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Campaign Crawlers
PACs Pound Nelson
What’s behind the Republican surge against vulnerable Democrat Bill Nelson in Florida Senate race.
TAMPA — A possible explanation for Democratic Florida Senator Bill Nelson’s recent dramatic downward slide in polls is a series of PACs that are spending freely on negative ads against him.
In the space of two months, Nelson, seeking a third Senate term, has gone from 10 points ahead of conservative Republican challenger Connie Mack IV to 10 points behind, at least as measured by Rasmussen. During this time Congressman Mack, son of former Florida U.S. Senator Connie Mack III, has done little or nothing to account for the movement. (Mack faces two opponents in the Aug. 14 primary, but is prohibitively ahead of both in the polls.)
On the basis of the new numbers, the Rasmussen poll has shifted the Florida Senate race from leans Democrat to leans Republican. From April well into June, Rasmussen, as well as Quinnipiac, Pubic Policy and other national polls, consistently showed Nelson ahead of Mack, sometimes by double digits.
Probably the biggest PAC player targeting Nelson is American Crossroads, headed by Karl Rove. The Miami Herald reports this group has reserved $6.2 million of airtime before Election Day to tie Nelson to president Obama and his unpopular policies, particularly Obamacare, in the minds of Florida voters. The Nelson buys are part of $70 million the organization, and its sister group, Crossroads GPS, plans to spend on Senate races to support conservative candidates.
Nelson is already tied to Obama politically. He has voted with the administration more than 95 percent of the time in the Senate. Though doubtless feeling the anti-Obama policy heat in Florida, Nelson has attempted to put some space between himself and his president. Nelson says he would like to see the Bush tax cuts extended for everyone making less than $1 million, rather than the comparatively scrooge-like $250,000 the president is boosting. But there is nothing Nelson can do about his vote for Obamacare, which is very unpopular in Florida, particularly with seniors, most of whom vote.
Other PACs active in singing the anti-Nelson song on Florida airwaves are Americans for Prosperity, 60 Plus Association, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Many of these groups are also airing anti-Obama ads.
These PACs go a long way toward leveling the campaign cash field between Nelson and Mack. As an incumbent, Nelson has been able to put together an available stash of more than $11 million, much of the money collected from outside of Florida. Mack’s campaign has only $1.4 million available.
Not surprisingly, Nelson has been crying foul about all this PAC money chasing after his defeat. Nelson campaign spokesman Marley Wilkes spoke darkly of “a handful of billionaires operating in secret.” Nelson his own self complained of “shadowy right-wing front groups.” Be still, my heart.
Speaking of billionaires, there has been no word yet from the Nelson camp on the possibility that a shadowy billionaire like, just to pick a name out of the air, George Soros, might spend a few quid in Florida to help Nelson out. (That is, when he isn’t shelling out to beat Allen West.)
In the Rasmussen survey released Thursday, showing Mack ahead of Nelson among likely Florida votes 47 to 36, Mack holds an even larger lead among women, 48 to 38, than he does among men, 43 to 37. Nelson, who had held one political office or other in Florida since the First Seminole War, is viewed very favorably by 14 percent, but unfavorably by 25. Mack is viewed very favorably by 18 percent and very unfavorably by 14.
No one knows how well the Mack candidacy will stand up when Nelson starts burning through his $11 million-plus. Mack has his weaknesses as a candidate, and Nelson will go after them. But until now, few thought one of the four seats Republicans need to win in November to take the Senate could be Florida.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
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TLP| 7.13.12 @ 6:24AM
How about we start with - His Face?
Look at him. he looks like an Old Fool. Like he was carved out of a piece of wood. Like he's been Drunk, cince 8am.
His Record - He's never been anything but a Butt Boy, to anyone who was the slightest bit higher than him, in the Liberal's Pecking Order. Making sure he was always on that Podium with Nancy, and Harry and whatever "Tokens" from the RACIST Black Caucus, that they put up there. Always in the back. Always looking outta place. Always a Bridesmaid.
He's been there Forever, and for what?
A career Politician, who'd run your Baby over with his car, to Kiss someone else' Baby, at a Campiagn Event.
A guy who would Dig Up his own Dead Mother, if he thought he needed One More Vote.
He's one of the Poster Childs for Term Limits, Accountability, and an I.Q. Test, at the Voting Place.
With any Luck, he DROPPED DEAD while I was writing this.
If only.
TLP| 7.13.12 @ 8:29AM
And, Larry?
Not for nothin?
You might wanna try harder, when it comes to finding things to write about, and not just take stuff from that Free Paper, that the Mailman puts in your Mail Box on Saturdays.
Your Comment portion of the show, can be a pretty lonely place to be, MOST of the time.
I'm just sayin.
TLP| 7.13.12 @ 8:32AM
As you can see.
It's just me, me, and me.
Seriously.
You need to step things up.
Occam's Tool| 7.13.12 @ 7:24PM
Hey, I still love ya.
My view is go after the Dems everywhere and smash them everywhere. No mercy, no pity, no humanity.
TLP| 7.13.12 @ 7:46PM
Thanks buddy.
I can't tell you how much that means to me.
God Bless.
JimH| 7.13.12 @ 8:57AM
They say write what you know. Larry is a Floridian, so he writes largely about Florida politics. As a 10 year resident of the state I find his observations usually interesting though I can see how someone living elsewhere might be less concerned. For readers on this site, unless you are talking about Rubio, Allen West or maybe Gov. Scott there is not much interest. Tallahassee is a bigger freak show than Gibtown, but possibly because it is the GOP which runs the show he does not shed as much light on its doings as he might.
TLP| 7.13.12 @ 9:24AM
Don't get me wrong.
I'm interested in his stuff.
I'm just pointing out the obvious.
I'd hate to think that we're gonna end up with 50 Seperate Columnists, discussing the things that happen just in their States.
Is it 50?
Cause I thought that I heard The Smartest Man In The World who refuses to release his College Scores, say that there were 57 States.
He must have confused Our 50 States, with the 57 Muslim States, that make up The Muslim Coalition, back where he grew up.
Occam's Tool| 7.13.12 @ 7:26PM
It would be cool to get 50 columnists writing about their states. For example, Tim, you are from Michigan, right? I'd love to know what's going on in Michigan Republican wise.
TLP| 7.13.12 @ 7:47PM
I'm a Yankee.
Butch| 7.13.12 @ 3:50PM
Keep them coming, as far as I'm concerned. I would think a lot of us are interested in the state races for US Senate. We desparately need to wrest control of the Senate from the dems. I considered this good news. Helped, given the bad news about Rice.
Kwan| 7.13.12 @ 10:49AM
Good observations. This picture was snapped either in McGilicuddy's Tavern and he is ordering one for the road (for the seventh time) or he is in a Senate committee meeting trying unsuccessfully to stay focused after an all-night drunk.
TLP| 7.13.12 @ 5:06PM
My new Best Friend.
loulou| 7.13.12 @ 11:24AM
"How about we start with - His Face?"
Too funny. Has there ever been a squinty-er eyed guy? Ever?
Cobalt| 7.15.12 @ 4:03PM
His face?
Bruce Jenner thinks Nelson face is just fine. However, Shephard Smith thinks Nelson needs to do a little more work on the eyes.
Aristocat| 7.13.12 @ 8:39AM
I guess I'm one of the few who knew that Nelson was toast...Thanks, Larry, for stopping your attacks on Connie Mack, who is going to be a great Senator. Nelson is a worthless Democrat liberal...(Aren't they all)
RJ| 7.13.12 @ 9:12AM
Thanks for the good news. May all of the Democratic candidates who voted for the Obamacare obscenity suffer the same fate.
Mimi | 7.13.12 @ 9:32AM
Every last one of them.....The final bunch we couldn't get in 2010 ALL DEMS who voted for Obamacare gotta GO !!!
Reggie Love| 7.13.12 @ 9:29AM
If Mack is beating Nelson by 10 I have a hard time believing Obama is not trailing in FLorida by at least 5-10 pts.
Mimi | 7.13.12 @ 9:36AM
What is with these POLLS....? 1980 revisited..we'll know on election night ....when LIBBY states start to go for Romney! The dems internal polls know whats coming!!!
C'mon Man!| 7.13.12 @ 9:37AM
Timmt, thanks for the laughs today, you are a hoot!
Anthony| 7.13.12 @ 9:43AM
When Rs don't play by the Marquiss of Queensbury rules and act like Ds, good things happen.
One hopesMitt gets the message. He can start with Obozo's demand for tax records. What a softball to whack out of the park!!!
Hey Obozo, what about your records, can we start with a real birth certificate? How did you get a CT S.S. card?
How does a druggy get into Oxidental and then into Columbia? Show us those grades of yours that got you into Harvard Law.
Oh, and why is it that for 17 years you had a publishing company that put out a bio that you were Kenyan? Who wrote the bio, Obozo? And just how does a non descript person of no accomplishment get a publishing company?
Gee, Obozo, it wasn't the "birthers" that put out your bio, YOU DID, so answer the damn questions!!! And that includes your POS press hack, Carney the clown.
Romney wake the hell up!!! This is a no brainer, even for R establishment types.
Anthony| 7.13.12 @ 9:53AM
P.S. How is it that nobody remembers Obozo at Columbia, and that includes a professor emeritus of political science, who taught ALL the important poly si courses for decades, yet Obozo never took his courses???
bill glass| 7.13.12 @ 6:07PM
He was in Moscow, attending Patrice Lemumba University.
Occam's Tool| 7.13.12 @ 7:27PM
Nicely done, O astute Counsellor. (I like some lawyers as people, ya know.)
Occam's Tool| 7.13.12 @ 7:33PM
Anthony: because they were hard, and could not be passed by distributing high grade weed.
loulou| 7.13.12 @ 11:28AM
Obama's benefactor, some Muslim Arab (was it Rashid Khalidi?) got him into Columbia.
Obama has been involved in some strange anti-American activities all his adult life.
fmm| 7.13.12 @ 9:56AM
From what I have read on many political sites, the Florida voters lose whichever one of these guys gets elected. But I will be happy with a Mack win if it helps the GOP take control of the senate.
JayDick| 7.13.12 @ 10:09AM
The more Republicans we have in the Senate, the better. It would be nice to have 60, but that doesn't seem likely. Mack may not be the greatest candidate, but I'll take the R seat over a D any day.
dbsdey| 7.13.12 @ 10:49AM
I am a resident of FL and have been for 33 years, and contact my representatives regularly to comment of upcoming legislation. I called Bill Nelson's office this week to find out how he was going to vote on the ratification of the UN Small ArmsTreaty after it is signed by Hillary Clinton on July 27th. His office staff didn't know that this Treaty will give the UN information on American citizen gun purchases and registration. If this Treaty is ratified, it can nullify the 2nd Amendment. Nelson will vote to ratify this Treaty. Nelson has stated that he will also vote to ratify the UN Law Of The Sea Treaty after it is signed. This Treaty gives the UN control over America's offshore waters with regard to resources. Nelson votes with Democrats no matter what the citizens of FL want. Obamacare is the best example.
Anthony| 7.13.12 @ 11:13AM
If Congress is willing to hand American sovereignty over to the U.N., then we don't need these bastards in Washington, do we? Or John Roberts and the 5 lefties on the Supreme Court, for that matter.
Maybe it's time to put Ds and lefties on the U.N.'s endangered species list, I'm sure one exists.
Better yet, it's long past time that Bloomberg build a housing project to go up where the U.N. currently stands, complete with a melting down of the sculpture in front of the U.N., the one with the handgun with the twisted gun barrel.
The 2nd Amendment is the only thing standing between our Constitutional Republic and the D party and the U.N.'s One World Marxist utopia.
Learn to use a firearm. Tell a friend, and inform all your elected officials in Washington.
Occam's Tool| 7.13.12 @ 7:29PM
See, Anthony, unlike the American Bar Association, you are a Great American and not a Lefty 'Tard. That's why I like you.
Kwan| 7.13.12 @ 11:48AM
Whatdaya expect this guy is a Democrat Party hack. They tell him to jump and he sez how high. Then they throw him a couple of dog biscuits. We know from history that once the best interests of the people and a nation are circumvented for the best interests of a political party's agenda that bad things happen.
Anthony| 7.13.12 @ 12:37PM
I'll repeat my post to another blog. The three most forgotten and ignored words among the Washington establishment are "We The People".
The three most effective words that will re-establish our Constitutional Republic are "Lock and Load".
We know from both history and basic human nature, despite what some lefties think, that fear can be a great motivator for doing what is right.
Tell it to your representatives in Washington, they'll be happy to have heard from you!!
Reggie Love| 7.13.12 @ 4:14PM
"Is Return of The Mac"his campaign song?
Dolor en el trasero| 7.13.12 @ 5:57PM
Nelson has been a really POOR Senator for Florida. HE's the one they should show throwing Grandma over the cliff! Even though HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS of Floridians IMPLORED Nelson to vote AGAINST ObamaCare, old Bill threw us all under the bus and voted for it anyway! Nelson is a DEDICATED SOCIALIST and an ENEMY to the country. I despise this sorry example of a man. The sooner his sorry (deleted) is out of the Senate, the better off the State of Florida will be. Old folks and Latins KNOW he's bad news and we are going to vote his goat-smellin' (deleted) out of Washington in November.
bill glass| 7.13.12 @ 6:04PM
Nelson is saaaaddd. What a pathetic senator for the great state of Florida...He's milked that astronaut schtick as much as possible...time to retire him already.
RJ| 7.13.12 @ 7:07PM
I remember when Columbia was lost, one of the networks introduced him as a former astronaut. He made various statements about the spacecraft. I was surprised later that day when a spokesman from NASA made comments in conflict with Nelson's statement. Then I looked up Nelson's biography and found out he wasn't the typical astronaut. So much for Nelson, so much for the media.
Occam's Tool| 7.13.12 @ 7:32PM
No, Nelson pulled a Garn and made NASA take him up as a Congressman. On the other hand, he does support the Space program, but then again, so do the Reps/Senators fromTexas, Alabama, and Florida, except Ron Paul, who is a scumbag even there.
Immortal 600| 7.13.12 @ 7:47PM
As a Floridian, I will crawl to the polls to vote against Nelson regardless his opponent. I will also be voting for Romney as well.
Parker| 7.14.12 @ 2:59PM
"He's been there Forever, and for what?" Why to fight the Seminoles of course. What a line: "Nelson, who had held one political office or other in Florida since the First Seminole War..." Too funny!
Oldefarte| 7.14.12 @ 10:34PM
Nelson has one flaw as far as I'm concerned, and that is .....he's a Democrat! He like that other Nelson in Nebraska or that Landrieu in Louisiana. They're holdovers from the Clinton side of the ledger, and simply trying to now hang on for dear life after the radical-in-chief trojun-horsed the party [and the country] in 2008. He appears to have no principles, no scruples...just whatever the party elders want. The worst is Pilosi [though expected as being a San Franciscoite] and my mind's burning image of her is exiting the congressional building with the elongated court gavel in hand, laughing at a upward howl and surrounded by the rest of her sleezy band of Democrats. Nelson just appears to me to want to say, do or act anyway/anyhow in order to accompolish his re-election, and as such to be a politician's politician. Again I don't much of him but this is just my opinion from observations!!!!!!!!!!