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A Further Perspective
Wisconsin Waterloo for Labor?
If so, a huge opportunity for Mitt Romney.
Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker pulled ahead of his Democratic challenger in the recall election scheduled for June 5, according to the Marquette Law School poll last week. It showed Walker beating the Democratic candidate, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, by 7 points.
Democrats maintain that their private polling shows the race to be a dead heat and expect Bill Clinton appearance in Milwaukee last Friday to have rallied the troops.
The entire recall saga has been a true circus with sit-ins and demonstrations in the state capitol and Democratic state senators fleeing the state and hiding out at the now infamous Clock Tower Resort in Rockford, Illinois. Evading their constitutional responsibilities, they aimed to deny their chamber a quorum and block a vote on Walker’s public labor union reforms.
Mayor Barrett won a contested primary beating organized labor’s candidate in a hotly contested race. This is his second try at defeating Governor Walker, to whom he previously lost two years ago.
Walker has mobilized donors nationally in what has become a signature battle over public labor unions and their long-standing control over state and local budgets distorted by overly generous, and unsustainable, pension and health care plans. His most controversial action was to roll back collective bargaining for public employees, a privilege which even federal workers do not have.
The inevitable firestorm in Madison, the state capitol, and a union-led petition drive led to this recall election costing the states millions of dollars.
Fortunately for Governor Walker, Wisconsin’s school districts and local governments have been experiencing the concrete benefits of his labors, e.g., reduced budget outlays and the avoidance of layoffs of teachers and other staff. This has resulted in pretty good karma for the Walker campaign in recent months. Cost savings also resulted due to liberation from a monopoly union insurance carrier with uncompetitive rates.
Over the course of this recall election, and understanding that the labor controversy was not a winner, at least with the dwindling number of undecided voters, the Democrats pivoted to the jobs issues. They saw an opportunity in a statistical downturn in job creation in the Badger state early on. However, even on that issue, newly released data indicate increased job creation and allowed Governor Walker to regain the offense.
Adding insult to Mayor Barrett’s injury, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, his hometown paper, endorsed Governor Walker.
“It’s time to end the bickering and get back to the business of the state,” opined the paper’s editorial. “We’ve had our differences with the governor, but he deserves a chance to complete his term. We recommended him in 2010. We see no reason to change that recommendation. We urge voters to support Walker in the June 5 recall election.”
A consequential development, and a telling indicator that public employee union members are either voting with their pocket books, or presenting symptoms of electoral fatalism, is “a dramatic drop in membership — by more than half for the second-biggest union” in the wake of reforms enacted by Governor Walker and his Republican state legislature, as reported by Douglas Belkin and Kris Maher in the Wall Street Journal.
A new law signed by Walker eliminated involuntary automatic dues collection by the state and resulted in declining membership for the state’s second-largest public-sector union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. Membership “fell to 28,745 in February from 62,818 in March 2011” according to Belkin’s and Maher’s sources. The union declined to comment.
“Much of that decline came from Afscme Council 24, which represents Wisconsin state workers, whose membership plunged by two-thirds to 7,100 from 22,300 last year,” write Belkin and Maher.
Some may have dropped their membership because of their increased costs or contributions to health insurance and pensions necessitated by Walker’s reforms. These were designed to bring state employees more in line with private sector workers. At the very least, this attrition of dispirited or alienated members is evidence of serious trouble within the ranks of the public employee unions.
Given the polls, the cost savings for school districts and local governments, Walker’s awesome fundraising ability (over $30 million raised) and, now, this telling decline in public union membership, one may be forgiven the perception that the 2012 Wisconsin recall election may become labor’s Waterloo or at least its high water mark in the event they defeat Walker. But failure in high-tax, intermittently liberal Wisconsin, would be a huge blow to its old, preferred model of public finance.
Even liberal states such as Rhode Island, New Jersey and Michigan are now implementing labor and budgetary reforms. California and Illinois, on the other hand, unreformed and unrepentant, continue to slide into the abyss of high taxes, debt and bankruptcy.
It remains to be seen if a Walker victory will mean “lights out” for President Obama as claimed by the Republican National Committee, which might be guilty of hyperbole. But a win or even a narrow defeat would certainly present an opportunity for Mitt Romney to put another state in play in the Great Lakes region.
About the Author
G. Tracy Mehan, III served at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the administrations of both Presidents Bush. He is a consultant in Arlington, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at George Mason University School of Law.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (55) | Leave a comment
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Aristocat| 6.4.12 @ 6:43AM
Walker is showing the courage so lacking in the Republican leaders in Wash., DC.
Oldefarte| 6.4.12 @ 10:50AM
Absolutely agree! Walker is doing an outstanding job and is a political model for the rest of the country to follow!!!!
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 4:40PM
Reality is such a vicious Master.
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 5:13PM
Here's the problem. History, and the changing of the Guard.
After WWII, America was the only game in town. Europe, Japan, and China, we're a shambles. If anyone wanted anything, they had to get it here.
Flash FOREWARD to the end of the 20th Century.
Europe, and Japan, back on their feet, became Major Players in the Industrial World, again, and China, with it's Dollar a Day Workforce, became the Go To Guy, if you wanted to get things made on the cheap.
The Bible says: "For everything there is a Season".
The days of Unlimited Union Benefits and Goodies, left the building, a long time ago.
Time has marched on, and it's time to Accept this fact, or be left behind.
It's just that simple.
Gary B| 6.4.12 @ 6:00PM
TLP, good analysis.
The Bruce| 6.5.12 @ 2:00AM
Certainly no argument here.
Occam's Tool| 6.5.12 @ 12:54PM
Don't forget the dead 50 million workers killed by abortion, TLP. That would have changed the dynamic. In short, the Unions are getting hoist by their alliance with the un-American.
Appleby| 6.4.12 @ 6:46AM
Now, following a Walker victory, how cn Romney drop the ball?
Gary B| 6.4.12 @ 7:15AM
Let me count the ways...
Oldefarte| 6.4.12 @ 10:52AM
How is Romney connected with this, since this is strictly a state of Wisconsin issue???????
The Bruce| 6.5.12 @ 2:02AM
I think she was pointing out a Republican's innate ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
McCain, anyone?
Gary B| 6.4.12 @ 7:14AM
Governor Walker is the best Republican politician this country has ever seen. His administration must be devoid of establishment saboteurs. Apparently, the RNC has overlooked Wisconsin. I'm sure they'll rush some "helpers" in there right away.
Oldefarte| 6.4.12 @ 10:54AM
To my knowledge, Republican Party assistance has been provided, in addition to conservative tea party type help. What's your source of information that it has not been thus?????
Gary B| 6.4.12 @ 12:04PM
No source on specific help provided by the RNC. It's just the RNC has proven it considers true blue conservatives to a troublesome curiosity and wishes they would go away. I believe the RNC blackmailed Reagan into accepting Bush as his VP so they could pack the administration with establishment types, which they did.
Von Mises Jr| 6.4.12 @ 7:19AM
- The population of Wisconsin is 5,363,675
- Before reforms, 62,818 public union members represented .0117% of the population. They are the top 1%
- After the reforms, union member ship fell 54%
- Current membership of 28,745 equals .00536% of the population. Now they are the top half of the top 1%
It takes a liberal to believe that 99% of the population of Wisconsin would vote against their own interests raising their own property tax so that teachers can retire at 55 with pensions bigger than the pay from jobs available to them while they still have to work.
That is why you must realize that liberals are not that smart.
mike 3/505| 6.4.12 @ 8:04AM
"That is why you must realize that liberals are not that smart."
Smart enough to have gotten away with it up until now. and even when we win, we can never turn our backs on them, else they'll do it again.
Von Mises Jr| 6.4.12 @ 8:13AM
Americans are optimistic and good natured people. They were assuming that we beat the socialist or falsely believed that intelligent Americans would not fall for Marxism.
But they are also smart enough to know:"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 4:44PM
Are they?
Have you SEEN a T.V. Guide, lately?
Oldefarte| 6.4.12 @ 10:57AM
Mike, Absolutely correct. Liberals have historically used their subversion to propagandize/brainwash for decades sadly. Thanks to the alternative media and now the tea party patriots, things are beginning to turn the way of conservatism gradually, but we've got to seal the deal in November!!!!!!
Peppermint Tea | 6.4.12 @ 9:30AM
I think you meant 0.0117 of the population or 1.17 percent.
Von Mises Jr| 6.4.12 @ 10:17AM
I stand corrected. You are correct Peppermint Tea. I stated it correctly in words as the top 1% and top half of the 1%, but my fraction plus the percentage sign are redundant. Thanks for the catch.
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 10:49AM
Why do I suddenly find myself with a craving for a piece of pi?
Get it?
Al Adab| 6.4.12 @ 12:24PM
Gotta love this stuff. World PI day is 3-14 @1:59 PM. Love it.
More on topic, how many people will the unions and Dems bus in to vote. Don't forget what happened in Nevada with Reid trailing in the polls. They will stop at nothing. Tomorrow will tell the tale and let us hope they fail.
numbatdog| 6.4.12 @ 7:31AM
Ever since Obama was elected in a surge of ill placed optimism, each subsequent election at all levels has proved disastrous for the dems.
Blessed with a very short memory span, they have quickly forgotten the last disaster and doubled down on the very policies which is causing their problems.
This will be no different. 2 weeks after their coming beating in Wisconsin, they will be back full of excuses, having learned nothing and changed nothing from losing yet again.
I suppose we should sometimes be grateful for stupidity.
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 4:56PM
It's not a case of a "Short Memory". It's a case of sheer DOGMA.
They will do whatever is neccessary, and will move "FOREWARD" By Any Means Neccessary.
It doesn't matter if it WORKS, or not. It is all there is, to them. They will Cheat, and Steal, and Do, and Say, whatever they have to, to keep a hold on their Power.
He is "The One We've Been Waiting For". The One they've been waiting for, for 100 Years.
They will NOT go quietly in to the night.
You can count on it.
Pecos Pete| 6.4.12 @ 8:14AM
If the Supreme Court declares ObamaCare unconstitutional (based on the insurance mandate), then how can forced collection of union membership and dues remain constitutional?
Oldefarte| 6.4.12 @ 11:00AM
Hope you're correct, since IMHO labor unions should be entirely outlawed!!!!
PolishKnight| 6.4.12 @ 3:14PM
IMHO, labor unions should be legal with the caveat that they should be voluntary and all workplaces should be right to work. I should not be prohibited from collaborating with a fellow employer to decide to leave the company if the other chooses to do so due to poor labor practices. In theory, this would mean that going to your neighbor and asking them to threaten to cancel their telephone service if you decide to do the same would be illegal...
However... PUBLIC labor unions are a special case since unless telephone service or a company getting "scab" workers or even just shutting down due to operational expenses (such as GM), governments have no such option. A guy was telling me: "The unions have CONTRACTS with the state protecting their pensions.") BS. The state MAKES those contracts and the state can simply legislate them away just as they can raise tax revenues upon an unwilling populace. All public sector union contacts should be declared null and void, including pensions, and the benefits reset according to prevailing standards in the workplace that their leftist policies helped to create. Let them eat our cake.
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 4:58PM
The Bond Holders for GM, and Chrysler had CONTRACTS, and we all know how that turned out.
Quartermaster| 6.4.12 @ 7:10PM
Pensions can not be canceled after the fact. The courts have held that pensions are earned, so that anything accrued up to the date of cancellation would have to be paid.
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 7:15PM
Obviously, you've never heard of Chapter 11.
The Bruce| 6.5.12 @ 2:21AM
It'll be renamed as a "tax." It's that simple. And, as we know, the government currently has no limitation on its ability to tax the individual.
Lullabys Legends and Lies| 6.4.12 @ 8:48AM
One of my "old" Soldiers who's ETS'd (that means he left the Army) texted me yesterday, saying he was going to be voting for Governor Walker on Tuesday. I wrote back to him to tell him that he's made me proud, but the truth is, I was actually surprised to hear this, because I never think any of them listen to me. I always figure that when I'm talking about politics, they just nod their heads, just pretending to listen to me!! But who knows, maybe I get through to them every now and then!! Before I was in the Army, I was a Union member, not that I wanted to be one, but if I wanted the job, I had to be one!! So I have two strikes under my belt with the C.W.A (1101), but I've got no love for the Unions anymore. They take the members money, and then use it in ways, that a high percentage of their members don't agree with, but there's nothing that the members can do about that, and it's obvious that the Union doesn't care what their members think!! This recall election is the beginning of the end, of what's left of Unions in America (if it goes the "right" way), and I say good riddance to them!! Once a long time ago, the Unions were the good guys, who wore the white hats, but the pendulum always swings back the other way, and today, the Unions are the bad guys, who are wearing the black hats, and terrorizing the town. Thank God there's a new Sheriff in Town, Sheriff Walker's gonna clear them out, and take back their stolen goods!! That's one State down, 49 more to go!!
Oldefarte| 6.4.12 @ 11:03AM
Absolutely correct, and THANK YOU FOR YOUR MILITARY SERVICE [belatedly post Memorial Day]!!!!!
Kwan| 6.4.12 @ 8:52AM
I'm surprised that Ministry of Social Justice Commandant Eric Holder is not issuing claims of violation of some obscure federal law by Walker or actually having him arrested as an Enemy of the Revolution.
Petronius| 6.4.12 @ 11:56AM
Holder will simply pull a Californication on Wisconsin. After Walker wins, he'll have a hand picked Federal Judge overturn the "will of the people" Again.
The Bruce| 6.5.12 @ 2:24AM
Perhaps Walker will simply be placed on the ever-evolving "Kill List."
Peppermint Tea | 6.4.12 @ 9:35AM
If you go back to the 1920 election, Calvin Coolidge was chosen as Harding's VP because as Governor he stood up to the Boston public employee union (police) and his speech outlining the responsibilities of public employee unions was reprinted throughout America. While not a dynamic leader, Coolidge was in the right place when Harding died and continued his policies of limited government and letting businesses do the business of America.
Should Romney chose Walker?
Kwan| 6.4.12 @ 10:07AM
"The business of America is business."....Calvin Coolidge. This reflected his position that government should interfere as little as possible with businesses and individuals. In comparison Obama believes that the business of America is "fairness" and "social justice". The current disaster called the ObamaEconomy is the result of this leftist ignorance.
Gary B| 6.4.12 @ 12:11PM
Yes, Romney should choose Walker because Walker could step smoothly into the Oval Office should the need arise. Also, politically, Walker would make conservatives happy and boost their support for hold-your-nose Romney.
Al Adab| 6.4.12 @ 3:50PM
Would a VP candidate Walker deliver WI electoral votes to the GOP or would he cost the GOP electoral votes of FL or PA or some such state in play?
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 5:16PM
Walker is right where he needs to be, thank you very much.
He is much more valuable to this Country, right where he is, now.
Gary B| 6.4.12 @ 6:06PM
TLP, can't really argue with that. I believe the road back to liberty lies with governors. AZ, WI, OK, FL seem to have some courage. Hope it snowballs. Still have some concerns about Perry here in TX.
TLP| 6.4.12 @ 7:18PM
Not to be a nitpicker, but last I looked, Texas was still kicking ass.
I'm just saying.
Quartermaster| 6.4.12 @ 7:14PM
Anyone voting for Mittens because Walker is the running mate is an idiot. The VP is not a policy position, and Mittens and the Libtards will simply ignore the man.
Obadiah Plainman| 6.4.12 @ 11:02AM
As a native of Wisconsin who has been gone from my home state for nearly 20 years, I have been eagerly on the sideline watching this entire affair with rapt interest. Candidly, I've never understood the "progressivism" mentality as it exists in WI. Good people, hard working people, but (as with the DFLers in Minnesota) for some reason keep letting these leftists steal all the air from the room. Walker has demonstrated a mental toughness and tenacity that Boehner and the ruling class sorely lacks. I hope that Walker's perseverence translates into a spinal or testicular transplant for the D.C. crowd, because this same battle of fiscal responsibility is long overdue on a larger scale.
Oldefarte| 6.4.12 @ 11:07AM
Absolutely correct. The sad truth is that probably 90% of these labor unionist in Wisconsin's capitol were carpetbagging invaders from other states who were recruited by the DNC/unions to be there, causing havoc to local/state residents. Hopefully Walker/Wisconsin will kick them all out after this election and tell them GOOD RIDENCE!!!!!!!!
Tom Kyba| 6.4.12 @ 11:57AM
Uh oh, if results like this keep occurring I am going to start believing that there is hope for civilization after all. Please sir I want some more disgraced unions.
cicero| 6.4.12 @ 1:48PM
We must not forget the clear distinction between private sector unions and those in the public sector. In the private sector, we have seen labor unionism decline, because some of the unions have bankrupted their employers. Despite the fact that the same bankruptcy has occurred in the public sector, the union numbers have continued to stay static or increase, because the public bodies have yet to opt for bankruptcy in any great numbers. That day is coming.
The voting public has only two choices: support conservative governors who take thw Wisconsin route; or, wait for either personal or governmental bankrutcy.
Dave Williams| 6.4.12 @ 2:29PM
It's been decades since I pulled an all-nighter, but I'm considering it tomorrow night. Will the United States become a nation of grownups, or will we continue to decline into whiny, selfish takers? The future of this once-great country is ABSOLUTELY in the balance here...and win or lose, SCOTT WALKER FOR PRESIDENT!!
Occam's Tool| 6.5.12 @ 12:56PM
You know, Dave, I miss the all-nighters, too. But I don't think it will be that close, sir.
sickofit5| 6.4.12 @ 9:44PM
800 pound gorilla in the room. Barrett and other dems can't argue about Walker's economics. Their biggest criticism is Walker's alleged heavy handed tactics. Do any of them remember the first two years of Obama's term???
The Bruce| 6.5.12 @ 2:34AM
They have the default position of blaming Bush. Unfortunately, it's a strategy that works -- FDR managed to BS the American people into believing that Hoover's policies were the root cause for all of FDR's failures right up until 1944.
I suppose the only justice we received was that FDR's own political party initiated the Constitutional Amendment limiting the president to two terms.
marque lunettes de soleil | 6.5.12 @ 5:20AM
It remains to be seen if a Walker victory will mean "lights out" for President Obama as claimed by the Republican National Committee, which might be http://www.maillotfr.com/maill.....22_29.html guilty of hyperbole. But a win or even a narrow defeat would certainly present an opportunity for Mitt Romney to put another state in play in the Great Lakes region.