An article I wrote in 2005 contained the following: “…
Unfortunately, no matter the appearance of any agreement that might
have been arrived at, Iran will not cease its efforts to become
capable of being armed with nuclear weapons.” Nothing has changed
since then, but the current White House insists on pretending that
Iran’s ambition can be restrained by actions short of destruction
of its nuclear development facilities.
It is as if no one on the National Security Council staff
— or anywhere else in the defense establishment, for that matter
— ever read or heard about the speech given in 1988 by Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani, then acting as commander of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (among other titles), that called for the
construction of a nuclear weapon. Furthermore, this announcement
had been approved by the late Imam Ruhollah Khomeini — an
important historical precedent.
Rafsanjani’s statement was certainly not a surprise to the
American intelligence establishment that had been tracking the
Iranian nuclear ambition since the previous decade when the Shah
Muhammed Reza Pahlevi was still in power. The Shah’s nuclear power
program was begun in the 1970s even though the country’s vast oil
and gas reserves were more than adequate to supply fuel for Iran’s
electrical power requirements for many generations to come. The
West German companies that originally were hired to build the first
nuclear power plant at Bushere warned that the site was located in
a known seismic fault area. Despite this warning, the project
continued on.
Western intelligence at the time firmly believed the
Shah’s vaunted nuclear power program would also provide cover for
his own longed-for nuclear weapon capability. The ancient Persian
dream of once again dominating the entire Middle East was then, as
it is now, firmly imbedded in the Iranian psyche. Bolstering this
broadly accepted opinion in modern Iran is the centuries old battle
in the region for Shia minority supremacy over the majority Sunni.
No matter which way one turns, the driving desire of Iranian
leadership of all stripes has been to see their country nuclear
armed.
It all seems so obvious it is a wonder that the Obama
Administration persists in the charade of appearing to think it can
stop or even inhibit Iran’s march toward obtaining nuclear weapons.
The nonpartisan Wisconsin Project on Nuclear
Arms Control has recently published a detailed report
utilizing qualifications and projections made available through the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This tracking indicates
a reasonable estimate of Iranian accumulation of 116kg of the
uranium isotope U-235 in its low enriched uranium hexafluoride
(UF-6).
It is generally assumed 21.6kg of U-235 is necessary for
the creation of a “first generation” implosion bomb. Again using
IAEA calculations of a reasonable performance of Iran’s existing
centrifuge evolution December 2008 through November 2011, Iran
would have accumulated enough U-235 for the weaponizing of five
implosion devices.
Some military analysts believe that the Iranians already
have acquired enough enriched uranium of a quality to create
several World War II Hiroshima-type basic nuclear bombs that can be
delivered by air or sea to Israel. In other words, the Iranian
military already is effectively nuclear-armed. What now awaits is
an even higher grade enrichment and the perfection of placing the
finished weapon on top of an adequate missile delivery
system.
There are those within the Iranian hierarchy who believe
it is tactically important to strike Israel before the Israelis
strike Iran. Effectively, therefore, both sides (Israel and Iran)
face the same fearful decision as to whether it is better (safer)
to strike first and absorb the counter-strike rather than wait for
the dubious advantage of being the injured party with a reduced
ability to counter.
It should be remembered that Iran wants the “credit” for
being the Islamic nation that is strongest against the continued
existence of Israel. That has been its principal propaganda theme
for the last thirty years. Just last month Iran’s Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei announced in a major speech: “The Zionist regime is
truly a cancerous tumor in this region and it must be, and will be,
cut out.” There doesn’t seem to be much ambiguity in that
statement, though Washington has made a considerable effort to
ignore the clear portent.
No one would suggest that the Iranian clerical leadership
lacks strategic awareness. On the contrary it would appear that
threatening declarations such as the one just made by Ayatollah
Khamenei are done with full awareness that the Israelis might
respond with a preemptive attack or the threat of such. And does
that not suggest that the Iranians must already have prepared
themselves to launch their own preemption?
It’s logical that in wanting to be the leading opponent of
an already nuclear-armed Israel, Iran would of necessity arm itself
appropriately. It seems obvious that means as long as Tehran
persists in threatening Israel, it must
develop its own parallel nuclear weapon capability. Does the
Administration really think further economic threats will divert
Iran from its self-proclaimed righteous path as the Great Shia
Savior opposing satanic Israel?
