Never underestimate the efficacy of simplicity when it comes to
presidential politics. The Obama Administration need have no other
reason to fear high gas prices. However, the Administration also
has a particular concern that high pump prices threaten — as no
other issue does — the populist narrative it wants to put on its
reelection.
High gas prices are already big news. A Pew poll released late
last month (3/21, 1,009 respondents, M.O.E. +/- 3.1%) showed their
increase the most closely followed story and that 52% were
following the story very closely. Gallup’s 3/22 poll (1,024 adults,
M.O.E. +/-3.1%) showed respondents approved building the Keystone
XL pipeline from Canada to Texas by 2-1 (57%-29%).
High gas prices also don’t look to stop being news anytime
soon either. According to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, March’s nationwide price per gallon was $3.85 —
that’s the highest March price on record. It was up 27 cents from
the previous month, which was the highest February on record, which
followed the highest January. The last time monthly prices weren’t
the highest on record was September of last year.
While gas prices would seem to be just one of many continually
fluctuating economic variables, they have a disproportionate
impact. Certainly, they have a pervasive economic impact, but
nothing compared to their political impact — particularly in this
election.
For one thing, gas prices are simple to understand and in
politics, simple is good. Americans “get” high gas prices. Most
fill up weekly. They pass the price signs multiple times a day —
almost watching them increase. Gas prices ripple through everything
Americans buy, squeezing out the other things they want to buy. In
America, gas is a necessity, not a luxury, and we have no
alternative but to pay it.
Each election offers campaigns many issues and a few possible
themes. Over a contest’s course, each camp tries many, hoping one
connects with voters. Most don’t and every miss is a lost
opportunity of resources and voters’ attention. High gas prices are
already connecting, which means Republicans can feel pretty
confident in placing a heavy emphasis here.
Simple is good in politics, because it is effective in politics.
The last two presidents to lose reelection were victims of simple
themes. In 1992, Bush lost against “It’s the economy, stupid.” In
1980, Carter lost against “are you better off today than you were
four years ago.” Both themes embodied big ideas and feelings in a
few words.
Short, simple, powerful. In America, incumbent presidents don’t
generally lose. Before Carter, the last elected president to lose
reelection was Hoover in 1932. For an incumbent to lose, it takes a
lot to go wrong for the president and a lot to go right for the
challenger — starting with the challenger’s ability to focus
Americans’ attention. High gas prices already have America’s
attention.
Obama has had a bad economy since he took office. America
largely has given him a pass on it, blaming it on Bush. But
Americans are not a patient people when it comes to anything…
especially the economy.
High gas prices fit the bill of an effective challenger’s attack
in any election but especially in this one. First, they
could serve to conduct to Obama the general negativity about the
economy, from which he has been insulated.
More importantly, they threaten like no other issue the populist
narrative that Obama’s campaign so clearly wants for reelection.
High gas prices hit everyone, but they hit hardest those least able
to afford them. It is hard to convince the “little guy” that you
are fighting for him, when he is fighting just to pay for
gas.
Many of the things the Administration will trumpet in this
election, like health care or financial regulatory reform, will not
materialize for some time in average voters’ lives. High gas prices
appear instantly and constantly.
It is said that you only get one chance to make a first
impression. The same applies to a last one too. High gas prices do
not make for the impression the Administration wants to leave with
voters this summer, just when they making up their minds for
president. The Obama Administration is right to be worried about an
increasing pain in the gas.
