On one hand, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s win in
Michigan was not by a wide margin. On the other hand, it was a much
bigger and more important victory than former Senator Rick
Santorum’s supporters, other than perhaps the clear-eyed
Stacy McCain, let on. The most important question, however, is
whether Romney’s Michigan victory will translate into momentum on
Super Tuesday, in particular in the key state of Ohio.
Following the results in Michigan, Rick Santorum’s betting
odds (at intrade.com) of
becoming the Republican nominee fell from almost 12 percent to
under 7 percent, with Romney’s odds moving back above the 80
percent threshold to about 82 percent. (Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul
are each trading around 3 percent.)
Mitt Romney beat Rick Santorum in Michigan by just over 3
percent, at 41 percent to 38 percent, with Ron Paul coming in third
at 11.6 percent and Newt Gingrich fourth with 6.5
percent.
The Santorum spin, as
Quin Hillyer dutifully put forward, will be that Romney had to
spend a lot of time and money to win his home state by only three
percent, and that the two will probably split the state’s 30
delegates evenly.
This line of argument, while factual, masks a very bad
night for Santorum and a big victory for Romney.
For about 10 days, until less than a week ago, Santorum
led Romney in the RealClearPolitics
average of polls of Michigan primary with an edge between 5 and
9 percent for most of that time and a few individual polls showing
advantages of 9, 10, and 15 points.
To lose a lead this big in a week is surprising even in a
primary season as chaotic as this one, particularly following the
recent Santorum trifecta of victories in Colorado, Missouri, and
Minnesota which added some octane to his electoral fuel.
Nearly as important as the fact that Santorum lost after
having that lead is that he lost despite appealing to Democrat
voters. Not only did Santorum target a “get out and vote against
Romney”
robo-call to Democrats — a fact that will certainly be used
against Santorum by Romney and others in future contests — but
Democratic strategists and radio show hosts also encouraged
their fellow party members to vote for Santorum.
According to
ABC News, “About 10 percent of the state’s primary voters on
Tuesday were Democrats, exit polls show. And they voted
overwhelmingly for Santorum, with 53 percent picking the former
senator versus the 17 percent who chose Romney.”
Romney will point out that if only Republicans had voted
in the Republican primary, his margin of victory would
have been more than twice as large, at around 7 percent.
Santorum will argue that his getting Democrat votes shows
that he is electable in the general election. But nobody should (or
will) believe that line. Most Democrats supported Santorum because
they’re trying to damage Romney whom they consider to be more
likely to beat President Obama in November, and because they’re
trying to cause chaos within the GOP race.
One Democratic strategist interviewed on CNN said, “We are
turning [Democrats] out and feel we can provide a massive jolt and
scare to the GOP establishment here in the state and in Washington,
D.C. When we are done they’ll be taking Pepto Bismol by the gallon
at the RNC.”
Again, the significant participation of Democrats trying
to derail Romney is a major talking point going forward for Romney
who, despite the Democrat mischief, actually took a higher
percentage of Michigan primary voters than he did in
2008.
The big question for Mitt Romney, then, is whether he has
Michigan Momentum, or whether Super Tuesday, less than a week away
on March 6, will provide just the latest mile of the political
rumble strip we’ve been driving over for two months.
The Super Tuesday states, which account for 437 delegates,
in order of their total delegate count, are: Georgia (76), Ohio
(66), Tennessee (58), Virginia (49), Oklahoma (43), Massachusetts
(41), Idaho (32), North Dakota (28), Alaska (27), and Vermont
(7).
Among states with at least 40 delegates, Newt Gingrich is
likely to win his home state of Georgia, and Virginia is a safe
Romney win with only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul on the ballot there.
Rick Santorum’s leads in Tennessee and Oklahoma — notwithstanding
that no lead feels safe in 2012 — are likely to hold up, with
recent polls putting him ahead of Romney by about 20 percent in
each state. Romney’s largest margin of victory of the primary
season will likely come in Massachusetts, where polls have him
leading Rick Santorum by roughly 45 percent.
Polling data is scarce in small states, though Romney is
likely to win Idaho because of that state’s large Mormon population
(estimated at 23 percent of the state.)
Of the top three Super Tuesday states, Gingrich and
Santorum each seem to have one in hand. Therefore, Ohio, as the
only truly competitive large Super Tuesday state, is a critical win
for Mitt Romney. It is particularly so because of its pivotal
“swing state” role in the general election.
No Republican has ever taken the presidential oath of
office without winning Ohio in the general election. (Democrats
have done it twice: FDR in 1944 and JFK in 1960.) Winning the
primary election in Ohio, giving that state’s voters a greater
rooting interest in a candidate’s future general election success,
is the brass ring that Santorum and Romney will be reaching for
next Tuesday.
Michigan and Ohio border each other and are similar states
economically and demographically. Each state has a slight
Democratic edge over Republicans in voter registration, though Ohio
leans slightly less Democratic, has a smaller proportion of union
members, and holds a much less favorable view of
Barack Obama than Michigan does. They are each heavily industrial
states with Catholics making up about 20 percent of the
population.
Rick Santorum has been leading the RealClearPolitics
average of polls in the Buckeye State since Feb 13, though the
number of polls has been small.
The most recent poll in Ohio,
taken during late February when Santorum was riding high in surveys
across the nation, showed Santorum with an 11 point lead over
Romney, at 37 percent to 26 percent. But with the election only a
week away, the candidates’ support is exceedingly soft: “Nearly
half (47%) of Republican primary voters say they may change their
mind between now and Election Day.”
In betting odds to win the Republican contest in Ohio,
Romney has been holding above the 50 percent mark for most of
the past week, other than a brief dip going into the Michigan
contest, after trading closer to 40 percent during the middle of
the month when Santorum’s popularity was at its recent peak.
Similarly, Santorum’s current
odds in Ohio, around 46 percent, are essentially identical to
his odds for most of the past week, despite his loss in
Michigan.
Romney’s Ohio betting odds hovering above 50 percent
despite being down in recent polls mirror the Michigan betting
pattern, where his odds stayed near 50 percent even when polls
showed Rick Santorum with a double-digit lead less than a week
before the vote. The bettors knew better.
Voters like supporting a winner, so Mitt Romney’s Michigan
victory is extremely important going into the critical Ohio race.
While Romney only won Michigan by 3 percent, among Republicans he
won by nearly 7 percent. Rick Santorum’s appealing to Democrats
should turn off many GOP voters in coming contests; Romney’s
characterization of Santorum’s move as a desperate “dirty trick”
will ring true.
In Ohio, only Republicans can vote in the Republican
primary, although voters can change their party
affiliation at the polling place so today’s Democrats can be
tomorrow’s Republicans and vote in the GOP contest.
Unlike in Michigan, Democratic voting in the Republican
primary will probably not be a significant factor in Ohio for two
reasons: First, Rick Santorum won’t spend money on
Democrat-targeted calls and ads after having done it once at
substantial political cost and without substantial electoral
benefit. It remains to be seen whether Democrat activists and media
will try for another “Operation
Hilarity” in Ohio, given their modest success in Michigan;
bloggers certainly will since the cost of asking a voter
to switch parties is zero. Second, Ohio voters may only change
party affiliation going into a “partisan primary” election, meaning
that any Democrat who switches to become a Republican is stuck with
GOP registration for at least two years, something few Democrats
may be willing to do.
Although it may be an impossibly high hurdle to clear, the
candidates will be highly incentivized to try to capture 50 percent
of the vote in Ohio as that is one of a handful of states which
only has proportional delegate allocation if no candidate reaches
that threshold, but allocates winner-take-all should someone win an
outright majority. (The same rule applies in Oklahoma, which may
give Mr. Romney reason to campaign more in that state than one
might expect where an opponent has such a commanding
lead.)
If there’s anything that might make Mitt Romney think a
big Ohio victory is possible, it is having some Michigan Momentum.
Does he have it, or will the big wave behind him crash yet again on
the breakwater of conservative doubts? We’ll find out next
Tuesday.
