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The Book on Phyllis Schlafly
November 17, 2005 | 0 comments
A Further Perspective
Europe’s Crisis: A Roadmap From the Past
Hayek and Röpke saw it all coming — and it could still happen here.
These are rough days for the European Union (EU). What began as a sovereign debt crisis has now metastasized into a political debacle for the leaders left holding the bag. Nicolas Sarkozy’s electoral defeat in France, the ouster of an austerity-minded government in Greece; and last month’s collapse of the governing coalition in the Netherlands are all symptoms of a deeper problem for Europe: bloated governments are hard to tame, even when there is no money left to pay for them.
This is bad news for Europe. But the political tumult on the continent is also a stunning vindication of the post-War thinkers who anticipated this outcome. These individuals, men like Friedrich von Hayek and Wilhelm Röpke, would become founding intellectual fathers behind the modern conservative movement in Europe and the United States. Even today, their foresight provides a defining roadmap for navigating away from Europe’s current crisis and offers a chilling warning to the United States about repeating the same mistakes.
Much like the debt crisis of our own time, the dimensions of Europe’s post-War reconstruction were staggering. Only instead of ruined factories and decimated cities, today’s contemporary European leaders must contend with bombed out credit ratings and the herculean task of reordering the continent’s dysfunctional economies. Then, as now, the basic policy debate centered on the state’s role as guarantor of public prosperity and welfare; and perhaps more importantly, how to finance it.
Wading into this dispute, Hayek, Röpke and other post-War conservatives did not deny the need for basic social insurance schemes. But they foresaw that the promises of an ever-expanding welfare state would be maintained at heavy costs: both in taxation and freedom. With stunning prescience, they warned that unless state services were limited to basic forms of social insurance, the financial basis for Europe’s economic order would become structurally unsound and dangerously unmanageable. Government largesse would invariably grow and require increased revenue from taxes or heavy borrowing against future economic growth. As citizens relied on the state to protect them from the uncertainties of life, they would become dependent on it; but woe to politicians who would try to wean voters off of the state.
This is an uncannily close portrait of Europe as it exists today. From angry street protests in Greece and Romania, to plaintive calls for a return to government stimulus spending by France’s president-elect François Holland and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, resistance to budget austerity is as predictable as it is strident. While this opposition does not alter the EU’s underlying financial problems, it could affect the political outcomes of the crisis. Going forward, the EU faces four potential scenarios, some of which could occur in combination:
Voluntary Austerity: Europe’s over-burdened governments could fully commit to the rationale and rigors of sustainable budgets. Already, the EU’s Baltic economies (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have demonstrated that deep cuts to state spending are possible. Such an approach, however, requires strong leadership and an understanding of what’s at stake by the voting public. In this case, Baltic memories of economic chaos during the late 1980s and early 1990s helped to catalyze decisive action.
Imposed Austerity: External actors (e.g., Germany or the EU) could alter national spending habits by leveraging treaty or market forces. As recently as January, trading houses savaged Hungary’s currency and imposed crushing interest rates on government debt until officials agreed to a credible reform agenda. By enacting its new Fiscal Treaty, the EU hopes to avoid a similar pummeling of Euro-zone economies. But in binding its members to budgetary prudence, the EU has triggered virulent push back in France, Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and the Netherlands.
Repudiation: Individual states could repudiate their treaty and debt obligations but incur economic isolation and impoverishment. Significantly, this approach would accelerate the emergence of a “two tiered” Europe as the gap between healthy and unhealthy Euro-zone economies widens. EU decision-making would be concentrated into the hands of solvent countries, while weaker economies could invite aggressive speculative pressure against the Euro. Faced with this scenario, the common currency is unlikely to survive in its current form.
Repugnant Replacements: Paralyzed by inaction, Europe’s current governments could be replaced by new leaders who are antagonistic to trans-Atlantic norms and fiscal necessity. In recent months, non-mainstream parties in Austria (Freedom Party), France (National Front), Greece (Golden Dawn), Hungary (Jobbik), and the Netherlands (Freedom Party) have reaped an alarming windfall of voter support. And even if these parties are unable to translate a burst of popularity into majority rule, their role as political kingmakers in wobbly parliamentary coalitions could inflict lasting damage on fundamental values like open borders, free trade, free markets, and inclusive societies.
As the EU gropes for a way out of its financial malaise, continental leaders would benefit by heeding the advice of thinkers like Hayek and Röpke. Faced with Europe’s current economic prospects, both men would be skeptical of centralized or collectivist approaches to spurring growth, preferring instead to stimulate entrepreneurialism through tax incentives and greater economic freedom. While Hayek might argue against applying a Keynesian balm for Europe’s ills, Röpke was more willing to prescribe public sector spending during a crisis. Even so, he warned that such a policy should be deployed only with great caution and for brief periods.
Given the current levels of European indebtedness, it is difficult to imagine either Hayek or Röpke endorsing the rising counter-argument in France and Greece that public debt got us into this and even more debt will get us out. This would reinforce the rationale behind “voluntary austerity” and encourage national governments to fearlessly prune decades of overgrowth in public sector spending. For the United States, the insight of Hayek and Röpke highlights the need for cutting our own runaway deficits. Viewing Europe’s troubles, we can glimpse how our own story is likely to end if Congress cannot bridle federal spending. In this event, the cost of inaction would be counted not only in dollars and cents but in the unwanted decline of America’s capacity for global leadership.
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oldfart| 5.10.12 @ 6:46AM
The EU appears to lack the will and the means to do anything significant.
It would also appear that Britain made the right call by not joining the Euro. Will the House of Windsor now step into the fray to avoid total chaos, which is where the current Government of PM Cameron is headed.
Now it appears that the only major European leader with a set of 'lobes' is Merkel. The technocrats at Brussels would, by their current actions, appear to be like Captain Smith and go town with the Titanic rather than have to face the consequences of inaction. And who will pickup the pieces? I am sure President Putin will be more than happy to help.
The grand experiment of a European Union is about to collapse.
Alan Brooks| 5.10.12 @ 7:13AM
You will just have to tolerate that your grandkids will have less and Asia's grandkids wuill have more.
Nothing you can do short of war. What, you are going to take on China??
oldfart| 5.10.12 @ 7:41AM
Your first sentence is very accurate. The USA, if we are to survive financially, will have to lower the standard of living. One car, not three in the driveway, multi-generational living in one house, less mobility and fewer fixations with the latest cell phone technology than currently exists.
Your second and third sentences are non sequitur. I would be interested you expanding how the USA going to war with China relates to the fiscal issues in the EU?
Richard Ryan| 5.10.12 @ 8:04AM
Not really Brooks. We will only have to tolerate these things if Democrats keep having a say.
Alan Brooks| 5.10.12 @ 8:30AM
Wrong, either party, save if you want to trust libertarians (not likely!).
"Your second and third sentences are non sequitur. I would be interested you expanding how the USA going to war with China relates to the fiscal issues in the EU?"
my first sentence relates to that, America does not want to tighten its belt, so you WOULD have to fight China to raise the US up-- at least that is the way it has been done in the past. And you know very well we are in the same boat with Europe. C'mon, we whites are facing diminished expectations because there is reason-- at this time-- for expecting less. You yourself admitted it by writing "if we are to survive financially, will have to lower the standard of living. One car, not three in the driveway, multi-generational living in one house, less mobility and fewer fixations with the latest cell phone technology than currently exists.";
whereas China does what it wants. Argue with Chinese on that one, see where it gets you.
oldfart| 5.10.12 @ 8:44AM
From what you are saying it appears (please comment if I am wrong) that you see nothing but a doomsday scenario. I don’t believe in a no-win-situation. There are always real life solutions to real world problems, IF people are willing to adapt to new situations. IF we are so self-absorbed in the culture of ME then what you appear to be saying, the dissolution of the USA as was given to us by our parents may come to pass. But I don’t see that. I still see a very strong country that is capable of rising to a crisis.
With the current situation – if NOT Romney – then who is capable of winning a national election and sending the Pretender-In-Chief packing?
old white guy| 5.10.12 @ 10:26AM
i see the dissolution of many countries. everyone is living on borrowed money. the government is borrowing money to pay government employees and this can't continue. too many people live off the taxpayer teat and the ability to do so is no longer supported.
Alan Brooks| 5.10.12 @ 10:53AM
A half truth.
Probably what will happen is the currency will eventually be worthless and a new currency will take its place; some will take a bath, some will not.
For some people doomsday is their fate.
All the men who jumped out of buildings in Oct. 1929 got their doomsday-- but some people did okay and some did just fine thank you very much. They were crying crocodile tears for the jumpers.
Some gotta win, some gotta lose
Good time Charlie gassed the Jews
Tim the Enchanter| 5.10.12 @ 1:27PM
Doggone it, one of you let Brooks out AGAIN, and didn't put him back! Be more careful!
oldfart| 5.10.12 @ 8:47AM
Oh - I got grass to cut - CU later.
Pecos Pete| 5.10.12 @ 7:17AM
The USA ain't far behind Europe with our rush to spend more on social programs. In the end, we will experience hyper-inflation to pay off our nation's debt, else an emergency executive order by a president will nationalize major industries ... like car companies, huh? Or medical services ... yep.
TLP| 5.10.12 @ 9:41AM
Lest, nobody heard. The lying little puke - Jay Carney - came out after the New French Socialist victory, and, more or less, DEMANDED that Pepè le Pew NOT IMPLEMENT any of his Socialist Programs of Raising Taxes, Going after the Rich - to the tune of a 70% Tax Rate - Increasing Government Spending, and dragging out the inevitable "Panacea" of any Far Left Socialist worth his salt - KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS - until after our Elections in November.
Gee. I wonder why the little Nazi looking twerp, was given those orders?
Could it be, that his Master would rather not have Americans witness the inevitable COLLAPSE of France, at the hands of Everything that this Ccksckr has in store for US?
What's the matter?
I thought they WANTED us to be like Europe.
They just don't want us to know what's going on, until it's too late.
Al Adab| 5.10.12 @ 11:17AM
The sad thing here is that we have the books and can view the history of social engineering and welfare economies, yet still so many "true believers" want to impose the same on what was the worlds strongest and freest economy and society.
Can we not learn from what we know and avoid the pitfalls of this type of government? We have an administration dedicated to creating a European type economy here. Should we not read and study and remove this thinking from our midst?
CarlH| 5.10.12 @ 12:02PM
The left never let facts stand in their way. They lie about the facts or just disregard them. A lot of socialism is about having access to government corruption and the riches that it brings to those who run the big government. Big government is really big corrupt government. The more power the government has the more that power is worth and can be sold by government officials to their friends.
Appleby| 5.10.12 @ 6:37PM
No one ever learns from history. Everyone thinks that he or she is immune to what other people have suffered and that even if Doom is the fate of the world, it will not touch them personally.
They think the answers are all in the back of the book.
Ardyth| 5.11.12 @ 11:05AM
I agree with Al Adad's call for reading and study, I do not agree with his wish to "remove the thinking".
The European economy is very new. Too new in fact for us to decide if it should be blamed for the current cyclical recession in which the world finds itself.
If it is time to simply stop throwing good money after bad, or if the EU needs to improve its formula is a decision of much gravity and consequence.
martin j smith| 5.10.12 @ 7:28AM
I saw the Military Chanel the other day in their description of the British public mood just after the Victory in WWII brings to mind current circumstances across the pond and here as well. The British were tired of sacrifice and wanted immediate help with such basics as food and housing etc and guess what they Voted out Churchill and voted in Labor the very government that nearly destroyed their nation to begin with.
To be sure these were dire circumstances and the nation was bare survived. The lesson here is when people are desperate they will go for whatever political forces makes promises that meets their fantasies and desires. Obama has done great damage to our nation's economy but fixing it will require surgical skill so to speak not a sledge hammer. The sledge hammer approach will assure further disaster.
John Navratil| 5.10.12 @ 11:14AM
martin j smith,
And a fat lot of good it did them. When my mother left London for the U.S. in October, 1952, rationing was still in effect.
sinanju| 5.10.12 @ 10:28PM
Yep, I've read that by the early 1950's the German standard of living was superior to that of the brits. Postwar rationing continued till 1954. Wiki says government controls on milk prices meant the UK had to make do with "government cheddar" until well into the 1980's.
Price control, gotta love 'em.
Derek Leaberry| 5.10.12 @ 7:43AM
As long as the "conservative" establishments of America and Europe continue to push open borders and demographic revolution, true conservatives will have no other choice than to vote for the parties which the arrogant and obtuse authors of this article call "repugnant replacements."
tsd| 5.10.12 @ 7:47AM
Great article, we are still short on the leadership to do the right thing for any long term improvements. We all know the problem, how to get the people on the street to buy in and do what is right... that is the million dollar question.
Shadow| 5.10.12 @ 8:28AM
Yes but they won't "buy in" as long as they are "bought out" by entitlements. When things are so bad there is no choice, this will change. It's going to be ugly getting there, but we will.
PattyMor| 5.10.12 @ 8:39AM
Prosperity brings on its own problems. But, the Euros have benefited from America's military protections, so they don't fund much of a military. This was demonstrated in the Libya "campaign". A couple of air planes does not make you have an "air force".
Nazism (National Socialists), communism, marxism are all born in Euroland. And the votes demonstrated that these are deeply held beliefs among the citizens. So the Euros have voted to deny reality and continue the spending. This doesn't end well. It never does. Expect big upheals as these countries convulse upon a giant loads of debt.
Indy| 5.10.12 @ 9:06AM
Nigel speaks the truth, the Titanic has now hit the iceberg
http://www.nationalreview.com/.....ack-fowler
We are headed down that path, the House approved the extension of the ExIm Bank, they won't cut anything.
TotallyJaded| 5.10.12 @ 6:56PM
Indy, you have made the first mention of the Ex-IM bank vote I've seen here at TAS. Wonder why it wasn't in the TAS main articles.....so how's them there 2010 votes workin' out for y'all?
Indy| 5.10.12 @ 9:56PM
The media is falling for the many distractions, I wonder what else is passing?
Von Mises Jr| 5.10.12 @ 9:13AM
Ludwig Von Mises and F.A. Hayek were from the Austrian School of Economics. Ropke advocated "Social Market Economy" more in the fashion of Keynes.
That aside, all were Professors of Economics in Europe with Von Mises born in 1881 and the other two born in 1899. They experienced the Soviet Revolution and the rise of Nazi Germany. Mises and Hayek fled Hitler's Nazi Germany for their lives. They were some of the most brilliant men of their age and recent history. But they had also seen socialism firsthand.
Nazi Germany was founded on Nationalism (class/ethnic warfare), ethnic cleansing, universal health care, totalitarianism and propaganda. Sort of like the Obama White House.
The author writes a good article, but he leaves out the most important and most likely result: WAR. Mises writes that free-markets and trade fosters good relations among neighbors and nations. If you are an efficient economy and your neighbors are also efficient; and each produces different goods, then everyone benefits by the division of labor and free trade.
But in Hayek's "Socialism and War," he wrote many essays explaining why totalitarian regimes must seek war. Due to the inefficiency of their markets that cause poverty and want, they need a "Bokonon" foil. But most importantly, war brings and reinforces central planning. This is their ultimate goal, so they mobilize for war and then argue that since planning worked so well during war, that they should have planning during peacetime.
Hence you have permanent dictatorial rule with the socialist enjoying ruling class status. And we get USSR's starvation and collapse, Nazi’s WWII or Obama's economy. If history repeats itself, Obamanomics will bring suppression, aggression and war in the end.
Al Adab| 5.10.12 @ 11:19AM
Jr:
Your namesake warned us of the results of these programs. Have we learned nothing from Europes failures? Why is our current administration so intent on following those same failed policies? The answer can only be that they seek the continuation of their own power regardless of consequences.
Von Mises Jr| 5.10.12 @ 1:06PM
So did Burke and Tocqueville. Socialist are either too stupid to understand, or they are too greedy for power to care.
Al Adab| 5.10.12 @ 1:20PM
To them it is a religion, a Faith, which must not let human nature get in its way. These self-annointed (to borrow from Dr. Sowell) elites believe they know what is best for all us ignorant plebs. Or, if I were more cynical, I would say they intend to perpetuate their own power and profit.
Johnimo| 5.10.12 @ 11:57PM
The worst "war" that occurs is between the various interests in a state run economy. We see that now, for instance, in California where the school teachers have suddenly become big opponents of the high speed rail. It'll take money from education .... so there against it for that reason only.
blackwatch| 5.14.12 @ 10:56PM
wholesale theft is occurring at all levels in California government.
For example, the superintendent in my local K to 8th grade school district has an annual salary of $192,000++++ benefits galore.
there are three middle schools and nine elementary schools in this district.
he does such a great job, he's worth it say all the slack jawed rube voters who keep electing the union shills to the school board.
it's disgusting.
Bob K.| 5.10.12 @ 9:59AM
Kipling put it all into poetry in 1919 in his "Gods of the Copybook Headings."
Here it is and I think that it is about as effective a response to socialism and undisciplined living as you will find anywhere!
http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_copybook.htm
Tim the Enchanter| 5.10.12 @ 1:36PM
Excellent. Poetry as history. Loved it.
David Naas| 5.10.12 @ 2:37PM
Kipling understood, as the fable of the beehive (forgot the title) demonstrated. When we abandon our institutions in the name of "progress", the end is inevitably the same.
Perhaps the ultimate traditionalist prescription is the cliche Kipling didn't use, "Don't throw out the baby with the bathwater."
Appleby| 5.10.12 @ 6:39PM
Thus one of the benefits of a classical education...one knows there is nothing new under the sun and can quote poetry to prove it.
Paul| 5.10.12 @ 11:02AM
"Fundmental values like open borders and free trade" These are fundamental values for the elites. The rest of us want nothing to do with free tared and and open borders. Particularly open borders that have flooded our nation with hordes of illaterate third world migrants who come here and work for a little whiole and then go on the dole. Why do these morons think California is in such terrible shape? It's not just the public employee unions, its the costs of education, healthcare. and welfare for all of that staes illegal population. Our elites are morons who live in a parallel universe.
David Naas| 5.10.12 @ 2:47PM
Beg to differ, but we WISH they were in a parallel universe -- then they wouldn't bother THIS one.
Skillet| 5.15.12 @ 1:41PM
I don't think the problem is with the free exchange of goods and services. Trade means you get something in return. I think many in this country (including some here illegally) have misunderstood "free" trade to mean they get things like education, healthcare and welfare for "free".
JA| 5.10.12 @ 2:15PM
The Euro and the present mess Europe is in, as well as the mess in Japan and the USA was all brought to you courtesy of the financial and economic wizards from MIT, Harvard, Columbia, Princeton, Oxford, Cambridge, Insead, etc.
In promulgating economic theories that are immune to controlled experiments, and thus unprovable, they have rendered the USA, much of Europe and Japan bankrupt. The real victims, as usual, are the working stiffs. The financial and economic wizards, along with their partners in crime - liberal progressives, socialists and communists - are still taking in big salaries in govt. and academic jobs; immune and exempt from the consequences of the policies they foist on us all.
And people still listen to these academic economists; they are frauds, charlatans and phonies.
David Naas| 5.10.12 @ 2:47PM
As a "working stiff", I concur.
David Naas| 5.10.12 @ 2:45PM
Ahh, but Hayek and Roepke (not to mention Burke) were not forced to march in lockstep by the self-appointed guardians of conservative orthodoxy -- the talking heads on tv. We used to enjoy the writings of intelligent and learned folk, now we suffer from the babblings of the 30-second instant Pundits who keep ratcheting up rhetoric the same way (and for the same reason) a drug-dealer will crank up dosage -- the old adrenalin high just needs more raw sewage injected in the bloodstream to get an effect.
Thanks for the article, it reminds me just how far astray we've gone from a traditionalist and intellectual conservatism.
Not to mention the most traditional institution of all -- the Church -- which Europe abandoned sometime in the XXth century, for which consequences, see the nightly news.
Richard Baker| 5.10.12 @ 4:03PM
What's next? A Hitler arising who promises to bring back national dignity and pride in your country or the like? This time there won't be a Marshall plan to save Europe. James Garner had a line in the movie "The Americanization of Emily" where he tells Julie Andrews that Europe was a going brothel long before we got involved. Still true and a reminder that the Europeans have been doing this sort of nonsense before.
garvan kuskey | 5.10.12 @ 4:49PM
Most would credit the Marshall Plan for Germany's amazing rise from the ashes of WWII. It helped, but far more important was the almost-unrestrained laissez-faire market chancellor Konrad Adenauer was allowed to put in place in 1948.
POST American| 5.10.12 @ 10:20PM
----And the long term plan?
"---They are working on, they're
going to bring in, a Socialist World Order
with corporate fascism at the top
---and ISLAM as its religion.
---MARK MY WORDS!"
-Informed radio online
You REALLY do have to CHECK OUT:
'Clash of Civilizations' hr 2
RED Ice Radio interview with
Jay Weidner
Lays it ALLLLLLL out.
SO, indeed, Christianity, and even
our long Rockefeller rotted
and subverted 'churches' are, one day,
in the not too distant 'FEW---chore'
to be put away for good.
You can ALMOST hear the yuppy-guppies
even now:
"--Well, maybe that's a GOOD thing---"
CHECK IT OUT! ------n' GET IT OUT!
Un-Economics| 5.11.12 @ 10:14PM
A daring new website (rescuingeconomics.wordpress.com) suggests that there has never been a sound school of economics. In turn it attempts to build a model which suggests only rigid domestic wages in a closed economy is the basis of a sound school of economics. This model is then extended to the Euro as a test case of its logic. In short, though the Euro is a common currency among European nations it lacks the critical "domestic" aspect in terms of a common language. Surprisingly this is a critical and subtle point to consider. In a closed economy workers who are displaced by productivity gains in an industry sector, are able to move to new sectors where the consumer savings are spent. In a case like Europe, consider the failure of the mechanism. Say Germany's industry "X" is superior to the other EU country's "X" industry. The unemployed workers are not able to move in the replacement sectors in Germany, since they do not speak the language. Euro's problems are not social problems, but a model build on the flawed theories of neoclassical price and wage flexbility (i.e. the basis of free trade theory ). In short, the Euro amounts to a form of free trade with the same final consequences as for the US, economic ruin. Karl Marx saw this clearly...he proposed the fastest way to destroy capitalism was with free trade. Daniel Wesbster argued that the primary reason we have the US Constitution was to stop free trade with Britain as a result of the free trade induced economic chaos unleashed under the Articles of Confederation which did not have the power to lay tariffs. Both men were right. Time to relearn out history.
Barn Cat| 5.11.12 @ 10:21PM
Congress can't reign in spending. It's not just the $1.3 trillion deficit for this year but also the additional $5.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities. We're just like Greece. Only bigger. And only a year or two behind.
POST American| 5.12.12 @ 1:52AM
"Understand, part of the aid agreements
between England and the US after WWII
(actually Globalist agreements and understanding
already long agreed upon) ---was that Britain
would slowly, but dligently DE--industrialize
itself, dissolve its culture, and merge with
Europe. ---That agenda has NOW moved
to the US."
-Informed Radio online
BEHOLD -----Britain 2012!
Just a little REALITY CHECK for those
out there who may, incredible though
it may seem to some others, believe things
are ---'just happening'.
And BTW ---
Back to that recent Joel Skousen interview
on Alex Jones where he went into a gathering
'oddness' around intentional US military
blindsiding of the Russian and RED Chinese
military build ups.
There are some who diss the whole idea
of there being a Globalist--agenda 'friendly
exchange over, say, a North Korean invasion.
"China's NOT that way --they're NOT imperialist"
"---Russia and RED China could NEVER
get along to fight together---NEVER happen."
Well, IN FACT, in Korea ---they ALREADY
did. And thanks to Globalist Dean Rusk and the
dismissal of MacArthur during what was
MacArthur's FINEST hour ---it was very close to
being a 'winning match'.
"Understand, China is NOT the China
it once was. MAO changed ALLLL that,
even before and beyond their 'miracle'.
RED China today isn't so much a
communist state ----as an aggressively
'funk--shun--ALL' National Socialist
state."
-Informed Radio online
BTW ----DO check out those leaked documents
on 'RE-Education Camps' and those latest
breakthroughs in 'neutralization' shot
bio----tech.
KEEP telling yourselves 'It couldn't happen
here" --as you recall your 'fave' 90's Show'
EYE--CON Rosanne wearing a MAO jacket
and calling for the same in New York.
Just another little REALITY CHECK on this,
the 'mysteriously overlooked' 60th Anniversary
of the 'agenda unfriendly'
-------------------KOREAN WAR----------------------.
(SAVE THIS POST ---HARD COPY!)
FeFe| 5.14.12 @ 9:22AM
Gentlemen, you are no Churchill. You must reach the American people beyond their government. The "hideous strength of the status quo" GHWBush policy mavens are writing checks the American people are no longer willing to cash. Take heed.