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Special Report
An Intifada in Fatah’s Future
Except it will be directed by islamist Palestinians against what they perceive as the Palestinian Authority’s accommodationists.
(Page 2 of 2)
A Palestinian uprising directed at Fatah and the PA in the West Bank — rather than Israel — is a significant possibility in the near future. Since such a development could lead to the collapse of the Palestinian security forces, a “third intifada” poses a security risk to Israel, even if Israelis are not the primary targets of protestors’ grievances.
At the minimum, one could expect the fragmentation of Fatah and the PA, with the emergence of factions that are more overtly rejectionist and hostile to Israel.
Since, as Jonathan Spyer notes, the “Arab Spring” is effectively leading to the demise of Arab nationalist regimes, and Fatah represents an Arab nationalist outlook, the new factions could well take on a more pan-Islamist flavor, hoping to secure the support of the likes of Qatar, which has been undeniably pursuing a pro-Sunni Islamist agenda, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which has been cementing ties with Hamas in Gaza, with the result that restrictions on the border crossing at Rafah have been eased.
Indeed, according to one Hamas official, Gaza could soon become connected to Egypt’s electricity grid and natural gas pipeline. This illustrates an ever-growing divide between the West Bank and Gaza in contrast to the agreement on paper for a unity government between Hamas and Fatah. While Hamas has consolidated its power in Gaza, Fatah and the PA find themselves on increasingly shaky foundations. In short, the traditional Palestinian national movement looks set to become moribund.
About the Author
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University. His website is http://www.aymennjawad.org.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (13) | Leave a comment
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John786| 8.2.12 @ 7:12AM
With settlements continuing for at least 60+ years to fulfill zionist ( rapturer) aspirations for greater Israel. Every minutiae of palestinian life is controlled by the Zionist occupation. This environment maximises pain to Palestinian normality. Mr islamophobia points out that Palestinian economy is not doing well under these conditions. What next mr insightful (not): birds fly, fish swim. One thing I will agree with; Zionist expansion has killed all chances of a two state solution. It is time the Palestinians moved to campaign for full civil rights under a unitary state. The Palestinian will succeed it is only a question of when.
TLP| 8.2.12 @ 8:46AM
They won't succeed. Unless their plan is to be Exterminated, once and for all.
They've had 60+ Years, as you put it, and Billion$ upon Billion$ of Dollars, to make something for themselves. While the Israelis built Irrigation Systems, Greenhouses, Factories, and a Good Life for its people? The Creatures known as Palestinians, we're marching in the Streets, Throwing Rocks, Shooting their Guns up in the Air, and Firing Missiles at Civilian Targets, in Israel.
They were Blowing Up Buses, and Pizzarias, and Weddings and Funerals. Strapping Explosives to their own kids, in the hope that they would MURDER someone else' kids.
And, yet, The Left, all over the World, sings their Praises.
They also love Ghandi, who so famously proclaimed that: "There are many things for which I am willing to give my life for. But, there is NOTHING for which I am willing to KILL for."
You cannot praise both The Pacifist, and the one who would CUT OFF HIS HEAD, if he ever got the chance.
To be on The Left, has always been the sign of a Mental Disorder.
Think: Occupy Wall Street.
The Left has ALWAYS attracted those types.
That is the way with all CULTS.
kbs55| 8.3.12 @ 4:27PM
Israel should start demanding a return to the original Balfour Declaration (dated 2 November 1917) borders.
jaytrain| 8.2.12 @ 8:08AM
A good excuse to clear the so-called West Bank of all these thugs The Jordan River would make a natural border for a safe and secure Israel . Not Fair ? Six million germans were expelled from their home after WW2 ; 500,000 never got to safety , disease , hunger and outright murder were the causes . These Arabs have been on the losing side in 4 wars ( and that includesWW1 and WW2 ). Time to pay the price for bad behavior .
nathan| 8.2.12 @ 11:25AM
You, an American, really want to propose and support ethnic cleansing? Really? Honestly? Go back to the 1830's in this country and see how that worked with the Indians in Georgia. The Supreme Court in a ruling worse than ACA said Indians couldn't own land. Trail of Tears anyone?
We are talking about people who if they have not broken the law, and most of them haven't have something called "unalienable rights" granted by the Creator. As individuals unless you or the Israelis happen to be that "Creator" Jefferson talked about, those rights can't be taken from them. Now if you have video of you walking on water lately, kindly share it with the class. Otherwise, NO. NO to taking away rights of individuals who have broken no laws. No to depriving people of life, liberty, and property without due process (inherent in the unalienable rights doctrine). And I don't care what happened 60 years ago. Just because there was a wholesale violation of rights then doesn't justify doing it now. As Americans raised on the principles of the Founders we can neither support nor be party to such actions. NO. And BTW we hold the unalienable rights doctrine to be universal and global.
c. j. acworth| 8.2.12 @ 10:00AM
But culture has nothing to do with it, As We All Know.
Occam's Tool| 8.2.12 @ 12:05PM
Fatah and Hamas are both verminous, corrupt, scumbags. Hamas is simply more honest about being vermin; therefore, I want them replacing Fatah so that Palestinians will have the American support they deserve, i.e., none.
Occam's Tool| 8.2.12 @ 12:06PM
The Israelis have treated the Palestinians much, much better than they deserve. The Palestinians celebrate beheadings of 3 month old little girls. Nathan and John786 support this.
nathan| 8.2.12 @ 12:31PM
Really? Since when? Based on what?
If you have people breaking the law, call them criminals, call them terrorists, whatever, then arrest them and subject to due process, jail them. But for people who DO NOT BREAK ANY KNOWN LAW, who do not harm others, who do not violate the rights of others, I steadfastly support not taking away their unalienable rights. Why is that so difficult to understand? We as Americans do not believe in or support collective guilt. Were all Irish terrorists because of the IRA? Where all Israelis terrorists because of the actions of the Irgun and trust me a LOT of Israelis supported what those terrorists did. No, we treat individuals as individuals who have "unalienable rights" which as individuals can not be taken unless they personally directly harm someone else. Again, as Americans why is this so difficult to understand? Do schools in this country really suck this bad?
And Occam your outrage is selective. Were you equally outraged over Sabra and Chatila when hundreds (thousands who knows) women and children were massacred there while the IDF watched and pushed children back in? The Israelis elected Sharon who should have stopped the massacre prime minister after that. Tell us again how well they treat the Palestinians sir.
Read Tom Paine again and tell us all sir why he's wrong. (Quote from the Founders these days and you're a liberal go figure . . . .)
CforUS| 8.2.12 @ 4:59PM
You’ve taken a big bite of the propaganda apple and swallowed it whole.
Although a very small number of Israeli's have in no way acted like angel's, the majority of the "Palestinian" population ( this is based on FIRST HAND experience living in both Israel and West Jordan for a number of years) have no intention of ever living in peace with any Israeli, ever. They want the whole pie, the plate, and the oven too. This is demonstrated by the vast number of opportunities they have had to even make small step agreements and have welshed at the last minute time and time again. As long as the sympathetic western media and the vast majority of U.S. "educators" peddle the myth of the poor "Palestinians" just sitting peacefully under their olive trees, getting bombed and shot for no reason by the evil bloodthirsty Jews, we will never have a resolution. We are their enablers and they are their own worst enemy. We give them boxes of cash (another FIRST HAND observation) and their leadership has siphoned it off for their own use at the expense of their profoundly impoverished population. The U.S. and the Israeli’s don’t cause their poverty, they do that for themselves. Their own leadership keeps them that way to keep the cash flowing into their hidden bank accounts and foreign villa’s. Prosperous people don't usually receive millions in aid.
It’s impossible for someone like you to understand until you go there personally and see both sides of the story.
nathan| 8.3.12 @ 7:47AM
Sir:
Even if I concede your points who is the OCCUPYING AUTHORITY on the west bank? Who ULTMATELY calls the shots there? Not the PLO. The Israelis make the decisions in the end. Go read international law some time. As the occupying authority they are SOLELY responsible for the well being of those under their control. That means, health, education, safety, all that. If they don't like responsibility, they are free to withdraw any time they please. But as long as those are your soldiers at the checkpoints, you have the responsibility for what goes on in the areas YOU control. And they know that. Israel has lost court cases on Palestinian land issues and in the spirit of Andrew Jackson told the courts, you made the decision now enforce it. Not very "democratic" of them would you say? They've been sanctioned by their courts for torturing people. Again, not very "democratic"?
Remember, some of the early Palestinian terrorists weren't muslim, they were christian who had their land/rights taken away from them without just cause. Reduce people to a state of despotism (sorry I like quoting TJ) and people WILL react and again for the record I do not and will not ever support terrorism in any form and that includes what the Irgun did 60 years ago.
Occam's Tool| 8.5.12 @ 10:08PM
Nathan: yes, you do support the beheading of Israeli infants. You have to twist and twist, my dear man.
The Israeli Court system prosecuted Sharon after the massacres carried out by their fellow Arabs. The Palestinians sing and dance and give candy to their children when Israeli babies have their heads chopped off.
Slaves in the South did not generally behave this way. Blacks in WWII fought for their country.m Jews fighting in the Warsaw ghetto did not fight this way against Nazis. The Continental Army did not fight this way against the Brits.
The Palestinians are animals in how they behave, and thus they lose. You support this by your actions, and you cannot deny it, no matter how you try, Nathan.
Oh, and by the way, Gore Vidal, whose opinions you support regarding Israel and in other areas, was also a fund raiser for NAAMBLA.
kbs55| 8.3.12 @ 4:24PM
Arab Democracy will never be viable, because there is nothing left but despair over an irredeemable barbarism.
The truth of the past cannot be allowed to disrupt the belief that Islam is the only religion (Islam is relativism.). They have destroyed the monuments of the past out of fear.