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A Further Perspective
Doesn’t Look Good for Newt
He’s bound to sink further in the coming month.
ORLANDO, Florida — “We are going to win a decisive victory tomorrow with your help,” Newt Gingrich declared at a rally here on Monday night, after repeating the populist stump speech that Stacy McCain observed a few hours earlier in Fort Myers.
That didn’t happen, of course. Yesterday Mitt Romney was declared the winner in Florida as soon as all of the polls had closed. Newt’s “decisive victory” was a decisive loss, as everyone knew that it would be. (Surely, even Newt himself wasn’t delusional enough to think he’d win, merely disingenuous enough to say so.) But when he took the stage before a relatively small crowd at his election night party, Gingrich was defiant: “We are going to contest everyplace and we are going to win and we will be in Tampa as the nominee.”
AFTER HIS VICTORY IN SOUTH CAROLINA, Gingrich was leading in the Florida polls by as much as nine points. He won in South Carolina largely because voters were impressed with his performance in debates. Live by the debate, die by the debate: Newt’s lackluster performance in the two debates last week quickly drove his poll numbers south. Just as important: Advertising, the vast majority of it negative. Romney’s performance in the debates was effective in a way that observers outside of Florida may have missed: He was able to reinforce the message of the attacks in his ubiquitous ads. (Romney and his supporters outspent Gingrich and his supporters by a ratio of four to one.)
Newt’s sinking polls seemed to send his campaign spiraling out of control. The Romney strategy of sending surrogates to talk to the press at Gingrich events — “let’s go rush the quarterback,” in the words of Romney advisor David Kochel — goaded the Gingrich campaign into confrontations that reinforced exactly the narrative of an erratic, sinking Gingrich campaign that the Romney campaign wanted. A weird and unnecessary fight with the traveling press didn’t help matters.
By the end of the campaign, the Gingrich campaign was swinging wildly and desperately, hurling spurious accusations about Romney taking kosher food away from Holocaust survivors.
Can Gingrich recover, as he insists he will? This has been a volatile race, and there may still be surprises ahead. But Romney has a lot going for him. Gingrich campaign press secretary R.C. Hammond has been tamping down expectations for upcoming contests, telling CNN that Nevada, which holds caucuses on Saturday, is the “toughest one” for them to compete in. He adds that they “are not putting Michigan first” among states they can compete in; Michigan’s primary is on February 28. This makes sense; Romney won both states in 2008. (A fairly large percentage of Mormons — generally inclined to vote for Romney, their coreligionist — participate in Nevada, and older voters in Michigan still have fond memories of Romney’s father, Governor George Romney.) But it underscores the hard terrain ahead; it is not clear how Newt can build momentum as the race progresses.
Gingrich might be able to effect a shift in the narrative of the campaign with a strong debate performance, but the next debate isn’t scheduled until February 22, after caucuses in Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota, plus a non-binding primary in Missouri where Gingrich won’t be on the ballot (all his campaign had to do was submit a form and pay a filing fee, but they didn’t do it). Ron Paul has built organizations robust enough to make a strong showing in the caucus states, as has Romney. If Gingrich can’t register a win, it will be much harder to raise money, and thus harder to sustain his campaign.
Over the weekend, Gingrich suggested that if Rick Santorum drops out of the race, he can win by consolidating the anti-Romney vote. Some polls of upcoming states seem to support this theory, but tonight Romney got more votes than Gingrich and Santorum combined, suggesting that even without Santorum in the race (Paul is guaranteed to stay in), Gingrich can still lose to Romney. And unless there’s big surprise in the coming weeks, that’s most likely what will happen.
About the Author
John Tabin is a frequent contributor to The American Spectator online.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (53) | Leave a comment
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spike59| 2.1.12 @ 6:21AM
Newtie, time to pack your oversize ego in a steamer trunk and GO HOME
Vern Crisler| 2.1.12 @ 9:31AM
This claim that Newt is "erratic" or a loose canon, or whathaveyou is just trash talk from the weasels in the Romney camp. Newt made the mistake during the last 2 debates of trying to appear "presidential." These debates are key to winning, and Newt can't listen to all this trash talk. He needs to be himself. Let Newt be Newt! He'll win that way.
spike59| 2.1.12 @ 9:51AM
newtie has earned his rep as a loose cannon since first showing up in Washington and promptly stabbing Reagan in the back every chance he got
Vern Crisler| 2.1.12 @ 9:59AM
More Romney campaign BS.
Bow Tie| 2.1.12 @ 10:08AM
Newt? Too morally repugnant!
Bye-Bye, Newt.
Barbed Wireless| 2.1.12 @ 11:03AM
Newt's hypocrisy knows no bounds.
Oh, well, nothing surprising in saying that, for this statement is true of just about everyone--especially poluhtishions.
LarryK| 2.1.12 @ 3:56PM
Weasels???
You are being kind.
Jeamar| 2.1.12 @ 4:02PM
I was leaning toward Newt over Romney until Newt started bashing Romney for what amounted to being wealthy & successful and somehow being a bad example of the capitalist system. I lost all respect then and the campaign has just gotten nastier since then.
Spewt Tinglich| 2.1.12 @ 6:33AM
Say, who's that cute little red-headed pistol of a staffer over by the copy machine? Me likey!
RJ| 2.1.12 @ 6:58AM
Newt's should have stayed "relentlessly positive." I think he began to stumble when he started talking about issuing subpoenas for judges to appear before Congress. He also didn't handle Romney's negative Iowa campaign well.
Clint| 2.1.12 @ 7:22AM
We Are Being Set Up By The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The GOP Insurgency And The Tea Party Are Bein' Served Another RINO-CINO McCain Redux Crap Sandwich.
Bumr50| 2.1.12 @ 7:42AM
Yeah, he may as well throw in the towel, right???
You gotta love these blog entries that serve as nothing but reinforcement of Romney's supposed "inevitability now, "it's OVER," and "Anything more and Newt will just be hurting the party."
Please shut up.
CD File| 2.1.12 @ 8:21AM
It is over, Newt can't possibly get enough delegates. He's not even on the ballot in half a dozen states including the one he resides in. He is not popular, the only thing holding him up is the media to make their Christmas season of elections last. Just look at his thin staffing and ask yourself why his campaign collapsed the first time last spring.
Clint| 2.1.12 @ 9:47PM
Why Don't You Try To Make Me, RINO-CINO Mitten Kitten.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To Nevada & Maine.
martin j smith| 2.1.12 @ 7:44AM
Newt will not run caring about winning I suspect. he will run to make life difficult for Romney and force further vet6ing of this guy. I think Romney needs to be exposed so that his negative campaigning does not obscure the real Romney.That is my take on Newt's campaign from now on. Also he might try to gain greater influence at the convention--that too is probably one of his goals. Just guessing.
Marco2| 2.1.12 @ 8:23AM
Yep, stick a fork in him, he's done. Perhaps he and Palin can co-host a new Fox show (Moonloon and Dumbo?).
fckewe| 2.1.12 @ 11:21AM
Call it "The Midnight Ride" with Historian Sarah '6 years of college' Palin and Newt "toots his own flute" Gingrich.
Otis the Hand | 2.1.12 @ 8:37AM
The only "surprise" will be if the American people finally get that Romney is a conservative imposter who only seeks to modify ObamCare after the failed RomneyCare model. I can't believe what passes for conservatism these days.
BcdErick| 2.1.12 @ 9:00AM
This comment doesn't matter and is dumb. Romney is smart and competent. B. Hussein, on the other hand, really, really likes to take taxpayer paid vacations. B. Hussein is a disgrace. But B. Hussein is having the time of his life.
Drunken Sailor| 2.1.12 @ 9:33AM
" Romney is smart and competent"
Huh, I seem to remember hearing something like that in 08
"Obama is smart and competent"
Otis the Hand | 2.1.12 @ 11:18AM
"This comment doesn't matter and is dumb. "
Really? Your mommy lets you stay home and play on the computer?
Dmac| 2.1.12 @ 9:09AM
Americans, conservative Americans that is, do get that Romney is an imposter. Look at who votes in Florida. A state that the majorityof the population are retiree's from New York and New Jersey. They are'nt conservative. They're Nor'eastners and they vote like it. Gingrich needs to hang on and stay the course. It will turn his way.
Otis the Hand | 2.1.12 @ 11:16AM
Well, that helps explain my puzzlement a bit. I hope you are right about those demographics. On the other hand, so many people who I considered icons of conservatism are also Romneybots. It's difficult to comprehend.
Old Soldier| 2.1.12 @ 2:33PM
Here's the problem. Gingrich and Santorum aren't particular conservative either. While Romney was signing Romneycare, Santorum was voting for Medicare drug benefits with Gingrich cheering it along.
They are all the same.
Otis the Hand | 2.1.12 @ 2:53PM
Gingrich may have cheered, but he had no vote. Newt has a 90 percent ACU rating and the best conservative credentials of the bunch. Romney has more in common with Obama than he does with either of the other candidates. I realize that they all have their imperfections but... Romney? (Said with all the disgust I can muster.)
TrueBlue | 2.1.12 @ 4:27PM
Given that the Medicare bit is about the only non-conservative item that Santorum voted for, the other being that he agreed with Bush Jr. on getting Fannie/Freddie to help more people own homes, that is pretty consistently conservative. He isn't perfect, but he's a far cry better than Romney when it comes to conservative values.
Romney is consistently pro-choice, consistently anti-gun ownership, consistently big government, helped craft the precursor to Obamacare (even if it didn't turn out exactly like he wanted it). He made it quite clear in his 1994 run against Ted Kennedy that he was a Libertarian during Reagan-Bush and had no wish to return to that era, which makes two points at once. That he happily ignores the economic boom during the Reagan years (who carried 44 and then 49 states during his election runs
Butch| 2.1.12 @ 5:11PM
Also lots of Hispanics, Otis. The original core was Cuban (pretty conservative) but over the past 25 years the place has become a magnet for lots of other Hispanics as well, less conservative, probably, and more sensitive to immigration issues as well. The only "southern" part of FL is northern FL, particularly the western panhandle, loaded with military. Unfortunately, it has the lowest population. Dmac is right about the NY/NJ yankees. It's not particularly a red state, and Obama carried it in '08.
Bill| 2.1.12 @ 8:47AM
Why Gingrich lost in FL:
1. Lack of a "comprehensive strategy"
2. Lack of resources
3. Lack of organizations
4. Poor debate performance
To my surprise, Gingrich failed to get the ballot in VA, MO, TN. Is he giving up?
BcdErick| 2.1.12 @ 8:53AM
A good article. Romney and his team are just smarter than the Newt. They got into his head and coaxed him to say so many stupid things over the last few days that it is sad to watch. He'll be gone within the month.
Sandy | 2.1.12 @ 8:56AM
Gingrich is a small, bitter individual...Vitriol is his strong suite and anger and arrogance are a close second.
I supported him at one time...then he revealed himself....He will NOT make a good leader...Too much of a Napoleon complex.
Bill| 2.1.12 @ 9:38AM
Gingrich needs to "FIRED UP", revive his campaign in AZ, CO, MN, OH. He may have still some chance left.
Bill| 2.1.12 @ 10:25AM
Romney cannot defend Romneycare, neither he can outperform Obama over Obamacare in the debate, and Obama;s argument will be "Mitt, we've learned from you." The GOP voters, who voted for Romney, will be demoralized when they will watch the fading Romney in the debates and in the campaign trails. Romney wins in FL in the GOP primary, wait, Obama will wind up winning the "FL Purchase" with his "$1 billion" war-chest and an army of "union-thugs." Romney cannot win against Obama.
SUSEYQUE| 2.1.12 @ 10:32AM
In December 2011, after the group Iowans for Christian Leaders in Government requested that he sign their so-called "Marriage Vow", Gingrich sent a lengthy written response. It included his pledge to "uphold personal fidelity to my spouse".
Perhaps Callista (his 7 year mistress) should have signed it. too.
Drunken Sailor| 2.1.12 @ 11:50AM
Guess that puts him with all the other men (and women) that broke their marriage vows. It is their business, as morally wrong as it is. People may change and I'm not voting for a fidelity in chief, I'm voting for someone that can turn this country back towards it's conservtive roots.
Bill| 2.1.12 @ 11:02AM
I was born and raised in the South, and don't like the "New England Rockefeller big-government liberal RINO." Romney is the Gerald Ford, lost to Carter, it's 1976, all over.
Garfield| 2.4.12 @ 10:26PM
You shouldn't say something like that...
You shouldn't insult Gerald Ford by comparing him to Mitt Romney.
LMajito| 2.1.12 @ 11:22AM
The only reason Newt, Rick And Ronnie lost in florida is money...they don't have it and Mitt does...there were more folks that voted not for Mitt than for him...what does that say? even after spending tens of millions in air time...
folks the gop machine decided over two years ago that mitt was their man and now before our eyes is unfolding their plan...look at how they planned the primaries out...all in favor of mitt being the stud by march...even the so called 'fair and balanced' news heads have already crowned mitt the nominee which irks me quite a bit...
if he's it, then lets cancel all of the primaries, convention and go straight for the november election which obama will win hands down...
one thing folks overlook in mitt, it is quite different to run a company where you're the #1 voice and quite another run an entity where you have over 500 voices that can trump your best laid out plans...
just ask perot how fun were his attempts at presidential dreams when he ran into crowds that did not agree with him...remember that ross-al gore debate? what a catastrophe...
in a mano a mano between obama and mitt, obama will not do bad...
the best we can do now, is elect house and senate to hold the conservative agenda and forget the white house...it's gone mitt or obama will be the same...
PolishKnight| 2.1.12 @ 12:31PM
I don't get it: If the GOP establishment loved Mitt, why wasn't he the nominee in 2008? Hmmm?
Something I wonder about: I know there are conservative politicians out there and I've voted for them (such as Dana Rohrabacher) so it's strange we don't see them in the primaries. Are they perhaps not interested? Surely there has to be more of them out there. On the other hand, the Dems also seem to have problems selecting decent players. What was the deal with John Kerry? And Al Gore? They were jokes.
TrueBlue | 2.1.12 @ 4:31PM
None of them want to deal with all the political mudslinging that comes up in "Presidential" politics. Can't say I really blame them to be honest. Just look what happened to Cain, whose only "bad" point was that he worked for the Fed at one time. They couldn't find anything on him so they made it up, like the yellow journalism of old.
Seek| 2.1.12 @ 11:23AM
A question: Where does Ron Paul fit in to all this?
Oldefarte| 2.1.12 @ 11:38AM
If Romney [who is by far professionally the best candidate to effectively administer the country and avoid bankruptcy] does not demonstrate susstantially the political ability or desire to thoroughly take on Obama/Democrats and their socialistic agenda, then sadly Clit's above rat-a-tat-tatism will no doubt prove true and the Republican will lose in November!!!!!!!
somnolence| 2.1.12 @ 3:18PM
Obama may be tottering on the brink of falling off the cliff anyway before autumn rolls around, considering Eric Holder, Fast And Furious and such if Issa has his way. Anyone want to bet that Mitt won't use all that as a campaign issue? "Mr. President you tolerated a criminal for four years as Attorney General? That sir, is despicable and I'm sure the American people would like to hear your excuse right now"! He comes out of the starting blocks with something like that in pugilistic fashion, Obama will jump over the ropes.
TrueBlue | 2.1.12 @ 4:32PM
Unless the proceedings result in an impeachment trial and verdict of guilty (which they won't with a Democrat controlled Senate) people will either ignore it, or it'll backfire on whoever brings it up.
RJ| 2.1.12 @ 4:00PM
Maybe, but I remember Clinton overcoming a series of scandals, won reelection and even saw his popularity rise while being impeached for perjury and obstruction of justice. The GOP nominee should focus on the economy, which government policy has seriously damaged. That is the key issue in 2012. If the Clinton era taught us anything, it is that much of current American society do not care about corruption in government.
David| 2.1.12 @ 4:10PM
Santorum will provide the greatest contrast with Bam Bam.
Remember, Newt, Mitt, and Barack all hold the following positions.
They believe in man-caused global warming baloney, and the regulations and restrictions that have resulted from such thinking. Santorum does not.
They supported the Wall Street bailouts. Santorum did not.
They support and/or supported individual mandates for health insurance. Santorum never has.
They all criticized Paul Ryan's plan to get our fiscal house in order. Santorum embraced it.
Santorum cannot be accused of being a flip-flopper.
Santorum cannot be accused of telling people what they want to hear.
Santorum cannot be accused of stating his positions based on the particular audience in front of him.
It is clear that Santorum has been the adult in this race. It is also clear that he has been the true, principled, consistent conservative his entire politcal career.
TrueBlue | 2.1.12 @ 4:34PM
Seriously, Santorum showed some balls in NH by standing firm on his view on homosexual marriage when it's one of three states in the country to actually pass a law legalizing it.
Bill| 2.1.12 @ 4:56PM
Santorum's problems:
1. Money
2. Organization
3. lost his senate bid in 2006
somnolence| 2.1.12 @ 4:12PM
But that was then, Clinton was easier to view as a Populist, Obama isn't. Holder is an albatross around Obama and Issa will not relent. This can be included along with the economy. Romney goes on an unmerciful attack against Obama on this he wins, simple as that.
Will | 2.1.12 @ 5:52PM
Romney certainly would be the better man in the White House, I'm just afarid, he's not going to be able to stand up to the nasty juggernaut of the Chicago Machine. Will he be able to counter the non-stop race baiting and personal attacks?, will he assemble a team of the kind of attack dogs that one has to get at this gang? When he was Governor of Mass he played awful nice with the power brokers. I have serious doubts. This looks to me like four more (very hard) years.
Naturalborn Texicanette| 2.1.12 @ 6:18PM
Where is TLP when we need him??????
So many inane, incorrect, vitriolic statements being posted about Newt today......
Shesh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
POST American| 2.1.12 @ 11:21PM
---To the contrary,
as with the Bushes, and Clintons, and Gores,
and Rockefellers, in the wake of the surely
the greatest swindle, handover and deliberate
act of TREASON in history (the RED China
sellout) ----they are, one and all, free, intact,
celebrated and even at the helm.
"Unless we understand the unthinkable has
already been done to us ---we're fnished."
Unaccountable, psychopathic, plundering
USURY, TREASON and full-spectrum
----------ULTIMATE EUGENICS---------
Make NO mistrake--
----------IT'S BEEN DONE TO US-----------
Kevin| 2.2.12 @ 5:02AM
MittCare Obamney will never darken the doorstep of the White House, unless his boss Barry, gives him a public tour.
Garfield| 2.2.12 @ 4:10PM
Mitt Romney is basically trying to buy the election.
65 ads for Romney for every ad that Newt had.
The amount of money Romney spent is nothing short of ridiculous, then we have the media treating Romney with kid gloves.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know whom Obama wants to run against, and whom is the most like Obama, which is Romney.