Mitt Romney appeared to regain his footing this weekend. After
being swept by Rick Santorum in the Missouri primary and in the
Minnesota and Colorado caucuses, Romney rebounded with victories in
the CPAC straw poll and the week-long Maine caucus.
But Romney could soon face his toughest battle yet, and in the
place he would have least expected it: Michigan. Rick Santorum is
winning over Republicans and blue collar Reagan Democrats in
the Wolverine State and has scratched his way to the top of the
polls. The American
Research Group currently has Santorum leading Romney by six
points (33 percent to 27 percent). Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling
gives Santorum an even more substantial lead of
fifteen points (39 percent to 24 percent) and notes that he is
ahead in every area of the state except Oakland County, where
Romney grew up. This is not good news for Romney.
Should Romney lose to Santorum in Michigan, be it by six points
or fifteen, it will be a stinging rebuke. After all, the people of
Michigan thrice elected his father George Romney during the 1960s,
though one could argue that the elder Romney is a distant memory
now. That said, the younger Romney convincingly won the state’s
2008 primary, beating eventual GOP nominee John McCain by nine
points. A loss in Michigan on Feb. 28 could very well put a dagger
through the heart of Romney’s campaign, even if he were to win the
Arizona primary later that same evening. If Romney can’t beat Rick
Santorum in Michigan, then how could he expect beat President Obama
there?
However, Romney has time on his side. Two weeks to be exact. If
a week in politics is a lifetime, then two weeks is an eternity. It
is more than enough time for Romney to sharpen his Wolverine claws
and rip Santorum to shreds, as he did with Newt Gingrich last month
in Florida following the former Speaker’s upset victory in the
South Carolina primary.
The question now is whether Santorum’s hide is thick enough to
withstand Romney’s persistent attacks. I’m not sure how helpful it
is for Santorum to suggest that Romney
rigged the results of the CPAC straw poll. This is something on
which Santorum ought not dwell. He is far better served by looking
ahead than by looking back. As Satchel Paige often said, “Don’t
look back. Something might be gaining on you.” In this case, that
something would be Romney with his teeth bared. Given what is at
stake on Feb. 28, these encouraging poll numbers for Santorum in
Michigan are certainly more worthy of his attention than a far less
consequential straw poll.
Besides, what exactly can Romney say against Santorum? He cannot
credibly criticize Santorum on social issues, such as abortion and
gay marriage, without drawing attention to his own inconsistencies
on those matters. He certainly cannot criticize Santorum on foreign
affairs and national defense. At best, Romney can call Santorum a
Washington insider and
accuse him of pork barrel spending and earmarks. But whatever
Santorum’s transgressions from his days on Capitol Hill, they pale
in comparison to Romneycare, which hangs over the former
Massachusetts governor’s perfectly coiffed hair like the sword of
Damocles. It certainly doesn’t help Romney that Santorum has been
more effective than any other Republican rival at drawing attention
to its shortcomings, so much so that Romney referred to his own
scheme as “Romneycare” in one of the recent GOP
debates.
Another factor working against Romney is that many conservatives
do not want him to attack Santorum in the manner he did Gingrich.
As Byron York noted in the Washington Examiner, a group of
conservative activists met with Romney prior to his CPAC speech and
beseeched him to refrain from going after Santorum. Clearly,
Santorum has not made enemies on the right the way Gingrich has,
and while many conservatives were more than happy that Romney went
medieval on Gingrich, the same cannot be said when it comes to
Santorum. Romney could pay the price for disregarding this
counsel.
The only way Romney’s strategy will work is if Santorum, like
Gingrich, becomes his own worst enemy. If Romney can manage to get
Santorum to sound like a sullen, sanctimonious, scolding sourpuss
in the next two weeks, then he will have found a way to turn back
yet another Republican challenger. But if Santorum’s skin proves
thick enough, Republicans might very well defang Romney.
