The American Spectator : Romney's Poll Numbers Surprise

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Romney’s Poll Numbers Surprise

By G. Tracy Mehan, III on 6.20.12 @ 6:08AM

Is this a trick?

The latest tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen show Governor Mitt Romney, respectively, one and four points up over President Barack Obama. This is news that is almost too good to be true. Is this a trick or what?

“All of us on the Republican side are pleased where we are in the presidential election,” said GOP stalwart and former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour as reported by Paul Bedard in the Washington Examiner.

Citing Ronald Reagan’s 15 point deficit in his 1980 race against President Jimmy Carter, Governor Barbour mused: “A lot of us anticipated that while Romney wouldn’t be behind 15 points, would start off behind.”

Many observers believe all that matters, at the margin so to speak, is the spread in battleground states such as Ohio where the RealClearPolitics average of polls to date has Obama up over Romney by 1.8 percent and 3 points in purple Virginia. These numbers are generally better for the President although not out of reach of Governor Romney at this early stage in the campaign.

Jonathan Bernstein, a political scientist and blogger at the Washington Post, challenges the myth that swing-state polls are the key to predicting the winner.

“In fact, the opposite is true, especially this far from November,” opines Bernstein. “Generally, elections are determined by a ‘uniform swing.’ That is, if the Republican candidate does a little better overall, then he’s going to do a little better in close states such as Ohio and Nevada, too.”

“So the best way to follow the election is to read the national polling averages,” claims Bernstein. “National polls have a key advantage: There are a lot more of them, so we’re less likely to be fooled by the occasional outlier.”

Moreover, Dr. Bernstein reads the literature to say that “impressions of the national economy are what really moves votes.” He cites a recent study which concluded that “voters believe the president has little effect on their local economy, and they do not form their evaluation of the national economy based on surrounding [i.e., local] conditions.… People form their opinions of the national economy based on non-local factors, such as the national media.”

Unfortunately for the country, but happily for Governor Romney, not even the mainstream media can sugarcoat the current economic situation, which is dire.

Still, at the end of the day, both the Obama and Romney dollars will focus every bit of their discretionary time and resources on the dozen or so battleground states while trying to forge messages that resonate nationally. The local turnout will still be crucial even if the messaging is national.

At this stage, the overall average of polls, as calculated by RealClearPolitics, gives the President a slight edge of +0.6 percent over the Governor, factoring in the latest Gallup and Rasmussen numbers. This is well within the margin of error.

Governor Scott Walker’s resounding victory in Wisconsin and the steady drizzle of miserable economic news, both domestic and international, no doubt contributes to Governor Romney’s recent bump in the polls. So complacency is to be avoided like the plague.

Yet, the Obama camp must be hearing footsteps over its shoulder. The economic picture is not going to improve anytime soon. Governor Romney is coming into his own on fundraising for the general election campaign and the Republican base is highly motivated.

Even the relentless negative attacks on the Governor for being successful, rich, a businessman, and being married to an articulate woman who can ride horses while battling MS (shame on MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell) seem to be falling flat with even the Democratic mayor of Newark going AWOL and off message from his talking points.

The game is definitely afoot. The opposing candidates are in equipoise on money, organization and dedicated constituencies massing on both sides of the economic, social, and cultural divide that is modern America. It is a most consequential election in terms of deciding the character of the nation for decades to come.

About the Author

G. Tracy Mehan, III served at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the administrations of both Presidents Bush. He is a consultant in Arlington, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at George Mason University School of Law.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (117) | Leave a comment Leave a comment

Appleby| 6.20.12 @ 6:34AM

None of this is a referendum on Mitt Romney; it simply indicates that a growing number of people are picking up their pitchforks and lighting their torches to run the current gang out of town on a rail. It is far too soon to start filling balloons with confetti.

Brooksifier | 6.20.12 @ 7:08AM

Funny thing is there is no way an ex-governor of Mass is going to be rightist... Romney is basically a liberal!

The joke (on AS) is so imposing it has not registered yet.

chuck| 6.20.12 @ 7:24AM

Romney is certainly to the right of the Fascist currently occupying the Oval office.

Obama is toast. He will lose 40-45 states.

Parker| 6.23.12 @ 1:09AM

I suspect Romney will defeat Obama. However, I hate to be the one to tell you this, but Romney is a fascist too. So a fascist on the right or the left is still, a fascist. Fascists, as you know, or should know, like to merely control the means of production, (individuals, and private enterprise) through regulation(s) and the agencies which administer those regulations. Both parties embrace this philosophy of governance. I defy you to name one area of your life that government, at any level, does not believe it has the right, the power and the authority, to regulate, control and tax. Just name one. That, my friends, is fascism. Romney won't skip a beat.

Truth to Power| 6.20.12 @ 9:06AM

Romney is to the right of Our Dear Leader. All your foolish predictions will go down the tube. You will have Harry Reid a little longer. He will make a fantastic minority leader.

Brooksifier | 6.20.12 @ 10:51AM

Say Romney wins in November (and he might, he has about a 50-50 chance), he'll change his mind a la "read my lips, no new taxes."

And that doesn't include the old taxes.

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 11:05AM

I'd rather have a liberal than a fascist, which is what we have right now. Romney may not be a true conservative, he may not be as conservative as I would like (he's not), but he will certainly be friendlier to business than the current idiot in chief, who can't seem to get it through his thick skull that if you can't put people to work by demonizing those who hire them.

Occam's Tool| 6.20.12 @ 1:00PM

Big E: absolutely correct. Obama reminds me of the idiot boss in the bumper sticker: "the floggings will continue until morale improves."

You can't tell people that you will punish them with higher taxes, create an unstable regulatory enviornment, and scream at them for wanting to achieve, and then expect them to want to achieve for you. But then, Socialism makes no sense anyway.

bsg| 6.20.12 @ 5:33PM

you should read "Amature" it is truely scary regarding who is actually in the driver's seat of the White House.
I think Romney will at least be aware of the desires of the people. One reason he isn't seen as a conservative is that he was governor in a very liberal state and had to bend that direction in order to work with the legislature. If he has a good right leaning Congress I'll bet we'll see him bare his conservative leanings much more.

TLP| 6.20.12 @ 7:16AM

Help us out Appleby. Tell us who you'll be voting for. Are you gonna help in the battle to BE RID OF the Creature in our White House, who seeks to Fulfill so many of the prophecies in the Bible, with the financial backing of the Nazi Helping, Fallen Jew, Billionaire - George Soros?

Will you stand abreast with the rest of us, as we trod to the Polls, come November, for the purpose of Throwing out the Garbage, and ridding ourselves, and our Children, from the BLACK DEATH, that is this Black President, his Black Criminal Attorney General, and the Criminal Enterprise they are running with their Anti-White, Anti-Christian, Anti-Jew, Anti-Capitalist, Anti-America, PRO MUSLIM Agenda?

Will you help us to do The Lord's Work, in vanquishing this EVIL in our midsts?

Or, do you still think tha your Sh*t don't stink? Are you still clinging to your Precious Integrity, afraid to lose it like that other thing you lost, under the bleachers, with half of the football team, all those years ago? Tell us, Appleby, that we might join you in the Land of Superior Beings. Where One's "Principles" mean more than One's life, or their Children's lives, or their Children's Children.

Tell us, ya Stupid old bag.

Enlighten us.

Brooksifier | 6.20.12 @ 10:53AM

"Fulfill so many of the prophecies in the Bible"

Don't you want the prophesies to be fulfilled? Or do you want to hold onto this world?

Al Adab| 6.20.12 @ 11:13AM

Interesting question that. Now that Russia is putting troops in Syria we might consider what an alliance between Russia and Iran might mean for the future of the ME. While not personally a pre-millenialist, I do understand the point of view. Gog and Magog and all that. It is also interesting to note than a missle from Iran aimed at Tel Aviv would overfly the Valley of Jezreel and the town of Megiddo.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 11:37AM

You're not supposed to ask TLP questions; it disturbs his ranting.

Alej| 6.21.12 @ 4:32PM

Outstanding contribution to the discussion !

TLP| 6.20.12 @ 6:55AM

Real Clear Politics? That's the source of your angst?

RCP is WAPO. It's CNN, and it's the New Tour Times. Kasich will bring Ohio to our side, and last I looked, Governor MacDonald was running a tight ship, in Virginia.

69,000 Jobs, in MAY, the height of hiring season. School's out, now, and America will be teaming with Young, Unemployed Teenagers, with lots of time on their hands. Lots of INNER CITY youth, between 18 - 25, hanging around the hoods, and the barrios, all summer long, in THE HEAT, with nothing to keep them occupied. (No pun intended.)

What could possibly go wrong?

Summer means Flash Mobs. It means Occupy Whatever, and Crap on a Cop Car. It means Protests by the Left's "Interest Groups", no money for Vacation, and a new wave of Foreclosures, across the land.

It means more shots of our Royal Family flying off to Golf, and Beaches, at some place the rest of us can only dream about, as we do our best to Share in the Sacrifice, as His Majesty has instructed. Feeding our Families from the dented cans in The Savers Aisle, at our Local Supermarket, where Hamberger is $6 a lb. Butter is $4, Bacon is a Luxury, and the T.V. Dinner is making a comeback, despite our Cable being turned off.

Can things really get worse?

Are you kidding me?

That's been The Plan, from The One, from The Beginning.

Tearing this Country apart, is the only thing he's actually done right, so to speak.

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 10:48AM

Your assessment of the summer to come is spot on (I fear), and if it's a particularly hot summer, don't forget the part about sitting in polls of sweat because of rolling blcakouts from electricity shortages at peak hours brought by the administration's war on fossil fuel based energy.

All of that should produce a groundswell of support for Romney, but it may also produce the instability and violence that the President wants (and yes, I believe he wants it) to suspecd elections and rule by executive fiat. Reckon his immigration promouncement was a trial balloon?

It's going to be a long hot summer - and it may be an even hotter fall.

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 10:51AM

Should have used the preview button. I meant "sitting in pools of sweat because of rolling blackouts from electricity shortages at peak hours brought on by the administration's war on fossil fuel based energy." Also, I obviously meant "suspend elections" and "immigration pronouncement"

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 7:03AM

I don't know what you're smoking, but the national poll numbers don't mean much. Unless it is completely one-sided by huge numbers, it is the state by state polling that predicts the outcome of the election. And, since the national polls are so close, it's comforting how far ahead the President is in enough States to win. Why he might even win Arizona, can you believe it?

TLP| 6.20.12 @ 7:23AM

No. Or anything else you say.

He might win Arizona.

He MIGHT get Swept.

Think about that, the next time you've got a Hot Dog in your mouth, staring at Obama's picture.

Think about that when HIS PEOPLE put America's Cities, to the Torch, this Summer. This long HOT Summer with No Jobs for his Inner City Bros and Hoes.

Idiot.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 9:12AM

Americans are a forgiving people that look out for one another. They don't blame President Obama for the economy's shape.
As for polling, you really ought to be up on the latest polls before you open your trap.
Romney is only up by 3 pts in AZ, within the margin of error. That's hardly a sweep in a traditionally red state.

JP| 6.20.12 @ 9:37AM

You could be correct. Unlike the economic meltdown of 1932, there exists $1 trillion worth of income redistribution that have prevented Hoovervilles, huge breadlines, and the kind of misery we saw in the 1930s. People, in general, are better off due to these massive subsidies. And as a result, the President doesn't face the kind of grass roots voter wrath that eventually did in Carter. But, Obama and the Dems have run up $5 trillion in defecits as a result. The US economy will eventually have to answer for this. The can has been kicked down the road beyond 2012. The question remains as to whether enough people will wake up in time. My thinking is - No.

Most voters do not realize that thier extended unemployment benefits, farm subsidies, student loans, food stamps, and WIC payments are being borrowed from children that will not be born for another decade or more.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 12:57PM

So we should raise taxes on those that can afford it now - obviously those out of work cannot. The "kill the government" mantra of Grover Norquist doesn't play well when friends, neighbors and relatives are hurting from the Bush Depression.

JP| 6.20.12 @ 1:59PM

Now, I wouldn't call what we're going through in 2012 the Bush Depression. Officially, the Bush Recession ended in Jun 2009 (that is, 3 years ago). The lack of GDP growth as well as jobs cannot be blamed on Bush, as he was been out of office since Jan 2009, and the Dems had super majorities in Congress and occupied the Oval Office from Jan 2009-Jan 2011.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 10:41AM

"They don't blame President Obama for the economy's shape."

Ummm...yes, they do. And they should. It's HIS fault. This is the "Obama Economy."

He's done NOTHING to fix the economy, and the fix is really quite simple:

Cut taxes.
Cut spending.
Cut government.
Cut entitlements.

Forgiving does NOT equal "stupid."

"Liberal" does.

Obama loses by a landslide in November. Count on it.

Brooksifier | 6.20.12 @ 10:56AM

"Cut taxes.
Cut spending.
Cut government.
Cut entitlements."

Romney wont do much about the above.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 11:39AM

Yes, he will.

He's not the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan, but he's not tone-deaf, either.

If Romney wins and the GOP controls both houses of Congress, look for the instant repeal of ObamaCare; that's a huge cut in government size, spending, and entitlements.

Also, look for a repeal of the death tax.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 12:59PM

Proof please ... I have seen the proof of just the opposite. Fully 1/2 of Americans blame Bush, 25% blame Obama and 25% blame Republicans in general. Interesting news you can't swallow, I know. But if you can show proof of your pronouncements, I'll listen.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 2:22PM

Proof?

OK.

Scott Brown, R-Massachusetts...In Fat Teddy Kennedy's seat.

November, 2010 mid-terms.

June, 2012 Wisconsin recall election.

Unemployment = >8%...since Obama took office.

I don't know where you're looking for your information...most likely your Libby friends in OWS...but you may have missed the GLARING inconsistency in your "logic." It goes like this:

IF 50% blame Bush, but only 25% blame the GOP...

How does that help Obow-ma??? Hmmmmmmmm????

Occam's Tool| 6.20.12 @ 5:10PM

I blame that motherhumpin' Commie loving antisemitic treasonous scumbag for the state of the economy and many other problems, purp.

I distinctly remember Juarez being safe to drive through in 2005 when I had my dental implants put in.

Von Mises Jr| 6.20.12 @ 9:21AM

TLP, forget Purpie/Jefferson/?/?..... He is a Soros MoveOn Troll. His contribution to the GDP is zero. He is a leach on food stamps that refuses to work a real job. His product is communist "Two Minutes" hate based on Envy and Greed.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:01PM

You're an idiot that no one listens to. you like to pontificate but never solve any real problem, and you're as wrong as you can be. I'm sure I got back more in tax refund than you paid in. You're the one who is envious and greedy, trying to use Von Mises to give you some credibility - but it doesn't work outside an Ivory Tower.

Von Mises Jr| 6.20.12 @ 1:12PM

So what is it a MoveOn Troll actually adds to the GDP?
At least Gobbels was good at it. You suck as a troll to boot. You don't even have good propaganda.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 2:23PM

"You're an idiot that no one listens to. you like to pontificate but never solve any real problem, and you're as wrong as you can be."

And you voted for Obama! And you're dumb enough to think he's smart!!!!

Glass houses, liberal dimwit...

chuck| 6.20.12 @ 7:27AM

Yea, keep telling yourself that, purp.

Obama is toast.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 9:14AM

I don't - the polls tell me .. The writer of this article is pulling a dream from a nightmare named Mitt RobMe.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 10:45AM

Yes, of course...you prefer the black guy who's never done anything, run anything, managed anything, created any wealth, or had an original idea...

...Over the white guy who has.

You're a perfect liberal stooge. Or, as Stalin used to say, a "useful idiot."

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:04PM

We don't need wealth creator running the country - there are plenty of people that do that.
But that kind of wealth creation - it's not for the benefit of all, private equity "wealth" is created off the misery of others at their expense. It's the Wall Street way (Gordon Gecko anyone? )
Other than Gecko, RobMe is a moderate in social values and you all will be quite surprised as he flip-flops back to his roots - that is, IF he wins and that is no foregone conclusion.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 2:27PM

Hey, dummy...

Can you name the President who's received MORE money from "private equity" than any other President in US history?

Here's a hint, jackass: OBAMA.

You REALLY are a useful idiot for the cause. And you're as ignorant as they come on economics.

Gordon Gecko is a fictitious character, jackass, born in the mind of another WEALTHY liberal hypocrite named Oliver Stone.

And please explain how private equity creates wealth "off the misery of others at their expense"...

...Go ahead, genius. We're waiting for your brilliant economic insights.

You really are an ignorant fool. You know NOTHING. You don't even know what you don't know.

CJW| 6.20.12 @ 8:18AM

I think Purpie is either Biden or Pelosi. Neither have anything to do so he/she post here. The quality of the comments is definetely in the Pelosi/Biden range.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 9:13AM

Why? Because you don't believe it? Go look at the latest polling in AZ and find out for yourself.

MK48| 6.20.12 @ 11:01AM

Purp.........POLLS=PROPAGANDA=LIES

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:06PM

At RealClearPolitics.com? Really? It's a right-wing site and the proof/truth is there for all to see and weep. Sorry, but CAPS don't change the truth.

Von Mises Jr| 6.20.12 @ 9:19AM

I have to disagree, CJW. Purpie is an ignorant and obnoxious commie bastard, but he is no Pelosi or Biden.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:11PM

You really think "Commie bastard" is some horrible expletive, don't you? It's a stupid comment, since Communism has long died off as a system to emulate. There are still a few hanger-oners, like China/Korea/Cuba, but China is quite different than in the past.
So Commie is a term from a bygone era, and Socialism is another stupid term you bring up. This country, right AND left are capitalists - we just differ in the degree of capitalism - unfettered free-for-all dog-eat-dog world (right wing) capitalism that serves the few or regulated, controlled broad capitalism that serves the many. But we are all capitalists and we are all Keynesians.

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 1:42PM

Barack Obama is no capitalist.

The extent to which anyone in this country is a Keynesian is the extent to which they are forced to be at the point of a gun.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 2:31PM

Communist and Socialist are not "dead" as terminology...they're perfect to describe Obama and his idiotic policies.

Once again, your ignorance is on display.

I may live in a Keynsian system, but I don't subscribe to his theories, which are proven failures.

FYI..."Dog-eat-Dog" capitalism is how it works. It means you rise or fall based on your own abilities...or in your case, the lack thereof.

"Controlled" capitalism is an oxymoron. But you're just a moron.

Von Mises Jr| 6.20.12 @ 3:28PM

Dear Doctor Right,
If Perpy/Jefferson/?/?.......were not such an A$$hole, we might give him charity. He apparently does not have any marketable skills.

Conservatives actually help out with our time and money. I am off to cook for a Fair. All I expect is some gratitude for doing charity work, and for a troll, commie like Perpy/Jefferson/?/?.......it ain't enough. He is entitled to so much more. Someone promised him.....our stuff.

JD| 6.20.12 @ 3:42PM

Liberalism thrives by changing the meaning of words. "Regulated, controlled broad capitalism" is fascism, not capitalism at all. Fascism thrives by making people think it is still capitalism.

The liberal heavily subsidizes some players in an economy while imposing harsh regulations on others, then claims that the results come from a "free market," which is blamed for any negative consequences.

Occam's Tool| 6.20.12 @ 5:11PM

Purp: I don't think the Left Wing in this country is for Capitalism, dork. And Keynes is a blitherer.

Harry the Horrible| 6.20.12 @ 8:59AM

Gotta agree. The vast majority of states are pretty much committed one way or another. Right now the only polls that are meaningful are the polls of likely voters in the battle ground states like Ohio and Florida.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 10:43AM

And WHY would Ohio - a BIG coal state - vote for Obama in 2012???

Obama = toast.

Harry the Horrible| 6.20.12 @ 12:55PM

Beats me. I still don't understand why anybody voted for Obama in the first place, unless, of course, they are committed Marxists.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:13PM

Two words - Auto Industy.
Illinois is a coal state too, so what?

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 2:32PM

Auto industry...or auto unions?

They're not he same, jackass...

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 10:05AM

"the national poll numbers don't mean much"

Purp, you would (naturally) be trumpeting how important the national poll numbers are if Obama was up 10 points in them. In fact, if the only polls showing Obama ahead were those taken among reindeer herders in Lappland, you would be trumpeting those polls as the only ones that really matter.

Al Adab| 6.20.12 @ 11:26AM

National polls have nothing to do with it nice as they are. It comes down to electoral votes and the States the GOP must have to prevail. FL, NC, VA and Ohio are some of them but it takes more. In '08 the count was 365 to 173. Where can the GOP find the hundred votes they need and can Romney deliver?

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 11:47AM

Please note, I made no prediction, I only pointed out that Purp is a hypocrite without actually calling him one. As you can see from my comment below, I put no stock in polls for a variety of reasons.

My prediction since the Iowa caucuses has been that a Romeny nomination equals an Obama re-election, and that the race is Obama's to lose. I still stand by those - for now. The fact is that 50% of the people in this country pay no taxes, and a shocking percentage live partially or entirely off the fruits of other people's labor. I see no reason to believe those people will vote to take themselves off the gravy train and put themselve on the chain gang.

I also believe this fall's election will be the bloodiest and most corrupt in our nation's history. I also believe it may be our last.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:18PM

Your 50% number is incorrect. Everyone pays payroll tax, social security, medicare tax, state income tax (assuming your state has a tax) if you are working. If you are not, you still pay sales tax and a myriad of other taxes, called fees.
So, let's get off the "50% pay no taxes" bs and be glad you make enough to pay Federal income tax. You're one paycheck away from disaster, so try and be an American with a heart.

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 1:46PM

I figured 49.5% was close enough to round to 50. That's the percentage YOUR OWN IRS REPORTS!

I know, I know, you're a liberal, so such things are a tenet of religious faith to you and therefore are not subject to correction by such piddly details like facts.

The day will come Purp when you come face to face with reality, you will not prepared for it, and you will not like it. And nothing you do or say, no fantasy which you choose to believe, will keep reality from grinding you into the dust.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 2:34PM

WRONG.

50% of this country pay NO taxes.

Please explain why someone on the dole would pay payroll tax? Or social security tax?

And NO, I'm not "1 paycheck from disaster."

You-Are-Ignorant.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:14PM

Actually, he is ahead in the National Polls, just not by much. Sorry to burst your right-wing bubble - but you are losing ... the article writer is on drugs.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-1171.html

MK48| 6.20.12 @ 11:09AM

Columnist Andrew McCarthy gives us what probably is the most important
question regarding the upcoming presidential election….

“…..if Mitt wins the nomination, as seems very likely, I will
enthusiastically support his candidacy. For my friends who have
hesitation on that score, I’d just ask you to keep four things in
mind:

Justice Scalia just turned 78

Justice Kennedy will turn 78 later this year

Justice Breyer will be 76 in August

Justice Ginsburg turned 81 about a week ago.

We wish them all well, of course, but the brute fact is that whoever
we elect as president in November is almost certainly going to choose
at least one and maybe more new members of the Supreme Court — in
addition to hundreds of other life-tenured federal judges, all of whom
will be making momentous decisions about our lives for decades to
come.

If you don’t think it matters whether the guy making those calls is
Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, I think you’re smokin’ something funky….”

So for anybody who is thinking of not voting because your favorite
didn’t get nominated, or writing in a candidate who can't win...
Imagine this:

SUPREME COURT JUSTICE ERIC HOLDER

Al Adab| 6.20.12 @ 11:28AM

Of course this is one issue, bu7t don't forget Bush tried Harriet Myers. It took a Conservative outcry to change that. Romney, to the left of Bush, would try to appoint whom? Even should he somehow be elected, Conservatives will have to watch him every minute; he is no Conservative.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 11:40AM

Why do we assume that Romney is "to the left" of Bush??

Al Adab| 6.20.12 @ 2:21PM

It would be awful haed to put him to Bushes right. His acceptance of the bureaucratic administrative social-welfare state flies in the face of anything to which Conservatives (Bush 43 being more so relative to Romney) adhere.

Harry the Horrible| 6.20.12 @ 12:56PM

If you look at Romney's record of judicial appointments in the People's Democratic Republic of Massachusetts, you'll find that appointments were mostly liberals, some radically so.

I don't have much hope no matter who wins.

bjb57| 6.20.12 @ 11:31AM

Purp,

If you believe Obama really has a chance to take AZ you should go to Intrade and take a bet on that. You'll get pretty good odds.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 11:41AM

Obama just pissed-off a sizable portion of Arizonans who might have been inclined to vote for him.

Don't expect a Obama to win Arizona unless you really like being disappointed.

Al Adab| 6.20.12 @ 2:22PM

Hello Purp:
Have you looked up the meaning of Adab yet? BTW it is a very good Arabic language literary magazine.

Stormzeye| 6.20.12 @ 7:13AM

What I can't believe, Purp, is that you can read poll numbers with your head up your arse. Now that's an impressive feat!

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 9:16AM

Take you head out of yours and read the polls idiot:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-1757.html
RCP is a right-leaning site, and still Obama squashes Mitt RobMe

JD| 6.20.12 @ 3:21PM

Your own link shows Romney in the lead.... maybe your browser cached old results for you?

Derek Leaberry| 6.20.12 @ 9:05AM

This is not the most consequential election in the near future. Neither party has a real plan to keep the nation from budgetary implosion. And the American people have come to no consensus on how to deal with the budgetary implosion. Western Civilization and the modern welfare state are in a slow-motion collapse which may intensify at any time. Whether Obama or Romney is in charge makes little difference.

We are living through extraordinary historic events, perhaps vaguely similar to those experienced by St. Augustine of Hippo with the barbarian Vandals knocking at the door. Of course, in America and Europe, the barbarians are inside the host.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 9:17AM

A fair analysis actually - and unfortunately for our futures. Term limits and public financing of elections might be able to change the trajectory.

JP| 6.20.12 @ 9:39AM

Public financing of election only guarentee that things will continue until we eventually run out of other people's money.

JP| 6.20.12 @ 9:39AM

Public financing of election only guarentee that things will continue until we eventually run out of other people's money.

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 10:28AM

So Leaberry opines that Western Civilization may be in an irreversible state of collapse and your prescription to stem the tide is term limits and public financing of elections? We don't need to stop spending trillions of dollars we don't have on programs which return no value on investment, or on projects designed solely to transfer wealth from the shrinking number of those who work for a living to the President's political cronies, oh no, we don't need to do any of those things, we just need to have term limits and publicly financed elections.

My daughter's guinea pig has a better plan for the future than that.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:25PM

Huh?
I'd believe more that on a grand historical sweep, Western Civ needs another Killer App that put us on top in the first place. The Killer App comes first, then the First Position. And Free Enterprise did not do that.

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 1:48PM

Oh, so term limits and publicly financed elections are your "killer app?" You're a bigger idiot than I thought you were. Thanks for just proving it for me.

JD| 6.20.12 @ 3:25PM

Why should people be prevented from reelecting a good representative if they want to? Term limits are just an attempt to make a system that's smarter than the people, which never works (because people run the system) and is always oppression.

As for public financing, it's just another example of the Left's inability to understand what money is. The Left seeks any means available to legitimize suppression of conservative speech, so it seeks to restrict funding from conservative sources while continuing to allow liberal forces to get their message out in ways that work around the limits.

We get it - so long as the only way to work around the limits is the blogosphere, the unemployed handout recipients will out-speak those who have to work every day. That's why you want the currency of elections to be idle time, and nothing else.

Occam's Tool| 6.20.12 @ 5:14PM

Purp: Free Enterprise DID do that. Review the history of military developments prior to the Battle of Lepanto.

Alej| 6.21.12 @ 4:41PM

Strict voter qualifications are the ONLY way to change the course of this country.

Short of pyrotechnically. Speaking of "trajectory."

Dolor en el trasero| 6.20.12 @ 9:05AM

It may well be that the major Polling organizations don't want to lose ALL of their credibility this time around. There's a feeling in the air that a LANDSLIDE is in the offing and the Pollsters, normally with skewed polls in favor of Democrats, see it coming.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 9:17AM

A dreamer is born every minute....

Dolor en el trasero| 6.20.12 @ 9:37AM

You're right JERK. I dreamed for eight years of getting out of Castro's jail so I just MIGHT have chance at coming to the US. Yeah, I'm a dreamer. I dream of a country where my kids can live free of fear from JERKS like you an your Masters. Guys like you with your Che T-shirts make me want to puke! If you think SOCIALISM is so good, why not move to Havana and try it first hand? They are always looking for wiseguys like you to cut Cane for the Revolution.

irish19| 6.20.12 @ 10:09AM

Well said!!

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:44PM

What's wrong with Socialism? You live it every day. But I don't promote socialism, just benevolent capitalism, which is the best system ever invented. It just cannot be allowed to run roughshod over those that aren't the Elites, because, as the 2008 Bush Depression shows us, it will run over the rest of us while the Wealthy Elite make a killing.
BTW - sticks and stones ... I thought you'd have learned that in grammar school.
Havana? Socialism? You need to learn something.

JD| 6.20.12 @ 3:28PM

"Benevolent capitalism" is either redundant or a contradiction, depending on what you mean by it. Straight capitalism is benevolent, but modified capitalism is a contradiction. The bottom line is that you continue to parrot the party line that the Recession was caused by "abuse from the elites", despite the absurdity of your evidence and the far stronger counter-evidence showing the links from government policies to bad credit.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 4:18PM

Then be benevolent with your own damn money, jackass...if you actually earn any.

Occam's Tool| 6.20.12 @ 5:16PM

Purp: it would be nice if you ever had talked to survivors of Concentration Camps or Communism. You might learn something, pendejo. (Dolor, I am using pendejo correctly in referring to purp, yes?)

Dolor en el trasero| 6.20.12 @ 6:31PM

Purp (JERK) there is a name in my country of origin for morons like you. You sir, are a PENDEJO! What's wrong with SOIALISM? Plenty. But again, Pendejo, why don't you move to Havana and expeience SOCIALISM first hand? If you like the Liberal Socialist Obama and his criminal party, you'd LOVE the Castro regime. You could wear a beret, wear your Che T-Shirt and run around spouting SOCIALIST Slogans all day long. Now then, eating might be a little bit of a problem for you, but wait...you could always PIMP yourself on the streets for a few grams of rice or maybe a bean or two. You are EVERYTHING about that word...PENDEJO! And, you are so STUPID but no doubt do well on welfare, foodstamps and Title 8 housing.

Alej| 6.21.12 @ 4:43PM

Bien dicho, amigo !

Von Mises Jr| 6.20.12 @ 9:26AM

The rats in the MSM are fleeing the sinking ship. They tried to tell us it is all about a couple states, and I am sure the author is talking about the commie Jared Bernstien who is telling us we don't see the closed storefronts in our states or the "Foreclosed" sign on our neighbor's lawn.
We see Barry going to Hawaii and Anna Wintour with a new dead animal for her shoulders so we know it is all good.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:49PM

If 8, 10, 15 million are not working, how many ARE working ? 130 million or so? Hmmm, that's just awful, huh? In any case, however you view it, you can blame your Dubya idiot, he left an awful mess to clean up, and your Rep boys have been no help whatsoever. Or did you miss that part?

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 4:19PM

What mess, exactly, did George W. Bush cause?

Can you explain it? Summarize it?

'Cuz I'd like to know.

JP| 6.20.12 @ 9:29AM

If one looks at the states that Obama has "in the bag" (states that will vote for him no matter how bad things get) the electoral numbers are depressing. New York, Illinois, Californai, New Jersey, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, Minnisota, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Conneticut, MA, Rhode Island, Hawaii, DC, and Michigan are strongly if not competly in Obama's bag. They account for 233 electoral votes. He only needs to pick up a combination of 38 additional electoral votes to win (Florida and Colorado for instance).

Mitt has to register some big upsets (Wisconsin and Michigan, for instance) as well as run the tables on the swing states to win. Tall order.

Purp| 6.20.12 @ 1:50PM

Even Fox News Polls and Rasmussen? Really?

JP| 6.20.12 @ 2:54PM

None of these polling firms do state-by-state polls; it's just too expensive. But, we can make some assumptions. The Big Three haven't of New York, California, and Illinois, haven't voted for a GOP President since 1988. Pennsylvania has voted Democrat in 5 straight Presidential elections (yes, 2004 was close. But, over-all it has been trending towards the Dems); New Jersey, Vermont, MA, Michigan, Minnisota, and Wisconsin are all reliable Democrat states. And recent polls during the GOP primairy show no change in this trend. Wisconsin and Michigan are believed to in play. But, until new polling shows otherwise, I assume they will break towards Obama.

Al Adab| 6.20.12 @ 4:15PM

JP:
The electoral count in '08 was 365 to 173. Your analysis is correct. Assuming no McCain state changes sides (as AZ for example may) for if one did all is lost, the GOP would need FL, NC, VA and Ohio PLUS another 20 votes from where? Perhaps Iowa or CO, but unlikley so that still leaves any hope short. It is saddening, but there it is.

Doctor Right| 6.20.12 @ 4:21PM

Romney will win Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

It's over for Obama.

Too much pessimism on tis board.

Al Adab| 6.20.12 @ 4:51PM

Dr:
It would be wonderful were you correct, but I'd put a Twenty against WI, MI and PA.

Occam's Tool| 6.20.12 @ 5:19PM

Minnesota should not be counted out. We voted out Oberstar, you know.

Larry Engel| 6.20.12 @ 9:32AM

Just ask 60 percent Democrats and 40 percent Republicans in a poll, and voila, you get a 50/ 50
break. Me think the polls are BS

Pecos Pete| 6.20.12 @ 9:58AM

The polls are mostly BS. As someone above said, look at the for sale signs, the empty store fronts, the number of people out of work, etc. The unemployment numbers put out by King O's labor department are so manipulated as to be laughable, and many of the same people are turning out poll numbers that are just as laughable. Come November, King O will be burnt toast looking for a country willing to provide him a home.

paintbrush| 6.20.12 @ 10:01AM

Interesting to see that you are refusing to employ the time-honored principles of modern peer-review ; when the government and popular celebrities believe something is true, then it must be true. My guess is , that you and other pundits all over the country have already begun discarding notes, journals and other trappings of tired old empirical method in an attempt to validate your premise. It’s hard to understand why people like you still refuse to believe in modern scientific Marxism, Keynesian economics, and anti-poverty programs that have ended poverty and other state approved facts…..go figure…….

Pecos Pete| 6.20.12 @ 10:12AM

What? "... modern scientific Marxism, Keynesian economics ... that have ended poverty"

What rock did you crawl out from under?

mike 3/505| 6.20.12 @ 10:56AM

I think that was sarcasm....at least I hope it was.

Occam's Tool| 6.20.12 @ 5:21PM

"tired old empirical method," "when the government and popular celebrities believe something is true"---Pecos, I think the snark/sarc meter was pegged.

paintbrush| 6.20.12 @ 6:41PM

Yes this was sarcasm....good grief

The Big E| 6.20.12 @ 10:42AM

Polls are (a) easy to manipulate, (b) not necessarily accurate due to a variety of factors, and (c) way too early to make a difference at this point anyway. The purpose of public polling at this point is to CREATE news, not report it. As such, I am loathe to lend any credit to polls, even when they report what I consider good news.

I think this year in particular, we will find polls to be particularly unreliable. Polls cannot account for the number fo people who will tell a pollster they will vote for the President simply because they don't want to be perceived as a racist, when in fact they have no intention of actually voting that way; or the number of people who will tell a pollster they will vote for the President because they fear retribution from their Union, when in fact they have no intention of voting that way; or the number of votes which will be cast for the President from voters who could not be polled because they are either dead or have never existed.

The election of 2000 was arguably won in the Courts. The election of 2012 may ultimately be won in the streets, but it will not be won in news-generating public polls in June.

David| 6.20.12 @ 10:47AM

The fact that the race is even, after all everyone SHOULD KNOW about Bam Bam, the sh_tty results of his governance, his thuggish behavior, his complete disconnect from reality in his speeches, etc., indicates to me that 50% of Americans are still morons.

But that is what you get when 50+% are getting handouts. Very sad.

Who Knows?| 6.20.12 @ 11:44AM

Obama didn’t need “no stinking badges” to pander to the Hispanic voters with his latest “discretionary” executive order.

Learn from him!

People living their own lives don’t need POLLS!

Nationwide polls, statewide polls, telephone polls, generic polls, biased polls, historical polls, in person polls, exit polls, push polls, May poles?

So many polls.

We’re all poll-ish.

Weren’t those fools, who, back in the day, argued about how many angels could dance on the head of a pin, funny?

Don’t be a 2012 fool, and give any attention to our media plantation bosses, as they whip us with polls. Go plant a tree.

Oh well, at least I get a laugh about people going ape shit over meaningless polls---court jesters and their audience.

Be love.

Tom Kyba| 6.20.12 @ 12:35PM

The funniest thing about the snarky comments from the troll booth, is that one can only assume that these people actually think Narcissus is a good president. What a strange and wondrous thing liberalism is.

Dilbert| 6.20.12 @ 3:32PM

I am so glad Romney is in the lead, that way I don't have to vote for him to have him win the election.

Gary B| 6.20.12 @ 7:39PM

"It is a most consequential election in terms of deciding the character of the nation for decades to come."

And the character of the candidates will decide the election. Who is best to lead us out of the moral and economic mess we're in? Romney, the successful Mormon businessman or Obama the anti-American dictator wannabe? I think Americans have seen enough to know which path will work.

St Reformed| 6.21.12 @ 1:32PM

The Rasmussen/Gallup polling data gets lost amidst the polling noise. For example, Bloomberg yesterday put Obama ahead by 13%! [They surveyed the MSNBC newsroom.] Today's AP/GfK poll put Obama ahead by 3%. [The party ID distribution was 49%D/39%R/12% I or other.] How else can they gin up the base?

John II| 6.21.12 @ 2:56PM

Point of linguistic order, Purp. "Capitalism" wasn't "invented." Only the term "capitalism" was invented.

Its referent--the market economy--was discovered. It's the way the world works when the world is permitted to work without the ham-handed intrusions of people who think (so to speak) like yourself.

On the other hand, "socialism" is indeed an invention, and is therefore properly identified as an "-ism." The term designates a cluster of ways in which the world doesn't work when people who think like youself apply your ham hands to the way the world does work.

Socialists such as the Professor still exist in abundance. I have worked among them for several decades now. The distinctive thing about them, apart from predictable personal problems, is that they don't give a damn about how the world works. They are interested only in the exercise of power, and their one incidental insight into the way the world works is to foster dependency by means of screwing up the way the world works.

And now back to "Psycho" (1960), a scary Hitchcock vehicle in which Anthony Perkins plays a socialist. The more talented Anthony Hopkins, who came to America because he's not a socialist, will be playing Alfred Hitchcock in a flick due to be released next year.