Throw Taiwan under the bus? That would be the result if a trial
balloon recently floated were to become a reality.
Paul V. Kane, a former international security fellow at
the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, last fall
published an op-ed in the New York Times in which he
made this breathtaking proposal: The U.S. government should enter
in secret negotiations with the Beijing regime for it to write off
the $1.4 trillion in debt America owes to China. That’s the “quid.”
The “pro quo” would be U.S. agreement to end arms sales and its
“current defense arrangements” with Taiwan by 2015.
That would lead to further decline in the ability of the
Republic of China on Taiwan to deter the mainland’s threats to take
over the island by force. For years, Beijing has been adding
thousands of rockets on its shores aimed at Taiwan, 100 miles away.
It has long wanted to bring Taiwan under its control. The quid
pro quo proposed by Mr. Kane, if it became a reality, could
result in the ultimate threat: join us quietly, or we’ll force you
to do so. Taiwan would have no choice.
It is unclear whether the Kane idea was floated entirely
on his own or with the support of the Obama Administration to see
if it might have “legs.” Either way, it is a bad idea.
Given the Obama Administration’s continued spending well
above the nation’s monthly income, elimination of the U.S. debt to
China would do nothing to curb its habit. On the contrary, with
debt erased, it could continue its reckless course for quite some
time without having to ask Congress to again raise the debt
ceiling. In addition, the deal would do nothing to curb American
consumers’ purchasing of electronics and household gadgets made on
the China mainland.
As for ending our defense relationship with Taiwan, that
is not easy. Mr. Kane seems to have forgotten that in 1979 Congress
passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which calls for periodic sales of
military equipment to Taiwan. Although Barack Obama seems to find
the Constitution an awkward nuisance, he cannot ignore it in this
case. The Taiwan Relations Act — a bipartisan creation — could
only be repealed by an Act of Congress.
The Obama Administration seems to be gradually reducing
arms sales to the ROC on Taiwan. Last year, after much dallying, it
denied Taiwan’s request for new F-16C/D jet fighters.
Instead it offered, among other things, upgrade packages
for its present fighters. This, after Beijing engaged in its usual
gong-banging over any military sales to Taiwan. Mr. Obama,
well-versed in the art of the kowtow, did a partial kowtow in this
case.
If the Obama Administration were to take up the Kane
proposal in earnest and if it were to become a reality, one result
would be to turn the Western Pacific into a Chinese lake. That is a
fond dream of the Chinese military and China has been cultivating
the image of itself as a great naval power in recent times (the
purchase of an aged Soviet aircraft carrier, for example, got much
media attention).
There is a better solution than the abandonment of a
friend as Mr. Kane proposes. Let the current arrangements proceed
at their own pace. On Taiwan, President Ma Ying-jeou was just
reelected for another four years. During his first term, economic
and commercial relations between Taiwan and the mainland have
improved significantly. Both sides benefit. Also, both sides have
long agreed that there is only one “China,” but they disagree about
which system is best.
Legendary Chinese patience should be allowed to work in
this case.
Meanwhile, we can reduce our debt by reducing our
spending. China has plenty of other things to worry about than an
attack on Taiwan: inflation, restive citizens, severe air pollution
— to name a few. As for the restless generals and admirals in
Beijing. let them learn a lesson in patience, too.
