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At Large
An Arrow for a Trial Balloon
Yet another way the U.S. could throw old friend Taiwan under the bus in order to win favor with Beijing.
Throw Taiwan under the bus? That would be the result if a trial balloon recently floated were to become a reality.
Paul V. Kane, a former international security fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, last fall published an op-ed in the New York Times in which he made this breathtaking proposal: The U.S. government should enter in secret negotiations with the Beijing regime for it to write off the $1.4 trillion in debt America owes to China. That’s the “quid.” The “pro quo” would be U.S. agreement to end arms sales and its “current defense arrangements” with Taiwan by 2015.
That would lead to further decline in the ability of the Republic of China on Taiwan to deter the mainland’s threats to take over the island by force. For years, Beijing has been adding thousands of rockets on its shores aimed at Taiwan, 100 miles away. It has long wanted to bring Taiwan under its control. The quid pro quo proposed by Mr. Kane, if it became a reality, could result in the ultimate threat: join us quietly, or we’ll force you to do so. Taiwan would have no choice.
It is unclear whether the Kane idea was floated entirely on his own or with the support of the Obama Administration to see if it might have “legs.” Either way, it is a bad idea.
Given the Obama Administration’s continued spending well above the nation’s monthly income, elimination of the U.S. debt to China would do nothing to curb its habit. On the contrary, with debt erased, it could continue its reckless course for quite some time without having to ask Congress to again raise the debt ceiling. In addition, the deal would do nothing to curb American consumers’ purchasing of electronics and household gadgets made on the China mainland.
As for ending our defense relationship with Taiwan, that is not easy. Mr. Kane seems to have forgotten that in 1979 Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which calls for periodic sales of military equipment to Taiwan. Although Barack Obama seems to find the Constitution an awkward nuisance, he cannot ignore it in this case. The Taiwan Relations Act — a bipartisan creation — could only be repealed by an Act of Congress.
The Obama Administration seems to be gradually reducing arms sales to the ROC on Taiwan. Last year, after much dallying, it denied Taiwan’s request for new F-16C/D jet fighters.
Instead it offered, among other things, upgrade packages for its present fighters. This, after Beijing engaged in its usual gong-banging over any military sales to Taiwan. Mr. Obama, well-versed in the art of the kowtow, did a partial kowtow in this case.
If the Obama Administration were to take up the Kane proposal in earnest and if it were to become a reality, one result would be to turn the Western Pacific into a Chinese lake. That is a fond dream of the Chinese military and China has been cultivating the image of itself as a great naval power in recent times (the purchase of an aged Soviet aircraft carrier, for example, got much media attention).
There is a better solution than the abandonment of a friend as Mr. Kane proposes. Let the current arrangements proceed at their own pace. On Taiwan, President Ma Ying-jeou was just reelected for another four years. During his first term, economic and commercial relations between Taiwan and the mainland have improved significantly. Both sides benefit. Also, both sides have long agreed that there is only one “China,” but they disagree about which system is best.
Legendary Chinese patience should be allowed to work in this case.
Meanwhile, we can reduce our debt by reducing our spending. China has plenty of other things to worry about than an attack on Taiwan: inflation, restive citizens, severe air pollution — to name a few. As for the restless generals and admirals in Beijing. let them learn a lesson in patience, too.
About the Author
Peter Hannaford was closely associated for a number of years with the late President Reagan, beginning in the California Governor’s office. His latest book is Presidential Retreats.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (9) | Leave a comment
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VonMisesJr| 2.2.12 @ 8:01AM
Considering Tiawan is among the most prosperous nations on earth, it only makes sense that a Marxist would give it over to the Chi-Coms.
Tiawan is #20 and China #52 in the rankings. (http://www.prosperity.com/rankings.aspx)
But that will probably have to wait to occur only if Obama is re-elected.
albert constantine jr.| 2.2.12 @ 9:52AM
Taiwan has also spent the last 50 plus years moving from an authoritarian to a more democratic society, which has aided its prosperity, and some of its residents (formerly of the mainland) remember what it was like to be subjected to a Communist takeover.
Sometimes I'm surprised our current POTUS hasn't led the invasion.
Gr0w1er601| 2.2.12 @ 10:34AM
Let the Taiwanese buy F-35s... Those ChiComs would LOVE that.
SUBVET| 2.2.12 @ 11:09AM
Ahhhhhh.......great memories in 1968 we were the first US war ship to enter the port of Keelung harbor since WWII. At that time we were able to tie up because we were only 312' long.
Some of the most beautiful country and I might add women as well.
Mark MacInnis| 2.2.12 @ 1:38PM
Not only do the PLAN (Peoples Liberation Army Navy) have the converted Russian carrier, they are busy building their own, having laid the keel last fall. And they are not being secretive about it. The first carrier is largely being used to train future crew and pilots.
Pointedly, the PLAN have named the carrier after a famous Chinese warlord admiral....who led an invasion fleet into the harbor of Formosa....(now Taiwan) a couple of hundred years ago. They want Taiwan BADLY.
Anyone who thinks that various scenarios to sell out Taiwan to the ChiComs....for financial gain or otherwise....by the Obama administration has left the realm of foolishness and is dwelling in the land of idiocy.
Obama will sell out Taiwan, and it will become China's version of Manhattan....just as we tell the story of how native Americans sold Manhattan to the U.S. for $23 dollars worth of beads, blankets and trinkets, future Chinese generations will tell of how they 'bought' Taiwan back from the US by selling bead, blankets and trinkets to Walmart, and cashing in their checks with the American government.
Sad. Pathetic. Tragic.
If we bail on Taiwan, how will ANY ally EVER be able to TRUST the United States again.
Thanks, Barrack. Idiot.
PolishKnight| 2.2.12 @ 4:20PM
Sadly,the worst aspect of this plan is that a trillion dollars isn't a lot of money anymore. Obama blows that much in a month like in his old crack days. Trillion is the new billion!
Ironically, our debt to China serves a deterrent purpose in that if they invaded Taiwan, we could perhaps get world sympathy in walking away from the debt. Never loan money to your enemies (or your friends.) :-)
POST American| 2.2.12 @ 10:06PM
--------------------FINAL WORD------------------------
"The social experiment in China under
Chairman Mao's leadership is one
of the most important and
'suck--cess--full' in history."
-David Rockefeller
NYT
1973
NOW reckoned to have cost 90 MILLION
exterminated ---in 'peacetime'.
-----ON this, the 'overlooked' 60th Anniversary
of the staggeringly important Korea War-------
In this, the FINAL stage, fourth decade of
the CFR-RED China handover and TREASON OP.
------------OUR REPUBLIC HAS FALLEN-----------
----While the TAX FREE Rockefeller Foundation
and their legions of other NGOs and foundations
run FREE----------in every sense of the word. . .
"Everything OLD ---is 'NEW-remburg' AGAIN."
Bob K.| 2.3.12 @ 12:53AM
What the hell, Mr. Hannaford! Mr. Kane is being stingy with our Chinese "friends."
China claims that it's territorial waters extend all the way along Vietnam, down to Brunei and up along the Philippines encompassing the Spratlys, Scarborough Shoal and the Paracels. In effect, the entire South China Sea.
Why not throw that in too? Or do you think that Mr. Kane is reserving it as a bargaining chip?
POST American| 2.3.12 @ 9:14PM
----------------------FINAL WORD----------------------
SPEAK TO --THE-- ISSUES.