The latest tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen
show Governor Mitt Romney, respectively, one and four points up
over President Barack Obama. This is news that is almost too good
to be true. Is this a trick or what?
“All of us on the Republican side are pleased where we are in
the presidential election,” said GOP stalwart and former
Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour as
reported by Paul Bedard in the Washington
Examiner.
Citing Ronald Reagan’s 15 point deficit in his 1980 race against
President Jimmy Carter, Governor Barbour mused: “A lot of us
anticipated that while Romney wouldn’t be behind 15 points, would
start off behind.”
Many observers believe all that matters, at the margin so to
speak, is the spread in battleground states such as Ohio where the
RealClearPolitics
average of polls to date has Obama up over Romney by 1.8 percent
and 3 points in purple Virginia. These numbers are generally better
for the President although not out of reach of Governor Romney at
this early stage in the campaign.
Jonathan Bernstein, a political scientist and blogger at the
Washington Post,
challenges the myth that swing-state polls are the key to
predicting the winner.
“In fact, the opposite is true, especially this far from
November,” opines Bernstein. “Generally, elections are determined
by a ‘uniform swing.’ That is, if the Republican candidate does a
little better overall, then he’s going to do a little better in
close states such as Ohio and Nevada, too.”
“So the best way to follow the election is to read the national
polling averages,” claims Bernstein. “National polls have a key
advantage: There are a lot more of them, so we’re less likely to be
fooled by the occasional outlier.”
Moreover, Dr. Bernstein reads the literature to say that
“impressions of the national economy are what really moves votes.”
He cites a recent study which concluded that “voters believe the
president has little effect on their local economy, and they do not
form their evaluation of the national economy based on surrounding
[i.e., local] conditions.… People form their opinions of the
national economy based on non-local factors, such as the national
media.”
Unfortunately for the country, but happily for Governor Romney,
not even the mainstream media can sugarcoat the current economic
situation, which is dire.
Still, at the end of the day, both the Obama and Romney dollars
will focus every bit of their discretionary time and resources on
the dozen or so battleground states while trying to forge messages
that resonate nationally. The local turnout will still be crucial
even if the messaging is national.
At this stage, the overall average of polls, as calculated by
RealClearPolitics, gives the President a slight edge of +0.6
percent over the Governor, factoring in the latest Gallup and
Rasmussen numbers. This is well within the margin of error.
Governor Scott Walker’s resounding victory in Wisconsin and the
steady drizzle of miserable economic news, both domestic and
international, no doubt contributes to Governor Romney’s recent
bump in the polls. So complacency is to be avoided like the
plague.
Yet, the Obama camp must be hearing footsteps over its shoulder.
The economic picture is not going to improve anytime soon. Governor
Romney is coming into his own on fundraising for the general
election campaign and the Republican base is highly motivated.
Even the relentless negative attacks on the Governor for being
successful, rich, a businessman, and being married to an articulate
woman who can
ride horses while battling MS (shame on MSNBC’s Lawrence
O’Donnell) seem to be falling flat with even the Democratic mayor
of Newark
going AWOL and off message from his talking points.
The game is definitely afoot. The opposing candidates are in
equipoise on money, organization and dedicated constituencies
massing on both sides of the economic, social, and cultural divide
that is modern America. It is a most consequential election in
terms of deciding the character of the nation for decades to
come.
