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Loose Canons

Barry’s Phony Bluff

By on 3.5.12 @ 6:08AM

He can’t fool anyone most of the time, certainly not Iran or Israel.

When President Obama meets Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu today, he will have only two goals. He may succeed in one and will certainly fail in the other.

Obama’s goals are simple. First, to avoid a repeat of the televised lecture by Netanyahu immediately after the two met. Before Netanyahu’s arrival last year, Obama harshly criticized Israel and demanded peace talks based on the pre-1967 war borders with the Palestinians. In what was supposed to be a friendly televised chat after their Oval Office meeting, Netanyahu politely but firmly took Obama to school and bluntly rejected the 1967 baseline. It was a public relations disaster for Obama that he can prevent this time by just refusing another such event. He may even deny Netanyahu the side-by-side press conferences common to meetings with other nations’ leaders.

Second, Obama wants Israel to commit that it will not attack Iran this year. His administration has been frantically trying to persuade Israel to delay any attack, and has been met with quiet opposition and growing silence from the Israeli side.

Obama’s two goals are based only on avoiding damage to his campaign. If there is another public break with Israel or if — as is most likely — Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, Obama’s campaign will be distracted and damaged. Any resemblance between Obama’s goals and America’s national interest is purely coincidental.

Obama is playing for time. He wants the world’s nuclear cauldron — Iran, North Korea, Pakistan et al. — not to boil over before his election. That is the primary reason that we’ve — again — filled the North Korean begging bowl to cease nuclear production. This is, what, the third or fourth time we’ve done this? And this time, like every time before, we’ll deliver the bribes (fuel oil, food, whatever) which will be used to prop up the Norks’ regime, their people will continue to starve, and they will go on with their nuke program. But nothing will be noisy until after the election.

If only those noisy Israelis would go along and shut up for the rest of the year. But their interest in Obama’s campaign is less than their interest in national survival. Which is why, in Canada before coming here to meet Obama, Netanyahu warned against some new attempt at negotiations with Iran because they would just serve to give Iran more time to produce nuclear weapons.

Building up to today’s meeting, Team Obama has puffed and fumed. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey went so far as to say Iran is a “rational actor.” Indeed it is, but only in the sense of the Iranian theological “rationale.” Iran is governed by Shia “twelvers,” believers in a mystical “twelfth imam” whose return to earth will create a global Islamic paradise. And the “twelvers” — unique among the world’s religions - believe that an act of man can bring about the deity’s return to earth. Unfortunately, they believe that an apocalyptic event is the way to bring the twelfth imam back. This is a rationality that makes nuclear war a career objective for the “twelvers.”

Obama has been making noise about how tough and decisive he is on Iran. In a widely-reported interview with the Atlantic magazine, he said that we “have Israel’s back” and will destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program if economic sanctions don’t succeed.

Obama also said that, “I think that the Israeli government recognizes that, as president of the United States, I don’t bluff.” He went on, “I also don’t, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But I think both the Iranian and the Israeli governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say.”

Obama’s formulations are artful. He says that we would destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program if economic sanctions fail.

Obama’s “bluff” is open-ended. Sanctions have been tried against Iran for many years, and have had zero effect on its nuclear program. They can go on forever, giving Iran whatever time it needs to complete its nuclear development program. The regime has made its nuclear program a top national priority and isn’t going to give it up peacefully.

Obama wants to sound tough without committing himself to anything. The Iranians understand this. For eight years, George W. Bush said the same things: that for Iran to have nuclear weapons is unacceptable and that all options are on the table. But saying those words and actually trying to effectuate them as a policy are two different things. Both Bush and Obama said the words and did nothing to deny Iran’s nuclear progress. By repetition of words, passage of time, and inaction, two presidents have proven that we are willing to do nothing to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran and that, whatever options may be “on the table,” none that will be exercised will be the only thing that can work: extensive and intense military interdiction of Iran’s nuclear weapons development.

Obama now tells Iran not to call his bluff. What bluff? Obama has made no threat with a date certain for enforcement, only that someday, if economic sanctions “fail” will we take military action. That’s not a bluff, it’s barely a schoolyard taunt. It’s rhetorical, a campaign promise and nothing more. The only bluff Obama is running is to the American voters so that he can get through the election without doing anything about Iran (and a host of other war issues, especially Afghanistan).

There’s no hope of anything better from Obama. Which makes an Israeli attack on Iran not just inevitable but essential.

If Israel does not attack Iran soon, Obama — and Bush before him — will have gifted the mullahs with the time they needed to develop their nuclear arsenal. When they have done so, it is not only Israel that will be in mortal danger. So will we and every other nation that is a target Islamic terrorism. 

About the Author

Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush. He is the author of several bestselling books including Inside the Asylum and In the Words of Our Enemies. You can follow him on Twitter @jedbabbin.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (48) |

spike59| 3.5.12 @ 6:19AM

OF COURSE Obama has Israel's back; that's his favorite place to stick the knife

Von Mises Jr.| 3.5.12 @ 8:46AM

Well said Spike. In fact, just as Iran knows that talking will bargain them time, As Mr. Babbin clearly states: Israel knows that this is a suicide pact for them.
I would venture to say that we are hearing all this talk about Israel attacking Iran because the Obama regime is trying to get out in front of it. Israel must understand that four more years of Obama and they will be wiped off the face of the earth. So it is to their advantage to move now, not only stopping Iran, but foiling Obama's re-election.

Timothy L. Pennell| 3.5.12 @ 5:55PM

Yeah. The MUSLIM doesn't bluff.

He LIES.

He lies like a Prayer Rug, which, incidentally, he had back in the days in Indonesia, where, when he wasn't attending MADRASSA, or the MOSQUE, he was kneeling on it, facing Mecca, and preying to his God of Death to America, and Death to the Jews.

Ask HAMAS why they believe that he is THE DELIVERER.

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 8:29PM

Hey dumbo it's praying not preying. You spell Prayer right but not praying, that really takes a special person. Further proof that hatred for facts and love for Mitt Romney makes you demonstrably stupider.

Vince| 3.6.12 @ 2:42AM

jcrew...is the kool aid wearing off ? You are sounding 'stupider' to use your word.

Alan Brooks| 3.5.12 @ 8:43PM

Oh so Iran is more important than subsidized contraception at law school? are you SURE?
I mean the top articles of Monday are about Rush and... his... apology...
Never mind! geez, how pettifogging you guys are.

Appleby| 3.5.12 @ 6:48AM

Obama is pulling the same stunt that Premier McGuilty of Ontario pulled: he is building up a teetering tower that he hopes will last until the election results are in, at which time it will fall on the Republican President-elect, who will have to solve it (and will) and will be blamed by the Democrats unceasingly until the next election when they will take over again.

For Premier McGuinty the ploy failed -- the Toronto Socialists put him into a minority government position and the whole tower fell on top of him. If Israel doesn't act quickly, and if Mitt is the nominee, Obama is going to end up in the same position. Has he thought even once what would happen then?

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 3:23PM

Am I missing something here? Since when has Toronto been relevant in any discussion? Time to join the big leagues Junior.

jstwndring| 3.5.12 @ 6:35PM

"Am I missing something here? Since when has Toronto been relevant in any discussion? Time to join the big leagues Junior."

You must indeed be short if that analogy went soaring so far over your head.

Juan Jose Morales-Castillo | 3.5.12 @ 6:40PM

Ever since I watched how Joe Clark accomplished in nine months the kind of chaos that the Nonentity from Plains accomplished in four years I have been very interested in the politics of Canada. Please tell me the details of that Premier's story, which sounds killingly interesting.

John786| 3.5.12 @ 7:16AM

The irrationality of the 12ver Shia vs rationality! of the American end timers & the Zionist - god gave us this land. We may be in for some fireworks. I caution against it.

Ken (Old Texican)| 3.5.12 @ 8:06AM

786 Mohammed
Netanyahu is a serious man. Further, he has spies all over Iran. He will know precisely when he must strike...and where.

You know, everyone forgets the Israeli submarines. They have the throw-weight to cripple the entire Iranian air-defense system...non nuclear. Those submarines are on station as I write.

.....and if and when Israel pre-empts...they will have to go for the juglar to survive.
They will do what they have to do.

Saddam was a paper tiger as the Iraq wars proved. Israel is certainly not.

If that little dip-shit comes out of his well he will get his head blown off.

Al Adab| 3.5.12 @ 2:54PM

John,
You are correct about the danger posed by the twelvers. They are more extreme than the pre-millenials who generally are not trying to bring it about. That is why I don't consider the Iranian regime to be a rational one. Launching nukes at a neighbor or at the US would not be a rational act. Too often through history we have seen tyrants pursue power for its own sake and destruction as a pleasure.

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 3:54PM

I think in the fairy tales it says God made the earth, he never actually gave it to you. Nice job thinking you are somehow entitled to land just because you happened to be born there. It will be around much longer than you or any country. Sorry to destroy your entire belief system, you'll thank me one day I'm sure of it.

jstwndring| 3.5.12 @ 6:41PM

And, just as in your previous post, you completely miss the point of the person you are attempting to mock. Your towering intellect is a wonder to gaze upon. Try reading for comprehension. You'll look less a fool.

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 8:22PM

No, I got her point, she is completely detached from anything approaching reality. That's why this little lady makes up things like Shia 12ver and other ridiculous stuff to scare herself and others. Put down the Nostradamus and pick up a book on grammar. Oh and intellect is not something that can be seen so good luck gazing at it. Get a clue Alex Trebek.

jstwndring| 3.6.12 @ 1:11AM

Really? Read it again. He is arguing against religious zealotry on both sides, not, for it.

As for your intellect (or, lack thereof), you put your ignorance proudly on display with every word you type here. It is rare that I see someone so uninformed on virtually every single topic being discussed and yet so eager to put that ignorance on full display. That indicates someone lacking in intelligence.

Filthy Reeking 666| 3.5.12 @ 8:23PM

The land God has blessed me with being on has been used by my dog. My dog, named Baal, has left filthy reeking piles of muhammads all over the place. I will scoop up and bury all the filty reeking piles of muhammad in a hole in the ground. It would be irrational to throw caution to the wind and leave these filty reeking piles of muhammad around for people to step in. For some reason it seems like these filthy reeking piles of muhammad are left by a diseased pig with fireworks going off in its diseased innards, and that there is at least 666 of these filthy reeking piles of seemingly diseased pig muhammad to bury, if not 786.

PCC| 3.5.12 @ 7:24AM

More warmongering. Haven't we had enough of it for now? Have we learned nothing from the disastrous Afghanistan/Pakistan/Iraq adventures that have cost so much blood and treasure? No doubt those who share Mr. Babbin's views have a long list of reserve candidates for more bombing after they've had their way with Iran. War without end, Amen.

Ken (Old Texican)| 3.5.12 @ 8:17AM

PCC,
Warmongerer my butt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When a rabid dog gets you in his sights...you put him down...Hitler...Stalin...North Korea...Saddam...now the mullahs.

Yessir...it is war without end...until Jesus comes again...or unless we cower and bend over.

PCC| 3.5.12 @ 9:28AM

Bomb, bomb, bomb,
Bomb, bomb Iran!

Ted| 3.5.12 @ 2:08PM

Okay, PCC. Fair enough points. At the same time, it's easy to criticize. Now, how do you propose dealing with the Iranians and their quest for a nuclear bomb? Burying your head in the sand and saying they are peace loving mullahs won't work. It just means that you will end up with glass all around your head.

Al Adab| 3.5.12 @ 2:46PM

My wife, wise and imaginative women that she is (although sometimes I worry about her selection of husbands) suggests that the best solution - and John you will like this one - is to load up the B-52 fleet with surplus pork bellies and drop them on Natanz and the other sites. That would take care of the program.

Al Adab| 3.5.12 @ 2:58PM

OOPS, singular woman, one wife not four.

BTW, what was wrong with the site access this AM?

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 3:39PM

While we're at it let's load up some fetuses and dump them on Catholic churches. Oh man I just love disrespecting peoples' beliefs just because they happen to live on this plot of land as opposed to another. Your depth of thought on international matter is truly amazing and a testament to the Christian "Academy" that educated you.

jstwndring| 3.5.12 @ 6:50PM

"Your depth of thought on international matter is truly amazing....."

As is yours. Apparently, you are completely oblivious to the daily and weekly threats of genocide that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has directed toward Israel. It must be nice to so easily ignore the truth in an effort to justify the rise of yet another Hitler--this one holding a Koran.

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 8:14PM

Oh no some Iranian quack made a threat, go run and hide! The sky is falling right on the intellectual powerhouse of a peanut you call a brain. Maybe you should try not wetting your little breeches every time you feel the least bit threatened. It would go miles towards helping out that inferiority complex you have> Not that you're not inferior but maybe then you might get some sleep at night.

jstwndring| 3.6.12 @ 1:16AM

Thank you, for proving my point. Again, you fail to address the topic at hand and instead, engage in some nonsensical rant pretending a very real threat to the only democracy in the middle-east doesn't exist. Three cheers in support of the little tyrant in Iran, right?

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 3:50PM

North Korea is not a person, it's a country. Too bad you didn't play more Carmen San Diego in Elementary School. Or did they have school in the compound? What if a rabid dog doesn't have you in his sights but is kind of close to you? Or maybe the dog has your dog in his sights? If only I could pick that big old brain of yours my friend and fellow countryman.

jim olson| 3.5.12 @ 4:19PM

Rabid dog? do you mean Bibi?

Ward Bond| 3.5.12 @ 9:48PM

Ken, it's too bad there is such evil in the world but there is. When you meet up with a rabid skunk you don't feel sorry for it, you don't worry about its babies, you don't worry about the bloody mess you're going to make,you kill it before it gets you or your family.

RJ| 3.5.12 @ 7:59AM

Facing the most difficult crisis in the Middle East since 1973 with Barry at the helm. God Help us. America is a war-weary country, but whether we want any part of it or not, I fear we will be dragged into it.

cali| 3.6.12 @ 7:28AM

Exactly!
Mr. Babbin - nicely stated!
For Obama it's all about his campaign; he doesn't give a fig about Israel; he rather will throw Israel under the bus if he is re-elected. All of his promises have expiration dates.
Bibi has a responsibility to protect his people in Israel; he can't count on the current admin to do anything; if Obama were serious he would have assisted the iranian people during their uprising in 2009 and, we wouldn't be in the current situation.
It is far more likely for Bibi to strike against Iran before the election-his only chance to even make a dent in Iran's nuclear capabilities, there won't be another one, if Obummer is re-elected.
On the other hand, I want to believe that he will lose, and we have a repub;ican administration, which could be only good for Israel.
What Obummer forgets is this:
"I will bless those who stand with Israel, I will condemn those who go against Israel"!
This is not a threat, but a promise by God.

jaytrain| 3.5.12 @ 8:14AM

Enough warmongering !! Let Obama demonstrate his bona fides with real action . Destroy this onwe oil refinery the mullahs depend on . Or declare PG coastline a no-go zone for 10 miles back from the water . Either one would add only a couple hundred martyrs to paradise and the world would know that Obama is serious . Simple clean and effective , but never gonna happen , so the mullahs will get their nuke and Barry will run home to Hawaii and hide like the coward that he is .

Jason Merrifield| 3.5.12 @ 8:46AM

I encourage everyone to read the article listed below. If true, our President knows fully well that Iran is well on the way to producing a nuclear weapon and he is doing nothing to stop it. The sanctions have not stopped Iran and will not stop Iran. If America will not act then a nation that rose from the Holocaust where six million Jews were murdered of which one million were children will act against the terrorist State of Iran. Obama seems to believe that the Iranians can be contained and will behave rationally. Iran sent 100,000 children to their deaths clearing minefields in their war with Iraq. Any country that is willing to sacrifice 100,000 children is not a rational country. Iran will use a bomb and give terrorists a bomb unless they are stopped. Obama is also caving into the terrorist State of North Korea. Enough of the "I'm the guy who got Bin Ladin." Allowing the mullahs of Iran to have a nuclear weapon on your watch Mr. President will make the entire Middle East a catastrophe. If you won't act Netanyahu will and Israel will never again allow the genocide of the Jewish people. For any critics of this post, I am not Jewish and I am a practicing and observant Catholic.

http://debka.com/article/21794/

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 3:32PM

You have completely lost your mind. Maybe you should get out and play some Frisbee Golf or something. If Obama is going to cause Armageddon you might as well enjoy yourself a little bit. If his numbers don't stay up it will definitely be going down before November.

jim olson| 3.5.12 @ 4:44PM

You also forgot to tell the readers that you pull "facts" out of your nether regions and have no clue what your talking about.

nathan| 3.6.12 @ 8:31AM

Jason, the reports vary on what Iran has and what they intend to do. Credible intelligence says they're two years away from having any weapons and that the leadership hasn't decided they want them. And no published report suggests that any attack can meaningfully disrupt those underground facilities. They are buried so deep and dispersed so widely and there are so many of them that any attack(s) would at most set any programs back about a year at most and probably make an undecided leadership decide in favor if they haven't decided.

Recall if you will that in the war against Iraq we backed Sadam. That cost them 500,000 people. It's not completely irrational for them to want to ensure that another war like that doesn't take place again. But also remember that in 1953 Eisenhower engineered a coup against the democratically elected prime minister Mossedegh, who had not harmed us, not threatened us. This was purely about oil. We used thugs to install a kleptomaniac human rights violating thug, the shah, and help keep him in power for several decades. Doing coups against other governments are acts of war, in this case clearly an unprovoked one. We weren't the good guys here.

We hear continuously about the dangers muslims pose to Jews, how barbaric they are, how uncivilized they are, how . . . . fill in the blanks. And yet, in the last 1200 whatever years of islam's total take all they did, take all the outrages combined anywhere in the world, and it doesn't come close to what people who were "nominally" Christians did in six short years. The people who built those camps in Poland, who were the guards weren't muslims. "Good" French Catholics pushed their Jews onto the trains for Auschwitz and were happy to do so. Poland, another Catholic country had to admit to a massacre that was purely Polish. And the Holocaust doesn't even take into account centuries of abuse such as we see in Fiddler On The Roof. Again these were Christians basing their actions in part on the doctrine of "deicide" not repealed by the Church until after the Holocaust, imagine, Pius during the Holocaust wouldn't renounce deicide, these good Christians abused Jews long before islam showed up.

If the muslims hated the Jews so much why were there any in Jerusalem to kill when the "noble" Crusaders entered the city. Note they did kill everyone there, Jews and muslims. During the centuries of the Inquisition where were Jews safer, in "Christian" Europe, or in areas controlled by those horrible muslims? In the middle east of course.

You sir need to approach this with more understand and a sense of humility. Westerners can be barbaric (ask the blacks in the south and the Indians whom we massacred and more or less committed genocide against) and up until recently have been. And still are. Ask the Canadian we sent to the middle east to be tortured. Even if he was innocent. What was so "civilized" and rational about that?

Bibi can have his bad moments too. This Stephen Decatur attitude towards him needs to stop. Years ago Israel laid a plaque commemorating the bombing of the King David Hotel. The plaque was in honor of the two Irgun members, terrorists, who died in the attack. The British who lost 120 some civilians in the terrorists assault, were not amused. The Israelis show time and time again like electing a terrorist as prime minister (Begin) that they don't particularly hate terrorism (they gave financial support to Hamas early on) they just hate certain terrorists. I mean there's credible evidence they carried out false flag exercises against us. Caution here is definitely in order.

shipley130| 3.5.12 @ 2:04PM

Obama doesn't want to take the time to have to pay attention to a war between Israel and Iran during campaign donation season. Oh wait, that is all the time in Obamaland.

jcrew| 3.5.12 @ 3:43PM

I would be remiss if I did not point out that "Oh wait" is usually followed by something clever, thought provoking and/or insightful. Your statement not only failed to meet the criteria, it somehow swallowed any dignity the writer may have deluded himself into having up to that point. See you at the piano bar Liberace.

jim olson| 3.5.12 @ 4:47PM

Clever troll is very clever, my congratulations, but still.......................................................

jim olson| 3.5.12 @ 4:51PM

It is clear from this essay that Mr. Babbin has lost whatever access he formerly had to the center of power, since his description of what is, Ain't.

Occam's Tool| 3.5.12 @ 6:33PM

The Israelis are probably going to take the Iranians out this year. Military Repercussions: minimal. Diplomatic depends on how tough Bummer wants to get in an election year with unemployment over 9%.

Clint| 3.5.12 @ 7:38PM

" On the surface, of course, there is apparent evidence for such a thesis. Israel has talked about attacking Iran and, objectively, one can make a case for such an operation. Yet any serious consideration of this scenario – based on actual research and real analysis rather than what the uninformed assemble in their own heads – is this: It isn’t going to happen.

Indeed, the main leak from the government, by an ex-intelligence official who hates Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, has been that Israel has already decided not to attack Iran. He says that he worries this might change in the future but there’s no hint that this has happened or will happen. Defense Minister Ehud Barak has publicly denied plans for an imminent attack as have other senior government officials.

Of course, one might joke that the fact that Israeli leaders talk about attacking Iran is the biggest proof that they aren’t about to do it. But Israel, like other countries, should be subject to rational analysis.

So why are Israelis talking about a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities? Because that’s a good way – indeed, the only way Israel has – to pressure Western countries to work harder on the issue, to increase sanctions and diplomatic efforts. If policymakers believe that somehow pushing Tehran into slowing down or stopping its drive toward nuclear weapons is the only alternative to war, that greatly concentrates their minds."

Brian White| 3.5.12 @ 8:39PM

Obama doesn't have the guts to stand with Israel on any subject.
He is a weak, self-centered, unqualified narcissist that must be defeated in November.
THEN the real vetting of this man-child can begin.

After the post-presidency investigation is through, Obama will be lucky to have the price of a pack of Kools left.

The Bruce| 3.5.12 @ 11:01PM

Yep, that "executive privilege" crap only works for sitting president, not ex-presidents.

POST American| 3.5.12 @ 10:23PM

----------------'RA--dick---CULL' change--------------

------or is it 'RA' ---dick----ALL'?

YOU DECIDE

danshanteal| 3.6.12 @ 3:15PM

Obama couldn't even make the first squad of the basketball team in high school. What can you expect from a guy like that?

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