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Putin’s Challenge

By on 2.10.12 @ 6:07AM

He has bigger things in mind for Russia than the inconvenience posed by a hundred thousand protesters.

There is a phenomenon in Russia these days, grown out of the Putin era, of encouraging and utilizing the nationalistic instincts of the country’s youth. Unfortunately for Vladimir Putin and his plans for a “disciplined” future, these radicalized young people have there own ambitions. And these ambitions do not include acceptance of what they now consider the “old order” — V.V. Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, and the siloviki of the past decade.

In an odd association of bedfellows, the liberal partisans and parties have found themselves demonstrating for the same anti-Putin causes that have driven the young radical rightists. The anti-establishment, anti-Kremlin rally the last week of December 2011 had been estimated to be an amazing 100,000 demonstrators. That number and more marched through downtown Moscow on February 4. Nothing this size has occurred in the last twenty years. The stage for this extraordinary political action was set several weeks before the December affair when several thousand protesters rallied in Moscow against what they claimed were fraudulent actions by Putin’s party, United Russia, in its majority victory in the parliamentary elections.

Neutral observers from the Council of Europe supported these claims of electoral fraud, which they characterized as “flagrant procedural violations.” This was a diplomatic way of referring to obviously stuffed ballot boxes, 99% victories, and the accumulation of votes in excess of the population living in various districts. These violations were so egregious that it brings into question the political competence of the Putin machine — or perhaps the degree of control Vladimir Putin’s lieutenants have over his local followers.

Of course, none of this was supposed to happen. The right-wing youth were considered solidly in the Putin camp. The middle class urban liberals had never shown any real sense of organization — and certainly not enough to join in a massive public demonstration. Given the coolness that Putin has personified over the years, he certainly was deemed to have his country’s politics and his own future under control. What happened?

To begin with, the quiescent Russia that the Medvedev/Putin tandem has purportedly personified apparently does not exist. Medvedev’s representation of the economic middle class and the intellectual liberals was calculated as a balance to Putin’s supposed attraction to the more conservative nationalistic “ordinary citizen.” This latter group turns out to have a larger component that is far more radical than previously perceived.

Conservative nationalists include a segment of the youth demographic that reveres the racist beliefs of Nazism and extols the thuggery of street action. This segment of the population is dominated by the under-thirties who strongly feel their estrangement from the establishment. The FSB and local police thought they had these neo-Nazis and skinheads well penetrated and under control. They were wrong. The so-called conservative nationalists may include many “ordinary citizens,” but it also embodies the violence-prone hooliganism akin to the early days of Bolshevism and, of course, Nazi street fighters.

The numbers of the politically liberal include many who originally supported the reforms urged by Putin because the laissez-faire Yeltsin years dominated by newly minted multi-millionaire oligarchs had produced so much economic inequality. The ranks of the people who consider themselves “liberals” are weakened by an excess of leaders who, in spite of their considerable number, are unable to energize and effectively organize their followers. In brief, these anti-Putin elements suffer from the traditional “too many chiefs — not enough Indians” syndrome.

Structurally, therefore, the opposition to Putin’s imperial leadership lacks the cohesiveness and strength to challenge Putin’s dominant political party, United Russia. Overturning the government through public demonstrations has no possibility in a Russia that in general still is accepting of the authoritarian rule of Vladimir Putin.

There is a tendency in Europe and the United States to view the leadership style of a former career KGB officer as inconsistent with the growth of democracy in Russia. This view is counter-reality, according to Kremlin insiders. The belief of these Putin loyalists, such as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, is that strong leadership is the sine qua non of today’s democracy in Russia. In this context holding the nation together with a firm hand — politically, economically, socially and militarily — is necessary in order to encourage democracy to thrive in a country struggling to define itself in global terms. Self-serving, true, but that’s what they believe.

Putin’s drive to return Russia to the forefront of world political military powers will brook no interference from internal divisions. His aim is to bring Russia back to superpower status and he will do whatever necessary to achieve that objective. According to Putinistas, if the left and right wing mobs in the streets don’t understand this, they will have to be “taught.”

About the Author

George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (29) |

cicero| 2.10.12 @ 3:13PM

A recall of the history of greater Russia clearly shows that the general population has no sense of democracy as known in the West. From the time that the hordes from the east overwhelmed the local Russian population, and basically killed most of the population and replaced them with theiir own, they have enjoyed either monarchy or aristocracy. The Bolshevics replaced the Romanov aristocracy with their own aristocracy of the beaurocracy. Any revolutions in Russia will follow that pattern. They will trade one form for another, but will not change to a rule of the masses.

Alan Brooks| 2.10.12 @ 9:09PM

But Putin HAS to go, cicero, no more polonium 210 sushi.

Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 2.11.12 @ 1:49AM

Litvinenko was a double agent working for the UK and it may not have been Russian intelligence that killed him. Who knows he might have been working with the Chechens as well. Nonetheless the man's own father recently came out and said that his son was a traitor to Mother Russia and he died a traitors death.

Alan Brooks| 2.11.12 @ 6:57PM

IMO it was plausible deniability: Putin could claim it was unlikely he would do something so obvious.

Alan Brooks| 2.11.12 @ 8:50PM

Remember, Dmitry, we are criticizing Russian leaders, not Russia; Russia can survive without Putin, Russians are tough- only they and the Poles (related to each other) could survive '1941- '45. Putin is a ambitious and talented man, almost a Peter the Great, but his morality is too low even given the conditions of today. You CAN do better.
At any rate, no traitor no matter how vile should be poisoned with radioactive material;
and again, that Litvinenko was with Russians when he was poisoned; that those who were with him are immune from extradition indicates a plausible deniability scenario.

Bob K.| 2.11.12 @ 11:19PM

Cicero,
Perhaps Toqueville's observation at the end of his 1st volume of "Democracy in America" is pertinent here.

"My aim has been to show, by the example of America, that laws and especially customs, may allow a democratic people to remain free. but I am very far from thinking that we ought to follow the example of American democracy and copy the means it has employed to attain this end; for I am well aware of the INFLUENCE WHICH THE NATURE OF A COUNTRY AND ITS POLITICAL ANTECEDENTS EXERCISE ON ITS POLITICAL CONSTITUTION; and I should regard it as a great misfortune for mankind if liberty were to exist all over the world under the same features."

This falls in line with John Lukacs observation in his recent essay, "Democracy and Populism:" "Is democracy the rule of the people, or, more precisely, rule by the people? No: because it is, really and actually, rule in the name of the people." page 5.

Both you and Mr. Wittman seem to agree on these points.

Although, I would argue that revolutions are over in Europe and I wonder if what is being sought here is "regime change" which seems to be the lynch pin of America's current foreign policy, and a recent replacement of "diplomacy."

Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 2.10.12 @ 3:21PM

Everything will be fine in Russia no matter who gets elected as long as the United States and Europe keep their damn hands out of it. Russia is a sovereign Orthodox nation and God willing will remain so.

Alan Brooks| 2.10.12 @ 9:13PM

I don't like how the Bush administration tried to put an ABM complex in Poland- it was sticking a pin into Russia.
Russia cannot be blamed for being paranoid (and please admit that it is paranoid, Dmitry) after what the Axis did to it; so when Bush's people played their little game with ABM, the Russian bear stood on its hind paws and roared.

axbucxdu| 2.13.12 @ 7:37PM

I don't think their response was all that paranoid there, Al. Sometimes rockets do some strange things. I'm sure they'd rather spend the money defending their eastern borders, but now they're forced to account for this nuisance to their west.

Nor was Shrub the Dunce sticking it to Russia. He had the preposterous hope that these ABMs would eliminate any excuse the Israeli government had for striking Iran.

cicero| 2.10.12 @ 3:43PM

D.A. I agree with you. The question is whetheer Russia, and whoever gets elected, will keep its hads off of everybody else.

Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 2.11.12 @ 1:58AM

20 years ago Moscow gave up one of the largest Empires on the planet. It's not Russia that's causing tensions. It's NATO encroachment in Russia's backyard and this proposed missile defense system that is supposed to target Iran but is surrounding Russia. As for Georgia. Saakashvilli is a liability even to the Americans. He was the one who fired on Russian soldiers in 2008 in South Ossetia starting that war and it must be understood that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are only within the nation of Georgia because of Stalin who was Georgian born. Also to answer Mr. Brooks, Moscow may be paranoid but not without reason if the Russians and Chinese formed an alliance with Mexico and Canada and Cuba the United States wouldn't like it one bit and that's what the United States and Europe have done with NATO.

Alan Brooks| 2.12.12 @ 12:34AM

"Also to answer Mr. Brooks, Moscow may be paranoid but not without reason"

No disagreement, Dmitry: IMO America could not have survived an invasion the size of the Great Patriotic War (GPW); because your people are used to suffering, Americans are not- our Civil War was a small fraction the size of the GPW.

But I feel like the General played by George C. Scott in Dr. Strangelove:

"no offense to you Russkies.. after all,
the Nazis killed off millions of you guys-
but you kept going!"

POST American| 2.10.12 @ 11:06PM

'Ordo ob K---OZ' directed from the capstone
remains ----THE----- source of the poison.

The ultra ich, USURY feuled, TAX FREE,
'benny violent', EUGENICS mongering,
covertly, and now openly, TREASONOUS
capstone foundations and NGOs ---ARE---
the problem.

--From the ILLEGAL, PRIVATE 'FED'

-------to the St Petersbug Bolsheivk coup

----------to empowering Stalin

-----------to 1920's EUGENICS German kickoff

--------------to the engineered 'Depression'

-----------------to the empowering of Hitler

--------------------to their WWII profiteering

-----------------------to their betrayal of China

--------------------------to their betrayal of Korea

-----------------------------to their handover to MAO

To 2012, and open, 'on the go' TREASON
against the American Republic and vast,
well underway ---FINAL EUGENICS

---------------THEY ARE THE POISON---------------

------------------WE ARE THEIR 'ITs'-----------------

"When you time comes
--------WHAT WILL YOU DO?"
-'IKIRU'
(Kurosawa film 1952)

---------------------------------------? ? ? ? ?

Alan Brooks| 2.11.12 @ 9:00PM

"It's not Russia that's causing tensions. It's NATO encroachment in Russia's backyard"

It is true Americans are an insular people protected by the two great oceans. Many Russians for instance can speak English, yet Americans are few who can speak Russian. Also, the attempt to place ABMs in Poland was a tip-off as to how Americans don't care about anyone but America and will act cavalierly. Bush's advisers weren't ignorant of history, they covered all the angles in meetings; they knew Russia would vehemently protest the ABMs now that nukes are the one guaranteed way for Russia to at least survive if nothing else.
I think the Bush administration wanted to provoke Russia to be able to say,
"notice how paranoid Russia is?", so as to score a few international brownie points. ceaseless international maneuvers and counter-maneuvers... what else is new?

Bob K.| 2.10.12 @ 11:43PM

After Assad and Ahmadinejad are gone is Putin supposed to be the next Bogeyman?

What the hey? Why not? We don't have any troops in Russia!

Dmitry Aleksandrovich| 2.11.12 @ 2:06AM

Putin has been the Bogeyman but that's only because he won't get on his knees and kiss Washington or Brussel's ass. Putin is not trying to resurrect the Soviet Union and I don't even believe that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (which is currently in opposition to Putin's United Russia) is trying to resurrect the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union is dead, but for some reason the anti-Soviet alliance called NATO is still alive and right on Russia's borders or damn near it (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria) with much talk of trying to expand NATO to the Ukraine and Georgia.

Bob K.| 2.11.12 @ 7:51PM

The Soviet Union dissolved because no one who lived in it believed in Communism anymore. It just didn't work. It never worked. One day Gorby and a bunch of his colleagues got together and decided to disband it. When they did it surprised the hell out of the west and we have been arguing ever since about the "real" reasons for it's demise.

Russia is always going to exercise it's hegemony over Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, Siberia and the peoples in the Steppes of Central Asia and it won't matter who it's ruler is or what the nature of it's government is.

Alan Brooks| 2.11.12 @ 9:03PM

Bob,
Capitalism is going bad , too.
Besides, America only cares about America: the Ugly American DOES exist, he is not a Unicorn or Phoenix.

Ivan Ivanovich| 2.11.12 @ 7:14AM

Anti-Putin comments by Americans consist of what shrinks call projection. Blaming Russia for what we have in the White House, a totalitarian.

Alan Brooks| 2.11.12 @ 9:07PM

I like Russia and want a better leader;
with all those brilliant guys in Russia, you can't do better than Putin? there are those with as much experience as he. To write otherwise is like saying only Gaddhafi could run Libya due to 42 years experience.

Bill in PA| 2.11.12 @ 1:42PM

Let's see....Russia cannot replace itself demographically, it has ample room and resources, Putin has to be looking south wondering when China will come to re-populate his Russia. The Russian bear will turn out to be a Panda?

Dimitry Aleksandrovich| 2.11.12 @ 2:24PM

Whites in America aren't replacing themselves demographically and neither are blacks. Face it Bill in a few decades you'll be wearing a sombrero and speaking Spanish. The population of Russia will rise again when the majority of the Russian people begin to practice Orthodox Christianity again. Then I believe there will be a population boom.

Bob K.| 2.11.12 @ 7:34PM

China has it's own big demographic crisis coming up in a decade or so thanks to Mao's one child per couple policy!

And to make matters worse the infanticide of the female babies that was the result of this policy has resulted in a severe shortage of marriageable females for the men who were born in their stead.

China has a higher percentage of it's population over age 45 than Europe and the USA does and there aren't going to be enough young people working, marrying, having children and paying the taxes required to support these old people.

Alan Brooks| 2.11.12 @ 9:11PM

Then the Chinese will adopt children. Bob, you are a de facto jingoist who underestimates other peoples.
A Chicken Little, as Reagan would say.

Alan Brooks| 2.12.12 @ 12:13AM

I have seen with my own eyes several foreign children having being adopted. Our neighbors were adoptees from Equador.
Happens all the time.
Now, I'm not exactly the most optimistic person alive, however some of you appear to enjoy sketching negative futures as scare tactic.

Martin Owens| 2.11.12 @ 7:01PM

" bring Russia back to superpower status and he will do whatever necessary to achieve that objective."

Just how will Putin do that with a shrinking population base? An economy that is a basket case? Re-establishing the Soviet Empire? With what?

The Russian armed forces are a pale ghost of what they used to be. I still remember the day I saw broadcast stories of Russian mothers coming to Chechnya to bring their boys home from the war.
My jaw still aches from how badly it hit the floor.

Russia has had it, and Putin can be as mean as he wants to be ( the real satisfaction of being an old-time Chekist at heart)- it will change nothing.

Russians are becoming extinct. So is the Caucasian race generally. But is that so bad?

Look at the bumptious self appointed liberal ruling class that has ruined personal liberty and free enterprise in the EU, the UK, the USA, Australia and Canada.

If this is the best we can do, maybe it's time for us to go.

Alan Brooks| 2.11.12 @ 9:16PM

Go! you have stayed too long. Be gone with YOU.

Alan Brooks| 2.11.12 @ 9:15PM

"If this is the best we can do, maybe it's time for us to go."

Good, then go; I want their descendants to 'even things out'.. more for them, less for your descendants- turnabout is fair play.

You want zero-sum gain?: you will be on the receiving end, the wrong end.

POST American| 2.12.12 @ 9:59PM

----Putting aside the yet unfolding aftermath
of the Wall Street/ City of London created
Soviet Union----

Elsewhere, consider this latest informed
observation on the Wall Street/ City of London
created, US taxpayer underwritten
RED China 'Mere--ICK---Cull':

"Understand, at this point RED China
has shed the communist 'mission' and
has morphed into a corporate fascism
---helmed by many of the very families
who were behind the MAOist nightmare.
--NOW, with its fierce Globalist police
state programming --and 'aggressive'
EUGENICS it resembles nothing so much
as a domesticated NAZI Germany---"

Anyone care to debate that?

NOW, key in with a
BLAST FROM THE PAST:

"The Federal Reserve has pumped
so may BILLIONS into [--NAZI--]
Germany that they dare NOT name
the total."
-US Rep. Charles McFadden
(1935)

----------------HUAC/ Nuremberg 2012---------------

-----Whenever you're ready!

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http://spectator.org/archives/2012/02/10/putins-challenge

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