TROY, Michigan — The state’s top elected Republican officials
took their turns on the stage of the Royal Oak Music Theatre: Lt.
Gov. Brian Calley, Attorney General Bill Schuette and finally Gov.
Rick Snyder, who introduced the man the crowd had come to see, Mitt
Romney. Wearing jeans and a navy blazer, Romney spoke for about 12
minutes, giving a variation of his standard stump speech, quoting
the lyrics of “America the Beautiful” and the Declaration of
Independence.
“I happen to believe that if we want to have a strong
economy and good private-sector jobs, it helps to have a president
who’s had a private-sector job,” the former Massachusetts governor
said, drawing cheers from more than 500 supporters in attendance in
Royal Oak, a suburb of Detroit. Romney said his arguments for
strengthening the economy are “the reason that I can defeat Barack
Obama in Michigan in the fall.”
Before he can do that, of course, Romney must first show
he can win Michigan in February and, on the eve of Tuesday’s GOP
primary here, that proposition was still very much in doubt. While
Romney has recovered from the slump that had him trailing by double
digits in his native state two weeks ago, the
latest polls show the longtime Republican
frontrunner barely leading Rick Santorum. (One
late poll even showed Santorum with a slight lead.)
While Romney has outspent his Republican rival here and has
deployed his professional campaign staff effectively, the intensity
of the fight in Michigan has exceeded what anyone would have
predicted a month ago. In 2008, Romney defeated John McCain here by
an 80,000-vote margin, and Michigan was widely expected to be a
“safe” state for Romney this time around.
Michigan isn’t safe because Santorum has appealed to the
state’s blue-collar voters and religious conservatives, including
his fellow Catholics who may account for as many as one-third of
votes cast in Tuesday’s primary. In a
Wall Street Journal op-ed column
Monday, Santorum outlined his economic plan, which especially
emphasizes the need to revive America’s manufacturing sector in
industrial “Rust Belt” states like Michigan. Despite a widely
criticized debate performance last week in Arizona, and despite a
number of controversies that have generated national headlines,
Santorum has stood up under the fire of Romney’s attack ads in
Michigan in a way that Newt Gingrich was unable to do in Iowa or
Florida. During a Monday appearance in Lansing, Santorum dismissed
as a “joke” Romney’s ad campaign against him and told a crowd of
about 200 supporters, “Michigan, you have an opportunity to stop
that joke.”
On the eve of the primary, there was much talk of mischief
in Michigan. Santorum’s campaign has repeatedly asserted that
Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul have been strategically cooperating
against him, a charge given credence by an
analysis that found Paul had repeatedly attacked
Romney’s rivals during debates, but never attacked Romney. Monday,
the accusation of shenanigans was aimed at Santorum’s campaign,
which
used automated “robocalls” to target Democratic
voters with anti-Romney messages. Michigan has an “open”
primary law, meaning that independents and Democrats can vote in
the Republican primary, and many
Democrats have talked of crossing over to vote for
Santorum, whom they consider an easier opponent for Obama than
Romney.
Have the Democrats miscalculated? If the more moderate
Romney is really a stronger candidate, why has he struggled to
close the deal with voters of his own party here in his native
Michigan? It hardly adds to Romney’s “electability” argument that
— even with the backing of Michigan’s top Republican officials —
he would consider himself fortunate to escape Tuesday with 40
percent of the vote and a narrow win over Santorum’s low-budget
campaign. Even if Romney wins Michigan, one of Santorum’s top
advisers
told CNN Monday, “We have already won. No matter
what the results are, we’ve won. This is Romney’s home state.… The
Romney campaign is spending a fortune they never expected to spend
in Michigan, and every dollar they spend in Michigan is a dollar
they don’t have on Super Tuesday.”
The outcome of the primaries on Super Tuesday — a week
from today, on March 6 — will likely be influenced by perceptions
of today’s vote in Michigan. That is especially true of neighboring
Ohio, where Santorum has already begun campaigning. But while it
might be considered a symbolic victory for Santorum merely to come
close to beating Romney in Michigan, an actual upset win for
Santorum would be a major breakthrough for the 2012 campaign’s
longtime underdog. Speaking to his supporters Monday in Lansing,
Santorum made clear how high the stakes are.
“Tomorrow’s the big day. It could be a game-changing day,”
Santorum told the audience, remarking that Michigan has in recent
years tried to move its primary to earlier in the presidential
campaign schedule. “Well, you’ve moved to the right place this
time. You have a chance to be the inflection point in this race.
Don’t miss the opportunity to stand up, and don’t pay attention to
those who say, ‘Oh, we can’t elect someone who’s too conservative.
We need to appeal to moderate voters.’ They said the same thing
about Ronald Reagan. … It’s no wonder why all the Democrats and all
the political experts are saying, ‘Oh, you can’t nominate Santorum,
he’ll be a disaster. Ha ha ha.’” Santorum paused, then said, “He
who laughs last, laughs best.”
Whether Santorum or Romney will be laughing Tuesday night
is a decision that now rests, not with experts, pundits or
pollsters, but with the voters of Michigan.
