RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue — the
woman who wanted to
cancel congressional elections — has decided to
cancel her own.
After signaling that she would seek a second term in 2012,
Perdue shocked the political world Jan. 26 when she
scuttled her re-election bid. The decision
has implications far beyond the confines of Tar Heel
politics.
Perdue, a Democrat and the state’s first female
governor, ranked
as one of the weakest incumbent governors this year. She rode
President Obama’s coattails in 2008 to defeat former Charlotte
mayor Pat McCrory by a whisker. Without the benefit of Obama’s
turnout machine, Perdue would have lost.
Her chances were even dimmer in 2012, so she dropped out.
Her official reason was to fight for public education, which
Democrats claim was damaged by a budget approved by the
Republican-controlled legislature last year.
“It is clear to me that my race for re-election will only
further politicize the fight to adequately fund our schools,”
Perdue said. “A re-election campaign in this already divisive
environment will make it more difficult to find bipartisan
solutions.”
It was a rationale that induced collective head scratching
across the state. Even many Democrats doubted the effectiveness of
surrendering the war to win it. But all of them are relieved that
Perdue will no longer top the ballot with Obama. Perdue has
consistently trailed McCrory, the presumed GOP gubernatorial
nominee in 2012, in recent polls. Perdue’s departure means the
gubernatorial race will be more competitive.
That’s good news for Democrats; plenty of bad news
accompanies it. Perdue’s late announcement — coming three weeks
before candidate filing begins for the primary in May — left North
Carolina’s Democratic Party in disarray. There is no presumed
successor to the governor’s office, prompting a dozen Democrats to
voice interest in the job publicly. No doubt many more pondered the
possibility privately.
The lieutenant governor’s post is seen as a stepping-stone
to the governor’s office. But the current lieutenant governor,
Walter Dalton, is a nonentity to many Democrats. Even more, his
political history has liberals wary.
Before being elected lieutenant governor in 2008, Dalton
was a moderate to conservative Democrat in the state Senate,
elected from a rural district. In 2005, he co-sponsored a
constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and civil
unions, a position that he tried
to walk back this week. The sin of
supporting traditional marriage might be too great for orthodox
liberals.
Democrats had hoped that current Charlotte Mayor Anthony
Foxx, an African American, would jump into the race. Foxx had a lot
going for him: He won a second term as mayor in November by a hefty
margin, and is seen as an up-and-coming political rock star in the
vein of Obama. His popularity in Charlotte, North Carolina’s most
populous city, would have struck a blow to McCrory. But Foxx opted
to fight another day and passed
on a gubernatorial bid.
Enter Erskine Bowles. Yes, that Erskine Bowles,
of Simpson-Bowles debt commission fame. Shortly after Perdue
announced her retirement, pundits began speculating that Bowles
might enter the race and immediately jump to the front of the
pack.
Polling backed up that assertion. A
survey by the Democratic-leaning Public
Policy Polling found Bowles and McCrory in a statistical dead heat.
That was big news: Perdue trailed the former Charlotte mayor by
double digits, and no other Democrat who would potentially run
performs well in a hypothetical matchup.
But Democrats were
dealt another blow Thursday when Bowles
announced that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s office. If he had
thrown his hat into the ring, his background, experience, and name
recognition would have made him the most able challenger to
McCrory.
That leaves two candidates who have announced so far:
Dalton, and N.C. House member Bill Faison, who hails from the
liberal bastion of Chapel Hill. Faison will make plenty of noise —
he publicly called for Perdue to forego a second term, and caught
grief from fellow Democrats for doing it — but he doesn’t have a
prayer. It remains to be seen whether Democrats will coalesce
around Dalton or opt for a more liberal alternative.
Liberals’ favorite pick would be U.S. Rep. Brad Miller,
first elected to represent the state’s 13th Congressional District
in 2002. Republicans all but drew Miller out of his seat this year,
packing the district with more GOP voters. It’s doubtful whether
Miller could be successful in a statewide campaign, though. His
politics have made him one of the most liberal white Democrats in
the South.
On the national stage, Perdue’s decision proved a bit of a
curveball to Democrats. Yes, they wanted her out of the way —
there is even speculation that Obama himself was responsible for
shuttering her re-election bid, telling her that he couldn’t win
North Carolina with her on the ballot — but this is also an
embarrassment.
When Democrats descend on Charlotte in early September for
their convention, it will be in a state where the sitting
Democratic governor is quitting due to unpopularity. That can’t
help Obama in a must-win state.
In the end, Perdue’s decision turned a competitive
election year in the Tar Heel State into a wild rollercoaster ride.
Democrats are happy that Perdue is gone, and they feel renewed
momentum going into the gubernatorial election with a fresh start.
Republicans are even more optimistic with their champion
McCrory.
It’s already a messy year. It’ll only get more
so.
