-
Behind the Iraq Protests
April 18, 2013 | 20 comments
-
Turkey, Iraq, and Oil
April 5, 2013 | 0 comments
-
Sunni Reachout to the Shia Crescent
March 7, 2013 | 7 comments
-
Anti-Islamism in an Islamic Civil War
January 24, 2013 | 9 comments
-
Iraq: Playing the Sectarian Crisis Card
January 2, 2013 | 3 comments
At Large
Understanding the Situation in Syria
Minority numbers aren’t adding up for Bashar Assad’s defenses.
(Page 2 of 2)
A rebel leader in Aleppo, quoted by Anthony Loyd on June 19, 2012, has confirmed that many Sunnis in the province joined the pro-government shabiha militias and identified two clans, the Bari and Baqqarah, as supporters of the regime in Aleppo. With more than one million members, the Baqqara is also a major tribe in Deir ez Zor.
Even the notion of the Syrian uprising as a poor Sunni man revolt does not do full justice to this reality. According to Phil Sands, as late as January of this year, a senior tribal figure in the impoverished Deir ez Zor estimated that the Sunni tribesmen in the province were still almost evenly split between supporters and opponents of the regime.
It’s this hidden minority of Sunni supporters that was keeping the regime on its feet until now. Losing this support to the sectarian polarization would set the regime on fast track to oblivion.
Meanwhile, according to the latest reports from Deir ez Zor, the alliance between the Sunni tribes in the province and the regime finally unraveled at last. But, once it happened, large chunks of the province and the city of Deir ez Zor quickly fell under opposition control. This is not the first time that the opposition has taken over center of the city of Deir ez Zor. But this was the first time a government-assault to recapture the city was repelled, leaving the streets of Deir ez Zor strewn with destroyed tanks and other military equipment.
At stake have been most of Syria’s oil and control over the border with Iraq which is known to be used to smuggle weapons and foreign fighters into the country. In fact, Deir ez Zor has well-armed and battle-hardened tribal allies on the Iraqi side of the border. Bashar Assad had been having it bad enough in Homs. But “Benghazi” turned out to be an even tougher nut, with the Free Syrian Army claiming to control 70% of Deir ez-Zor.
Deir ez-Zor - June 28, 2012
Now, as fighting reaches Damascus itself, with the Defense Minister reportedly killed in a suicide bombing, things look ever more bleak for the regime. The end appears to be at hand, with chaos set to rule the day. Where is this supposed Syrian army of more than 600,000 now?
About the Author
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University. His website is http://www.aymennjawad.org.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (12) | Leave a comment
More Articles by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
More Articles by Oskar Svadkovsky
More Articles From At Large
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/07/19/understanding-the-situation-in
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
H/T to National Review Online
ADVERTISEMENT
John786| 7.19.12 @ 9:36AM
The idiom 'Can't see the wood for the trees ' best describes me javads discourse. Previously he described how it was minorities bolstering Assad but now apparently they don't exist. It now transpires that its sunnis bolstering Assad: is that turkeys voting for Christmas. Mr Javad endless hair slitting like a fox chasing its tale had left him confused. surely even this right wing neocon website must tire of his half baked ideas. Does he actually get payed for this. I can fabricate more plausible discourse pleasing to the evil neocons/rapturers at half the price. The people who support assad have no religion or conscience: Alawites et al are not responsible for the murderous assads.
Brookschwarzenegro | 7.19.12 @ 3:47PM
You guys are disappointed Libya wasn't turned into another Ashcanistan so you could blame it on Obama.
TLP| 7.19.12 @ 9:39AM
How's this?
One Cruise Missile through the Bedroom Window of the latest, in an unbroken string of Syrian Monsters, dating back to the Days of Alexander.
We get rid of this Bag a Sh*t, and send a Messege to the rest of the Goat licking Ccksckrs, that we can put them in the ground, any time we like, and they won't even see it coming.
I like that plan.
I like it a lot.
ncatty| 7.19.12 @ 9:49AM
As long as Assad has the Army, he stays in power. An analysis of its current status would be informative.
Paul Kotik| 7.19.12 @ 10:34AM
Well, that's it, isn't it?
If the Syrian military machine is as formidable as Western observers have routinely described it, then Assad has hardly begun to employ its power against the rebels. Is this because its capabilities have decayed, or because his strategic ( and in particular geopolitical) calculations have restrained his use of military force?
I'd be particularly interested in a reconciliation of the apparent disparity between the Israel Defence Forces' posture on the northern front, which by all accounts treats the Syrian military as a very significant threat, and the Syrian military's seeming ineffectiveness in suppressing a grass-roots domestic uprising. Where are the massive armored, mechanized formations? The thousands of artillery tubes? The hundreds of top-line combat aircraft?
Arrayed against the perceived threat of an Israeli attack? Deployed in offensive configuration against Israel?
Non-existent? Non-functional?
Will Assad turn out to have been a micro-Saddam, who didn't even have weapons of minor destruction?
Harry the Horrible| 7.19.12 @ 9:56AM
I'd rather have Assad an the Ba'ath Party in charge of Syria rather than losing another country to the Islamic Brotherhood and the Al Qaeda backed rebels opposing him. Fascism is several steps up from Islamism.
Better yet, I'd prefer both sides to manage mutual annihilation.
Bob K| 7.19.12 @ 11:59AM
A view of today's bombing in Damascus, along with a history, from a columnist in Asia Times here:
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NG20Ak02.html
Was the CIA involved? Al Qaeda? How about Hillary? The Neo-Cons? Particularly see the last 4 paragraphs of the article.
Who Knows?| 7.19.12 @ 12:29PM
Mark Steyn must be heard.
Demographics, my friends, demographics.
What is Syria, anyway? A bordered piece of land populated by humans, most of whom are Moslems.
Be realistic. The Middle East, sans Israel, is doomed to Islamic rule.
Thus, only growing pains, at best, and hell, for the rest of the world, at worst, can be the only spectrum of outcomes during the lifetimes of all people living today---including just born babes.
Tough titty, indeed.
Dimitry_Aleksandrovich| 7.19.12 @ 1:42PM
The last Christian safehaven in the Muslim world is about to be wiped out and the blame falls firmly on the shoulders of the US government and their Western European whores working in concert with power hungry Turks and bloodthirsty Saudia and Qatari Wahhabists. May God protect Syria's Christians and let no one forget when Iraqi Christians were forced out of their ancient homeland that it was the Alawite Assad who took them in. As I said before the U.S. is doing the devil's work. Orthodoxy forever! May God grant victory to Orthodox Christians over all our enemies!
JmsA| 7.22.12 @ 3:54PM
Never mind you'd be losing your warm-water naval base at Tartus if Assad goes. Syria isn't run by Christians, let alone Orthodox Christians. It is run by Alawites, who follow a branch of Shia Islam. They're the proxy for Iran in the region; and the only counter and moderating factor against them, Israel. What's going does not amount to anything more than the ever increasing conflict between Shia and Sunni Islam. No matter what, the Christians will move on as they have elsewhere in the middle east. It's just a matter of time.
Dimitry_Aleksandrovich| 7.25.12 @ 2:36AM
Shia Alawites are not in any way threatening Syrian Christians. U.S. backed, Saudi funded Sunni Salafist's (Wahhabists) are. That little faggot on CNN Anderson Cooper is now Al Qaeda's PR guy in Syria. I know the U.S. government is involved in this and I am outraged and saddened. Syrian Christians are being driven from their homes and murdered and for what? So the U.S. and Israel can replace an Iranian ally in Damascus named Bashar al Assad. God protect Assad and may HE strike down any foreigners who intervene on behalf of Al Qaeda (I'm sorry I meant to say the Free Syrian Army...they are one in the same nowadays after all).
cicero| 7.19.12 @ 3:08PM
Nothing good can come from further Western meddling. This is just another typical regime change in the Muslim world. After all, they even tried to assassinate Sulieman the Magnificent in the 12th Century. He had the good fortune to die in bed before his empire erupted in flames. The rebels will either win, and kill or drive Assad out, in which case another one nearly like him will be put in power; or Assad will win, and things will go on the same way. In either event, the resultant ruler will stay in power by blaming the West, and Isreal for his peoples' problems while spending the wealth of the country on himself and his retainers.
Once the Ba'ath Party, and the Ahlawite minority are out of power, the non-Muslim population will have no protection, and will be caught between the Sunni and Shia. Not a pretty picture. For some reason, the West thinks that they are going to talk the Muslim/Arab world out of a thousand years of history. Not going to happen. No matter what we do or don't do, we wil still be objects of hate to them, and will continue to witness streets full of people chanting, "Death to America. Death to Isreal." The dictators need scapegoats in order to remain in power.