NAPLES, Fla. — Mitt Romney’s midday rally here was over, but
most of the estimated 2,000 Republicans who had come to see the
Republican frontrunner were still milling around Sugden Plaza, many
of them pushing toward the stage to shake hands with the candidate.
Nearby, on the patio of McCabe’s Irish Pub at the corner of Fifth
Avenue, one of Romney’s supporters sporting a “Mitt for President”
button explained why she’s backing the former Massachusetts
governor.
“I believe in what he wants to do and he’s Republican and
a good man,” said the woman in gold hoop earrings, who gave her
name only as Penny. A retiree originally from Illinois, Penny was
asked her opinion of Romney’s chief opponent in Tuesday’s primary
here, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. “Don’t ask. You don’t
want to know. I couldn’t say it.”
Reporters, analysts, and commentators have offered many
explanations for Romney’s surging support in the Sunshine State.
The New York Times devoted a
1,600-word article this weekend to examining Romney’s success
in rebounding from a loss to Gingrich in the Jan. 21 South Carolina
primary, attributing it to a strategic decision to have the
mild-mannered Romney “drop his above-the-fray persona and
carry the fight directly to his opponent.” Whatever the strategic
secret, there is little doubt that it has worked. Romney, who
trailed Gingrich by nine points in a
Florida poll by Rasmussen taken Jan. 22, jumped ahead by
16 points in the Rasmussen poll taken Saturday. That kind of
25-point swing in just six days might seem unbelievable, were it
not for other polls — by
NBC News and the
Miami Herald — confirming Romney’s sudden double-digit
lead among Florida Republican voters.
One of Romney’s top advisers, Eric Ferhnstrom, gave his
own one-sentence analysis at a rally Friday in Orlando: “Newt
hasn’t won a day since he won South Carolina.” From that
perspective — viewing the campaign as a day-by-day battle — it’s
hard to argue with Ferhnstrom’s blunt interpretation. Gingrich has
been thrown on the defensive by the newly aggressive Romney
campaign, and Gingrich’s attempted counter-attacks arguably have
worsened his standing with Florida voters. On ABC Sunday, Gingrich
called Romney “blatantly dishonest” and said Romney’s character
is a “serious problem.” But does Gingrich really want to make the
Florida primary about “character”? It is difficult to imagine that
old-fashioned Republican voters here — a state
where retirees may actually be a majority of the GOP electorate —
would judge the twice-divorced Gingrich as having more “character”
than Romney, who has been married to the same woman for 42 years.
Although allegations against Gingrich by his ex-wife Marianne
apparently did not hurt him in South Carolina, it may be that
Newt’s transgressions (about which our editor R.
Emmett Tyrrell, Jr. wrote last week) are not viewed forgivingly
by Floridians.
In that sense, Romney could have been accused of making a
veiled “personal attack” during Sunday’s rally in downtown Naples
merely by introducing his own wife. “There was a time back in high
school that a girl I knew in elementary school became much more
interesting,” Romney told the crowd in Sugden Plaza. “You see, Ann
and I went to the same elementary school. She was in second grade,
I was in fourth. I didn’t notice her then. But when she was just
about 16, I noticed in a big way. We were at a party together at a
friend’s house. She had come with someone else. I went to her date
and I said, ‘Look, I live closer to Ann than you do. Can I give her
a ride home for you?’ He said, ‘Sure.’ We’ve been going steady ever
since. My sweetheart, Ann Romney.”
The implied contrast with Gingrich’s troubled marital
history was not lost on a veteran political reporter who stood near
me amid the crowded plaza. “Zing! He’s killing him,” said the
correspondent, relishing Romney’s careful rhetorical knife-work.
After Romney’s lovely blonde wife had spoken, the candidate himself
took the microphone and began laying into Gingrich directly.
“He’s now finding excuses everywhere he can,” Romney said of
Gingrich. “He’s on TV this morning going from station to station
complaining about what he thinks were the reasons he thinks he’s
had difficulty here in Florida. But you know, we’ve got a president
who has a lot of excuses, and the excuses are over, it’s time to
produce.” Romney then said, “The reason that Speaker Gingrich has
been having a hard time in Florida is that the people of Florida
have watched the debates, have listened to the speaker, have
listened to the other candidates and have said, ‘You know what,
Mitt Romney’s the guy we’re going to support.’”
And it may actually be that simple. It might also be that
affluent retirees in places like Naples, where the so-called “one
percent” come to live out their golden years in gated golf-course
communities, were offended by Gingrich’s populist attacks on
Romney’s career at the Bain Capital investment firm. Although
Gingrich backed off that line of attack after being criticized for
arguments that echoed anti-capitalist complaints of the “Occupy
Wall Street” movement, resentment may linger among upscale retirees
whose income is largely derived from investment earnings. But the
gray-haired residents of South Florida who comprise a core
constituency for Romney also keenly feel the loss of asset-value
caused by the collapse of the housing bubble. Many who are
currently “underwater” on their mortgages are worried about selling
their homes in such a depressed marked. And Romney didn’t hesitate
to remind his Naples audience of Gingrich’s connection to that
issue.
“Mister Speaker, your trouble in Florida is not because
the audience is too quiet or too loud, or because you have
opponents that are tough,” Romney said, mocking Gingrich’s
complaints about two recent televised debates. “Your problem in
Florida is that you worked for Freddie Mac at a time when Freddie
Mac was not doing the right thing for the American
people.”
Romney’s words emphasized the message of attack ads aired
in Florida both by his own campaign and by Restore Our Future, a
so-called “super PAC” that supports him. Between the two entities,
the pro-Romney effort has spent nearly $7 million in Florida,
according to the
Associated Press, more than three times the reported $2.2
million spent by the Gingrich campaign and his “super
PAC,” Winning Our Future. But if Romney wins Tuesday’s primary
here, the disproportion will be far greater than 3-to-1, because
Florida awards convention delegates on a winner-take-all basis, and
the loser will leave the Sunshine State with nothing to show for
his effort except the embarrassment of defeat.
