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At Large
Waiting for the Coup
In Pakistan, military coups are the one thing the country can rely on.
In Pakistan there is an acceptance of the necessary dominance of the military. In fact, the armed forces are about the only instrument of government on which the nation can count — at least that’s the perception that appears to prevail. As one extremely wealthy, but steadfastly anonymous, merchant recently said, “Of course the Army must get their piece of the pie, but at least you know that with them it’s always neat and orderly.” No wonder the nation is expectantly awaiting the next governmental takeover by the armed forces with a mixture of trepidation and hoped-for relief. Surprise will certainly not be part of the equation. Coup d’état time is once again on the Pakistani horizon.
It’s hard to ignore that Pakistan’s economy is in extremely bad shape. The fiscal deficit has become virtually guaranteed and support from the International Monetary Fund is just about the country’s only sure non-politically connected aid source. And then there is the custom of the last decade of depending upon American military and civilian project assistance. The whole country is virtually tied to maintenance of its military.
At the same time, graft and corruption in the civilian government lives off the “business” of foreign assistance. There appears no element in Pakistani civilian political life that does not enhance its own existence from effectively tithing the government system. When it comes to private business, the cost of normal commercial activity is always operated with a built-in enhanced price structure. This “additionality” accounts for everything from the original import gratuity at the point of off-loading of goods on up the line to the accepted amount of money to be passed to the appropriate political representative.
The cycle of civilian governments being charged with corruption to be replaced through a military coup is so regular that no matter the actual state of Pakistan’s treasury, the tendency for most observers, inside and outside government, is virtually always to be in a state of expectation of the next coup. After that seemingly inevitable event arrives, the plaintive calls begin for a return to civilian-led democracy.
Pakistan is once again at the stage of the expectant father of the birth of a new military coup. By the way, in the 64 years of existence of this Pakistan “family” there have been three coups delivered which have lasted nearly half the life of the country. To add an additional element to this dervish dance of governmental change is the now frequently touted theme of Pakistan as the future guardian of Afghanistan’s security. At least that is what the diplomats bandy about when trying to dream up explanations of the importance of Islamabad’s role in that region’s peace and security.
At the moment, Pakistan’s Supreme Court is threatening to cite Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani for contempt because he has refused to reopen a corruption investigation against President Asif Ali Zardari, who has held he has immunity against prosecution. A possible so-called “soft” coup by the military is now being discussed in the press. In this case, “soft” means an army takeover without tanks on the street but with the approval of the judiciary. Also under investigation is the allegation that an ally of Zardari sent a memo to several generals in the United States calling for assistance in curbing the power of Pakistan’s military. This not so little issue is now called “memogate” in the media. What next?
The answer to that question might involve China. The Pakistan army’s reaction to the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. special operations forces was once again to turn to their comrade from the old days when the USSR supported India and China backed Pakistan. Although it hasn’t been commented on to a great degree in the press, China and Pakistan have worked together to broaden China’s presence in the Arabian Sea. The west Pakistani port of Gwadar, just 100 kilometers from Iran, primarily has been financed by Beijing. This deep-sea port close to the Straits of Hormuz at the eastern end of the Gulf will act to support China’s naval force projection into the Indian Ocean.
A well-run Pakistani military coup in no way would be a negative in China’s plans for the region. Beijing has cemented its relationship with the Pakistan Air Force by selling it fifty J-17 aircraft and forty J-10 stealth fighter jets. This is in addition to six new submarines the Chinese will sell (at bargain prices) to the Pakistan Navy over the next decade. According to Abbas Raza, head of the Pakistan Navy, continuing nuclear technical assistance along with power plants and dams show a commitment between the two countries “to extend Pakistan’s strategic partnership with Beijing from the skies to the Arabian Sea.”
It would seem that very little is holding back the armed forces of Pakistan from returning to power other than the personal prestige and power of General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, chief of army staff, who, so far, has not provided his very necessary approval. It would appear he is awaiting some sign from the Obama Administration as to what it intends to offer. Aren’t we all, General?
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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John786| 1.27.12 @ 7:10AM
Pakistan has been bedevilled from its inception with a political elite who have absolutely no shame in bleeding the country dry. Pakistan is now run as a pretaurian state. The army taking the first bite of everything before the politicians get a chance. Add to this pakistan's non sensical approach to India. And 80s afghan war you have potent mix of instability. Then you have the 1000lb gorrilla in the rool: the US intervention in afghanistan. This has pushed pakistan over the cliff edge. The road to recovery can only begin when US adventure in afghanistan ends and new poltical leadership emerges such as imran khan. A country with so much potential destroyed by its own hands.
Alan Brooks| 1.27.12 @ 10:41AM
of course, it is a hideous third world cesspool.
Alan Brooks| 1.27.12 @ 10:43AM
... to get an idea, drive south from Brownsville into Mexico.
Moe Blotz| 1.27.12 @ 2:47PM
Matamoros vendors have some great chorizo.
Dmac| 1.27.12 @ 9:06AM
John,
"An adventure", thats what you call the U.S. presence in Afghanistan? Maybe if you're looking at it from as an ad for the army. We are in Afghanistan because their government at the time of 9-11, the Taliban gave safe haven and support to Al Qeida. As soon as we leave the taliban will once again take over and once again they will support whatever terrorist group pays them. Unlike the Soviet Union the United States does not take, keep, hold and keep an invaded country. We try to do what we went there for and leave. Pakistan, who's own worst enemy is itself and Islam has made the job of the U.S. in Afghanisrtan more difficult than it should have been. The Pakistan military and even its civilian government have for the most part done nothing but lie to the U.S. on damn near everything.
The world has and is changing because of 9-11. Islam failed to keep its hatred in their own backyard and let it lose in our yard. The wrold will never be the same. We will always, for the rest of time be fighting against Islamic extremism unless those so called peace loving Muslims can regain control of their religion. Remeber however that Islam is more than a religion, it is a culture that requires its followers to instill it in every part of their lives including their government and laws.
We will either submit to Islam one day, or we will fight it. I beleive we should fightit and fight it now as Islamic countries seem to be becoming more and more powerful. We should fight this war for what it really is, the survival of peace and democracy.
nathan| 1.27.12 @ 11:41AM
Dmac: survival of peace and democracy? The democracy that is no where mentioned in the Constitution? The democracy that the Founders to a man totally disdained? That Madison called the vilest form of government on earth? That democracy?
The problem here is that as we saw with Iraq as soon as we admitted defeat (far too late) and left, the "democratically" elected president issued a warrant for his vice president. Why? Because Islam, not being a unified religion any more than Christianity is (the fighting and turmoil and the death and destruction in Northern Ireland ring any bells to all of you in the name of "religion") the various flavors of Islam hate each other often far more than they hate us. Probably the best approach is to just get out of the area and leave them alone.
How many of you even understand the differences between Sunni and Shia? Then throw in Sufi? Then throw in the ghastly mess of things the British and French created in the middle east after Versaille because of their lust for "empire". They wanted to show how cool they were, they wanted oil, and frankly they didn't give a rat's behind who they hurt in the process. The British ordering poison gas attacks on Iraqi villages during the 20's/30's is just marvelous isn't given our obsession with WMD's later.
Point is folks, this is a whole lot more complex/complicated than most of you realize/understand. We're dealing with issues/problems going back in the case of the flavors of Islam hundreds of years, and in the case of the mess the Europeans made of the Middle East, nearly one hundred. Best advice, we don't understand most of this, don't have the knowledge to intervene intelligently, get out, stay out and quit picking fights and irritating these people for no good reason.
Dixie Pixie| 1.27.12 @ 11:41AM
Gentlemen...It is very simple, the USA has been played for fools.
Let us briefly recap.
The ISI of Pakistan created and supported the Taliban to stabilize the chaos in Afghanistan caused by the USSR Invasion and its aftermath.
The Taliban, an offshoot of the Saudi Wahhabi, gave sanctuary to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda who attacked the USA on 911.
After the USA invasion and overthrow of the Taliban Government, al-Qaeda and the Taliban fled back into Pakistan.
Pakistan played the USA for billions of dollars in foreign aid and military assistance for supposedly working as America's ally in the “War On Terror”.
The Pakistan government was keeping the Taliban and al-Qaeda alive and operational to keep the “WOT” money flowing into the Pakistan Military and Civilian Government.
After America pulls out of Afghanistan, Pakistan will help the Taliban reconquer Afghanistan to maintain Pakistani political control.
Meanwhile Pakistan will play all sides for profit.
It does not matter if there is a Military Coup in Pakistan as the Civilian Government is only window-dressing for Military control of the State and economy of Pakistan.
Dmac| 1.27.12 @ 11:56AM
I think its worse thanthat, I think we played ourselves. Our politicians look at a billion dollars the way you and I look at a dime. The difference being you and I know exactly how many dimes are in our pocket.
Nathan,The democracy that is no where mentioned in the Constitution? The democracy that the Founders to a man totally disdained? That Madison called the vilest form of government on earth? That democracy?"
Where did you get that history book you're reading from? Iran? I also think if you read the Constitution it explicitly tells us how we are to set up our voting system, how we add a congressman when the population grows and so on.
Yes, the Middle East is messed up, but it was messed up long before the Europeans ever set foot there. The sad truth about the Middle East is, it's always been messed up.
You said "
Dixie Pixie| 1.27.12 @ 5:29PM
Dmac...You are partly correct.
DOD took one look at the regional map and found there were only two ways to logistically support a large military force in Afghanistan. One is in the north using the old USSR supply lines and the other goes through Pakistan.
Naturally, DOD and Pakistan were delighted to announce that Pakistan would be a ally in the “War On Terror”.
DOD reasons was it now had a secure logistical pipeline to Afghanistan.
Pakistan's reasons were more complex,
One, Pakistan was out of America's gun sight and on the DOD payroll.
Two, Pakistan controlled America's logistics and could put pressure on America at will.
Three, Pakistan could extort graft from the shipping and could loot the shipping at will.
Four, By controlling the Taliban and al-Qaeda the Pakistan military could turn off and on the WOT to suit themselves.
Five, As a result of four, Pakistan could demand billions from DOD for their “Help” on the WOT.
The funny thing is that DOD knew all of this as it was so obvious to anyone who looked at the situation.
DOD let the fiction persist as DOD was blackmailing the American public by claiming if it was not given Trillions to fight the WOT in Afghanistan and Iraq, then al-Qaeda would fight us on American soil.
The American Empire will die as most Empires die.
We pissed it all away on unnecessary wars which had nothing to do with the nations core interests.
In that we are truly foolish and willfully blind.
Dixie Pixie| 1.27.12 @ 5:30PM
Dmac...You are partly correct.
DOD took one look at the regional map and found there were only two ways to logistically support a large military force in Afghanistan. One is in the north using the old USSR supply lines and the other goes through Pakistan.
Naturally, DOD and Pakistan were delighted to announce that Pakistan would be a ally in the “War On Terror”.
DOD reasons was it now had a secure logistical pipeline to Afghanistan.
Pakistan's reasons were more complex,
One, Pakistan was out of America's gun sight and on the DOD payroll.
Two, Pakistan controlled America's logistics and could put pressure on America at will.
Three, Pakistan could extort graft from the shipping and could loot the shipping at will.
Four, By controlling the Taliban and al-Qaeda the Pakistan military could turn off and on the WOT to suit themselves.
Five, As a result of four, Pakistan could demand billions from DOD for their “Help” on the WOT.
The funny thing is that DOD knew all of this as it was so obvious to anyone who looked at the situation.
DOD let the fiction persist as DOD was blackmailing the American public by claiming if it was not given Trillions to fight the WOT in Afghanistan and Iraq, then al-Qaeda would fight us on American soil.
The American Empire will die as most Empires die.
We pissed it all away on unnecessary wars which had nothing to do with the nations core interests.
In that we are truly foolish and willfully blind.
Martin Owens| 1.27.12 @ 2:00PM
They used to say that while most realms are countries who have armies to serve them, Prussia was an army with its own country.
Seems like that's equally applicable to Pakistan...
WillianInWien| 1.28.12 @ 12:13PM
After a number of trips to Pakistan that took me to various regions of the "country", I came away with the perception that Pakistan is not a country or a state, but rather a collection of ethnic groups and tribes that have no allegiance to the central government. The authority at the national level resides with the Army while at the regional and local level, power rests with the locals, including tribal chiefs and mullahs. The government condones corruption amongst the civil service by paying less than subsistence wages and not trying to prevent or prosecute baksheesh.
As one aged Pakistani related "We haven't had an administration since the British left." All this and nuclear weapons to boot!
POST American| 1.29.12 @ 10:14PM
During the very peak of Reagan
CON-servatism:
"America better watch it or in
a couple of decades we're going
to be a minstrel show
-----for RED China."
-Gore Vidal
1985
And NOW in 2012, as US taxpayer
bailouts fund the last of our industries
handover to the RED Chinese ----still
not quite there.
"The US has one final task
before its own takedown is
consumated and RED China
is brought in as Globalist 'model'
and 'world enforcer' ---and that's
to 'bring in' (porno/usury/ franchise
slums/ EUGENICS) the recalcitrant
Middle East--"
After our ever more sterilized
demographic exhausts itself ------
those asian-north american tunnel
complexes (Pigeon Lake B.C. and
Alaska) etc.will come wonderfully
to life-----
"There will come a day when Americans
will WELCOME foreign troops on their
soil."
-Henry Kissinger
(David Rockefeller GO-fer)
1992
-----------------------------WE'LL guess by 2015
----------------HOPE WE'RE WRONG-----------------
RETRO-active IMPEACHMENT of our past
4 traitorous CFR front op administrations.
---------------HUAC/ Nuremberg 2012---------------