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A Further Perspective
U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy at Risk
In Mali’s north, Tuareg forces advance and a major Saharan junction is now in rebel hands.
(Page 2 of 2)
The situation in the Azawad (dixit Tuareg) or northern Mali (dixit Malians) is further complicated by the overlap of tribalism, gangsterism, and Islamist revolution. Most observers agree that AQIM, as well as the movement led by Ag Aghali, has partaken of the lucrative criminal activities that are rife in the region, such as kidnapping and drug-smuggling. But they also question whether some of the barbaric violence for which the Islamists are notorious is acceptable to Ag Aghali’s desert code of honor. On the other side, it is not difficult to find Malian patriots who assert Ag Aghali and code of honor are as sportsmanship and professional cycling.
Regional observers believe the Tuareg and AQIM must be viewed as discrete challenges to Mali, even if there have been tactical alliances between the two. But from the point of view of the tribes that live in proximity with the Tuareg in Mali’s north, the troubles are likely to spur the formation of tribal militias, as they did in the 1990s, adding to the violent and volatile mix in the southern Sahara.
The U.S. has not taken a position on the Tuareg question and reportedly has not participated in the recent fighting beyond a one-off humanitarian air-drop of supplies into Tessalit. It remains committed to helping the Sahelian countries develop their defenses against subversion and unrest. The State Department “deplores the use of violence against a democratically elected government,” and has called for a cessation of hostilities. It is assisting in succoring the estimated 170,000 refugees from the fighting (displaced internally as well as in neighboring countries).
With a small army (top-heavy with generals whom hard-liners dismiss as lacking the will to fight), the country could settle into a situation of de facto partition. With an economy that, while receiving accolades from the IMF and the State Department for recent liberal reforms, still shows the fragilities typical of the region, including under-capitalization, corruption, poor infrastructure and investment in human resources, the question then arises whether this will provoke the permanent breakup of Mali and with it a constitutional crisis and the subversion of the country’s democracy. However remote, such a pessimistic outcome cannot be excluded.
About the Author
Roger Kaplan, a Washington-based writer, covers the Middle East and Africa (and tennis) for The American Spectator.
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Jack in Wi.| 3.16.12 @ 6:28AM
What the hell are we doing in Mali? Another country that we are only asking for trouble in. Let these people run their own countries and solve their own problems. The same goes for Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Egypt, Yeman, Bahrein, Syria, Iraq, Afganistan, Iran, etc. How much money and blood do we have to waste on this foolishness?
Alan Brooks| 3.16.12 @ 12:10PM
Agreed, it has become all tactics, no strategy save for an incoherent one.
Solution?:
let's learn to read and write Arabic.
Bill| 3.16.12 @ 7:30AM
Animals in the jungle. Let there be lighten!
Nick| 3.16.12 @ 10:29AM
"That nigger lover President Clinton had the pen and vetoed so many good bills passed by the Gingrich-led Congress."
- Written by Bill the Bigot, in the Time for Newt to Do the Honorable Thing thread:
http://spectator.org/archives/.....ent_749403
You're a moron and a racist, Bigot Bill.
GO AWAY!
Moroccan Berber | 3.16.12 @ 7:54AM
You began playing the role of the objective analyst, but soon after, you let us believe that the "Barbarian Islamists" and "Toureg Rebels" may be used as alternative names.
I don't think that US has any strategic deal in Central Sahara, and you can suggest that it is time to find a gateway to it. But keep in mind this not a regime you can overtake and make him say what US want to hear. The Al Qaid In the islamic maghreb will also flourish with the "new taken deal in Sahara".
Harry the Horrible| 3.16.12 @ 9:31AM
Moslems killing Moslems - what's the problem? We need to back off.
Mike W| 3.16.12 @ 9:57AM
For the love of God - why do we have anyone in Mali?
It is all a last gasp of a dying American empire.
Dick Nome| 3.16.12 @ 10:22AM
"..dying American empire". Since when did we have an empire?? You make less sense than the author trying to make some sense out of a nothing much operation in Mali that makes no sense to begin with.
jay hoenemeyer| 3.16.12 @ 11:14AM
This a perfect oppurtunity to deploy a new but actually very old tactic " the punitive expedition . Used to great effect by the British and even greater effect by the Romans , there is no boots on the ground messiness or nation building gibberish , there is a simple and clear messge , if you misbehave you will be punished . We will destroy your miserable villages and we will slaughter your miserable flocks . And when we leave not one stone shall be left standing upon another . If these savages want to live in the 10th century , give them the whole 10th century experience . It will work .
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cicero| 3.16.12 @ 6:20PM
Jay, usually, when the Romans or Brits went in for "punitive operations", it was because they had some stake in the matter. So far, I have yet to discern any American interest in that region, other than the usual "humanitarian" one. However, I do see a continuation of the pattern that has been developing in sub-Saharan Africa, and other areas of the world with significant Muslim populations. From Biafra to the Philipines to the Ouigurs, we seem to be witnessing constant wars of agression by Moslem elements against Christian, anamist, or philosophy based peoples. This is a replay of the original Moslem comquest of 1400 years ago, only less openly apparent. If the civilized countries of the world don't wake up soon, and recognize what is going on, they will soon find the entire African continent under Moslem rule. It will be bloody. All the humanitarian aid will be of little use. The dark continent will again be "dark". I do not expect the West to wake up and do anything. In fact, most of the West is totally incapable of protecting itself, let alone far off Africa. But that is another matter. I guess that maybe we do have a stake in the game. The question becomes whether we have the stomach for it.
jay hoenemeyer| 3.19.12 @ 12:04PM
The crux of my argument is 'mibehave' . If you murder 3,000 americans at the WTC or even if you cut off the head of one WSJ reporter , we , the civilized world , will punish you the uncivilised world so that you don't do it again . And as to Rome anyway , there are places so far beyond the Pale (sic), you just don't go there. Like across the Rhine after 11CE and like the whole of the soon to be Dark Comtinent . Or they sell their chromium uranium or molybdenum to the world like the Sunni Saudis sell their oil or keep it in the ground , their choice . But by all means avoid getting into the quagmire of another Parthia if possible
Mike Hawk| 3.17.12 @ 9:15AM
I think I know where the UN can relocate now. Seems nobody wants to move it to Mogadishu as I have proposed.
mmercier| 3.17.12 @ 9:33AM
It is entirely possible that the domino theory has been effectively implemented within another realm.
If Syria canbe secured, the Obama will grant to the world a caliphate realm from Africa to Persia. When he is done, Israel will be isolated, and Europa will live under a Persian nuclear umbrella guided from Moscow.
mmercier| 3.17.12 @ 9:48AM
Note... for those who care what words mean... calipHATE.
Words have meanings. These premises go back a way.
Americas in their present manifestation have no sense of... continuity.
Clint| 3.17.12 @ 2:28PM
Try The Meaningful Words Sunni, Shi'as, Alawi, Salafism, Wahabi, Suffis, Zahiri, Mu'tazil......
POST American| 3.18.12 @ 11:33PM
---Putting aside the cover up and memory holing
of the 'natural' death of Andrew Breitbart
---along with the very substance of his video(s)
of former Kissinger aide 'BAR--Rockefeller;
Obama in college.
Laying it on top of the memory holing of
the John Wheeler murder ----the FUKISHIMA
world nuclear disaster -----the chloroforming
of the US Constitution with NDAA 1021
---the ANTI-Consititutional statements
and stances of Pelosi in RED China ---and
sitting justice Ginzburg in 'E---jipped'
----AND the blatant unfold of de facto
USURY-Globalist TREASON by 'PAN--NET--a'
before congress last week ---and the subsequent
media blackout on IMPEACHMENT proceedings
currently underway i the Senate
Setting all this a top the decade plus GM food
Halocaust ---AND the saturation CHEM-trailing
of our skies -----which itself lays upon almost a century of
capstone USURY and EUGENICS
fun and games that includes the establishment
of the ANTI-Consitutional 'FED' --world wars
--genocides ---depressions --implosions
-----and the full-blown handover ---empowerment,
TREASON and FINAL EUGENICS
RED China 'MERE--ICK---CULL' ---OP
--------OK ---NOW let's talk about 'fighting terror'.