For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey, the
conflict occurring in neighboring Syria has been just what he
needed to emerge as a regional leader. For the first time in a very
long time Turkey is regarded as an acceptable arbitrator among
Middle Eastern Islamic states. Hamas, Hezbollah, Ahmadinejad and
Bashir al Assad, among others, all want him and Turkey as a
friend.
The issue of Turkey’s accession to the European Union (EU) has
arrived at a mutual — and for the moment convenient — impasse.
The fact is France and Germany under Sarkozy and Merkel really
haven’t wanted a dominantly Moslem nation in the EU at all. As
Turkey has grown more politically powerful, that opposition only
has grown. How things will change under the new socialist French
president, Hollande, remains to be seen.
From an economic standpoint Turkey has had a phenomenal GDP
growth rate in the last two years — 8.5 percentr in 2011 and 9
percent in 2010. Unfortunately inflation has been zooming along
this year above 10 percent spurred by inflows of foreign capital
that speculates in the rise and fall of stocks and bonds and the
Turkish banks that deal in them. All in all it’s a heady
environment for a country — and an administration — that can
compare today’s relative stability with an inflation rate of 70
percent ten years ago.
For PM Erdogan personally, Turkey is on the brink of being the
key element in the Middle East’s future. Of particular importance,
say his supporters, is the success he is achieving in combining an
expansion of minority rights — principally for the Kurds — with a
greater recognition of Islamic cultural and religious beliefs. The
authoritarian style that Erdogan exhibits was reinforced by his
strong, nearly overwhelming, third term victory last June. He has
been in power now for ten years and has gained political strength
along the way.
There are now about fifty generals held in prison along with
more than one hundred journalists. The military-controlled secular
government created by Mustapha Kemal Ataturk and reinforced by the
1982 constitution would appear to be stripped of its earlier
predominance. While the theme of growing Turkish democracy is
worthwhile, the practice under Erdogan and his well-organized
Justice and Development party (AKP) has muzzled the secular elites
in favor of Islamic elites.
To become a member of the latter, the first lesson to learn is
never to question the authority and/or preeminence of Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. This has been a slowly growing, but seemingly inexorable,
factor in Erdogan’s leadership. According to Huseyin Celik, the AKP
vice chairman, “…we are preparing a new legal package.” What this
will mean in practice is still open to interpretation, but the
implication is that a new basic document will be formed that limits
the powers of the judiciary to interfere with governmental
decision-making.
With the potential for construction of a new or amended
constitution, Erdogan’s authoritarian manner appears sliding toward
autocracy. Some go as far as to say that this tendency is a
reflection of a desired mystique not unlike that which grew up
around Ataturk himself. Certainly this charge is sounded by the
still energetic Kemalists, who deeply resent their diminished
status.
More important to Erdogan, however, is the sense of power he has
gained as the newly favored intermediary in the Syrian conflict and
as a middleman in the contest of nuclear wills between Iran and the
West. “In the catbird seat” would have to be translated into
Turkish, for that is where Erdogan now sits. From Anatolia to
Georgetown, Erdogan is lauded as the leader of a country that once
again in political and military terms is viewed as the gateway
between East and West. As an increasingly staunch Islamic nation,
Turkey is often mentioned as an example for other countries in the
region — Egypt as the most notable.
Tehran has played its economic card with Ankara by allowing the
Turks to pay for Iranian oil in their own currency. Ankara’s large
oil import bill is thus substantially reduced and the Iranians
prone to buy more Turkish goods. The Saudis, not to be outdone,
have made it clear to Erdogan that if the oil sanctions against
Iran really begin to bite, the Turks can count on their Saudi
“brothers” to fill all their petroleum needs. Meanwhile, Israeli
intelligence is bending over backwards to reestablish its once
close relationship with its Turkish counterpart, and even the
Americans are doing all they can to emphasize the personal
friendship between President Obama and P.M. Erdogan.
Along with being “in the catbird seat” comes the need for
Erdogan to “keep his eye on the prize” while watching out for
becoming “too big for his britches.” There are many other
expressions to remember, however, that might be useful at this
stage of Erdogan’s leadership. What is most important is to
recognize that while he seeks the religious and political ties that
Islam derives from the Middle East, it is the West that will have
the modernization and sophistication that is the future for
Turkey.
