As the German economic miracle evolved, the rest of Europe —
eventually including post-Soviet Russia — benefited from Germany’s
success that had come about without the military ambitions that had
dominated the 20th century twice before. This was the “good
Germany”: hard working, economically careful, and non-exploitive of
its neighbors, in fact generous in its financial assistance. The
21st century has brought a new problem — and a new Germany.
Put in simple terms, other than Germany most of the European
Union led by France is committed to stimulative measures for a
faltering economy through deficit spending. Germany, reflecting its
naturally disciplined instincts, as well as a desire to protect
itself financially, wants the EU to follow the line of carefully
organized austerity and decreased state expenditures.
Obviously the French view satisfies popular instincts in
debt-ridden Europe as it is based on the concept that government
spending can stimulate economies that will, in turn, provide
employment and encourage private investment. Angela Merkel’s
Germany sees the French plan of its socialist president, François
Hollande, as a mechanism to use German money to provide the
stimulus to make all that happen. The “good Germans” are digging in
their heels. They don’t see much advantage in being that good.
Conveniently available for the blame for the parlous state of
current financial affairs in Europe is the American banking crisis
of 2008 to which European politicians point when seeking to deflect
their portion of responsibility for the sovereign debt problems and
banking failures in their own countries. While the U.S. sub-prime
mortgage financial meltdown certainly contributed to the global
banking crisis, it is factually inaccurate to absolve European,
Middle Eastern and Asian participating financial speculators for
their roles. And that is to say nothing of the fact that Europe’s
sovereign debt is not related to the American private banking
issues.
The Germans haven’t wasted much of their time on this
irrelevance, but they also don’t see why their country should be
expected to pick up the tab for the European Union’s 2012 sovereign
debt profligacy. While the EU implicitly counted on a financially
sound France and Germany, France in recent years has tended to rely
on the economic security that Germany provided. This was the key to
the balance that was essential to maintain France’s central role in
both the economy and polity of the EU. Effectively therefore the
eurozone depends on Germany and the cohesiveness of the European
Union depends on the eurozone.
While Chancellor Angela Merkel may pretend acquiescence during
international financial meetings, such as the recent G-20 in Los
Cabos, the reality is that there is no chance she will agree to
Germany assuming the responsibility for Europe’s indebted nations’
recovery unless there is a greater eurozone commitment to fiscal
restraint. It would be political suicide for her to do otherwise—
to say nothing of very bad national economics. The problem is that
Germany may enjoy the status it has attained as the European
economic powerhouse, but it is not about to assume the
responsibility for a political economic situation contrary to its
own best interests. In basic terms Germany considers the essential
flaw in the eurozone’s creation to be monetary integration without
fiscal integration.
The German people are a far more diverse body than they were
when they took on the world in the days of Hitler’s dictatorship.
Unfortunately for the German Volk the rest of the Western
world may not fully understand the evolution of the country and its
people. German government leaders — Merkel or anyone else —
reflect their body politic and that means while wanting to be good
world citizens, they have no belief they owe the world for their
success. They believe in austerity in times of financial stress and
expect others to accept that as an economic verity.
When it is argued that Germany has a structural problem due to
its dependence on exports to the European Union, the German answer
is consistent. In German the expression used is wirtschaftliche
Einshränkung; meaning economic restriction or more
colloquially, “tightening one’s belt.” When queried why Germany
decided to aid Spain contrary to its previous protestations, the
response was typically German. In May 60 billion euros fled Spanish
banks, ending up mostly in Germany. That was about half the amount
that has been made available to the Spanish government that, in
turn, will bail out the Spanish banks — that will bail out the
Spanish government. Berlin thought that good business and politics.
However, as one German banker said, “The first hundred billion is
the easy part.”
There’s more than one way to conquer Europe — and get them to
like you while doing it. The currently considered concept of naming
an All-Europe Finance Minister and a board to guide that individual
seems to be gaining approval in Germany. Guess who will control
that board and the minister!
Oldefarte| 6.29.12 @ 12:55PM
Germany is entirely correct in their demands for austerity since it is their money being used and demanded to save Europe's ars. How dare these welfaric southern Europeon countires protest and stopm their feet when they caused their own economic demise throught their socialistic governments welfare dispensations. It won't work in Europe and it won't work in the USA. Big government socialism is a recipe for economic death, and that is what this country is following Europe's example over the cliff from. If we don't remedy our stupidity of 11/4/08 and get back to capitalistic economic building measures [by seriously downsizing government and promoting good economic practices], a copy-and-pasting of Europe's problems will describe this country in several years!!!!!!!!!
Brooksifier | 6.29.12 @ 1:31PM
Economically, the Germans and Japanese won WWII.
Brooksifier | 6.29.12 @ 1:30PM
Economically, the Germans and Japanese won WWII.
JmsA| 6.29.12 @ 6:13PM
Only because we helped them rebuild and kept on buying their stuff.
Alej| 7.1.12 @ 5:52PM
She/he/neuter doesn't understand the Marshall plan.
Brooksifier | 7.1.12 @ 6:26PM
The Germans and Japanese are better off than we are- and we defend them with troops in Europe, and our fleet in Asian waters.
They won economically.
Brooksifier | 7.1.12 @ 6:28PM
...what do you think might happen if our forces were to be pulled out of Europe?
Johnimo| 6.30.12 @ 2:50AM
Merkel is playing a dangerous game. She has the upper hand now because other Euro Zone leaders and bankers need German money, and they will concede her dominance. Later, when times may be better they will demand an equal voice and then an "All-Europe Finance Minister could become one of the slop-happy PIGS. It's the basic European structure that needs changing. The nanny state leads to over-spending and lower productivity. How will this lead to long term prosperity? One fears for this future.
Mistral| 6.30.12 @ 2:29PM
In the midst of all of this it is almost certain the UK will seek to leave the EU via a referendum. Social welfare cuts on the way and tighter banking restrictions coming up. The further away the better - financial centralisation and an ever-swelling bureaucracy looks like an emerging super-state with increasing taxes and further loss of personal liberty.
FeFe| 7.6.12 @ 5:31AM
And who will be in charge of writing most of the Dodd-Frank financial services US/EU harmonization regulations that are still missing? Are these the "terms" that Cameron is waiting for before Britons know of their governments final treachery to kill sovereignty? In the past 6 weeks, Chief Justice Roberts has now handed the EU the USA's harmonization with border and healthcare policy. Those unexpected poor economic indicators unexpectedly signaled to the EU the time was finally right to form a High Level Working Group last November under U.S. Trade Representative Kirk for a trade agreement with the Obama administration. The Interim Report was a hit at the G20 meeting in Los Cabos in June. Full steam ahead.
Free movement of peoples - check. Healthcare burden removed from business - check. Tax code harmonization can't be too far behind, right? GHWBush's intergovernmental dream. While the EU is truly broke, Germany will float the euro until after the election because Obama has promised upon his reelected to open the Fed via the IMF for their direct bailout (an "investment") or has Romney returned to his similar promises, too? One party government is the most bipartisan.
Obadiah Plainman| 7.14.12 @ 2:09PM
I have an opinion on the German situation, being a 6th generation immigrant whose family came from Germany to settle in WI. Quite simply, the issue isn't one of economics, it's of culture. The Germans have a much different attitude toward work and thrift than does much of Europe. I understand that is perhaps an oversimplification, but there is a clear dichotomy in how Germany goes about its business--fiscal prudence being a primary hallmark among them--versus the EU.
That rift is growing. Greece is but a blip on the radar really. Sadly, some of Germany's own interests ultimately are tied to Europe overall, so they're more or less on the hook to help; but to what degree? Personally, I think the events as they're unfolding right now expose the fatal flaw in the EU: there can be so pan-european single state panacea. The history of the countries in the EU runs much deeper than what most Americans understand.
Certainly the Germans were beneficiaries of the Marshall Plan and our rebuilding and setting them up for great success. I don't begrudge them that. But it will be interesting to see how German hegemony in the 21st Century plays out, because that's where I think this is heading. Ultimately, the Germans will cut loose from the rest because it's in their DNA to do so.