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The Nation's Pulse

Winnemucca, Here We Come

Relief in sight for Florida.

TAMPA — This week Florida has been sunny, as usual. The Republican presidential nomination race has not. But by tomorrow Floridians can safely answer their phones again, sure in the knowledge that the caller won’t be Mitt saying what a low-life Washington Insider lobbyist Newt is, or Newt calling to say what an anti-immigrant, job destroying robber-baron Mitt is. Floridians can also watch television again without seeing endless Democratic talking points masquerading as Republican ads.

Almost all of the telephone interruptions are robo-calls. So it does the person who has just gotten up from dinner to take one no good to say into the phone: “That may be true, Sunshine. But you should hear what he just said about you.”

The Gingrich and Romney ads carry more charges against each other than it’s possible for people who have lives to keep track of, let alone intelligently evaluate. Some of the charges are legitimate. One of these being why did Newt Gingrich loot Freddie Mac instead of working for its elimination? Others not so serious, or just false. Gingrich did not resign from Congress “in disgrace.” Romney is not “anti-immigrant” (though Democrats will be happy to repeat this charge if Romney is the nominee). Nor is he a Massachusetts liberal. In the accusation derby here, Romney may have the advantage because he has outspent Gingrich by almost three to one.

Some of the charges have been downright trifling. Gingrich has even gigged Romney for hiring staffers who formerly worked for Charlie Crist, the former governor of Florida who went from RINO to independent while losing by 20 points to Marco Rubio in the 2010 U.S. Senate race and is expected to run for future offices as a Democrat. Of course Gingrich deserves any ridicule he gets for suggesting the Moon as the 51st state.

After the vote counting and the speechifying are over tonight — and almost surely after a not-even-close win for Mitt Romney — the Republican presidential road show decamps Florida for Nevada. It will be the turn of residents of Las Vegas, Reno, Carson City, and Winnemucca to avoid their phones, at least until after this coming Saturday. That’s when the Luck Be a Lady Tonight State holds its caucuses. 

Beginning Wednesday things will also likely return to what passes for normal in Florida’s hospital emergency rooms, which have been dealing with an epidemic of cases of whiplash and motion sickness on the part of Floridians trying to keep up with the polls on the Republican presidential contest. Who’s on first has been a very fluid business here, as it was in South Carolina. In late November one reputable firm had Romney with a 30 point lead here.

After his South Carolina win, Newt surged to a double-digit lead in Florida. He fell way behind Romney again after a fractious debate in Jacksonville last Thursday and after a host of national Republicans made it clear they thought Newt at the top of the ticket would be a disaster for the party and a four-year ticket back to the White House for Barack O’Barnum. National polls this week show Romney competitive with O’Barnum in swing states, Newt losing big. In at least one poll Gingrich does worse nationally against O’Barnum than Ron Paul.

Most polls Monday put Romney about 15 points ahead of Gingrich in Florida, with only a day left for the Speaker to make up ground. Santorum and Paul trailed badly. Santorum has been drawing smaller crowds than the Tampa Bay Rays do when they play the Spokane Spiders on Tuesday night. As elsewhere, Ron Paul’s supporters in Florida are intense, but thin on the ground compared to the Big Two.

Cranky, specious, or just plain silly charges aside, the candidates have had their lucid, even serious moments, both in the debates and on the campaign trail here. Florida is a big state (it has twice the population of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina put together), a swing state, and a state with political demographics (except for being somewhat older than the rest of the U.S.) very similar to those of the nation at large. Only Republicans can vote in the Florida Republican primary. 

The Republican nomination race may well go on for months. But we’ll have far better feel for the shape of it this Wednesday than we’ve had after the first three contests. Florida is not a boutique state. It’s a smaller America with more heat and humidity than most places. 

While, beginning Tuesday night, the pundits pick over the numbers that come out of Florida, the locals here will go back to answering their phones, and wish the best to Winnemucca.

About the Author

Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (17) |

obadiah| 1.31.12 @ 7:12AM

Mr. Thornberry is off message. He did not listen to Sarah. It is The Media who is to blame. (Please note that The Media has a singular form.)

Joe Gause| 1.31.12 @ 5:54PM

Media is plural; medium is singular; media are...

albert constantine jr.| 1.31.12 @ 8:45AM

Hasn't Florida done this to itself?By changing the date of the primary to increase its importance in the early running (losing half of its delegates in the process), the state party has inflicted the scourge of which Mr. Thornberry complains.

VonMisesJr| 1.31.12 @ 9:14AM

Newt consulted for Freddie Mac from 1999 to 2006, I believe. That is before the September 2008 subprime meltdown. Ben Bernenke says he didn't see it coming. Wall Street guys lost big. But Newt somehow was supposed to know it would go into receivership?
You go ahead and vote for Mitt today, Thorny. And when he tells you he could not (or would not) repeal ObamaCare, or replaces it with RombamaCare, you will get a pill instead of an operation. You won't find any smpathy here.

buckeyeman| 1.31.12 @ 10:38AM

So Newt received $1.6 million from Freddie for being a "historian"? Would Ludwig have approved of such corrupt rot? C'mon, Jr. you know better than that. Newt lied through his bought and paid for teeth when he tried to tell us that he wasn't a lobbyist and we all know it. Oh, but then NEWT didn't get the money, it went to an "entity". But who owned the "entity"? Mitt sucks, but so does Newt. There is no hope in sight and pretending that Newt in the White House would fix things is fantasy.

Dogman| 1.31.12 @ 10:45AM

Lefty Larry kowtows to the Party elite. A vote for Romney is a vote for Rombama (good name, VonM). Maybe Rom will win the general election, but more likely Bama. What kind of coat tails will Rombama bring to pull Senate candidates into office to take away the Socialist majority? Have some cojones, Conservatives!

cicero| 1.31.12 @ 10:46AM

Those pollsters who try to divine the outcome of the race between Obama and anyone else are a riot. Those won't count until the folks see the head to head contest between the eventual nominies. As far as Florida is concerned, I think the actual vote will come as a suprise to the pundits. While they think that the old folks can be easily stampeded, they fail to take into consideration that this group of oldies are more politically astute, and better educated than the succeeding generations.

RCV| 1.31.12 @ 3:48PM

That's what people whose candidate is behind in the polls always say.

John Navratil| 1.31.12 @ 4:52PM

RCV,

Absolutely, and sometimes they are correct. It has been a much more topsy-turvy primary season this time around.

Mike 3/505| 1.31.12 @ 10:55AM

"Of course Gingrich deserves any ridicule he gets for suggesting the Moon as the 51st state."

No Sir. YOU deserve ridicule for the above statement. Here's a beer bet for you Mr. Thornberry, my wager is a six-pack that within 60 minutes, there are at least 10 different reasons posted below me as to why this is a stellar (no pun intended) idea.

Regards,

Mike

Mike 3/505| 1.31.12 @ 6:56PM

I guess I owe you a six pack....lemme know where to send it. Never let it be said I don't pay my bets.

Mike

albert constantine jr| 1.31.12 @ 8:49PM

Too late to help (and only two), but the moon would have more natural resources than Washington, D.C. would have, and less difficulty than Hawaii getting a hospital birth record validated during the early era of statehood.

Mike 3/505| 2.1.12 @ 10:39AM

Al,

Thanx for the support....and I must admit...those two I didn't think of.

Regards,

Mike

ECM | 1.31.12 @ 11:55AM

George Soros, recently said this:

"Well, look, either you'll have an extremist conservative, be it Gingrich or Santorum, in which case I think it will make a big difference which of the two comes in," Soros told Reuters in a videotaped interview.

"If it's between Obama and Romney, there isn't all that much difference except for the crowd that they bring with them."

George Soros thinks Romney is about the same as Obama, and yet you clowns think he's just wonderful for prez...unbelievable.

Quartermaster| 1.31.12 @ 6:05PM

I've been saying the same thing Soros has said about Romney. There is little difference between Mittens and the Obamunist. I doubt Mittens would beat the Obamunist.

Summer| 2.1.12 @ 4:32AM

As far as Florida is concerned, I think the actual vote will come as a suprise to the pundits.
http://www.abercrombiefitchoutlet2012.co.uk

Winnemucca| 2.2.12 @ 12:32AM

Five calls tonight in Winnemucca. None answered.

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