It’s that time of year again. I proudly present to you my
predictions for the 2012 Major League Baseball season. A year ago,
I outlandishly predicted
that the Chicago Cubs would win their first World Series title in
103 years. Well, I do not think the Cubs will win their first World
Series title in 104 years.
Before I go further I should note that there will be an extra
wild card team in each league. The two wild cards teams will face
each other in a one game playoff and the winner will proceed to
their respective league division series. So it is conceivable that
a third place team could win the 2012 World Series. Another way of
looking at it is that twenty years ago, a team had a 1 in 7 chance
to make the post-season. Today, a team has a 1 in 3 chance to make
the post-season. It could certainly be argued that MLB is being
watered down. On the other hand, it could also be argued that MLB
is allowing for more competition and more competition means better
pennant races. No one can argue that the stretch drive of the 2011
season wasn’t amongst the most exciting in the history of MLB with
the collapse of the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves and the
surge of the Tampa Bay Rays and the eventual World Series champion
St. Louis Cardinals.
And what a World Series it was! The Texas Rangers were one
strike away from winning the World Series not once, but twice, yet
couldn’t grab the brass ring. Game 6 of the 2011 World Series was
arguably the best game ever played in more than a century of the
Fall Classic. But who knows? Maybe the 2012 World Series will be
even better. Now let me tell you how I think this season will
proceed.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays#
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
AL Central
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
AL West
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers#
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
# - denotes AL Wild Card winners
AL Award Recipients
AL MVP — Albert Pujols, Los
Angeles Angels
AL Cy Young — Jered Weaver, Los Angeles
Angels
AL Rookie of the Year — Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
Rays
AL Manager of the Year — Ned Yost, Kansas City
Royals
AL Comeback Player of the Year — Adam Dunn,
Chicago White Sox
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins##
Washington Nationals##
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
NL West
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
## - denotes NL Wild Card winners
NL Award Recipients
NL MVP — Giancarlo Stanton, Miami
Marlins
NL Cy Young — Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins
NL Rookie of the Year — Trevor Bauer, Arizona
Diamondbacks
NL Manager of the Year — Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh
Pirates
NL Comeback Player of the Year — Jamie Moyer,
Colorado Rockies
2012 MLB POST-SEASON
AL Wild Card Match Up — Texas
Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Texas advances to ALDS
American League Divisional Series (ALDS) — Best three
out of five
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers — Rangers in four
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals — Angels in three
American League Championship Series (ALCS) — Best four
out of seven
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers — Rangers in seven
NL Wild Card Match Up — Miami Marlins vs.
Washington Nationals — Miami advances to NLDS
National League Divisional Series (NLDS) — Best three
out of five
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — Pirates in
five
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins — Marlins in four
National League Championship Series (NLCS) — Best four
out of seven
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins — Marlins in six
2012 World Series — Best four out of seven
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins — Marlins in six
So with apologies to Nolan Ryan and Ron Washington, the Texas
Rangers will become only the third team in MLB history to lose
three consecutive World Series joining the 1907-1909 Detroit Tigers
and the 1911-1913 New York Giants.
But the biggest story in the 2012 season will come out of
Boston. Later this month, Fenway Park will commemorate its 100th
anniversary. This month also marks the 100th anniversary of the
sinking of the Titanic and I believe the Red Sox season will bear a
great deal of resemblance to it. I suppose we can be grateful that
no women and children will be involved.
When a team has the sort of collapse the Red Sox had last year,
it is not something that is overcome overnight. It took more than a
decade for the Philadelphia Phillies to return to the post-season
after their spectacular collapse in the final two weeks of the 1964
season. The Phillies would be the beneficiary of the New York Mets’
collapse in the final two weeks of the 2007 season and by the looks
of it many years will pass before the Mets see post-season
baseball.
It may very well have been time for Terry Francona to move on.
Even with two World Series titles under his belt, all good things
must come to an end. But hiring Bobby Valentine reeks of
desperation. The Red Sox collapse has only just begun and making
Valentine the captain of the ship means they are accelerating
towards the iceberg. Valentine and new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington
have already butted heads over whether to put Daniel Bard in the
starting rotation or whether Jose Iglesias or Mike Aviles should be
the starting shortstop. If they’re having problems before the first
pitch of the 2012 season, then imagine how things could be in the
dog days of August.
Although there will be much reverie when Fenway Park marks its
100th anniversary, as a Red Sox fan it pains me to say there
will be little joy at Yawkey Way this season.
