors. Everytime he opens his mouth on foreign policy he loses votes. The world would be a far more peaceful place if the Russians took over part of Iran's air defenses and pointed about 10 nuclear weapons at Israel. It is a sad day when China and Russia are by far the most sane big powers.
TLP| 9.10.12 @ 10:25AM
That's right. All of the Muslim's Security Agencies, and all of The Muslim's Intelligence Agencis say that Iran isn't making any Nukes. They don't have a Nuclear Weapons Program going on, over there. Everybody Spind Cuntrifuges in Underground Facilities. That doesn't mean anything. People spin things, underground.
In fact, as I'm writing this?
My Laundry is on the Spin Cycle, down stairs, UNDERGROUND, in the Laundry Room, in the basement.
I realize that the UN Inspectors (of all people) have determined that Iran IS making Weapons Grade Uranium in their basements, in their Fortified Underground Laundry Rooms.
Maybe Jack's on to something?
As far as America's Enemies are concerened?
Who would you rather be? Israel, or Russia. Honduras or Pakistan? The Taliban, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, or a Member of The IDF?
We have no Friends that Trust Us, and No Enemy that Fears us. If anything, it's the other way around. And that is not any way to run an Airline, let alone, a Foreign Policy.
While The Muslim whispers sweet nothings into that Drunk - Medyedvedmellonhead's ears, he Bitch Slaps Honduras and Israel, for the Crime of Protecting their Constituional Forms of Government, and their People's lives.
The problem with Mr. Blabbin, is in his Assumption that The One We've Been Waiting For, shares America's beliefs as far as her Lists of Enemies and Friends goes.
Obviously, he does not.
In fact, he is "Obama 180" where those Lists are Concerned.
Quartermaster| 9.10.12 @ 5:26PM
We need to nuke TLP's laundry room to keep him from enriching and producing anymore weapons grade blue jeans.
CJW| 9.10.12 @ 5:54PM
Jack
Why do you deny that Iran has been at war with us since 1979? You sound like the appeasar Jimmy Carter. Iran seized our embassy and held our people hostage. Then Iran has supported Hamas and Hezbollah in their terrorrist attacks on us. And Iran supported the insurgents in Iraq that killed Americans. What does Iran have to do for you to see they are our enemy?
Yet you love Iran and hate Israel.
Purp| 9.10.12 @ 8:15AM
How anyone from the Bush Administration thinks they have anything to say about our position in the world is delusional.
After the Bushies ruined relationships around the world and emboldened our enemies as they exposed us as bogged down in Iraq and
Afghanistan, their analysis of any international position is useless.
I could drive a bus through the holes in this turkey's arguments, but his diatribe is just too laughable to bother.
CJW| 9.10.12 @ 6:00PM
ObamaboyPurpie
Obama has surrendered in Afghanistan by announcing a withdrawal date.
If he wants to withdraw then withdraw today. Obama is sacrificing the lives of Americans.
He has no intention to win as evidenced by the announced withdrawal date.
Only the Village Idiot Purpie belives it is sound military strategy to tell the enemy when you are leaving.
What do you think the enemy will do since they they know the withdrawa date, idiot?
You do know that Obama has greatly expanded the Afghan War?
ElGordo| 9.10.12 @ 8:21AM
The film 2016 is a very effective anti-Obama message that explains why Obama does not like the U.S.A.
.
It'll be played out commercially in the next 4 weeks .
.
For those who have not seen it, the film's producer should put it on YOUTUBE for the 2 or 3 weeks before the election to be viewed free.
.
Also , as AOL mailed free discs to get customers, Romney should have 2016 put on discs and mailed free to those voters in the swing states.
.
As Romney's TV ads attack Obama's failed economy, super pacs such as Rove's, should attack Obama's character, statements, associations, etc.; Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Acorn, Marxist Professors, Rezko, Frank Davis, "you didn't build that"', "electric prices will skyrocket", etc.
Purp| 9.10.12 @ 3:46PM
It's not working - didn't you get the message?
Romney is not trusted and there isn't enough lipstick to make that Corporate Pig look good.
Quartermaster| 9.10.12 @ 5:28PM
Anymore than there is enough lipstick to make the marxist pig Zer0 look good.
Joellen| 9.10.12 @ 8:28AM
And yet fools like Purp and Jack Wi still see "NOTHING" wrong. Keep this article and the next time some joker pushes Hillary as President - make them read this. She, like her master, Obama, are forces that wish to put America in her coffin. All their actions and non-actions reveal so. The non-belivers, or perhaps, proponets of their plan, like Purp & Jack, one day will rue their blind loyalty IF we do not elect Romney/Ryan and a full Republican Senate/Congress this November. WORK at this folks, like you've never worked before for the survival of America.
Jack in Wi| 9.10.12 @ 8:34AM
I hate Obama's foreign policy as well as Romney's. He has always been a bought stooge of the Zionist Lobby. The only good thing about Obama is that he hates Bibby Netanyahu. But he will still bend over everytime he sees him to kiss his rear end.
Purp| 9.10.12 @ 3:49PM
Interesting how you lump Jack and me together, when we clearly don't agree on foreign policy.
What will ruin this country is the Vulture Capitalist and Lyin' Ryan neither of which know a thing about running the country, let alone foreign policy.
Only one man knows how, has kept us safe and averted financial ruin - President Obama.
Anything else, you're on your own - remember, freedom, individualism, go "build it" yourself?
Quartermaster| 9.10.12 @ 5:32PM
You're right about the vulture capitalists. The only problem for you is Zer0 is one and the Dem party is utterly larded with them. Another name for them is Crony Capitalist. Corzine is an excellent example of such vultures.
nathan| 9.10.12 @ 10:04AM
There are two sides to this. BHO has expanded the drone strikes and more "bad" guys are being killed than ever before. We have more bases around the world today than existed under Bush. It is unclear that Iran's program, began under Shah (yes it goes back that far) is really that close to producing a weapon (even Israeli intelligence disputes what you read here) and in any case it's not clear that a weapon would pose a threat to THIS COUNTRY. If you read Ahmed Rashid's book Pakistan on the Brink (note that I DO quote sources, the rest of you should try it some time) the drone strikes involving hundred of civilian deaths in that country is causing considerable hatred against us there and is negatives probably out weight the positives in terms of us being a destablizing element. (Read the book folks.) Iraq and Afghanistan were lost causes BEFORE BHO took over.
If Egypt was a friend, who needs enemies. Muburak was kleptomaniac human rights violator that according to Ryan at the convention, MR would being siding with the rebels against. (Yes he would, read the speech.) There's no reason to stay in Europe. They have more money than we have, let them defend themselves and that includes Poland and the rest.
nathan| 9.10.12 @ 10:32AM
Notice what the writer says about Africa.
. But, in truth, al Qaeda's loss hasn't reduced its abilities below the level achieved under George Bush. Al Qaeda affiliated groups -- from al-Shabab in Somalia to al Qaeda in Iraq and more -- pose the same kind of deadly local threats that existed in 2009.
"Deadly local threats." Do we care about "Local" threats? Let the local people deal with those and we probably should stay out of them. Does anything in Africa where BHO has opened a number of bases directly affect us or threaten people in Ohio? Probably not. It affects us only if we allow it to do so. We can't nor should we play world's policeman/white man's burden here. BHO did not close any military bases he added substantially to the number. So many drone strikes are taking place in Somalia that it's becoming a problem for civilian air traffic control.
Again, there are two sides to the story being presented here. Do continue to be involved everywhere or do we walk away from conflicts that don't directly matter to us? And note again, even under BHO we spend about as much on defense as the rest of the world combined and even conservatives like Coburn are asking that DOD be audited.
Kwan| 9.10.12 @ 10:52AM
What do you expect? When you turn the country over to a "Community Organizer"-another term for a Communist Street Agitator-don't expect anything positive to be the result.
William R| 9.10.12 @ 11:07AM
Babbin represents everything President Eisenhower warned the American people about 51 years ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY
John786| 9.10.12 @ 11:37AM
Keep taking the neocon pills mr Babbins. A man fruitier than the average fruitcake.
Al Adab| 9.10.12 @ 12:01PM
Let us not single out the Moslem world as the only enemy of this country. Many others around the world oppose much of the American hegemon, whether out of self interest or simply jealousy matters little. The Left fails to understand that there actually are enemies. For some reasonn of their Faith they believe all differences are simply misunderstandings and matters of granting more respect. The only enemy The Left seems willing to admit is free market economics and Conservatives. The foreign policy The Left pursues is one of accomodation and appeasement. National interests can be mutually exclusive and need to be understood as such.
nathan| 9.10.12 @ 12:37PM
I will remind you sir again, that BHO has built more bases than his predecessor and has this country more actively involved in conflicts than his "sainted" predecessor. It's getting hard to find countries where we "DON'T have a presence. Drones are killing literally hundreds of people, sadly mostly civilians and the civilian death toll, many of them children is not winning us any friends. In fact it is turning people who previously supported us against us. If you think killing all those people is "appeasement" your definition is different than mine.
Pat Buchanan wrote in 1999 as it turned out correctly that if we continue to involve ourselves in places where we have little or no legitimate interest, sooner or later people will come at us assymetrically. Two years later he was tragically proved correct.
Are we under the current administration creating a similar situation? The key for any president is identifying where our real interests are. Being in Europe, an area that has more money than we do and can clearly defend itself, probably isn't it. One of many examples.
Al Adab| 9.10.12 @ 1:32PM
Sorry, Sir, but I don't read that I suggested anything about engaging in conflicts. You also confuse misguided nation building attempts with the initial military action. Conservatives opposed Bush nation building, while The Left opposed the Iraq "surge" which did yield results. Sadly the administration, after seeing the Iraq success, attempted the same in Afghanistan with poor results. The two theaters are not of similar nature. The prior low level of engagement if Afghanistan was better suited to the conditions. Neither need to have lasted this long on which we agree.
Why The Left feels the need to rush into Syria escapes me. National interest, not misguided "humanitarianism" should be the guide to foreign engagement. We are not apart on this but again, the Moslem nations of the world are not all our enemies and those which are are not the only ones who seek to do us harm either directly or vicariously.
Occam's Tool| 9.10.12 @ 12:41PM
Well, I see the isolationist idiots are out in force today. Jack, I was in Door County in early August. It's a craphole, as are you.
The Israelis will probably strike in October if they are going to strike befre the election. It will be very successful if it happens, and Jack and 786 will cry, and I will laugh.
Al Adab| 9.10.12 @ 1:33PM
Oh, But Dr. Occam, the Door county maple syrup is the best.
nathan| 9.10.12 @ 2:22PM
Keep dreaming sir. Successful? Define success. According to published reports going back way over a year most all those facilities are already deep underground and cannot be impacted with anything conventional. The response will be, straits closed, oil at 5/600 a barrel, gas maybe double what it is today, both this country and Europe in a depression that will take years to recover from. If we invade, which I'm sure you want to see happen, Iraq will look easy by comparison and can you spell "quagmire"? We will not be welcomed as liberators, lately we never are. Start building another wall and how many soldiers are you personally willing to see put it?
You neocon imperialists who bang the war drums and want to be everywhere, want to fight everyone see enemies everywhere, need a grip on reality. I got news for you. We haven't really won any wars in a long time and we won't win this one either.
John786| 9.10.12 @ 12:52PM
Iran is a third world country with minimal technologies. Whats stopping the Israeli's from bombing them. There is a non- zero chance that an attack on the Shia homeworld will lead to an end to the Zionist experiment. They are desperate for the US to lead the attack. An easier path, for all, would be to grant Iran its full rights under the IAEA. Being a Muslim of the Sunni variety I'm not a big fan of the ruling theocracy. However, from afar, it seems to me one of the few states in the ME that can evolve given some tender loving care. Mr occam are you 67 or bust: a gambling man I see.
Al Adab| 9.10.12 @ 1:39PM
John,
As you note, Iran was and can be again a great nation. It is indeed the regime (Shi'a as you note) which poses the threat and keeps its people tightly under control. It is not the government the Iranians would desire. A stable Iran would be a great force for good in the region. There is little the U S can or should do to bring that about and given the current (and potential) military capacity of Iran, the current regime is a danger.
CJW| 9.10.12 @ 6:05PM
Al Adab
I had a college professor who worked for the State Dept in Iran during the late 50's and 60's. He praised the work done by the Shah to modernize Iran, and to break the power of the mullahs, and was very positive about the future of Iran.
Of course, we had Jimmy the Boob Carter who did not support the Shah, and allowed the nutcase Khomeni to seize power.
Alan| 9.10.12 @ 5:15PM
Spare us the "poor third world country-minimal technologies" bullshit, please. They have a top 20 economy, space program and guess what a cruise missile program, not bad for "minimal technology" huh idiot?
http://freebeacon.com/report-j.....les-range/
Mike W| 9.10.12 @ 4:48PM
I never thought that anyone could convince me that we would be better off under Obama but this neocon hack has done so. If voting for Romney means 4 more years of wasting my money overseas then you can count me out.
I believe there are many independents with the same opinion. They don't want to see Dan Senor making our foreign policy. They don't want Bibi calling the shots.
Such a shame.
Belianis | 9.10.12 @ 7:25PM
Netanyahu is something that Obimbo will never be:
A REAL MAN OF COURAGE AND CONVICTION
The USA would be a better place with this proud brother of Joshua and Judas Maccabee in charge.
obadiah| 9.10.12 @ 9:06PM
It is very simple. Satanic obama marxist has ruined the USA in every way and wisdom needs only to assemble evidence to confirm the obvious. Iran, for example, is triumphing in every direction, along with its puppet, Syria. Not since Hitler has a leader been so popular as obama's friend Achie. It is true that the Palestinian-Israeli suicide pact needs tending but fresh Settlements are around the corner (just after the election) and that will get things rolling again.