There is a tendency to view North Korea as potentially only one
step away from aggression in the region. The South Koreans appear
to be on a perpetual alert. Japan goes on a national defense status
every time Pyongyang prepares to launch any form of ballistic
missile. The Chinese and Russians scramble their air defense assets
and the U.S. Pacific fleet steams toward the Korean peninsula at
flank speed to be in combat position as anti-missile batteries from
Alaska to Hawaii tilt skyward. And this is just the attention
sought by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
As North Korea moves into its third generation of leadership by
the Kim family, there has been a determined effort to give the
impression that the transition has been seamless. After a bizarre
orchestration of public mourning that included massive weeping
crowds of citizens, civilian and military, the 28 - 29 year old Kim
Jong-un has been carefully introduced into public life. A façade of
government leadership is maintained by a triumvirate of elder
statesmen acting as de facto head of state, premier, and
defense chairman. Real power resides in and through the new Supreme
Leader and what is effectively a small body of advisors and
decision-makers not dissimilar to the standing committee of the
politburo existing in China.
Jong-un has not been involved in any of the fallout that
accompanied the failed launch of the North Korean satellite in
April. The multi-stage rocket effort was especially provocative as
it came shortly after the Americans in February tried to use the
recommencement of food shipments as an indication of good will
toward the new young leader. The intent of the “old guard” in
Pyongyang was to show a continuation of their ICBM development
program under the guise of a satellite launch. It was obvious the
Obama Administration’s hope for a reduction in tensions was due for
failure. If the satellite launch had been successful, the new
leader would have been credited. The missile failed and as a result
Kim Jong-un simply became uninvolved.
Instead a campaign was begun by June to show “The Great
Successor,” as Kim Jong-un is now called, was well occupied
enjoying his summer by attending formal remembrances of his father
and grandfather along with assorted happy social events. The most
distinguished of the latter was a recent presentation that included
Walt Disney characters to an obviously delighted TV audience that
included a beaming Jong-un and an attractive woman who was
variously described by the foreign press as possibly his sister or
a long lost flame of ten years previously. The betting favored the
latter lady who had gone on to become the lead singer in a North
Korean rock band. A hand-picked audience of 20-30 year olds with a
sprinkle of uniforms among them clapped their approval of the show
along with their new leader. The signal was clear: for the most
part “The Great Successor” was to be kept out of the complicated
business of government until the stalwarts of the politburo wanted
otherwise.
Who is running things in Pyongyang? The answer is that it is the
same group that took over as caretakers in the post-stroke days of
Kim Jong-il. On the top of that list is the latter’s brother-in-law
Jang Song-taek and his wife, Jong-il’s sister, Kim Kyung-hui. They
acted as regents for Kim Jung-un before the Dear Leader’s death,
and have now an even more firm hold on the Kim family dynasty. Aunt
Kim Kyung-hui has been actively involved in Kim-family interests
for several decades and is a considerable power-player in her own
right. Her husband has long had an influential political and
strategic role. He works very closely with the newly promoted Vice
Marshall Choe Ryong-hae, who keeps a sharp eye on internal labor
issues and how they affect national stability.
There are two men who dominate internal security — one for the
civilian side and the other with particular attention to the
military. They are respectively, U Tong-chuk and Kim Won-hong.
These two exercise command over the top echelon of the entire
internal security apparat and are among the most powerful of the
governing oligarchy. The physical security of the entire leadership
group is under the watchful eye of Yun Jong-rin, who from time to
time knocks heads with the two previously mentioned security
chiefs.
Perhaps the intellectually most influential within the inner
circle is Kang Sak-ju. He was Kim Jong-il’s principal foreign
affairs advisor and the lead negotiator in international issues.
Kang works closely with Ry Yong-ho, who is considered key in
national security and military strategic matters as head of the
DPRK military General Staff.
There are several other members of the top leadership group who
now guide everything done in the name of the new leader, Kim
Jong-un, but these mentioned represent what for the moment is the
first tier. If any changes are noticed, the increased influence of
“The Great Successor” and his aunt and uncle will be under way. In
the meantime the new leader has been kept busy by matters not
overly taxing to his youthful and relatively hedonistic interests.
There are signs, however, that Kim Jong-un may be feeling his way
toward greater personal authority.
Kim Jong-un’s record during his Swiss schooling indicated a
consistent lack of scholarly interests. He arrived a spoiled child
and his European experience appeared to change him little. There
has occurred a recent circumstance in which the new boy on the
block — perhaps at the urging of his protective advisors, his aunt
and uncle — has exerted unexpected authority. Chinese Vice Foreign
Minister for Foreign Affairs, Fu Ying, was sent specifically to
Pyongyang in April to seek to persuade the new leader of the
inappropriateness of launching the satellite. Minister Fu
reportedly was surprised at the way his recommendation was
personally dismissed by Kim Jong-un.
In Beijing the rumor spread quickly in the Foreign Office that
Kim Jong-un actually might have a mind of his own — though most
agreed that was still speculation. As this circumstance had never
been indicated before, the diplomatic community has been left in a
bit of confusion and wary about the future. The question now exists
whether the Disney-loving Kim Jong-un, simply a tool of his
counselors, is preferable to the one that enjoyed dismissing the
Chinese vice foreign minister. Or is there no separation between
the two Kim Jong-un? Only time will dictate which personality
dominates. Unfortunately, none of his keepers is talking.
