“Hugo Chavez has the constitution of a horse,” said one
Venezuelan official medical spokesman. If that’s true, the horse is
limping in the paddock. Flying back and forth from Caracas to
Havana, Chavez already has had three operations (one exploratory)
and accompanying radiation treatments. He’s had two cancerous
tumors removed — one reportedly the size of a baseball — from
what has been described as “the pelvic area.” He’s not in the shape
necessary to wage a vigorous campaign for his presidential
reelection scheduled for this October. It would seem the Chavez era
is in its final phase.
While some would like to tie the disastrous civil security
situation of robbery, drug trafficking, murder and kidnapping to
Hugo Chavez’s absence from the scene of presidential authority,
sources in the K&R (kidnapping and ransom) aspects of
international insurance doubt that political connection. To them
it’s just business as usual in Venezuela. The Venezuelan law
enforcement community dashes from one high profile case to another
as diplomats and wealthy businessmen are targeted.
The reality is that even when Chavez was healthy, crime in
Venezuela was endemic. The so-called “express kidnappings” in the
past several years have become a trademark of criminal life in the
cities as apparently well-to-do citizens are snatched off the
streets. The victims are driven to appropriate bank cash machines
and the money thus obtained becomes the instant ransom. Teams of
bodyguards follow major businessmen and entertainment personalities
everywhere, but it doesn’t stop “the game.”
The environment of civil insecurity, however, has become so bad
since Chavez’s indisposition that his loyalists now charge his
opponents with inflating statistics and manufacturing crime stories
in order to aid their own election prospects. Naturally this is
denied, but it is obvious that anti-Chavez forces enjoy the timing
of any increased breakdown of law and order.
The first operation for the removal of Chavez’s tumor was
treated as an unfortunate but not atypical health problem for a man
of his age. The second operation of a smaller, but still cancerous,
tumor carries an entirely different political tone. That there has
been a blackout on any discussion of the exact nature of the cancer
— other than to say it was in the pelvic region — has only
encouraged speculation. Advanced prostate cancer is the current
leader of the speculative list. It certainly does not look
optimistic for Chavez’s political, or any other, future.
Hugo Chavez has several close friends from his Army days on whom
he counts for his regime’s political and physical protection. They
find themselves in the unenviable position of having to fill in
while the boss is hors de combat. Chavez had done an
effective job of instructing his back-up team before his first
major surgery, but this last time has been less well organized. The
problem is that the reelection campaign is full upon Chavez’s
supporters. His most trusted lieutenants tend to find overwhelming
the handling of those issues as well as running a government beset
by waves of criminality in the streets, offices, and homes.
Undoubtedly Chavez will do all he can to remain in power and his
illness may produce an outpouring of sympathy that will overwhelm
the usual partisanship in Venezuelan politics. One can be sure,
however, that behind locked doors of the ruling United Socialist
Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is a vigorous discussion of how to deal
with alternatives arising from President Chavez’s health problem.
The need for creating solutions for several scenarios involving
recovery, convalescence, continued indisposition, etc. during the
period leading up to the election in October is currently a matter
of priority consideration, to say the least.
Leading the race of opposition figures to replace Hugo Chavez is
the youthful and athletic 39-year-old governor of the state of
Miranda, Henrique Capriles. While still polling far behind Chavez,
Capriles has captured the attention of the entire range of
opposition groups and now provides a striking alternative to the
ailing and prematurely aging socialist leader. As the months
progress, Chavez’s inability to keep up with the “new boy on the
block” will become even more apparent.
If Chavez should physically falter, his left-wing mantle will be
picked up by one of his compadres who have served with him
during the past 13 years. One of the leading PSUV candidates is
Diosdado Cabello, now minister of Housing and Public Affairs as
well as head of the Venezuelan Telecommunications Commission
(CONATEL). The latter position provides Cabello with considerable
leverage in electioneering. The fact that his brother heads the
Venezuelan internal revenue service doesn’t hurt either.
Under Chavez Venezuela has become a benefactor to many anti-U.S.
elements around the world. Countries from Latin America to Africa
have come to count on his very personalized aid programs. Chavez’s
departure from active politics will have an international effect,
something that Iran and even Russia will find disadvantageous. The
die is cast, however. Hugo Chavez is playing out his final act —
if not scene.
