-
Behind the Iraq Protests
April 18, 2013 | 20 comments
-
Turkey, Iraq, and Oil
April 5, 2013 | 0 comments
-
Sunni Reachout to the Shia Crescent
March 7, 2013 | 7 comments
-
Anti-Islamism in an Islamic Civil War
January 24, 2013 | 9 comments
-
Iraq: Playing the Sectarian Crisis Card
January 2, 2013 | 3 comments
At Large
Rethinking Libya
What explains the Islamist setback in the recent elections?
(Page 2 of 2)
In a recent interview, Jibril stressed that he would be willing to form a coalition government with the Muslim Brotherhood, pointing to the need for “national unity.” While Brotherhood members in Libya have now accused Jibril of engaging in unfair electoral tactics, there is little they can do but try to form a coalition agreement with Jibril’s bloc.
The emerging picture is therefore as follows: As in Iraq, Islamic religious norms will certainly remain a part of daily life in Libya and Islamists — in areas where they wield influence — may organize their own local militias to enforce aspects of Shari’a, but it is unlikely that there will be implementation of a full-blown Islamist agenda on a national level by the government, which will probably be open to engagement by the West.
More generally, an important lesson to draw here is to avoid sensationalism in analyzing developments in Libya, which is yet another parallel with the situation in Iraq and media coverage of events there.
The problem of clashes between competing local militias and tribes is unlikely to be fully reined in for quite some time, while torture and lack of respect for the rule of law will probably remain commonplace.
However, larger-scale reprisals against perceived supporters of Gaddafi’s regime (e.g. the Tuareg, who have consequently fled south into Mali) were already carried out and completed quite some time ago.
Further, one should avoid making too much out of the autonomist movement in eastern Libya, which has welcomed Jibril’s success in the elections and is hoping for a “constructive dialogue” with him on the issue of autonomy, condemning the anti-electoral violence committed by some protesters in the run-up to the elections. The question of autonomy will either be resolved or remain in limbo, and it is unlikely to lead to secession from Libya on the part of Cyrenaica.
What many reports have termed a “localism” trend in the country since the downfall of Gaddafi’s regime should be taken into consideration, yet as in Iraq, the need to preserve an infrastructure for the vital oil industry will prevent a fragmentation of the nation into mini-states along the lines of Dark Age Greece (i.e. the period between the Bronze Age collapse and the appearance of the Homeric epics).
To sum up: Libya is doing much better than I expected. The academic and pundit Hussein Ibish, who on reading my piece “Libya Heading Towards Islamism” suggested that I might be overestimating the strength of the Islamists, got it right. I got it wrong.
About the Author
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University. His website is http://www.aymennjawad.org.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (7) | Leave a comment
More Articles by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
More Articles From At Large
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/07/12/rethinking-libya
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
The Spectacle Blog
Democrat Dan Maffei Blames Budget Cuts for Girl’s Rape, Mother’s Murder
Robert Stacy McCain | 6.18.13
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
c. j. acworth| 7.12.12 @ 7:13AM
Nice to see a journalist revisit a past position and take responsibility for it. Maybe there is hope for the world yet. But I wouldn't count out the extremists in Libya yet. They're like Progressives over here, single-minded, driven to implement thier world view at whatever cost. Anybody see the news item about that Mullah in Egypt who wants to blow up the "pagan" pyramids? Suppose they did it. I personally wouldn't miss 'em, but how much of Egypt's economy depends on tourism? What other reason is there to go except to see all that "pagan" stuff? That's just one example of how insane these people are.
TLP| 7.12.12 @ 8:23AM
Tourism?
Who, in their right mind, would go to Egypt, now?
C'mon, c.j.
This is not a dig.
I'm just sayin.
Wait a minute. I forgot about about The Great White Tourist - Kaminsky. If he hears that they might blow up the Pyramids, he'll grab his poor Bride, and hop the 1st plane over there.
Maybe he can even get some nice shots of his wife, standing in front of them, just before they Blow'em up, and Cut Off Her Head.
Maybe you're on to something, after all?
John786| 7.12.12 @ 7:28AM
Mr Javad says he's got it wrong on Libya: is that news. 99% of mr javads output is prejudiced, islamophobia masquerading as analysis. He should come clean on this. Breaking news:Muslims live according to their traditions, sun rises in the east, water found in oceans.
TLP| 7.12.12 @ 8:12AM
Wow. Michael Hughes at Skank Post called you a Jew? (neocon)
Go figure.
Let's hope that you're right, but I fear that you Underestimate the Rising Tide of the Singleminded Madness in these people.
They blow up their own kids.
They blow up other people's kids.
They trade their Daughters for a Goat. They Stone them to death when there's nothing to do, and nothing on Television.
Islam is a Cancer. Born at the tip of a Sword, it lives on from the Barrel of a Gun, or from a Car Bomb, or a Suicide Vest. And, like a Cancer, it spreads out in to Healthy parts of the Body, until everything is Consumed.
When they have finished Killing Egypt, they will come for Libya. Then they will come for Jordan.
After that it's The Book of Revelation time.
I hope you've prepared.
canuckistani| 7.12.12 @ 11:08AM
You had me until "Revelation". Look in the mirror, you are identical to the jihadis. Is your imaginary friend any better than their imaginary friend? Nope.
Christianity has been a very effective pretext for killers and oppressors alike over the centuries, and serves no purpose to compare or contrast this ethic to Islam. Keep dogma out of civilian discourse.
It has been demonstrated over and over again that limiting religious interference in civil affairs breeds stability and development. Examples:
Turkey, after embracing constitutional secularism. Israel, before the Russians showed up. The US, before the fundies slithered into office.
These are democratic examples. The fascists and commies have co-opted religion just as much as the religious entrenched interests have done, but their basic denial of core human nature - self-interest - was and is their undoing.
Truth to Power| 7.12.12 @ 1:45PM
Last century atheists murdered about a hundred million people. No religious group has ever come close. Well Muslims did murder about 65 million during the conquest of India. You feel clean but have supported the murder of over 50 million babies while mumbling something about choice. Sorry but you are unconvincing.
By the way the undoing of fascists and commies was a determined West that defended itself in a way it couldn't today. We are farther down the post Christian pike.
TLP| 7.12.12 @ 3:58PM
My "Imaginary Friend" preaches Love, and Foregiveness.
The other guy's "Imaginary Friend" preaches Murder, Death, Slavery, Subjugation, Honour Killings, and holding The Most Beautiful Goat Beauty Contests, as well as Promoting Sex with One's Dead Wife, for up to 6 Hours, after she Croaks.
So, yeah.
My "Imaginary Friend" is better.