February 7 may have been the defining date for the Republican
nominating battle. Rick Santorum went 3 for 3 in Colorado,
Minnesota, and Missouri. In the latter two he didn’t just beat Mitt
Romney, he whomped him. If Santorum goes on to secure the
nomination, February 7 will be seen as the date he reached critical
mass. If you’re a conservative the results were encouraging for a
number of reasons.
Particularly enjoyable was the comeuppance of conventional
wisdom, which took several body blows. For months the pundits have
been arrogantly pronouncing the ultimate outcome of a process that
would involve numerous twists and turns. The self-appointed experts
just knew that Romney’s money, organization, and endorsements would
assure his ultimate victory. That may still be true in the end, but
so far the pundits’ predictive model has some serious flaws. Last
week’s results stunned and surprised the “experts.”
Romney has been banking on two main themes: inevitability
and electability. He’s essentially said, “I should be the nominee
because everyone knows I’m going to be the nominee.”
The inevitability and electability claims now look like
very fragile foundations on which to base a campaign. For them to
work you cannot afford to lose more than one or two primaries. On
February 7 Romney didn’t just lose, he got trounced. To this point
he has lost 5 out of 8 primaries. He drew to an inside straight,
which is not smart. He made a bad bet. February 7 pulled the rug
out from under claims of inevitability and electability.
Among the candidates the word “baggage” is usually
associated with Newt Gingrich. It is Mitt Romney, however, who has
the heaviest single piece of baggage: Romneycare.
For Republican voters Obamacare is as much of a core issue
as the economy. (The two are, of course, closely linked.) Romney’s
creation of Romneycare as well as his ongoing decision to defend it
could prove to be his fatal flaw. It may well be a liability too
great to be overcome by any amount of money, organization, or
endorsements.
Another major element of Romney’s sales pitch has been
“electability.” That now appears to have been a serious strategic
blunder. That emphasis makes sense if your primary opponents are
Gingrich or Ron Paul. It’s not nearly as persuasive if your main
opponent is Rick Santorum. As I write this, Santorum is leading
Romney in three of five national polls. In the Public Policy
Polling poll Santorum leads Romney 38 percent to 23
percent.
The February 7 results were a clear demonstration of the
limitations of money, endorsements, and organization. Romney has an
overwhelming superiority in those factors. The results last week
demonstrated that core principles and ideology are more powerful
than money.
I can’t speak for all conservatives, but I think many of
us see 2012 as a golden opportunity to put a true conservative in
the White House for the first time since Ronald Reagan. We’re
frustrated that we may squander that opportunity. Nominating Mitt
Romney would do just that. We would vote for Romney over Obama in a
heartbeat. Sometimes you have to settle. This is not one of those
times.
Making sure that Barak Obama is one and done is job one in
2012. If that takes nominating a moderate, we should nominate a
moderate. However, if we can defeat Obama and elect a
conservative, that is what we want to do and it is something we can
do.
Romney is doing his best to convince voters that he is, in
fact, a conservative. It’s a little late for that now. At this
point his only option is to proclaim that he is conservative.
Unfortunately for him, he has already proven that he is not a
conservative by his actions. A conservative would never have
supported government-mandated health insurance. There’s nothing
truer than “actions speak louder than words.” As someone once said,
“Your behavior speaks so loud I can’t hear what you say.” For many
conservatives Romney’s assets are insignificant and his liabilities
are deal killers.
Prediction is a hazardous occupation. Just who Republicans
will nominate is still uncertain. Nevertheless, the February 7
results were the biggest step yet in reducing that
uncertainty.
