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At Large
Middle East Scorecard
There never was an Arab Spring, unless it’s the one giving way to a Nuclear Spring.
During the past year a wave of popular uprisings was extolled by the West as the emergence of Middle Eastern democracy. Supposedly the region was about to produce its first broad scale, democratic, political revolution. The term “Arab Spring” conveniently characterized the occasion. European capitals and Washington fell all over themselves attempting to praise these complicated and often contradictory events.
The belief that a Western-style democracy was at the core of every Middle Easterner’s heart was encouraged during the Bush years. No matter what they were told by their own advisers on Arab affairs, the Bush White House became enamored of the idea that this was the high road to political success in the region. It was a laudable but historically and culturally incorrect assessment. When Obama arrived he swiftly bowed his way into the approval of traditional Arab leaders as well as offering a welcoming hand to the Persians. It didn’t work.
When Tunisia erupted in street demonstrations that led in January 2011 to the ouster of its president, Washington Republicans and Democrats heralded the demands for democratic freedoms as akin to the variously colored “revolutions” that had brought relatively peaceful changes elsewhere. The subsequent riots in Cairo were totally mischaracterized and touted as the essence of modern-day Arab political intellectual awakening in a form that crossed religious and secular lines. That there was at the same time a sustained and brutal attack on the large Coptic Christian population was for the most part ignored. It wasn’t until the stories accumulated of assaults on innocent bystanders and Western journalists in Tahrir Square that American and European governments began to reassess their analyses of the Spring’s events.
Meanwhile it was noted that the Egyptian military effectively had removed itself from the political domination of the Mubarak regime while still retaining its own ultimate authority and military power. The Obama Administration took most of 2011 to recognize this fact even though the American Embassy in Cairo all along had accurately reported the evolution of the uprising. Washington “insiders” regularly repeated the theme that the U.S. retained the political upper hand because of its annual $1.3 billion military aid package to Egypt.
Meanwhile the overthrow of Gaddafi essentially by a combination of Cyrenican anti-government separatists aided by NATO weapons, air power, and technical assistance journalistically morphed (with the aid of demonstrations in Morocco) into what was touted to be a democratization of the Maghreb. The fact that the replacement of the Gaddafi dictatorship has not been followed by any seriously representational democracy has been conveniently under-emphasized by official Western observers now in their wishful thinking phase of strategic analysis.
Syria, for totally different reasons, has thrown itself into a chaotic, primarily Sunni, uprising against the Shia Alawite leadership of the Assad dynasty. The United Nations’ most recent estimates account for more than 5,500 civilian deaths. While the brutal suppression of this dissent has been roundly condemned by the UN Security Council (minus Russia and China), the term “Syrian Spring” has not been widely used. This fact is quite justified, as it is less a democratic revolt than the long awaited confessional uprising of the majority, but disenfranchised, Sunni population against the privileged ruling minority Shia.
Along with the international political support of Russia and China, the Assad regime has been backed by the material and financial aid of the Iranian government and their elite al Quds force special operations cadre. While the crowds of barely armed Sunnis are gunned down by the Assad military, the rest of the Arab Sunnis of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf are not demanding Arab democracy as such. They are all monarchies and do not want to overly encourage any forms of popular uprising. They definitely believe some Arabs are more equal than others, as we saw when the Saudis rushed to the aid of their nearby Sunni monarchy brothers in Bahrain and played active covert roles in the Yemen tribal conflict. No springtime there.
And now we are about to have a Nuclear Spring of 2012, if Secretary of Defense Panetta is correct. The difference is that no Arabs will be involved, as it pits the Israelis against the Iranians — neither of whom are Arabs, though the Jews are Semites and the Persians are ethno-linguistically Indo-Europeans. But that is making too fine a point when the real issue is that one country is a true democracy and the other is ultimately a theocracy. No Arabs, and no real springtime there either.
The key to all this supposed revolutionary desire for democracy is how one defines the process. Bashar al Assad wants “democracy” as long as he is regularly elected President. Mubarak had the same idea, and now the Moslem Brotherhood want their own form of “democracy” as long as it follows their version of Islamic law. “Democratic process” in Iran is a sham as long as a supreme theocratic leader stands above all elected officials, controls the military and security apparat, and autocratically guides the nation.
As far as a Western democracy is concerned, it is best simply to accept that the term and system is just not soon to be appropriate to the Middle East. Lebanon’s confessional politics has done its best to fracture its own chances for true democracy. Certainly Israel will never be praised for leading the way. There was no Spring in the Middle East — Arab or otherwise; and there most likely will not be any.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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Mike Hawk| 2.17.12 @ 6:15AM
Most of the Middle East still lives in the 10th century with all its tribalism and despotic rulers the norm.The rise of Islamist despotism changes nothing. It remains the 10th Century.
Jack in Wi.| 2.17.12 @ 9:31PM
I generally agree with a lot of this article. I disagree with his comments about Israel being a democracy to emulate. Israel is a democracy like Apartheid South Africa and the American South before integration. There is a lot of freedom for Jews and a lot of racism for everyone else.
Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yeman were long term tyrannies supported by Uncle Sam. Naturally when such systems are overthrown, it will take years to figure out the final configuartions of the governments. Our other tyrant friends in the area like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrein, Quater, Dubai, ect, have serious problems. The best thing the USA can do in these areas is get the hell out and let the chips fall where they may. These people have to sell their oil to live. Iraq is finally getting back to good production. The only thing our Middle East policies have done is make us hated throughout the region. We are broke. Our troops are broken. Let these people figure it out for themselves. We can't even do a good job in this country.
stan redmond| 2.18.12 @ 1:44PM
Try going there. Israel the only place in the middle east Arabs live in freedom.
We've (white European Westerners) have been hated by the islamists long before we had any middle east policies. Ever hear the Marine Corps Hymn?
c. j. acworth| 2.17.12 @ 6:43AM
Rats. And here I thought that inside every camel jockey was an American, trying to get out.
Hobbes| 2.17.12 @ 2:52PM
The closer you examine it, the clearer it is that neoconservatism is simply about sustaining a permanent war against anyone or any country who disagrees with the Israeli right. -- A.S.
John786| 2.17.12 @ 7:13AM
Democracy. So confusing isn't it. people in the ME electing governments that are in keeping with their sociohistorical heritage. The arrogance of these people. Why are'nt they more like us. The arrogance of these people. We should cut of all aid immeadeatley. Next they'll want to advance their scientific standing in the world. The arrogance of these people of the ME has no bounds. They way they look at us; you would think that we turned their region into a turkey shoot.
Al Adab| 2.17.12 @ 11:38AM
Good morning John:
You actually put your finger on it. Not all nations and not all peoples view their societies the same way. The Western world has its history and traditions, The Islamic world has its own history and traditions as does the Asian or Eastern world.
It is a mistake to expect, as the naive American media seems to, that other cultures will accept as given the basic premises of Western Civ. It is the great mistake of "nation building" which Bush bought into.
In the ME we are all still hostage to the mistakes the Western powers made after WWI.
John786| 2.17.12 @ 2:43PM
Haji Al Adab,
You speak of - nation building. Thats very generous. US policy in Iraq has been very sectarian in nature: the less generous might describe that as nation destroying. Nation building, WMD, democracy, womens rights etc.. are Mere euphemisms for invasions/ destruction . The fireworks are not over: our Persian brother and sisters will soon feel the wrath of "nation building".
Al Adab| 2.17.12 @ 3:10PM
John:
I use "nation building" advisidly as that is the euphemism of choice. It is a mistake which too many make in attempting to foster Western values and systems on non-Western cultures and peoples. As you note, the results are often contrary to the intent. The road to hell as they say. Have a good weekend.
Todd S| 2.17.12 @ 3:31PM
I don't think Israel has any interest in "nation building" in Iran, just to destroy the homicidal maniacs running that country. They are perfectly able to rebuild themselves once those evil Islamofascists are sent to hell. Talk to anyone who escaped the hellish prison that is Iran, a large majority of the people there hate the mullahs.
John786| 2.17.12 @ 4:13PM
Israel's policies can be described as many things but 'nation building' I agree is not one of them. Hell. Thats probably a correct reading of the policy. Very prescient.
Hobbes| 2.17.12 @ 4:16PM
Those evil islamofascists are 2.2 billion strong. We better learn how to live with the islamofascists because they aren't going away. Or maybe Todd S. is singlehandedly going to kill them all.
Al Adab| 2.17.12 @ 5:35PM
Actually Hobbes, as John probably knows, Iran is facing a demographic collapse after about 2050. They are an ancient and proud civilization facing an unwelcome end. It is likely that the perspective they have is one of, "If not now, when?". Not all nations act rationally and tyrants often seek self agrandizment and destruction for its own sake
Von Mises Jr.| 2.17.12 @ 9:20AM
"Democracy" is broadly defined as "the state should be controllled by the people sharing equally in priviledges, duties and responsibilities." So our master-minds in DC tell us this is democracy in the Middle East. And they are correct in that most of the people voted for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, wish to revoke their commitment to the treaty with Israel, and decided to kill all the Copts and other Christians, as well as hold Americans hostage. Now our master-minds apparently don't like what they wished for?
This is what Americans must understand about our Constitution. We are a Representative Republic with unalienable rights granted by our Creator with a central government of Enumerated Powers. This means that even if we elected Obama, Pelosi and Reid (2009-2011) and they proved an equivalent of the Muslim Brotherhood; our Constitution of Enumerated Powers does not allow them to adopt dictatorial rule with a rogue DOJ, wage undeclared wars and eradicate the TEA Party and fiscal conservatives. Somebody should explain this to the public before the next election.
Moe Blotz| 2.17.12 @ 10:32AM
With the help of the Patriot Post, TEA Party, and other sites on the Internet, we are working on it.
Todd S| 2.17.12 @ 1:23PM
Democracy is just mob rule and when that mob is woefully ignorant and taught to hate non-Muslims, you get what you have in Egypt. Without a strong Constitutional Republic that honors the rule of law and rights of minority groups, democracy will just end in a winner take all mentality. This is what we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan and throughout Africa. The media's reaction in Egypt was pathetic and embarrassing even by their low standards, it was all very predictable how things were going to turn out in Egypt for the worse.
Von Mises Jr.| 2.18.12 @ 9:04AM
Exactly, Todd. But don't be too anxious to give more credit to our liberals (read socialist of assorted flavors) than you give the Muslims in Egypt taught to hate Jews and Christians. The trolls on this site are testament to woeful ignorance.
Listen to your liberal neighbors talk about Bush, or about capitalism. Their religion is abortion. If you oppse this, you are ostracized and a pariah. And they are the ones murdering fetuses.
POST American| 2.17.12 @ 9:25AM
---------------------------BTW-----------------------------
Is everyone noticing, as 'Agenda 21' is
in putting into action the takedown of
soverewignty and economies around the
world ----while implementing EUGENICS
-------------THE-------------- high profile
media foe of the UN --John Bolton, is
nowhere to be found.
Further, we learn unrepentrant,
third generation Rockefeller EUGENIST
Bill Gates is not only into
GM food Monsanto --BUT! is paying off
media across the boards to SHUT UP
or even promote this horrifying program.
Noticing, A.S. NEVER touches these
stupendously relevant issues either.
-------------------$$$$$$trange. . .
JAH666| 2.17.12 @ 10:12AM
What is happening in the middle east and north Africa is another sign of what is happening the world over. The hand of despotism in many different forms is closing into an iron fist around populations of most nations, including those in North America, slowly and surely. There may be no way that peoples that have known freedom can stop this. The forces that control that tightening hand are very strong. A wise and learned Rabbi told me back in the 1990's that he believed that the forces of socialism/statism/despotism or whatever 'philosophy' evil people were pursuing across all the nations of the Earth had been and were continuing to grow strong and would ultimately succeed. He believed a great dark period was coming in the history of mankind. The ascendence of evil over good, he believed, was inevitable.
Pray for a Second Coming| 2.18.12 @ 7:05AM
JAH666, I agree.
I wish it were not so. And I have to work and toil as if this cannot come to pass.
But it will. Very soon.
The carefree lives we have known in the US, Canada, Australia, and Western Europe are about to end.
I know that only about 5% of the readers here want to see what I will write next, but it is the truth.
Just as God threw the people into dissaray at the Tower of Babel, so too we have earned our new dark age. We reject God at every turn. We mock him. We mock the very words He gave Moses and we mock and ignore the words that His Son Jesus offered to us as the only Truth.
That is what ushers in our new dark age -- an age that will be ugly for most all of us.
Islam is just one of Satan's mighty tools, a very effective one. His demons have full reign over Islam's doctrines and jihad for the infidels. So this will be a big part of our new dark age.
BackToBasics| 2.18.12 @ 9:09PM
Agree and the devil has large control over the liberal Christian Churches and there are no shortages of wolves in sheep's clothing in the evangelical churches either.
2 Timothy 3:13 says of the last days, "But evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse, deceiving, and being deceived."
Hinduism and Buddhism and ancestor worship offer no hope either. Outside of direct miraculous intervention by God, only much prayer by Christians can push the clouds back enough to comfort troubled hearts.
Al Adab| 2.17.12 @ 11:41AM
Simply put, the American media tried to sell the population a bill of goods by inventing the term "Arab Spring". It is a mistake to assume out of context that the peoples of the ME wanted the creation of systems foreign to their history and traditions. Either the media is hugely naive OR it was done by design to assist their chosen President and world view. We cannot imagine our way to a better world.
cicero| 2.17.12 @ 1:56PM
Our social engineers hear what people say, and then assume that they mean something else. The Islamic world, as represented by its leaders, have been telling us for decades that they do not want what we ARE. They will, of course, accept our treasure as long as they don't have to change their beliefs and ways. But, when they say that they will destroy us, and demonstrate how that will happen by their actions against the non-muslim population among them, they seem amused that we refuse to believe what they say, and what we see. It is time for us to stop all aid to those who give nothing in return, and openly mock us, and play us for fools. Without Western free money, the only thing they have that will allow them to survive is oil. We can buy that at market prices. If they charge too much, we can drill our own and they can eat theirs. What is so hard to understand about the market system?
merlin| 2.18.12 @ 10:16AM
cicero,
LOL. "...we can drill our own and they can eat theirs."
May I use that line?
Unfortunately, judging from the Keystone pipe line, the gulf moratorium etc. Obama cannot see the wisom and justice of letting them eat their oil.
Hobbes| 2.17.12 @ 2:46PM
E.D. Kain sums up neoconservatism:
The Islamic world is nothing like the Western world. We have few, if any, of the same values and virtually no historical commonality save our shared, centuries-old conflict with one another. The Islamic world, by and large, has none of the laws or customs necessary to develop an organic democratic society the way Western nations have. Therefore, the only way to achieve peace with the Islamic world is for them to adopt our notions of plurality, democracy, and humanism. They won’t do this on their own because of their lack of shared values, and so it follows that we must intervene on their behalf to impose these values, and fashion democracies for them in our image.
rlln| 2.17.12 @ 3:36PM
To the author:
Iran is a theocracy?
To whom? To the panties-wearing crowd in Turtle Bay, NYC?
Iran's bearded fags running Iran are -- to their own people -- thugs, tyrants, 24/7 police, brutes, hypocrites, and scum.
Please don't use a word like "theocracy." That lends some degree of civility to it, some degree of structure or higher purpose. There is no civility at all. It's a jackboot nation, fella, because the boots are on the feet of 12%.
If you want to write a meaningful article, write an article on the Freedom Train (not what it is officially called from within Iran) that departs Iran -- sometimes weekly -- for Turkey. The passengers on board that make to the destination, all of them paying top, top money for this privilege, all of them are on a one-way ticket.
Write an article on that. Research it well before. Include the real, heart-wrenching stories. In telling that story, you will give readers truth. And you will probably get more than 18 people responding by 3 p.m. EST on the day the article shows up here.
Dixie Pixie| 2.17.12 @ 4:14PM
Egypt, aka "The Muslim Brotherhood" to the USA.
---That is a nice little peace treaty we have with Israel.---
---It would be a shame that the Foreign Aid money would stop and the Israel Peace Treaty gets whacked.---
Obama just had to play-act as a Che Guevara revolutionary and the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists took full advantage of such gullibility and stupidity.
Every one knew what the Salafists and Muslim Brotherhood are, but the MSM covered up with the fantasy of Protesters demanding a secular Democracy.
Now everyone will pay a bloody price for such foolishness.
Dixie Pixie| 2.17.12 @ 5:20PM
On this very website, I saw the Obama Trolls rejoice at the death of Col. Gaddafi and claim Obama was so very wonderful in killing Gaddafi.
Never mind, Obama was overthrowing a internationally recognized legitimate government in an illegal war.
Disregard the fact that Obama disavowed any leadership role in the Libyan War, preferring to lurk in the shadows.
Of course, it was irrelevant that the reason for intervention was to stop the imaginary massacre of the noble rebels, an event that only Obama and O'Reilly could see.
Not was an issue, that Libya is doomed for years of civil war because no side is powerful enough to enforce a government and the Western Governments will not..
The dead ,the constant fighting and especially the massacres will simply not be televised or reported.
All you need to know about Obama supporters is they claim Obama has preformed flawlessly in Foreign Policy despite all evidence to the contrary.
Malevolent is , as Malevolent does.
For further information read::::
http://www.time.com/time/world.....24,00.html
Richard Baker| 2.17.12 @ 11:25PM
What can one expect from the "Religion of Peace"? Islam is a warrior code not unlike the Imperial Japanese bushido. Read the history and this "faith" has been at war with others and itself since its inception up to the present.
obadiah| 2.18.12 @ 12:58PM
Delusional dreams dance in peoples' heads. At least in the heads of people viewing from afar. On the scene, people are starving. Infrastructures are crumbling. Populations are burgeoning. Young people are growing up wild and angry at their miserable futures. What they presently lack is organization. From what I see, they will fragment into gangs and armies. They will all be Islamic, like 16th century Europe was all Christian.
Marc Jeric| 2.18.12 @ 5:40PM
Our communist Agit-Prop Office, consisting of our Main Stream Media: ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, NPR, CNN, MTV, NY Times, Washington Post, LA Times, Marxist university professors, shallow Hollywood actors, TV talking heads, and Mullah Obama himself - have called the rise of Al-Qaeda and other jihadis in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria "Arab Spring"; meaning the push for democratization. This degree of ignorance would be really criminal - but no; it is a carefully thought out support for Muslim jihadists.
John Kettlewell| 2.18.12 @ 8:04PM
The culture would take many generations to change. It is an alpha-dog peoples. Lead, follow, or get run over are the only options. They will be authoritarian for the foreseeable future. Accept stability and leave them to their squabbles. Mubarak was stable. King Faud is stable. Gaddafi was stable. Iran theocracy is stable. Assad is stable.
Are any of them 'good guys'? What happens when they're gone? I would add Iran was stable with the Shah...and then what happened? Afgan, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia....EVERY single Muslim dominant nation requires strong rule. They will always fight at every level of loyalty and dispose of regimes eventually. Accept it, accept stability.