As we grind down to defeat in Afghanistan it’s suddenly
fashionable for pundits and pols to prescribe the outcome we will
reach.
Their prescriptions are usually phrased in terms of “what
the Afghanis must do” or “what Afghanistan must understand,” and
sail off from there into ivory tower fantasies.
Such as the one built by the Washington Post’s
David Ignatius, who
wrote last week that we should: “Build a good enough Afghan
army to hold Kabul and maintain contact with the provinces;
negotiate power-sharing with the Taliban that can avert civil war;
and work with Afghanistan’s neighbors to build a firewall that can
keep the inevitable violence there from destabilizing the
region.”
The worst came from the Economist, via British PM
David Cameron. In its latest issue, Economist says:
“David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, defined
‘doing the job’ in Afghanistan as leaving the country ‘looking
after its own security, not being a haven for terror, without the
involvement of foreign troops.’ That does not seem too much to ask.
Democracy, women’s rights, even political stability: all these are
now at best subsidiary parts of a job that has consumed the past
decade.”
Really?
We’ve invested ten years of war in Afghanistan so we have
a right to expect these things? But wars aren’t financial
instruments. You aren’t guaranteed anything at the
end. Not peace, not security, not even an end to the killing. If
you want those things, you have to kill the enemy and convince his
survivors that he is defeated. These things we have not
done.
The ivory tower dwellers will talk and keep talking. But
there are a few facts that explode their theories and demonstrate
why America — even after a decade of war — is essentially
powerless to affect the future of Afghanistan now, and that our
power will diminish daily until we withdraw completely.
One fact is that the Taliban operate freely across the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border, frequently accompanied by Pakistani
jihadis who fight alongside them. In towns and villages across
Afghanistan, wherever U.S. troops are not at that very moment, the
Taliban moves without disturbance.
Most Afghanis tolerate or sympathize with the Taliban.
They suffer oppression, murder, and theft of their crops,
especially partially-processed opium, which remains Afghanistan’s
major crop and a huge source of revenue for the Taliban. Many
Afghanis may hate the Taliban but they tolerate them for two
reasons.
First is that they resent — and in some regions such as
the Korengal Valley — deeply hate non-Muslims far more. We have
been offering what we thought was a good swap: democracy for
Taliban oppression. But the Afghanis haven’t bought what we’ve been
selling. They don’t want to swap anything for their deeply
ingrained Islamist beliefs even if it means suffering murder and
confiscatory taxation by fellow Islamists who they cannot
themselves drive away. It is the tribal warfare Afghanis have lived
with since Alexander the Great.
Another part of that is that we haven’t delivered on what
we’ve promised.
The first principle of “counterinsurgency” is to provide
security to the locals to pave the way for civilian government to
provide credible leadership and services. We simply can’t do that
in Afghanistan — it’s just too big and the population is too
scattered — and knew we couldn’t from the start.
The second reason is the failure of the Karzai
government.
Hamid Karzai’s kleptocracy is comprised of his relatives,
friends, and co-Pashtun tribalists. You really need to read Bing
West’s great book,
The Wrong War, to see how deep and comprehensive this
failure is. Karzai may pretend to rule in Kabul, but outside its
environs there is no government and no prospect of one.
Derivatively, the Afghan army and security forces are held together
only by the presence of U..S troops and the prompt payment for
everything the Afghan forces do. As West writes, we have created a
perfect entitlement society in the Afghan government. No one does
anything for patriotism or nationalism, they do things for money or
goods or personal favors. Nationalism and patriotism are unknown
concepts. Islam dominates all thought and action.
Resting atop all of this is Pakistan’s dedicated alliance
with the Taliban which we are unable to disrupt or even interfere
with.
Given these stubborn facts, to say that we are going to
ensure Afghanistan is democratic, that it won’t again be ruled by
the Taliban and be a hatching-ground for terror, that it will be
stable in any other sense or that we can build some “firewall”
around it to keep its evils inside, is, plainly, fraudulent.
Afghanistan will, soon, be again what it was before 9/11, or
worse. And there isn’t a bloody thing we can do to
prevent that from happening.
I CANNOT LET PASS last week’s event in which U.S. Marines
in Afghanistan were ordered to disarm and attend a speech by
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. Showing this distrust of some of
our very best dishonored every man and woman who has ever worn the
eagle, globe and anchor.
Why were Panetta and his minions so afraid?
Historical precedent condemns Panetta’s action. In August
1588, facing the Armada and Spanish invasion, Queen Elizabeth went
to Tilbury to rally her troops. Some of her lords insisted that she
not walk among the armed men, fearing for her safety. She knew
better. In her speech, Elizabeth said:
We have been persuaded by some that are careful of our
safety, to take heed how we commit ourselves to armed multitudes,
for fear of treachery; but I assure you I do not desire to live to
distrust my faithful and loving people. Let tyrants fear, I have
always so behaved myself that, under God, I have placed my chiefest
strength and safeguard in the loyal hearts and good-will of my
subjects; and therefore I am come amongst you, as you see, at this
time, not for my recreation and disport, but being resolved, in the
midst and heat of the battle, to live and die amongst you all; to
lay down for my God, and for my kingdom, and my people, my honour
and my blood, even in the dust.
If only Elizabeth’s spirit lived within some of our
uniformed and civilian leaders. There is no safer
place — for any American — than to be surrounded by armed
Marines. May Heaven condemn those who dishonor
them.
