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At Large
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. is positioned to un-block it, much as our president would rather focus on something else.
The Iranian political and military high command may have convinced itself that closing down the Strait of Hormuz — or even the threat to do so — will keep the United States and its allies from increasing pressure on them to cease nuclear weapon development. Recent deployments in the region indicate otherwise. It is apparent that the Obama Administration finally has come to the realization that the Iranian threats are real. In consequence there has been a quiet, if major, escalation of American military presence within striking distance of the Persian Gulf.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz would be an international act of aggression and threats to do so carry dangers in themselves. Iran’s leaders may have an inflated perception of their country’s importance, but they are not stupid enough to think the blocking of the strait would not result in a combined U.S and allied counter-strike. One of the more radical scenarios of non-nuclear responses could be quite devastating to Iran.
Mines that the Iranians have already announced they would plan to use in their blockade would be swept by the eight mine sweepers already in place along with dozens of underwater drones capable of locating and destroying, if necessary, submerged Iranian explosive devices. This would be the first phase of counteraction, but mines distributed in the strait would not be the sole target in this particular scenario.
The ports from which the small mine distribution boats set forth will be blasted by air and sea; in the most radical forecast the entire eastern portion of the Persian Gulf would be soon on fire. The next step of a full scale counteroffensive against the Iranian blockade would be the total destruction of the ships of the Iranian Navy easily located steaming out of Bandar Abbas, Bandar Beheshti, and the other naval home ports modernized since the “tanker war” of the 1980s.
Now comes the really advanced weaponry: As the Russian and Chinese propaganda machines get into full screech, conventional EMP strikes would be launched against Iranian targets of highest value. This action of course will include the disruption/destruction of all known nuclear development facilities. Naturally these advanced technological strikes will be coordinated with cyber-attacks on a massive scale invading and destroying Iran’s entire communication system.
Cruise missiles will negate the utility of Iranian airfields and air defense assets while American and allied land and carrier-based aircraft destroy that portion of the Persian air force still able to get airborne. U.S. missile strikes from the one nuclear-powered submarine already in-theater would hit selected operational centers along with other key facilities.
In the interim until the American and allied forces gain full control of the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Gulf, the petroleum shipments that normally pass through this area would be reduced severely. Nonetheless it would be a relatively short-term blockage for, among other reasons, Iran cannot exist economically without a relatively swift return of its oil export capability. Theoretically at this point no allied ground forces — other than specific target-designated special operations units — will have placed boots on the ground of Iran.
The flaw in this aggressive scenario is that it depends not only on the results of the forthcoming presidential election in the U.S. but on the timing of the initial Iranian maneuver — to say nothing of the independent actions of the Israelis. All the American force buildup is already in or on the way to the area because the White House definitely wants to avoid any serious conflict before the elections. As Chet Nagle, the author and former Defense Department official who was an advisor to the Sultan of Oman, has put it, “Obama is desirous only of waving the stick, not using it. If the Iranians move to block the waterway prior to November, Obama will limit the American military response to counter mining operations.”
Initially all effort by the U.S. would be placed on “proportionate” response. Unfortunately, by definition this limited counteraction presents Tehran with the tactical advantage. The current major buildup aimed at scaring the Iranians into inaction only works if the Persians actually view it as having serious potential. So far the 3-4 aircraft carrier battle groups in or steaming toward the Gulf have not brought a serious Persian response — even diplomatically. Neither has the radar ring being built around Iran, including the X-band radar at Al-Udeid in Qatar. Tehran knows about the long-range air assets readied on Diego Garcia and the squadron of F-22s already assuming their in-theater combat responsibility.
In spite of all this and more, the Iranian political and military command has not judged the Obama Administration as seriously dangerous. It is an old military tactic to mass troops and have them bang on their shields in hopes of placing fear in the hearts of the enemy. The Persians are well acquainted with this tactic. The Israelis who will strike without warning present a more likely threat.
While President Obama doesn’t wish to discuss any of this with the American electorate, the reality is that the United States, already beset with economic woes unsolved during his presidency, is on the brink of another major conflict. U.S. military might is up to the task, but it’s obvious that Washington’s officialdom remains willfully oblivious. No wonder Moscow and Beijing find no advantage in responding positively to American logic. Too much shield banging just makes a lot of noise!
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (30) | Leave a comment
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Intelligent Design| 7.27.12 @ 7:16AM
If I were an Iranian, I'd correctly sense that Ovomit lacks the desire and the will to fight. And if the American voters reelect him, Islam is the winner, Israel and freedom are the losers.
Brookschwarzenegro | 7.27.12 @ 10:04AM
"the United States, already beset with economic woes unsolved during his presidency"
Of course; it took eight years to get into the woes, it'll take until mid-decade to get out of them.
Al Adab| 7.27.12 @ 11:14AM
Right in part Brooksie, It will take years to unwind this mess that the last ten years or so built. One thing though is certain. Unless we begin that process, there will be no future for liberty and self-government anywhere let alone in The united States.
JayDick| 7.27.12 @ 11:52AM
It may take years to clean up the mess, but the economy could be straightened out in a year or less if the following actions were taken quickly:
1. Repeal Obamacare.
2. Repeal Dodd-Frank.
3. Repeal Sarbanes-Oxley.
4. Drill here, drill now, for both oil and gas.
5. Stop all funding of foolish endeavors like renewable energy.
6. Stop/reverse regulations on carbon emissions.
7. Leave taxes and entitlements alone temporarily, but start work on major reforms now. Take the time needed to get it right. Include medical insurance in the reforms.
Al Adab| 7.27.12 @ 12:02PM
Jay:
As your list points out, it took decades of misguided legislation and government by regulatory fiat to cause this mess. What will work:
1. Reduce spending
2. Let wages set their own level
3. Cut taxes
4. Encourage business expansion
Every time those action have been taken in our national economic life, we prospered. When did any begin to believe the opposite could produce similar results?
Brookschwarzenegro | 7.29.12 @ 6:01PM
Hot off the press:
"Cheney: Picking Palin for VP was 'a mistake' "
Brookschwarzenegro | 7.29.12 @ 6:48PM
he was harsh in his assessment of McCain's decision to pick Palin.
"That one," Cheney said, "I don't think was well handled."
"The test to get on that small list has to be, 'Is this person capable of being president of the United States?'"
Cheney believes Sarah Palin failed that test.
"I like Governor Palin. I've met her. I know her. She - attractive candidate. But based on her background, she'd only been governor for, what, two years. I don't think she passed that test…of being ready to take over. And I think that was a mistake."
Alej| 7.30.12 @ 4:28PM
Insightful comment on topic.
Louis Jenkins| 7.27.12 @ 8:39AM
The Iranians are hoping that Obama will get re-elected this fall. If so we can bet that Israel will step up to the plate. Four carrier groups is a lot of military hardware, however, having the fortitute to use it is another deciding factor. Obama doesn't have that kind of backbone.
Maxwell| 7.27.12 @ 8:50AM
I still picture Barry on his little girls bike with his brain bucket and hanging drapes in the White House. What a man, not!
Pecos Pete| 7.27.12 @ 9:27AM
Mr. Wittman: Good information. Thank you.
Mistral| 7.27.12 @ 9:31AM
Yet another example of how the USA with its paradoxical ally Saudi Arabia are doing all they can to undermine the Shiite Middle East, destabilise the entire region; processually aiding and abetting Israeli foreign policy and controling oil in the process. Good practice for the military-industrial complex but very costly to the American taxpayer. Indeed, and very risky for world stability but the USA does not give a damn about that!
Iran is entitled to have nuclear power just like the USA, Russia, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India etc., etc. It is the USA who represents the worst risk to world peace at present alongside its customary stooge ally UK. Let us get straight to the very heart of the hypocrisy - it's there in Washington DC & London.
KennesawJack| 7.27.12 @ 10:25AM
Nice try, pal, but your anti-Semitic argument doesn't wash. None of the nations you mentioned that possess nuclear power has threatened to wipe another country off the map just as soon as they get the bomb. That alone disqualifies them as a nuclear power. As for the U. S. and Saudi Arabia destablizling the ME it should occur to an objective observer that the Sunnis are in the vanguard of that effort, not the U. S. Interesting, though, that you give a Russia and China a pass, and nary a word about those poor misunderstood souls in North Korea.
Occam's Tool| 7.27.12 @ 3:47PM
Mistral: my daughter will not be wearing a burqa. She is 9. Stay away from her, punk.
Mistral| 7.28.12 @ 1:46PM
The USA has aided Saudi Wahhabism so much (look at most of the mosques in west now - Saudi funded) your daughter may be wearing a burqah sooner than you think!
It is not by destabilising Egypt, Syria, Iran, Libya etc and overstretching the US budget on Israel's behalf that you will be safe. be intelligent please.
I am certainly not anti-semitic, having helped to educate many Arabs and having jewish friends myself. It always amiuses me how thoughtless some reactional comments here are.
Finally, most of the places in the middle east being destabilised are ripe for a take-over by the extreme mohamatan right - in Egypt Muslim brotherhood. Not a very good omen for the west at all. Indeed, be intelligent and think properly about it. Overcome your American imperialist psychology and reason it out.
aware| 7.29.12 @ 11:34AM
Get a clue, Occam. Islam isn't what is appointed by the Powers that rule this world to "control" your daughter, that is for the east.
No, here it is "rationalism", "higher criticism", "modernism", "atheism", and "enlightenment".
One destroys faith in the Truth by threatening the body, the other by threatening the mind. Both aim at the same end. Each uniquely suited to be effective with the target it is directed at.
"Nuking" Iran still leaves the enemy untouched here.
rocky01| 7.27.12 @ 10:58AM
Striking a match here may be ultimate mea culpa aka October surprise
Al Adab| 7.27.12 @ 11:19AM
The U S can and will act to keep the straits open. Too much of the worlds' commerce flows through there to ignore such a threat. That this president would prefer not to so act is also a fact. Nonetheless, the Iranian threat, including both its nuclear program and this potential action, has been ignored for many years now by our government. Earlier action could have prevented the ever increasing threat we now face. Just as action in the 90's could have stopped N. Korea so early action in Iran could have prevented this soon to be crisis.
Drunken Sailor| 7.27.12 @ 12:27PM
Al,
I have been through the straits. The mouth as it enters the persian gulf is pretty narrow (21 nautical miles). Our Navy would be shooting sitting ducks if Obama had the backbone to let them.
Frank Natoli| 7.27.12 @ 3:06PM
http://articles.janes.com/arti.....-Iran.html
George: don't forget the diesel electric subs, which are extremely quiet, no steam. No modern warship in any navy is capable of shrugging off a naval torpedo hit. If our attack boats have any limitations on their rules of engagement, our carriers will be extremely vulnerable.
MK48| 7.29.12 @ 10:28AM
Frank my friend the diesel-electric kilo-class Russian subs are 90's tec. and the steam you talk about is quiter than an arrow in flight.
The US has the quietest subs in the world even the Russians take a back seat to our silent Navy.
A proud quilified submariner...........
Occam's Tool| 7.27.12 @ 3:47PM
Dropping a 1 megatonner on Teheran would disrupt Iranian Command and Control, and would be very well deserved. Sometime before August 18th would be ideal timing.
Sean| 7.27.12 @ 4:51PM
Iran has not threatened to close the Straits unless they are attacked. Simple way to keep them open without spending blood and money is to leave Iran alone. Let them develop nuclear power as they are entitled under the NNT. The USA's greatest enemy right now is not China, Syria, Iran or Russia. It is our own government who has trampled on our Constitution and flooded our country with people of non Western civilizations
Cobalt| 7.27.12 @ 5:15PM
As a last resort, if necessary to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons, Israel will turn some of the Persian sand into glass.
No public opinion polls, no press conferences, no running it by Congress, no getting approval from the United Nations, etc. will be required, before it will be wheels up time in Israel.
Mike W| 7.27.12 @ 10:19PM
If the Israelis chose to attack Iran they truly deserve to have their streets flowing with buckets of blood. Of course, if they do it before the election, Obama wins.
On the other hand , I work in the energy business and an attack on Iran would be good for us oil and gas types.
John786| 7.28.12 @ 5:35AM
Another Needless war with Iran. A nation that has never threatened anyone. Diplomacy through war will bring untolled misery to all. The solution is to respect iran's sovereign rights under the NPT. The existential threat faced by Israel is its ongoing treatment of the Palestinians. It was announced again this week that settler numbers in the future Palestinian state are increasing exponentially. Facts on the ground. As Israel destroys the two state solution it must face upto a single state with the Palestinians. Zionist ideology eating itself. schadenfreude a beautiful word that I rarely use.
aware| 7.29.12 @ 11:39AM
Breaking eggs for the New World Order.
CaneCutter| 7.28.12 @ 12:43PM
At this time, all we are going to do is to "bang our shields" and grunt wildly. The Ayatollahs and Mulluhs know this. They also know that their best way of getting what they want, is four more years of a weak, inexperienced, detached and aloof Kenyan such as Obama. They fear a tough, determined and dedicated American leader, that Mitt Romney has proven himself to be. No fear of any action until after the election. The Persians want Obama in the Oval Office.
Mistral| 7.28.12 @ 1:49PM
The US media has amplified Iran so much it no longer makes any sense at all. Most of the reactiojns to Iran are total nonsense.
Abu Nudnik| 8.9.12 @ 11:21PM
Should've kept the men on the eastern and western flanks. I guess W wasn't a moron.