The Chinese do not appoint a president so much as anoint him.
The recent process began in 2007 when the new nine-man Politburo
Standing Committee was formed. After five years of observation, the
next president was chosen from this body. His front runner status
was never in doubt, but it was also never assured. The actual
settlement did not come until recently with the public recognition
of Xi Jinping’s transition to the top spot to replace Hu Jintao by
the end of 2012 as the country’s president, head of the military
and the party. This man will be China’s new CEO. The seemingly neat
evolution was the product of years of behind-the-scenes, sometimes
vicious machinations among the nation’s power brokers.
In divining the future of the People’s Republic of China,
analysts tend to focus on the character and background of the
people chosen to assume the top leadership positions of the
government and party. This is currently the case as the designated
president, Xi Jinping, has visited major world capitals in an
introductory tour prior to becoming Hu Jintao’s replacement later
this year. The problem is that very little is known about him other
than the biographical material made available by the official
sources.
Much has been made of the prospective president’s lineage
as the son of Xi Zhengxun, one of Mao Tse-tung’s followers during
the famous “Long March,” and who became the youngest vice premier
in Mao’s cabinet in the 1950s. From that sterling revolutionary
beginning the Xi family fell into disfavor during the Cultural
Revolution and the father was sent to prison while the young
Jinping, we are told, spent the next six years on a remote farm
until he was 21. By today’s standards these are excellent post-Mao
credentials. Mao’s death and the ascendancy of Deng Xiaoping
completely changed the family’s fortunes, as the elder Xi returned
to active Communist Party life as party secretary in Guandong
province.
While the young Jinping was attaining a degree in
engineering from the prestigious Tsinghua University, his father
was a member of the Deng inner circle that was responsible for the
creation of Shenzen, the special economic zone that launched the
new period of what would become the “Chinese way” of market
economics. This placed the Xi family in the vanguard of new
economic thinking that controversially is now called “liberal
reform.” What is the most important selling point for Westerners is
the action Xi Jinping’s father in 1989. The elder Xi opposed the
military assault in Tiananmen Square and subsequently was forced
into retirement as a result.
The question arises whether, and how much, these personal
family experiences will actually matter. The nearly 59-year-old Xi
Jinping above all must be considered in the broader context of
China as an export-driven modernizing nation and a Chinese
Communist Party whose nine-member standing committee of the
politburo is the true ruling body.
There is also the determinant role of the People’s
Liberation Army (PLA) as Xi Jinping’s personal power base. While
serving as provincial leader in Zhejiang, Jinping made a point of
revitalizing the contacts he had made during his earlier uniformed
stint as aide de camp to Defense Minister Geng Biao. The PLA is a
political force in itself, but over the last thirty years it — and
its ranking officers — has gained considerable economic and
commercial influence through widely-based ownership and control of
property, trading, and manufacturing companies. It is clear that
Jinping has carefully maintained and nurtured his military
connections to good effect.
Just as important in social/political terms is Jinping’s
second wife, the nationally famous singer of patriotic songs, Peng
Liyuan, who is said to hold an official rank of major general in
the PLA. Xi Jinping has filled in all the political boxes,
including having gained — or achieved by his work experience — a
doctorate in Marxist theory and ideological education. This
“academic” credit is a valuable addition to his formal party
résumé.
In contrast to the current president, Jinping is
consistently referred to as “personable” by foreigners who have met
him. As reported by State Department leaked dispatches, Jinping at
an early age decided to gain political protection by becoming
recognized as a party loyalist of the first order. Good humor and
consistent pragmatism clearly have smoothed his way to acceptance
within the Chinese Communist hierarchy.
Xi Jinping’s party credentials have allowed this member of
the highest social strata in China to march steadily up the Chinese
Communist Party’s post-Mao path to success. During Xi Jinping’s
recent White House visit, public relations advisers from both sides
used every arrow in their quiver to project a positive image. They
even emphasized his over six foot height along with his tennis
playing, love of American films, and a daughter attending Harvard.
It all may be true but really mean little if anything about how
Jinping will govern.
Certainly this future president of China has allowed
nothing to stand in the way of his getting ahead. One only can
expect the same dedication to success in Xi Jinping’s period as
primus inter pares among the Chinese leadership. It is not
unreasonable to assume he will continue to provide justification
for the growth of China’s military, whether it’s its space and
missile program or its effort to build a combat-ready blue water
navy.
In the end Xi Jinping can and will be judged only by what
occurs during his presidency, which under his predecessor has
included, among other things: intelligence operations to penetrate
U.S. cyber systems (civilian and military); placing the South China
Sea under PRC domination; support for Iran’s unfettered nuclear
development; vetoes in the UN Security Council on motions to
intervene in Syria; refusal to accurately revalue China’s currency,
and so on. If such issues are approached differently during the
presidency of Xi Jinping, he will come to hold a unique position in
China’s global relations. However, his biography notwithstanding,
it would be a major surprise both to China and to the
world.
