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Sports Arena
My 2012 MLB Predictions
Only one thing is certain — Bobby Valentine is no bargain and his Red Sox are headed for the basement.
It’s that time of year again. I proudly present to you my predictions for the 2012 Major League Baseball season. A year ago, I outlandishly predicted that the Chicago Cubs would win their first World Series title in 103 years. Well, I do not think the Cubs will win their first World Series title in 104 years.
Before I go further I should note that there will be an extra wild card team in each league. The two wild cards teams will face each other in a one game playoff and the winner will proceed to their respective league division series. So it is conceivable that a third place team could win the 2012 World Series. Another way of looking at it is that twenty years ago, a team had a 1 in 7 chance to make the post-season. Today, a team has a 1 in 3 chance to make the post-season. It could certainly be argued that MLB is being watered down. On the other hand, it could also be argued that MLB is allowing for more competition and more competition means better pennant races. No one can argue that the stretch drive of the 2011 season wasn’t amongst the most exciting in the history of MLB with the collapse of the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves and the surge of the Tampa Bay Rays and the eventual World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals.
And what a World Series it was! The Texas Rangers were one strike away from winning the World Series not once, but twice, yet couldn’t grab the brass ring. Game 6 of the 2011 World Series was arguably the best game ever played in more than a century of the Fall Classic. But who knows? Maybe the 2012 World Series will be even better. Now let me tell you how I think this season will proceed.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays#
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
AL Central
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
AL West
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers#
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
# - denotes AL Wild Card winners
AL Award Recipients
AL MVP — Albert Pujols, Los
Angeles Angels
AL Cy Young — Jered Weaver, Los Angeles
Angels
AL Rookie of the Year — Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
Rays
AL Manager of the Year — Ned Yost, Kansas City
Royals
AL Comeback Player of the Year — Adam Dunn,
Chicago White Sox
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins##
Washington Nationals##
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
NL West
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
## - denotes NL Wild Card winners
About the Author
Aaron Goldstein writes from Boston, Massachusetts.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (63) | Leave a comment
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Richard M| 4.3.12 @ 8:34AM
Aaron's not shy of making bold predictions, but it was hard for me to continue reading after I saw the Pirates winning the NL Central.
Dave | 4.3.12 @ 1:34PM
While baseball IS and always be my first love (not counting Annette Funicello and peanut butter cookies), it will always remain a game of "whoda' thunk?" Those among us who still adore and follow the game, even the watered down version of today's brand, know full well that at the end of any given season, most any team might end-up in the World Series, or at least a playoff game. But I suppose that's what keeps younger fans interest on higher volume. After all, it still about the Benjamens.
Having said that, while admitting I'm not fully up-to-speed on the current Pirates 2012 roster, I'm a bit puzzled at Aaron's "Pirates win the East" prediction. I had to scratch my plentiful forehead, and ask "what's in that Boston water?" Then I remember the Amazin' Mets of '69, and Kirk Gibson taking Dennis Eckersley deep in game one's '88 match with Jose's A's. Or how about Fisk's pop fly over the Green Monster in game six that beat the Big Red Machine in that classic '70s Series? And for the really grizzled gray beards, a tip of the glove to Bobby Thompson's "Shot Heard 'Round The World" in the final '54 playoff game against Brooklyn's beloved Bums. Yep, it's a game filled with plenty of "whoda' thunks." And maybe that's why, to this day, I still have my game love affair on high heat. Well, in love MOST days. But like lovers all over greater Abnerville, we still have our occasional squabbles that end-up in some nasty name calling. What kind of names?
Well ...
As a guy with deep roots in southern California baseball (hard core Dodger fan since '58), I spent the developing part of my youth driving up Orange County's Katella Avenue several times a year to watch the (then) California Angels play ball in their new home, Anaheim Stadium. For years, resident fans privately called them the Anaheim Angels. We never really liked the CALIFORNIA logo. It was considered a local dis. Then one season not that long ago, there it was across the score cards and road jerseys: ANAHEIM. Finally, after all the years of whispering and hoping ... the ANAHEIM ANGELS were advertised as they really were: Residents of ANAHEIM.
But that was then ...
Today, as Angels fans know, Arte Moreno had a brain f-rt a few seasons back, and changed the team's designated I.D from ANAHEIM to LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM. We all knew it wouldn't fit across a road uni. And all that's across them today is ... ANGELS. We realized that sooner than later, announcers, sports writers, and other lazy bulbs would soon, (as per Moreno's plan) drop the name ANAHEIM altogether and begin calling them where they weren't: LOS ANGELES. The only connection to Los Angeles that Anaheim has is about 45 miles of connecting freeway... north.
I now know what dedicated New York Giants fan must have gone through when the team played for years in Jersey. But I never heard announcers or writers refer to the team as the New York Giants of JERSEY. Of course, back there, thems are probably fightin' words. Out in Anaheim, double-downing on your rival city's name only incites the risk of having your beach ball popped in the 7th inning stretch. Choking the Rally Monkey might still get you an assault charge.
Howard Cosell was famous for the line "tell it like it is." I guess all of us who bought game day tickets in the hardcore seats of Anaheim Stadium had hoped that the city's name would get its just props and start calling it like it is: ANAHEIM. Not LOS ANGELES!
Truth is, and looking over the long history of names, this too will probably change as the seasons lengthen and shift. Matter of fact, the fellow who cuts my lawn once a week still refers Anaheim as -- Mexico. And I suspect if Barack Obama and Harry Reid get another term to complete their Undo America scheme, the names Anaheim and/or Los Angeles will eventually fade from the Angels official team logo, and be replaced with one that's more politically, if not geographically correct: The Enlightened Angels of New Tijuana North.
Whoda' think?
Richard M| 4.3.12 @ 4:42PM
In baseball, sure almost *anything* is possible. Who would have predicted that the Cardinals would come storming back from a 10.5 game deficit to win a playoff berth - and then go on to win the World Series? Or that Boston would collapse so spectacularly? And that's just last season.
But it's unlikely in the extreme that the Pirates can win their division. The Cardinals and Rays beat long odds to make the playoffs, but both had reasonably talented teams. The Pirates just don't (certainly not any pitching). And in baseball, talent - or the lack of it - tells in the end
IzeHavitt| 4.6.12 @ 12:08AM
Who would have predicted the Cards would come storming back from a 10 1/2 game deficit....???(ahem)...me.
Mike| 4.3.12 @ 8:36AM
Same with me, Richard, when I saw the Tigers were not even a wild card.
albert constantine jr.| 4.3.12 @ 9:16AM
I saw the Pirates play the Phillies at CBP last night in their on deck series. While they were holding back on tiring their starting pitching, and they usually play the Phillies well, they didn't impress as a first place team.
But then again, with Pujols and Fielder out of the NL Central, maybe Andrew McCutchen begins to emerge as a bigger offensive threat, and who knows?
Aaron Goldstein| 4.3.12 @ 11:09AM
I strongly considered McCutchen as my NL MVP but opted for Stanton as the writers tend to favor power hitters. Nevertheless, if he has the kind of year I think he'll have he could finish as runner up in the NL MVP balloting.
albert constantine jr.| 4.3.12 @ 11:34AM
He homered last night into a strong wind to tie the game for a while, so don't count him out on having some power.
Aaron Goldstein| 4.3.12 @ 6:23PM
McCutchen does have some pop in his bat and his HR totals have gone up each season. He did hit 23 homeruns in 2011 but his average dropped nearly 30 points although his OBP remained unchanged. But Stanton is only 22 and he has just scratched the surface of his power.
Nevertheless, if McCutchen hits near .300, goes 30-30, plays Gold Glove caliber centerfield and the Bucs make the post-season, he could get the NL MVP.
Occam's Tool| 4.3.12 @ 11:34PM
I'm gonna go out on a big limb here, Aaron. A BIG limb.
I'm going to say that the Cubs do NOT get into the World Series, much less win it, for the rest of my expected professional career, which is 20 years. The Goat has destroyed better men than Epstein.
Whoops, there it is! :)
Occam's Tool| 4.4.12 @ 12:03AM
KC Royals haven't put anything together since 1985, the age of Ronnie Magnus. I don't think so, Aaronski!
Mark MacInnis| 4.3.12 @ 9:34AM
You certainly have the "Lazarus -back from the dead" mentality with the Pirates, Royals and fergoshsakes...Jamie Moyer! ascendant. For the record, Moyer always has been one of my favorites....but....really? Pittsburgh AND Kansas City? Picking one would be considered BOLD? Picking both?
Lunacy. But, hey, everyone's entitled to their opinion, and in even in Kansas City and Pittsburgh, on Opening Day, hope springs eternal.
The American Hitman| 4.3.12 @ 9:51AM
Phillies...all you need to know.
Stormy| 4.3.12 @ 9:51AM
I am glad that the author does not make his living as a sports writer. There are so so many things wrong with his predictions, where do I start? The Pirates? C'mon, man. The Braves finishing behind the New York Mets? How pathetic? The Red Sox finishing behind the O's? There's more but why bother?
Brian Mc| 4.3.12 @ 10:38AM
Hey Stormy, don't dis my O's. They are young and stranger things have happened, would you not agree? Oh well, I root for them and anyone playing the Yankees, as always.
Dennis Shaw| 4.3.12 @ 9:53AM
Odd predictions no doubt. Pirates to win, Cards are 4th, Braves last, both NL WC teams come from a very good division that will probably chew each other up and maybe not yield one, let alone two, SFG 3rd? Maybe: It does after all "happen every spring" where the have nots look wistfully at their team and ask "why not." Too many why nots here however. I do think the Buccos are poised to get to .500 ... not sure they can get to #1 yet.
Barbara Stanwyck| 4.3.12 @ 10:32AM
In the National League East, it wouldn't surprise me if the Braves, Marlins and Nats all overtake the suddenly aging Phillies.
SUBVET| 4.3.12 @ 12:51PM
Hey.........Barbara I visited your house last saturday on a tour.
www.theoakridgeestate.org
Jeff R| 4.3.12 @ 10:48AM
Aaron, what can I say about your predictions? There, well, adventurous, if not a tad fanciful. At the very least, you'll make Royals' and Pirates' fans feel good (for a day)!
Bob| 4.4.12 @ 1:33AM
They will have their day during the season. A few seasons ago the Royals had Greinke fever and the Pirates looked like they might just turn things around last season. But both are just bad teams. They haven't been able to put together a winning season in a long time. To have both of them win their division is quite a stretch, to say the least. To me, that says that Aaron thinks all teams in the AL Central and NL Central will ALL have losing seasons, and we'll have multiple teams making 100 wins, 110 wins, or even 120 wins with entire divisions having losing seasons. It has to be that way for the Royals and Pirates to even have a chance.
Steve A| 4.3.12 @ 10:52AM
test
Crassus| 4.3.12 @ 11:04AM
Royals and Pirates my rear end. Those are almost as bad as picking the Cubes last year. You suck as a prognosticator, Aaron Goldstein. Go back to your day job in the tollbooth.
Crassus| 4.3.12 @ 11:07AM
But I do agree with Goldstein that Bobby Valentine sucks. What were the Red Sox thinking when they hired him? I guess Larry Bowa and Mike Hargrove weren't available.
Occam's Tool| 4.4.12 @ 12:00AM
Uh, the KC Royals ain't going nowhere, nohow.
Steve A| 4.3.12 @ 11:07AM
Aaron, Being a New England native I "feel your pain" on the upcoming Red Sox debacle. But predicting them to finish below the Orioles is a bit much.
I just can't bring myself to see The Pirates getting it done.
AL MVP: Jose Bautista; AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Troy Tulo. NL ROY: Bryce Harper
Stretching a bit on the ROY but I really think Troy T. gets it if Colorado goes places as you suggest.
Regards, Steve
Aaron Goldstein| 4.3.12 @ 11:11AM
Well, Tulo certainly has the fire back in his belly after he was drilled the other day by ex-teammate Ubaldo Jimenez.
Steve A| 4.3.12 @ 11:42AM
If Troy really wants to PO Ubaldo, when he is asked about the incident, all he has to do is say, "no big deal, he dosen't throw that hard anymore anyway." That would frost him good.
Chris in Houston| 4.3.12 @ 12:10PM
Hilarious! Is a 5 game suspension a big deal for a pitcher? Isn't it essentially a 1 game suspension? Anyway - nice dig
Aaron Goldstein| 4.3.12 @ 12:19PM
Except that Tulo had to come out of the game, missed yesterday's game and will miss the last few games of spring training. But it appears he'll be ready for Opening Night on Friday.
Steve A| 4.3.12 @ 12:37PM
Yeah, that does wrinkle the plan a bit. He needed to shrug it off & amble on down to first & steal 2nd on the first pitch.
Bob| 4.4.12 @ 1:29AM
Oh man yes, that would be awesome to hear.
Sparky| 4.3.12 @ 11:13AM
Aaron, you do realize that the Royals have lost Joakim Soria for the year and Salvador Perez for the first half, right?
Anthony| 4.3.12 @ 11:15AM
Ah yes, spring is finally here. Baseball and Ballentine. (for you NY oldies)
Boston and the Basement.
Start spreading the news.......
albert constantine jr.| 4.3.12 @ 2:53PM
a three ring blast...
It's the cool refresher, Ballantine, Ballantine Beer...
(They advertised at Phillies games in the 60s, too).
Anthony| 4.3.12 @ 3:07PM
Make the 3 ring sign, and ask the man for Ballantine.
Phillies, huh? Interesting.
albert constantine jr.| 4.3.12 @ 5:44PM
Of course, Schaefer was the one beer to have (when you're having more than one).
Try a slogan like that today.
Anthony| 4.3.12 @ 9:31PM
So true!!
Bill| 4.3.12 @ 11:19AM
Marlins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jakota| 4.3.12 @ 11:22AM
* NUTS *
Yourworsteffingnitemare| 4.3.12 @ 11:24AM
Your "Tehran Ron" epithet is backed by shoddy baseball predictions. Pirates over Phils in the playoffs? Marlins to the WS? How can you see the Pirates even being in the playoffs? KC over the Tigers? Fielder added to that lineup means nothing to you? Maybe you should stick to bad political punditry and leave baseball to real men.
Steve A| 4.3.12 @ 11:46AM
Hey Yourworst, Not only do you have no class, but your hero current President throws a left handed heater like an 8 yo girl.
Anthony| 4.3.12 @ 12:03PM
Yeah, they kicked Obozo off that Chicago gay bath house soft ball team cuz he couldn't complete the double play.
Yourworsteffingnitemare| 4.3.12 @ 12:00PM
Well Steve, at least RP is not a liar like Romney, nor is he a religious nut like Santorum. Any person who believes that you should lead your life as you see fit not live it as society sees fit, is OK by me. With that in mind, doesn't it appear to you that the Republicans are just as much about control of your life as the Dems?
Steve A| 4.3.12 @ 12:27PM
Yours, The short answer to your question is no. You are confusing personal morality with government morality. Santorum goes to Church = Obama wants the Government to force the Church to pay for some babes Trojan supply. Don't think so.
Les| 4.3.12 @ 12:05PM
My White Sox(and Bho's) are going to be pathetic.
Robin Ventura? Come on man.
cuban pete| 4.3.12 @ 12:54PM
BHO is a White Sox fan because Axelrod did research and decided that the yuppie "Cubbie" fans were already locked up so he advised BHO claim to be a Sox fan in an attempt to get some votes. He couldn't name one starting player. He is not a Sox fan.
We won't be good but we won't be pathetic.
Ventura will be a good manager in a few years because he's a good baseball man.
Steve A| 4.3.12 @ 1:07PM
Cuban, Don't forget Obama's love for the "Ole ComiNskey Field" as a true demonstration of his fandom.
Ira| 4.3.12 @ 12:06PM
The Brewers are way too low. They will have a great rotation. Without Thug Fielder they will be much better on defense.
DRed| 4.3.12 @ 1:51PM
The only way the Red Sox will finish below the Orioles is if the team plane crashes.
Sparky| 4.5.12 @ 6:13PM
Whose team plane?
james wilson| 4.3.12 @ 1:55PM
These are the worst pick I have seen all year, but I'm kinda happy somebody has set the bar so low. Still, if that spaghetti sticks to the wall the Hall of Fame is going to have to open a room for you.
JimH| 4.3.12 @ 2:24PM
Aaron, I know it must have been painful for you to put Boston last, not sure I agree with that. It is, however a credit to your objectivity. They have some good bats and a some good, though not deep pitching. I do disagree with you picking the Rays to not make the playoffs. On paper at least, they possibly have the best starting lineup 1- 5 in baseball along with a pretty good defense. That combination along with a bit more hitting than last year should keep them in the playoff hunt, particularly with the expanded format. As a former NYer and Mets fan I do look forward to seeing what sort of disguises Bobby V will don in the dugout this year.
DRed| 4.3.12 @ 4:00PM
The Orioles are one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in baseball. They'll be lucky to win 75 games. There's nothing objective that would lead you to predict the Red Sox will be worse than them.
D-Man| 4.3.12 @ 4:24PM
I'm a huge Red Sox fan and the biggest probelm I have with Aaron's prediction is that its probably true.
Fielding Melish| 4.3.12 @ 5:32PM
I have absolutely no idea how the MLB races will wash-out, [but] they sure as heck won't wind-up as Aaron Goldstein has predicted, no way!!! No way!!!
Ya know why, because the Oakland Athletics are going to win the whole enchilada, hopefully!!!
Les| 4.3.12 @ 7:03PM
Cuban Pete-The Cubs when I was a young kid,in the mid 60s were truly awful. Even worse than they are now. At that time,the area around Wrigley was far from yuppie,hillbillies,mentally insane let out of the institution,Puerto Ricans and some blacks. It wasn't really until Harry Caray left the Sox in 1982 to go to Wrigley that the Cubs became in. Actually,the Sox were probably more popular until about 1982.
cuban pete| 4.3.12 @ 9:21PM
Les,
I grew up on the south side but during the 50's I don't recall the acrimony between the fans.
By mid July the Cubs were out of it,so if the Sox were out of town we could take the El to Wrigley,buy a bleacher seat and by the third inning we were in the boxes and got to see Musial,Mays, etc up close.
The 68-69 surge by the Cubs happened when the south side was going down hill and the Sox were owned by Bill Veeck,who was a decent chap but had no money. Veeck had to resort to gimmicks including goof ball Steve Dahl's disco destruction night. Nick Buonaconti, who was Bucky Dent's agent said he was negotiating with a "broke ball club."
Harry Caray, the former announcer of the hated Cardinals and later the Sox now has a statue at Wrigley.
So,I mildly disagree that the Sox were more popular as late as 1982.
Occam's Tool| 4.3.12 @ 11:36PM
Cuban Pete: a good man who knows the term "insane coho lips."
Glenn T| 4.3.12 @ 7:46PM
My only comment is that must have bee written prior to Franck McCheap selling the LA Dodgers to a consortium led by Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten. There is real enthusiasm her now for the Dodgers and with a line up of Kemp, Ethier and Loney in the middle and great pitching led by Clayton Kershaw, plus a "weak: western division, I think the Dodgers will be the western champs.
SF_Exile| 4.3.12 @ 8:39PM
Another Red Sox fan watching this train wreck from a distance and wondering what the heck is going to happen. Sputtering to a halt like a balky horse before the gate.
With new closer Bailey going in for surgery practically on the eve of Opening Day, I'm afraid our Daniel Bard is going to have to suck it up and go back to the bullpen. Melancon ain't gonna cut it. Not one save in all the time he closed for the Astros and now he's in that cauldron called the AL East. Not good.
But, at least all the sniping going on around comments thrown by Bobby V. and Curt Schilling (whom I love!) has made for interesting talk radio!
JambalayaJim| 4.3.12 @ 8:54PM
Was it Dumas who said "Those who don't know their history are condemned to repeat it? The Detroit Tigers will make it to the World Series, and, as in 1968, provide just the exact diversion necessary to keep the City from burning completely to the ground this summer, with the Tigers storming back from a 3-1 deficit to take game seven on the arm of, not Justin Verlander, but Max Scherzer (a la' Mickey Lolich) Write it down.
Bob| 4.4.12 @ 1:24AM
Well, now I know that Aaron Goldstein really doesn't know what he's talking about.
Do you honestly think the Braves will finish worse than the Mets? Really? Granted, the Braves will not do anything as long as Fredi Gonzalez is in charge, but these are the injury-magnet Mets. The only possible way to finish lower than the Mets is to suffer an unbelievable collapse, the likes of which the Florida Marlins experienced in June of last year, and it was only that collapse which saved the Mets from a last place finish in the NL East. And now you're putting the Braves behind the Mets? HA!
The same with the Boston Red Sox. Are you only putting both teams last because of their epic collapses last season? Remember, neither team finished last in 2011, and they're not going to do so this season. I'm equally as stupefied that you picked the Orioles ahead of the Red Sox as I am that you picked the Mets ahead of the Braves. And no, this year won't be the Blue Jays' year, the Rays are still a force with the same manager who pulls off impossible wins and the same core players and pitchers who pull off the same wins.
Picking the Royals to win the AL Central? I don't even know where to begin with this one, so I'll just pass.
Ditto with the Pirates.
And no, just because the 2008 Rays defied all of baseball and went all the way to the World Series, winning the AL East of the Yankees and Red Sox no less, doesn't mean that you are now allowed to pick both the Royals and the Pirates to win their divisions.
About the only ones I think you got right are the West divisions. The Angels are undoubtedly the team to beat, and the NL West is up for grabs.
I still can't believe you picked the Pirates to win the NL Central, AND picked them to beat the Phillies. You do know who the Phillies are, right? And you know who the Pirates are, right?
OK, and now for the only non-objective part of my post. Full disclosure, I'm a huge fan of the Miami Marlins. I just went to both exhibition games they had against the Yankees, and I would've stayed for Opening Day if I didn't live so far away in Gainesville. So yes, I have to agree that I want the Marlins to win it all.
I just can't believe you would pick the Braves (granted, managed by Fredi Gonzalez) and the Red Sox (granted, filled with players who would rather get drunk than play ball) to finish behind the Mets and Orioles, and that you would pick the Pirates and Royals, perennial losing teams, to win their divisions.
Aaron Goldstein, I recommend that you also add MLB on your list of topics to avoid, right up there with Rush Limbaugh.
Tony| 4.4.12 @ 4:45PM
The Pirates haven't had a winning season since when? 1993?
Let's get this straight. The Cardinals finished at 90-72, plus 11-7 in the postseason against excellent teams. They did that despite the following:
David Freese was out for a couple of months.
An unsettled bullpen in the first half of the season; the Cards lost 16 games in which they led after 8 innings, an absurdly high figure.
Albert Pujols had his weakest season ever.
The infield defense was porous before the acquisition of Furcal.
Wainwright was gone for the whole year, and Carpenter was ineffective for the first month and a half.
Sure, they have issues. Albert is gone, but Carlos Beltran ain't exactly a zero. Wainwright is back. Freese, Jay, Molina, and Garcia are reaching their peak. And they have the strongest bench in the NL, with plenty of players eager to snatch starting spots: Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig.
The Cards will be a playoff team, winning 90+ games. Heck, their WORST record in the last 12 years was 78-84...