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Special Report
Bashar’s ‘Iron Fist’
After two weeks of shock and awe, Syria’s opposition remains intact. Will Assad’s army do likewise?
The iron fist against “terrorist gangs” as promised by Bashar Assad got off to a fairly impressive start two weeks ago. Homs — the Benghazi of the Syrian rebels — has been subjected to massive and sustained shelling for days, causing hundreds of fatalities among the defenders. With the fist heading for its third week, however, the spectacular artillery barrages seem to have delivered little.
This is not the first time during the uprising that the Syrian army has stormed urban areas. In July and August, the army recaptured Hama, Deir ez Zor, and Latakia after these had been taken over by crowds of protesters reinforced by army defectors.
However, while it took the Syrian army approximately five days to regain control of Hama and two days to take Deir ez Zor, Latakia turned into a drawn out battle that lasted several days. Homs was shelled, but an all out assault failed to follow.
October 26, 2011. Panic in Homs as the army strikes.
This time Homs is clearly the primary objective. But once again the shelling failed to be backed by meaningful advances of ground forces. Whatever the reason the Syrian army is always struggling in Homs, by now, the death tolls in Homs have dropped to the low dozens as many locals have apparently fled the city. Large chunks of Homs have become ghost towns populated primarily by insurgents and a particularly hardened version of local residents. The “shock and awe” effect of the first days is fading away as the remaining population is getting used to the daily bombardment. “We are safe. They can’t hit here,” said a local guide to a BBC reporter as shells and mortars were falling all around.
February 6, 2012. Defiance in Homs in the face of heavy barrage.
Elsewhere, according to Reuters, many opposition centers have been transformed into a bunch of mini-Homs and half-Homs. All of them seem to be subjected to the same kind of artillery siege and blockade, but Zabadani was apparently the only prominent opposition stronghold to fall into the regime’s hands until now. An attack on Rastan was repelled. A CNN reporter, who traveled to Northern Syria, found much of its countryside under the control of the opposition; and while the fighters are waiting for Bashar’s tanks to appear in force every moment, these are yet to come. In fact, the situation may be no better in other parts of Syria, but many areas are harder to reach for reporters (the Idlib province in the north is adjacent to Turkey).
There is an obvious danger for the regime in projecting weakness for so long. Many Sunni soldiers are deterred from switching sides only by the perception that the regime is strong enough to defeat the rebels. Failure to take over Homs anytime soon is likely to trigger an avalanche of defections. Homs is a must now. It’s become the bare minimum for the survival of the regime.
This is not to say that the opposite is true, as throughout this uprising the rebels have demonstrated a high ability to recover and re-infiltrate lost areas. Some besieged towns were repeatedly reported to have already been brought under the regime’s control in the past. For example, this is the second time the army is storming Rastan.
Large chunks of Syria, including the cradle of the revolution in Deraa, are part of a massive tribal belt stretching from the Persian Gulf across several countries in the region, with Bedouin tribes reportedly at the forefront of the armed resistance in many areas. The tribal dimension of the uprising makes for a curious historical analogy. Bashar’s situation is beginning to resemble the military campaign waged by the Emperor Tiberius’ adopted son Germanicus in 15-6 CE, who unsuccessfully tried to subdue under Roman rule the German tribes that lived beyond the Rhine. Even when Germanicus was able to defeat the Germans in an engagement, the tribes were able to re-group so quickly that in the end he could only achieve short-lived, skirmish victories: true conquest was simply impossible.
The prevailing expert opinion at the beginning of the current campaign against the rebels used to be that the rate of defections was rather low and the bulk of the armed forces remained intact. For example, in his recent article on Syria, Israeli analyst Jonathan Spyer estimated that the regime can still marshal 300,000 troops, as opposed to at most 20,000 guerrillas in the Free Syrian Army. Yet, after two weeks of an iron fist that appears unable to decisively hammer the opposition anywhere, one question is begging to be asked: Where exactly is Bashar hiding his 300,000 strong army? The Syrian army may have more troops than it appears from its muddling in Homs, given that it apparently pursues offensives on several fronts at once. Yet, the army is clearly severely short on ground-troops. For it is no longer capable of being present in all areas of revolt nor mustering enough forces anywhere to smash the opposition with a decisive local Blitzkrieg.
Two weeks ago Mustafa Ahmad Al-Sheikh, a high level defector, who has fled to Turkey, claimed that the Syrian army was so depleted by defections that he expected it to collapse by the end of this month. This assessment was dismissed by many as rebel propaganda, but now Al-Sheikh is starting to look closer to reality than his critics. In fact, not so long ago the same Al-Sheikh estimated that he needed a whole year to topple the regime with guerrilla tactics and at that time he was not treated as a rebel propagandist.
With each passing day that the Syrian army remains bogged down in Homs and elsewhere, the graver the consequences for the regime. Two weeks of intense bombardment televised on Al-Jazeera and other Arabic channels have already triggered a tsunami of outrage across the Arab world. Weapons and foreign fighters are reported to be streaming into Syria from neighboring Arab countries and Turkey.
About the Author
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University. His website is http://www.aymennjawad.org.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (31) | Leave a comment
More Articles by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
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John786| 2.21.12 @ 7:30AM
Mr jaw ad & co seem very desperate to encourage bashar al Assad. And malign the opposition. I can't say how long it will take but this regimes days are numbered. The minorities should throw in their lot with the sunnies and help to shape a future Syria. They will gain nothing from this torturing regime. Mr jawad's articles are cleverly disguised islamophobia . The Muslim people will work out democracy etc.. Within their own sociohistorical parameters. Why that gets people here into a tizzy fit is not always clear. The use of outlier terrorist movements to besmirch Muslims is a well worn tactic. The hegemony of Israel seems to play a big part in this demonisation.
Alan Brooks| 2.21.12 @ 7:43AM
Yes, but Assad will go into exile- a pleasant one.
He has connections and wont end up on the desert floor with blood on his snout, as Gaddhafi did.
A smooth operator.
albert constantine jr| 2.21.12 @ 6:14PM
...and don't forget, as an opthamologist, he could be coming soon to a Lenscrafters at your local mall.
Alan Brooks| 2.21.12 @ 9:47PM
"he could be coming soon to a Lenscrafters at your local mall."
He is interested in blinding us, not correcting out vision.
Jack in Wi.| 2.21.12 @ 7:44AM
The Wahbi sect of Saudia Arabia is the most radical group around. It is the main home of terrorism in the Muslim world. With friends like Saudia Arabia and Israel the USA doesn't need any enemies. Let Syria figure out it's future by itself. Every time we stick our fingers in the neighborhood, they get burnt.
Bobloblaw| 2.21.12 @ 8:04AM
You disapoint JackinWi. I though the Jooooos were the main source of terrorism in the middle east. I tune in nice and early for my daily does of blood libel and I have to hear JackinWI blame arabs for terrorism???
Sean| 2.21.12 @ 2:49PM
The supporters of the rebels are Al Queda and Saudi Arabia. The biggest losers if Assad falls will be the Christian minority in the country which is protected by the dictator. It will be the same as in Iraq when Saddam fell the USA did not protect the Christians there and they were forced to flee.
Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 2.23.12 @ 2:53AM
Sean that is absolutely correct. The Christians were ethnically cleansed from Iraq (their ancestoral homeland since pre-Islamic times) and the occupying United States government did nothing to protect them even though it was their toppling of Saddam Hussein who made the conditions ripe for such an anti-Christian pogrom. To Assad's credit he gave the Iraqi Christians refuge, something the United States did not do.
Bobloblaw| 2.21.12 @ 8:05AM
""The Muslim people will work out democracy etc.""
Democracy Islamic style:
Two muslim men voting to rape the muslim woman.
John786| 2.21.12 @ 9:43AM
Racist. How do I know? I just read your words.
albert constantine jr| 2.21.12 @ 6:13PM
Wouldn't that remark be religionist?
Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 2.23.12 @ 2:50AM
I know what Wahhabists will do if they take power in Syria. I support Assad 100% and Russia, China and even Iran are completely right to support Assad as well. If Assad goes Alawites, Druze and Christians will all be in a precarious position just as Coptic Christians have found themselves in Egypt.
Clint| 2.21.12 @ 8:22AM
Dr.Ron Paul,
“The President also defended his unconstitutional intervention in Libya,
authorized not by the United States Congress but by the United Nations,
and announced new plans to pressure Syria and force the leader of that
country to step down.
“Our military is already dangerously extended, and this administration
wants to expand our involvement. When will our bombing in Libya end? Is
President Obama seriously considering military action against Syria? We
are facing $2 trillion dollar deficits, and the American taxpayer cannot
afford any of it.
“Our military’s purpose is to defend our country, not to police the
Middle East.
“As the President prepares to send even more support to Egypt, we should
be reminded that it was our foreign aid that helped Mubarak retain power
to repress his people in the first place. Now we have to deal with the
consequences of those decisions, yet we keep repeating the same mistakes.
“I am not the only one who can see the absurdities of our foreign
policy. We give $3 billion to Israel and $12 billion to her enemies.
Most Americans know that makes no sense.
“We need to come to our senses, trade with our friends in the Middle
East (both Arab and Israeli), clean up our own economic mess so we set a
good example, and allow them to work out their own conflicts.”
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Dick Nome | 2.21.12 @ 1:56PM
Rube Paul is an f'ing liberal. Ron Paul on Social Conservatism: 'I Think It's a Losing Position'
Romney/ Paul , two peas in a pod.
Clint| 2.21.12 @ 7:29PM
You Wouldn't Know Real Conservatism If It Hit Ya With A 2x4,Real Loser.
Read George Washington's Farewell Address, Thomas Jefferson's First Inaugural Address, The Old Right And Get Back To Us.
" George Will, "Today, we have a very different kind of foreign policy. It’s called Wilsonian. And the premise of the Bush Doctrine is that America must spread democracy, because our national security depends upon it. And America can spread democracy. It knows how. It can engage in national building. This is conservative or not?"
William F. Buckley, " It’s not at all conservative. It’s anything but conservative. It’s not conservative at all, inasmuch as conservatism doesn’t invite unnecessary challenges. It insists on coming to terms with the world as it is …”
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 2.23.12 @ 2:56AM
Ron Paul's foreign policy is traditional conservatism at its best. Also Ron Paul is a social conservative he just doesn't believe the government needs to dictate what happends in your bedroom as long as its two consenting adults. Ron Paul has been consistantly pro-life.
Paul Kotik| 2.21.12 @ 8:23AM
May the current situation in Syria linger for a very long time.
Every day that passes decreases the number of Syrians who will live to face the Israel Defence Forces as soldiers on the Golan. I think the present and future Syrian army must be down by about 2 combat battallions by now.
Keep it up, rebels. Keep it up, Bashar.
It's a shame both sides can't lose.
Harry the Horrible| 2.21.12 @ 8:48AM
Choices, choices. Do we support the Muslim Brotherhood led rebels, or the bloodthirsty, Iranian proxy dictator?
As far as I'm concerned, we should "support" neither.
And don't forget that those nice "rebels" in Homs are relieving their stress themselves killing Christians.
Bob K.| 2.21.12 @ 9:06AM
This is what is currently going on. Two Iranian warships were granted clearance through the Suez Canal by Egypt and are now in port in Syria.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB22Ak02.html
Because this is all about Oil. (And the Neo-Cons influence, if you agree with this columnist.)
There are other views on Syria from other parts of the world that don't jibe with the ones we generally see from our Clinton run state department and here at A.S. and in our own national press.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB22Ak04.html
richard ryan| 2.21.12 @ 9:07AM
Let's back the rebels. Like in Libya. Then they will overthrow the brutal regime and replace it with DEMOCRACY1 The Syrian people will establish good relations with neighbors, the people will be free, trade will flourish, etc. Right?
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.21.12 @ 10:53AM
I seem to recall that OUR MUSLIM, went to KINETIC ACTION against a Country - Libya - that was NOT Aligned with IRAN, for a whole Helluva lot less, than what's going on in Syria.
I think that about 150 Libyans had been killed by Khaddafi. That was enough for Hussein to Lead from behind in a Campaign of Kineticism against Moammar.
How many DEAD in Syria? How many THOUSANDS?
Anybody care to explain the SELECTIVITY in Hamas' Deliverer's definition of what precipitates a Kinetic Non War Response, and what does not?
Anyone?
Indy| 2.21.12 @ 9:08AM
Senators McCain and Graham want to arm the rebels, they never learn either side of this conflict is poison to the US. The media has stopped reporting on what is happening on the ground in Egypt and Libya, I would bet most Americans have no idea 19 Americans are being held in Egypt and face trials...thanks Barack.
Citizen Jerry| 2.21.12 @ 10:53AM
In all truthfulness, Bashir needs a grenade in his shorts.
Dustoff| 2.21.12 @ 12:35PM
Shall we not forget, both Hillary & O-dumber. Said Assad was thier guy and he could work with them (reformer)
Jezzzzz.
Mike w| 2.21.12 @ 8:02PM
I presume that you hate Christian since they will slaughtered just as they were in Egypt and Iraq after the regime change.
cicero| 2.21.12 @ 12:58PM
Just another attempt at an Islamic regime change. If Assad cracks, he will be lucky to escape with his life (and the national treasure). That may be problematical, what with the ability to trace funds in international banking. No Islamic regime leader leaves office except by assassination or exile. The Syrians will then install another tyrant. He may even be elected.
We should stand aside, and recognize whomever grabs the brass ring. Going in on these things on the pretext of saving civilian lives is just plain silly. Since when has that ever been the job of America? America has never gone to war for that purpose. Otherwise, where were we in Cambodia, China, Angola, Congo, South Africa,. . . .? It is only a pretext to do whatever the reigning party wants to do. At least we had the excuse of revenge when we went into Afghanistan and Iraq, even if we had no valid reason (at least no sane reason) to stay as long as we have, and waste lives and treasure trying to impose Jeffersonian democracy.
Leave Syria for the Syrians (and the Iranians).
cicero| 2.21.12 @ 12:58PM
Just another attempt at an Islamic regime change. If Assad cracks, he will be lucky to escape with his life (and the national treasure). That may be problematical, what with the ability to trace funds in international banking. No Islamic regime leader leaves office except by assassination or exile. The Syrians will then install another tyrant. He may even be elected.
We should stand aside, and recognize whomever grabs the brass ring. Going in on these things on the pretext of saving civilian lives is just plain silly. Since when has that ever been the job of America? America has never gone to war for that purpose. Otherwise, where were we in Cambodia, China, Angola, Congo, South Africa,. . . .? It is only a pretext to do whatever the reigning party wants to do. At least we had the excuse of revenge when we went into Afghanistan and Iraq, even if we had no valid reason (at least no sane reason) to stay as long as we have, and waste lives and treasure trying to impose Jeffersonian democracy.
Leave Syria for the Syrians (and the Iranians).
cicero| 2.21.12 @ 12:58PM
Just another attempt at an Islamic regime change. If Assad cracks, he will be lucky to escape with his life (and the national treasure). That may be problematical, what with the ability to trace funds in international banking. No Islamic regime leader leaves office except by assassination or exile. The Syrians will then install another tyrant. He may even be elected.
We should stand aside, and recognize whomever grabs the brass ring. Going in on these things on the pretext of saving civilian lives is just plain silly. Since when has that ever been the job of America? America has never gone to war for that purpose. Otherwise, where were we in Cambodia, China, Angola, Congo, South Africa,. . . .? It is only a pretext to do whatever the reigning party wants to do. At least we had the excuse of revenge when we went into Afghanistan and Iraq, even if we had no valid reason (at least no sane reason) to stay as long as we have, and waste lives and treasure trying to impose Jeffersonian democracy.
Leave Syria for the Syrians (and the Iranians).
Paul Kotik| 2.21.12 @ 4:37PM
We should provide low-cost, low-risk help to whichever side appears to be losing at any given time.
Leveut| 2.21.12 @ 9:51PM
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's columns are always very interesting.
Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 2.23.12 @ 2:47AM
Before the West buys into the corporate media propaganda machines I beg them to ponder this. There is grafitti on the walls of Homs with this ominous message from the Syrian Opposition. "Christians to Beiruit and Alawites to the Wall". Now if that isn't suggesting that the Sunni (and increasingly Islamist) opposition is not planning massive ethnic cleansing of Syria's religious minorities (who are backing Assad an Alawite) than I don't know what does.