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At Large
Death on Ancient Battlefields
There is every reason to expect a long war in Syria, with or without U.S. involvement.
One way or another the brutal conflict underway in Syria appears to be going to last longer than anyone might have expected. Just last weekend the Free Syrian Army began sending out communiqués from its newly established information office in Beirut. That’s always a sign that funding has grown to the point of underwriting a political program. Establishing a successful information profile is an essential step in unifying an opposition front — or at least creating that appearance. The Russians have made it clear they intend to do what is necessary to ensure the maintenance of their rented Mediterranean naval base at the port of Tartus; and the Iranians continue to supply money and materiel to support their rented relationship with the friendly Shia-related regime of Assad in Damascus, ensuring Tehran’s land bridge of influence through to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
From the ever nervous White House come the explanations of its lack of a more active support for the Syrian rebels by suggesting they don’t really know well enough the make-up of these government opposition forces. There are good reasons not to get involved militarily in Syria, but not knowing the components of the opposition is neither persuasive nor true. The real deterrent to military action against Bashar al Assad’s forces is the size of his army of active units numbering 295,000, according to the 2011 figures of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The army reserve adds an equal amount. The IISS authoritative publication Military Balance noted in the same year that this manpower was backed by 4,959 battle tanks (though only 50% operational) and 3,400 artillery tubes. Defections from the Syrian Army have made little inroad on the active regular units, though there has been a definite weakening in the reserve. The Israelis have made it clear they consider the regulars a formidable fighting force and the Syrian Air Force, plus SAM’s, an adequate initial defense against foreign air attack, though requiring substantial reinforcement for prolonged combat.
The make-up of the rebel forces may be complex and dispersed, but it’s not unknown. Perhaps the most immediately active source of finance and materiel comes from Sunni Muslim organizations, political and military, from across the border in Lebanon. This includes assistance that originates from the Saudis, Qataris, and expatriate Syrians from all over the world, as well as the various chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood. The most obvious organizational aid comes from the Al-Mustagbal group operating out of Tripoli, Lebanon led by Saad Hariri, the son of the late Lebanese leader, Rafiq Hariri. It is clear that Saad would do everything he could to destroy Bashar Assad who the younger Hariri believes was ultimately responsible for the killing of his father.
Even more extensive is the logistical support provided by militias loyal to Sheikh Shadi al- Mawlawi. Israeli sources reliably report that arms and ammunition are smuggled into Syria from Lebanon by his Salafist forces. Syrian intelligence has put pressure on the Lebanese General Security Department to place known anti-Syrian Sunnis like al-Mawlawi under detention. The result has been a security sweep of the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli rounding up all suspects — including al-Mawlawi — for “terrorist operations.” Reportedly he was released shortly after.
Lebanon is not the only route of supplies and intelligence for Syria. Jordan and Turkey provide access from the south and north respectively. But the system of smuggling tends to be the same from wherever it comes. Perhaps the best example of the system in process, however, can be shown by what happens via a distribution point such as that of Al Qusayr, which is strategically situated about 5 km from the major city Homs. Al Qusayr is a sizable town of 40,000 people (including one third refugees), not far from the mountainous border of north Lebanon. It is one of the numerous “centers” that house the men and materiel that then connect with the disparate rebel elements that are spread across the Syrian landscape.
Al Qusayr is protected by two currently company-sized “brigades” of the Free Syrian Army: one unit is formed of regular soldiers that came over with their weapons and own commander. This is fairly unusual. The other is a mix of reservists and young able civilians. This latter group is more typical of the types of units being formed all over the country where they can be supported by outside assistance even though there is no central leadership. In many areas, unfortunately, there are only resistance groups comprised of courageous but inept civilians armed only with what weapons they can find in their communities. It is to destroy all these various units and the city, town and village environment in which they exist that the Syrian Army and its functional allies, the former criminal gangs now called militia, focus their attacks. It is classic Russian “scorched-earth,” anti-insurgent tactics evolved and perfected in Chechnya.
For its part the Syrian Army has been used primarily for its armor and artillery power within major urban areas. Small squadrons of light tanks coordinate attacks on villages and towns for maximum killing and psychological effect. The most active and destructive of the pro-regime forces is what has been referred to as shabiha. As professional “enforcers” these criminal gangs have a long history in Syrian trade and commerce, especially in the port areas of Latakia and the other coastal cities.
Until the current dissidence grew dangerous to the Assad regime, the shabiha had been a target of government repression. The uprising against the regime spurred a government operation to enlist these gangs in actions against anti-Assad communities. By using these now Alawite-led teams as killing squads, the Assad security chiefs sought to be able to create the appearance of local internal civilian political conflict rather than acknowledge the brutal coordinated massacre of thousands of innocent civilians that actually occurred.
Invading Syria would require a massive ground and air assault. Counting on large numbers of the military to defect is wishful thinking. The idea that the issues involved are purely a Shia-Sunni division ignores the fact that a large portion of the Syrian Ba’ath Party is made up of very satisfied Sunnis well connected in the Assad family regime. It is all very much in the self-destructive pattern of Middle Eastern history. The battlefields are ancient even if the battles are contemporary.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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John786| 6.15.12 @ 7:03AM
The situation Syria is complex on some levels. However, the clear direction is the fall of the Assad regime. FSA urgently needs a few of the high ranking alawite generals to switch sides. This would be wrapped up in a few months. For Islam Syria is politically infinitely more important than the Gulf region. Its liberation would be the dawn of a new beginning for Arab civilisation.
Alice Moore| 6.15.12 @ 8:06AM
The US should not intervene. Assad, as bad as he is, is infinitely better than what would follow.
Christians and Jews have relative freedom of religion in Syria. Assad's successor would not grant that freedom.
Brooksifier | 6.15.12 @ 4:11PM
Don't know about Syria or Egypt, however I'm glad Khaddafi is gone; he said he would show "no mercy" to his "greasy rat", "drug-fueled mice" opponents. If it takes a pact with the Devil to drive out Satan, so be it.
Occam's Tool| 6.15.12 @ 3:05PM
"Islam" and "Civilization" are antonyms.
Personally, I think the battle will go on for a decade or so. I certainly hope so. Couldn't happen to a nicer group of people.
Occam's Tool| 6.15.12 @ 3:08PM
Of course, Iran wouldn't be able to use those WMDs that Syria got from Iraq if its Capital, Teheran, was made Islamic revolution green---trinitite green.
I really don't like people who threaten my kids.
Brooksifier | 6.16.12 @ 2:36PM
"I really don't like people who threaten my kids."
Your kids are not the only kids in the world, and the world would continue if they were to cease existing.
Don't think too much of your genes, that's conceit; conceit is a sin-- so repent of your sin.
Alej| 6.17.12 @ 8:29AM
Brooksifier | 6.16.12 @ 2:36PM
"I really don't like people who threaten my kids."
Your kids are not the only kids in the world, and the world would continue if they were to cease existing.
Don't think too much of your genes, that's conceit; conceit is a sin-- so repent of your sin.
************************************
Profound riposte, Encinom.
Aristocat| 6.15.12 @ 7:57AM
Syrian government is fighting for its life. It got the message from what happened to Khadafi and Mubarak.
JimH| 6.15.12 @ 8:13AM
A cogent analysis by David P. Goldman; http://pjmedia.com/spengler/20.....epage=true
I found the link at Jerry Pournelle’s Chaos Manor http://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/
Harry the Horrible| 6.15.12 @ 9:06AM
I think we need to stay out.
If we have to help anybody it should be Assad - he's just a bloodthirsty, corrupt, secular dictator of the Ba'athist type. Besides, we own him for not being an ass during Gulf Wars 1 and 2.
Replacing him with a bloodthirsty, corrupt, theocratic Islamic "Republic" would the height of idiocy.
CJW| 6.15.12 @ 11:15AM
Another Sunni v. Shia war brought to us the religion of peace.
Sean| 6.15.12 @ 11:23AM
The rebels are also against the Christians there. Leave it to the USA to support the anti Christian factions like we did in Iraq.
Stuart Koehl| 6.15.12 @ 12:08PM
If the U.S. does not intend to intervene, the only strategically prudent decision would be allowing Assad to do whatever is necessary to suppress the rebellion, for the only thing worse than continued Ba'athist rule would be a prolonged period of anarchy into which Iran would likely poke its fingers.
This would, of course, mean standing by while Baby Assad rediscovers Papa Assad's "Hama Rules".
For those who don't know the Hama Rules, look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hama_massacre
See also my article from a while back: http://www.weeklystandard.com/.....asp?page=3
CJW| 6.15.12 @ 12:27PM
We should not intervene.
We will get bogged down in another Iraq nation building fiasco for ten years and would eventually declare defeat and withdraw, as did Obama.
If we are to intervene, then there should be a debate in Congress to approve and declare war. But declare war upon whom? Send a drone for Assad? Or declare war on Syria?
Stuart Koehl| 6.15.12 @ 7:33PM
So, if we don't intervene, are you willing to allow Assad to use whatever force he deems necessary to end the rebellion, for the reasons I outlined above.
Do try to think like a strategist when you answer.
Occam's Tool| 6.15.12 @ 8:56PM
Yes. Israel believes that Assad is less dangerous than the rebels. I couldn't care less what type of force Assad uses, as he is safer for Christians than the rebels.
CJW| 6.16.12 @ 12:21AM
I think as someone who believes in the Constitution, specifically that Congress approves sending our men to war, instead of a pompous "strategist" uising our men as pawns in a game of strategy.
If the Shia want to kill the Sunnis and vice versa, then they will have less time and men to attempt to kill us. Both are our enemy. Let them kill each other.
Alej| 6.17.12 @ 8:31AM
Dmn right... "Kilkenny r.agheads!"
Bob K| 6.16.12 @ 2:04AM
Peter Lee of "Asia Times" has an article there today about the interest Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia have in this Syrian conflict along with a concise history of the past foreign policy mistakes that helped cause this current conflict.
"Russia and China Mull Syria..........and Saudi Arabia."
http://atimes.com/atimes/China/NF16Ad01.html
Worth reading as a reminder that we aren't the only large nation in the world with concerns over Syria. See footnotes 6 and 7 at the end of the article for Russia's and China's take on this issue.
Mistral| 6.15.12 @ 12:42PM
Come on Mr Wittman, The USA has been involved at the grass roots of this rebellious movement for some time now fomenting trouble by arming groups of rebels and eventually the militia factions just as it has done in many other theatres of political agitation, Afghanistan being a prime example during the Soviet occupation. When all is said and done, Hilary Clinton and Mr POTUS have done all they can to foment rebellion in the Near and Middle east by use of agents provocateurs on the ground and by public statements weighted firmly in favour of dissent. This is done under the ambiguous guise of "popular democracy" and "human rights". These are terms generally misunderstood and manipulated consequently by those very same rebellious factions. Libya and Iraq are still suffering under the misapplication of these rather pliable concepts.
This is why Mr Putin has used this as a lever for supporting Mr Assad and he is right too - when you throw your weight behind one side only and see nothing but wrong on the other the outcome is predictable. What is even more hypocritical is to build up dictatorships that are allies and then remove them when it is thought to be no longer politically expedient. This is a game the USA and their European allies love to play.
cicero| 6.15.12 @ 12:52PM
This is merely another typical example of regime change in the Muslim world. It has been going on since 632. If the West stays out, the current occupant of the throne will either be assinated, flee with the national treasure, or defeat those trying to overthrow him. The result will be another regime similar to the current one.
The only reason the West gets involved is because they want the oil to keep flowing. The oil has to keep flowing because there is no other way these regimes can survive. That is their only valuable trade product. They cannot exist by taxing trade routes, as in times past. They have to sell the oil. They also have to allow western companies to produce it, as they are not competent to do so on their own.
We have no business there.
Mistral| 6.15.12 @ 12:54PM
Perhaps, we need to have a more open view of who is resonsible for the murders that occur daily usually blamed on Assadb by a grossly over-biased western media.
Sister Agnes Mariam a catholic Syrian nun has her own testimony as well as others on this topic.
http://lizzie-phelan.blogspot......agnes.html
personally, I am sick and tired of CNN. MSNBC, CBS, BBC and the other state controlled media outlets who daily massage the "truth" to brainwash their gullible public. No wonder POTUS and his supporters in the EU sit back and do nothing but mouth off against the whipping-boys Ahmadinejad and Assad. Before it was Ghaddafi and prior to that it was Saddam Hussein. Meanwhile billions of tax-payers dollars are wasted propping up a doomed and corrupt regime in Kabul. Doesn't anyone in the USA get it yet?
Mistral| 6.15.12 @ 12:58PM
And while we are on the subject - what about the damage to global PR that POTUS and his remote control murders of scores of innocent civilians by drones in the Yemen and Pakistan? No wonder it is a long war and it is getting even longer with such insensitive and immoral long-distance bombing raids that make the west look more like terrorists than the supposed enemy they are seeking out.
Mistral| 6.15.12 @ 2:02PM
Here is another piece of objective evidence that places most great powers on the same plane of deception aided and abetted of course by biased national media and popular gullibility.
http://www.catholicintl.com/in.....t-news/907
Bill X| 6.16.12 @ 10:17AM
Obama wants to replace secular leaders in the middle east with radical muslim leaders. His ultimate goal is the annihilation of Israel.
Ruckweiler| 6.17.12 @ 10:57AM
If Israel disappeared right now the devotees of the "religion of peace" would still be at war with themselves, regardless. Sunni hate Shia who hate Sufi and on and on. Blood feuds that make the Hatfields and McCoys look like a minor skirmish are endemic to the region. Syria is the prime example of this madness. By the way, just how many Palestinians did King Hussein of Jordan kill using his military? Yet another example.
Mistral| 6.20.12 @ 1:42PM
That's it Ruckweiler - they all hate each other - USA would be better placed letting them all get on with it without our help.