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At Large
Turkey on the Brink of Big Time
Prime Minister Erdogan is relishing his new found power.
For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey, the conflict occurring in neighboring Syria has been just what he needed to emerge as a regional leader. For the first time in a very long time Turkey is regarded as an acceptable arbitrator among Middle Eastern Islamic states. Hamas, Hezbollah, Ahmadinejad and Bashir al Assad, among others, all want him and Turkey as a friend.
The issue of Turkey’s accession to the European Union (EU) has arrived at a mutual — and for the moment convenient — impasse. The fact is France and Germany under Sarkozy and Merkel really haven’t wanted a dominantly Moslem nation in the EU at all. As Turkey has grown more politically powerful, that opposition only has grown. How things will change under the new socialist French president, Hollande, remains to be seen.
From an economic standpoint Turkey has had a phenomenal GDP growth rate in the last two years — 8.5 percentr in 2011 and 9 percent in 2010. Unfortunately inflation has been zooming along this year above 10 percent spurred by inflows of foreign capital that speculates in the rise and fall of stocks and bonds and the Turkish banks that deal in them. All in all it’s a heady environment for a country — and an administration — that can compare today’s relative stability with an inflation rate of 70 percent ten years ago.
For PM Erdogan personally, Turkey is on the brink of being the key element in the Middle East’s future. Of particular importance, say his supporters, is the success he is achieving in combining an expansion of minority rights — principally for the Kurds — with a greater recognition of Islamic cultural and religious beliefs. The authoritarian style that Erdogan exhibits was reinforced by his strong, nearly overwhelming, third term victory last June. He has been in power now for ten years and has gained political strength along the way.
There are now about fifty generals held in prison along with more than one hundred journalists. The military-controlled secular government created by Mustapha Kemal Ataturk and reinforced by the 1982 constitution would appear to be stripped of its earlier predominance. While the theme of growing Turkish democracy is worthwhile, the practice under Erdogan and his well-organized Justice and Development party (AKP) has muzzled the secular elites in favor of Islamic elites.
To become a member of the latter, the first lesson to learn is never to question the authority and/or preeminence of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This has been a slowly growing, but seemingly inexorable, factor in Erdogan’s leadership. According to Huseyin Celik, the AKP vice chairman, “…we are preparing a new legal package.” What this will mean in practice is still open to interpretation, but the implication is that a new basic document will be formed that limits the powers of the judiciary to interfere with governmental decision-making.
With the potential for construction of a new or amended constitution, Erdogan’s authoritarian manner appears sliding toward autocracy. Some go as far as to say that this tendency is a reflection of a desired mystique not unlike that which grew up around Ataturk himself. Certainly this charge is sounded by the still energetic Kemalists, who deeply resent their diminished status.
More important to Erdogan, however, is the sense of power he has gained as the newly favored intermediary in the Syrian conflict and as a middleman in the contest of nuclear wills between Iran and the West. “In the catbird seat” would have to be translated into Turkish, for that is where Erdogan now sits. From Anatolia to Georgetown, Erdogan is lauded as the leader of a country that once again in political and military terms is viewed as the gateway between East and West. As an increasingly staunch Islamic nation, Turkey is often mentioned as an example for other countries in the region — Egypt as the most notable.
Tehran has played its economic card with Ankara by allowing the Turks to pay for Iranian oil in their own currency. Ankara’s large oil import bill is thus substantially reduced and the Iranians prone to buy more Turkish goods. The Saudis, not to be outdone, have made it clear to Erdogan that if the oil sanctions against Iran really begin to bite, the Turks can count on their Saudi “brothers” to fill all their petroleum needs. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence is bending over backwards to reestablish its once close relationship with its Turkish counterpart, and even the Americans are doing all they can to emphasize the personal friendship between President Obama and P.M. Erdogan.
Along with being “in the catbird seat” comes the need for Erdogan to “keep his eye on the prize” while watching out for becoming “too big for his britches.” There are many other expressions to remember, however, that might be useful at this stage of Erdogan’s leadership. What is most important is to recognize that while he seeks the religious and political ties that Islam derives from the Middle East, it is the West that will have the modernization and sophistication that is the future for Turkey.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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Jack in Wi.| 5.10.12 @ 6:27AM
Turkey is a big fish in a sea of minnows. Ataturk was an atheist who surpressed religion. He was also among the modernizer nationalists who ethnically cleansed the Christian minorities out of Turkey. The Armeinians, Greeks, and Asyrians were either murdered ot driven out. They had been in Anatolia for over 3 thousand years. The Muslims, under the Sultan, had allowed these minorities to live there for 500 years. The secular nationalists are nothing to emulate. They ran the country like it was their personal fiefdom, handing down leadship in the officer class. for decades. It was sort of like Mexico under the PRI.
Alan Brooks| 5.10.12 @ 7:17AM
Turkey is part-Asian, IMO more Asian than European; your descendants will have less, they will have more.. will keep writing it till you get it.
.
Too bad- the world wasn't created to make us happy.
RCV| 5.10.12 @ 11:24AM
Ataturk was one of the giants of the twentieth century. He had the foresight to see what Turkey had to do to cast off its crippling Islamic hold on the state and enter the modern world. As a result, Turkey will be a major force to recongize in the coming century -- a major power in the region.
Jack in Wi.| 5.10.12 @ 4:00PM
Ataturk was a butcher. He helped drive out and kill millions of Christians, who had lived under the rule of the Muslim Sultan for 500 years. He tried to make Turkey an atheist country. It didn't work.
TrueBlue | 5.10.12 @ 4:27PM
In this case Jack is right. He may have forced Turkey into becoming more modern, but at what cost? He butchered religious individuals left and right, and now the pendulum is swinging back to the other extreme of a religious dictatorship instead. The likelihood this time however is that they won't be very accomodating toward Christians.
RCV| 5.10.12 @ 5:04PM
Not so. Read Andrew Mango's magnificant 2002 biography, Attaturk:The Biography of the Founder of Modern Turkey. Truly an amazing man.
Tiddly| 5.11.12 @ 2:58AM
Attaturk was an amazing man? How amazing is it to butcher millions, yes MILLIONS of Christians in Anatolia? Yes, that is what Mustafa Kemal "Attaturk" ordered done. Christian men and women, mothers holding infants, children and the elderly, burned to death or shot in their villages, or driven out onto the roads and herded like cattle by mounted Turkish cavalrymen, without food or water, into the Syrian deserts to die en route or at the end? It puts even the Bataan Death March to shame.
Hanged, butchered, eyes gouged out, some even crucified, thrown into rivers to drown by the thousands, the Armenians, Pontic Greeks, and other Christians who had lived in Anatolia since the Byzantine Empire were exterminated by any and every means possible, on Attaturk's orders. "Turkey for the Turks," proclaimed your amazing Attaturk. All Christians or non-Muslems must die.
Read the book "Not Even My Name" by Thea Halo, a woman who lost her entire family in the massacres (her memory of Turks pausing in their butchery of her family to kneel down for prayers toward Mecca says everything you need to know about Islam. She remembers Turkish troops slitting the bellies of pregnant mothers in a game of guessing whether the fetuses were male or female), or "Smyrna 1922: The Destruction of a City" by Majorie Dobkin, about how the beautiful old Christian city was set afire by Kemal, whose troops threw burning gasoline on hundreds of Christians huddled on the seashore trying to escape their Turkish murderers in boats.
Hitler used Attaturk's treatment of Christians as a model for his treatment of the Jews, saying famously, "Who remembers the Armenians?"
Yes, Attaturk was truly an amazing man. And if there is any justice in the universe he is burning in Hell right now.
RCV| 5.11.12 @ 1:43PM
There was indeed a genocide of Armenians by the Turks. But there is little credible evidence that Attaturk ever played any part in the genocide or issued any orders to anyone else.
Indeed, the record reflects the contrary. On November 9, 1918, Kemal published a major editorial in Minber, a Turkish daily newspaper that he had helped to found and finance, which denounced the wartime regime of the Young Turks (Committee of Union and Progress, or CUP) for having attempted genocide against Turkey's Armenian population. When a more self-assertive government came to power in Istanbul in autumn of 1919, Atatürk co-signed the Amasya Protocol. Article I of the protocol declared both the CUP's policies and its ideology as anathema. Article 4 of the same document provided for "the criminal prosecution of the perpetrators of the Armenian deportations as a matter of justice and politics." In a companion but confidential protocol, Atatürk further promised to prosecute those CUP leaders who were principally implicated in the crime of Armenian deportations and massacres and who were being detained by the British in Malta, as soon as they were released from British custody. He also acknowledged to U.S. Major-General James Harbord the mass murder of 800,000 Armenians. In interviews with foreign correspondents he denounced the CUP perpetrators as "rascals who ought to be hanged" for "ruthlessly deporting and massacring" the Armenians.
Afterwards, Ataturk adopted the same amnesia towards the Armenian genocide that the Turkish government has maintained to this day. For that, he does indeed deserve rebuke. But he does not bear responsibility for the genocide itself.
Tiddly| 5.11.12 @ 9:14PM
Every book I have read on the subject, and they are many, point the blame largely at Kemal. Yes, he put up a smokescreen for the countries that were investing or pondering investment in Turkey, claiming he was against it, but in truth he was entirely complicit in the genocide against Christians in Turkey. Much evidence points to his direct orders to carry out the massacres by the Turkish army, which was under his control.
And, as you say, to this day Turkey refuses to admit its genocide, and remains silent on the subject. So does the U.S. Viz: An article from alternet.org:
U.S. Politicians and Scholars Are Helping Turkey Cover up WWI Armenian Genocide.
Denying the Armenian holocaust is illegal in France and Switzerland, but thanks to millions spent by Turkey, it's still covered up in the US.
Academia is one of two major American fronts in Turkey's campaign to kill the memory of the Armenian genocide. The other is Congress.
As the only Muslim-dominated country in a troubled region to call the U.S. and Israel its allies, Turkey wields significant political influence that it uses to prevent the U.S. from joining 22 other nations in officially recognizing the Armenian genocide as a historical fact.
In 1989, the U.S. State Department released archived eyewitness accounts that, according to State Department officials, showed that "thousands and thousands of Armenians, mostly innocent and helpless women and children, were butchered." That same year, a bill commemorating the genocide was introduced in the U.S. Senate.
But Turkey responded by blocking U.S. Navy ships from entering strategically important Turkish waters and by declaring a ban on all U.S. military training operations on Turkish territory. The bill quickly evaporated.
RCV| 5.13.12 @ 3:59PM
I'm not sure what evidence of Kemal's involvement you refer to. The Armenian genocide occurred well before Ataturk came to power, while the Sutanite still ruled the Ottoman empire. Ataturk overthrow the Sultan and abolished the Caliphate several years after the genocide. Please, give me some specifics, because in the several biographies I've read of him, as well as books on the Armenian holocaust, I've not come across any such material.
Oly| 5.10.12 @ 9:33PM
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk was a crypto Sabbati Levi Jew and good friend of D benGourion. A "buthcher" of Christians would be an understatement for that vermin.
However, Erdogan is a political "bisexual."
Israel thinks he is playing along but, time will prove that, he is slowly changing Israel's policy.
Israel thinks Iran is a threat; just wait till Turkey's muslims grab a firm hold of policy...
Steve| 5.10.12 @ 7:24AM
Mr. Wittman,
Do you think Turkey is stable enough presently and going forward that it is safe for an American to purchase real estate in Turkey?
TLP| 5.10.12 @ 8:29AM
Are you really that Stupid?
Alan Brooks| 5.10.12 @ 8:32AM
"Do you think Turkey is stable enough presently and going forward that it is safe for an American to purchase real estate in Turkey?"
Wait till next decade.
Alan Brooks| 5.10.12 @ 8:33AM
..or ask Newt: he can look into his crystal ball for you.
JP| 5.10.12 @ 11:42AM
Turkey also has deep ties with Germany. The Prussians had been courting the Ottomans at least since the times that Berlin recognized their usefullness in being a thwart to both the UK and Russia. Motlke the Elder spent a considerable amount of time as a young staff officer consulting with the Sultan (the Turks lost every battle Moltke observed. Moltke was lucky to get out Turkey alive). In any event, the Turkey tied its European fortunes to Germany, because the British despised them, and the Russians coveted thier territories. After the Nazis, the Turks really didn't have any true friends in Europe.
Turkey will go Wanahbist in the next few decades. Lucky for us, thier birthrates are falling as fast as they're falling in Egypt, Algeria and Tunesia.
RCV| 5.10.12 @ 3:41PM
There isn't a chance in the world that Turkey will "go Wanahbist" (i.e. Wahabbist), ever. You've clearly never been there if you believe that.
Occam's Tool| 5.10.12 @ 4:30PM
Wahabism isn't the only form of Islamic fundamentalism, RCV. I predict a bad moon rising for Turkey and the rest of us.
RCV| 5.10.12 @ 5:01PM
The difference with Turkey is the presence of a very strong portion of the populace, including most of the military, who are vigilant about preserving the secular Turkish state. Although Erdogan has worked to clense the military of such tendencies, it's far too engrained to go easily. Ironically, it was the European powers who pushed Turkey to weaken the military's role as guardians of the secular republic as a condition of joining Europe, and then stiffed them in the end. (The latter was probably the right decision, but the former moves were idiocy.) Erdogan is now pushing the envelope a bit too hard and may be in for a rude awakening soon.
P.Smith| 5.10.12 @ 7:34AM
The rise of Islam will destroy Turkey; Ataturk saw this, and that is why he essentially outlawed it. Turkey is on the edge of a economic collapse because of Erdogan’s flawed economic concepts rooted in sharia law.
An excellent article discussing Turkeys path to ruin is spelled in: Recall Notice for the Turkish Model by Spengler (David P Goldman) in the Asian Times, here is the link:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/M.....0Ak01.html
TLP| 5.10.12 @ 9:10AM
Thank you, P. Smith. We go from Stupid Steve, to someone who actually has his Big Head, on his Shoulders, as opposed to the other guy, with his little head, seemingly doing all of his thinking for him.
Edrogen believes that he can have it, both ways. That he can wear two hats. That he can be both, Secular, and Sharia Compliant. He is the Fox, who gives the Scorpion a ride across the River, on his head.
"They came for the Jews......."
He believes that, if he tolerates them, just a little, they will Eat Him last. Perhaps. But, eventually, he WILL be devoured.
Evidently, he learned nothing from Mubarek.
Does ANYONE ever learn from History?
I'm thinking - NO.
martin j smith| 5.10.12 @ 7:35AM
The current regime is no friend of ours and you can bend over backwards and forwards once you have an autocrat it will be all about Erdogan just like its all about Obama. At some point things will explode.
Herb| 5.10.12 @ 7:59AM
It is for a reason that the land mass which modern Turkey occupies is known as Asia Minor.
Indy| 5.10.12 @ 9:18AM
Erdogan and Obama are pals. Turkey is becoming more friendly towards Iran and Russia, not a good thing, NATO should be concerned.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.co.....r-program/
Vagabond| 5.10.12 @ 9:51AM
I'd trust Turkey about as far as I can throw it.
"C"orruption in Turkey is always present and always the middle name.
(Oh, and "Smile when you're lying!" -- something like that as the national motto)
John786| 5.10.12 @ 11:02AM
Turkey is a growing responsible power in the region. And has played a calming influence in the ME and also within the greater geopolitical framework. It is now committed to ousting Bashar from Syria. And Israel is grovelling to come back into the fold: they must of course fully apologise for the attack against the Turkish humanitarian ship bound for Gaza. Turkey's long view should be compared to the bull in a china shop mentality of US foreign policy: disconnected from any reasonable strategic aims. Aims only possible with massive borrowings but all for naught or minus outcomes. who is the monkey grinder?
Occam's Tool| 5.10.12 @ 5:26PM
Right, Bibi is grovelling, I see this.
Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 5.12.12 @ 12:15PM
God willing Assad with the help of Russia and Iran will defeat the Western and Wahhabist backed Syrian opposition. I pray to God to protect Bashar al Assad and his government especially if the Turks ever invade Syria, because we all know how vicious and bloodthirsty the Turks are. Between them and the Wahhabist opposition in Syria the Syrian Christians, Shia Alawites and Druze would have to fight for their very survival.
Dustoff| 5.10.12 @ 11:08AM
Better than asking your daughters on imporantment matters. Right O-dumber.
Attila The Hun| 5.10.12 @ 11:42AM
The one thing Mr. Wittman got it right Erdoğan is becoming too "big for his britches". No prime minister in the modern Turkish Republic ever fully completed a third term in office. Erdoğan may be seen unchallengeable, but like his predecessors he is overplaying his hand. Turkey's internal problems is much bigger than any of her neighbors. Sooner or latter The problems in Syria and Iraq will spill over into Turkey. When it does all hell will break loose. The Current economic success will not last forever, when it turns south soo is Erdoğan fortunes. The Turks already are feeling of an uncontrollable inflation which is keep rising. In the final analysis, Erdoğan's thirst for absolute power not only will cause his demise soo is the prestige of his country..
Jimbo the Coastie| 5.10.12 @ 1:04PM
Can anyone justifiably explain the arrest of almost the entire military flag officer staff? It smells far more political than anything else & resembles Stalin more than Ataturk. We cannot trust this man.
Richard Baker| 5.10.12 @ 1:53PM
He is also binding Turkey to Islam. Eventually, the Islamic wolf will turn against him. There's a reason Ataturk created a more secular society. He understood the danger of Islam.
POST American| 5.10.12 @ 10:58PM
-----AS we take note of the Socialist--Islamic
world order soft pre-programming in that
very photo -----
AGAIN
one and ALLLLLL ---MUST check out
that RED Ice radio piece on the long term
stealth capstone agendas to take down
their long ago corrupted christian 'churches'
and bring in ---ISLAM as ---the--- religious
component to their NWO.
'Clash of Civilizations' hr 2
RED Ice Radio
(available Yahoo videos)
One and al, by now, must also be catching the
not so low key, and ever more driven
media cues for ----'acclimation'---- to
the notion of that muslim cultural
'fave' ---inter-generational sex etc----.
That RED Ice interview ---IS ESSENTIAL!
GET IT OUT EVERYWHERE! -----FAST!!!!!!!
Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 5.12.12 @ 3:40AM
I like my Greek Orthodox Christian brothers and sisters and our Armenian Christian cousins do not trust the Turks.
I cannot see the rise of the Turkish state as a regional power as being a good thing and their influence amongst the Syrian opposition could end up being as tragic to Syrian Christians, Shia Alawites and Druze as was the expulsion and genocide that the Turks perpetrated against the Greeks, Armenians and Assyrians not so long ago.
Boudoir Photography | 5.17.12 @ 12:10PM
Love Turkey and the Turkish people. From what I hear they are not all fully supportive of their Prime Minister though.