The weather did no favors for birthday boy Mitt Romney Monday
morning in Mobile, Alabama. Romney may have done himself no favors,
either. But that isn’t much below par for the course: Oddly enough,
despite the frenetic campaign activity by three presidential
campaigns in the Gulf Coast states before Tuesday’s primaries, none
of them seems to be hitting on all cylinders.
After my coverage of
Rick Santorum and
Newt Gingrich last week, I looked forward to completing the
troika when Romney appeared at a Mobile diner called the “Whistle
Stop” for what was billed as a 6:45 a.m. breakfast appearance. But
there wasn’t much to cover.
The morning was noticeably overcast and intermittently
drizzly. Romney was inside with some pre-selected locals doing a
Fox News appearance. Outside in the parking lot, some 200 members
of the public, plus a gaggle of local and national media, waited
for Romney’s speech. And waited. And waited. Fox apparently took
precedence. At about 7:15, Ann Romney came out to say her husband
would be out soon. They knew it was important to do it soon, she
said, because they were looking at weather forecasts and were
afraid everyone would get drenched.
Then she made her mini-pitch for her husband. It amounted
to this: “He’s gonna win anyway, so you should help him
win.”
Actually, what she said was this: “It is more and more
clear that Mitt is going to be the nominee of the party.” And it’s
important, because “I know women, and women are talking about the
economy. They are mad. I am mad.” They are all mad about the debt
that Barack Obama is leaving as a “burden on our children.” Her
husband understands this. That’s why he’ll be out in a minute to
tell you about why he should win the race we all know he is going
to win.
Alas, after about 10 more Mitt-less minutes (with a brief
cameo by comedian Jeff Foxworthy, speaking for about 90 seconds on
Romney’s behalf), the feared downpour arrived. It was a
gully-washer. Huge sheets of rain swept down on the crowd and
within about two minutes the parking lot was full of puddles and/or
little rivulets of water rushing toward the nearest drains. The
Secret Service, which had previously kept people from seeking
shelter under the awnings of the diner and its neighboring
businesses, relented, and everybody who could do so crowded under
the overhangs while others huddled under umbrellas that kept heads
dry but couldn’t possibly keep shoes and legs from getting
drenched.
Suddenly, at about 7:34, Romney’s voice emerged over a
loudspeaker. He had come out under the overhang, too. Some people
even said they could see his forehead. The candidate launched right
in.
“About three and a half years ago, the voters sent a
message to Washington. I think it is time to send a
president to Washington.”
Obama doesn’t understand the economy, said Romney, “but I
understand this economy because I’ve actually had a job in this
economy. We need somebody who actually has run something, who
understands it. I have had businesses and fixed them. I have gone
to the Olympics and fixed them. But this president is out of ideas
and out of experience. Now we’re going to make sure he is out of a
job.”
By this time, the nine minutes or so of downpour had
slowed again to a more gentle rain. Everybody who was there outside
had already gotten drenched. Romney so far had spoken for just
three minutes.
“You know, I was in Mississippi yesterday and had some
catfish for just the second time in my life,” he said, apropos of
nothing. “It was just as good as the first time.” And now it was
good to be next door in Alabama, where he really hoped people would
support him. “You guys can all help by voting multiple times,” he
said, then paused as if expecting some laughs that never
came.
“Anyway, I don’t want to make you keep getting wet [by
then, the rain was back to intermittent drizzle], so I’ll cut it
off here. Thanks for coming.”
It was 7:38. The big event was over. It’s tough to fight
Mother Nature.
Then again, despite careening across both Alabama and
Mississippi at a pace that would wear most mortals to a frazzle,
none of the three major campaigns are finding a groove. The
Santorum ads don’t match his strong message of “freedom” that the
former senator emphasized Thursday night and that the Wall
Street Journal’s Dan Henninger
praised earlier that day. And Santorum hasn’t done much to
localize national issues, nor to try to gin up a “bandwagon”
feeling to build on his huge win in Kansas.
Gingrich events are erratic, with some relative hits
and some weak misses.
He sounds okay, but looks pale and tired, adding to the sense that
he is now no more than a spoiler in the race, completely unable to
win the nomination himself but unwilling to admit that he is
helping Romney by splitting the “not-Mitt” vote.
Romney, meanwhile, is easily winning the ad war, where he
finally has added some positive and effective “soft” spots (about
helping a man find his missing daughter) to his far more common
spate of harsh attacks — but his personal discomfort in the South
is almost cringe-inducing. He said in public he feels like he is at
“an away game.” He sounded surprised to have actually liked “cheesy
grits.” (They are called “cheese grits,” not “cheesy.”) And now
Alabamians should support him because he likes Mississippi catfish
as much the second time as he did the first time — however much
that is, which he didn’t actually make clear.
Meanwhile, very few other signs of the campaigns are
visible — literally. My wife and I drove around vast portions of
the southern half of Mobile County and the city itself on Sunday,
and saw not a single Gingrich yard sign, not a single Romney sign,
and only about three or four Santorum signs on private property
plus several at various public crossings.
It’s easy for people to underestimate the challenges of
running a lengthy primary-season campaign while living
hand-to-mouth for campaign funds and putting together public
appearances on the fly. This column is not meant as criticism, but
as pure observation: The process is brutal, and campaign officials
get almost no breaks — no weekends off, precious little sleep, and
very little time to plan events, much less messages, in
advance.
So who’s going to win today? Gingrich has the home-field
advantage with years of building political relationships in these
two states; Romney has the establishment and the money-bought
airwaves… and Santorum is scrambling to take advantage of any
openings he can find. Local endorsements, like the one that came
out Monday (in a private capacity, not as a university stance) from
Mark Foley, respected president of the Baptist-affiliated
University of Mobile, might help Santorum make up for the lack of
other advantages. (Disclosure: I have a “writer-in-residence”
affiliation with the university.)
In short, it’s anybody’s guess how it could turn out, with
the smart money being on narrow wins for either Romney or Gingrich,
but with Santorum needing only a last burst of speed to pass
them.
